76ers losing even when they win

[colincb]

FWIW Chad Ford chat from today:

Nik (Philly): If the Sixers get the top pick does it make sense for them to trade down, get a guy like Russell and another top 10 pick?


Chad Ford: They are one of a handful of teams that doesn't really need Okafor. They drafted Nerlens Noel and Joel Embiid the last two drafts and both of them are centers. I still hear that Okafor would be the guy, in part, because the Sixers aren't sold either Noel or Embiid are going to be elite players. So, I still think, as of February 5th, they'd take Okafor. But a lot can change over the next few months and, on paper, Russell is the best fit given the Sixers current personnel. They could use a terrific shooter in the backcourt and a MCW/Russell backcourt could be awesome.

If true, that's a pretty dire outcome for Hinkie.

[PickNRoll]

Chad Ford is so clueless.  How he found work writing about basketball is beyond me. The third worst team in the NBA "doesn't need" Jahlil Okafor because they have Nerlens Noel?  HA!  Celtics don't need him either.  We have GodZeller!

If Russell and MCW make an awesome backcourt, I guess it goes without saying that Russell and the 27 better point guards in the league would be even more awesome.

[celticsclay]

FWIW Chad Ford chat from today:

Nik (Philly): If the Sixers get the top pick does it make sense for them to trade down, get a guy like Russell and another top 10 pick?


Chad Ford: They are one of a handful of teams that doesn't really need Okafor. They drafted Nerlens Noel and Joel Embiid the last two drafts and both of them are centers. I still hear that Okafor would be the guy, in part, because the Sixers aren't sold either Noel or Embiid are going to be elite players. So, I still think, as of February 5th, they'd take Okafor. But a lot can change over the next few months and, on paper, Russell is the best fit given the Sixers current personnel. They could use a terrific shooter in the backcourt and a MCW/Russell backcourt could be awesome.

If true, that's a pretty dire outcome for Hinkie.

Glad to see this thread sparked such spirited debate. Larbrd it would be nice if you could just admit that your comment of MCW being statistically one of the best young players in the NBA was pretty ridiculous (I won't hold my breath) This ranks up there with your post that a 45 year old lebron will average 15 assists a game in terms of ridiculousness. By a number of statistical  measures he is actually one of the worst players in the NBA. He is shooting 27% on shots outside 3 feet? Eeesh. While I don't put a lot of stock in Chad Ford is interesting that he says the 76ers are not very high on Embiid or Noel as franchise level guys.

I wonder in particular what is happening with Embiid. If there continue to be whispers about him that are not positive, like this stuff from Ford or the article a few weeks back about him not taking conditioning seriously and being sent home from a road trip, you wonder what is going on with the dude. He was definitely the highest risk of the first 3 picks. If he doesn't pan out the 76ers are in a real rough spot.

[Waew]

Even if they dont need okafor, its not a bad idea to have 3 centers. Always get BPA

[celticsclay]

Even if they dont need okafor, its not a bad idea to have 3 centers. Always get BPA

I would be a lot higher on their team if they had managed to get wiggins in the past draft instead of embiid. Wiggins would give them a better idea of whether MCW was a starting caliber point guard. You wouldn't have the risk of a guy adjusting to the NBA on injured reserve and it would theoretically improve their offense a lot with two historically bad shooters (Noel, MCW). It would also give them a more balanced roster if they have the chance to get one of the bigs this year. Cleveland winning the lottery really screwed them. 

[tazzmaniac]

Even if they dont need okafor, its not a bad idea to have 3 centers. Always get BPA

I would be a lot higher on their team if they had managed to get wiggins in the past draft instead of embiid. Wiggins would give them a better idea of whether MCW was a starting caliber point guard. You wouldn't have the risk of a guy adjusting to the NBA on injured reserve and it would theoretically improve their offense a lot with two historically bad shooters (Noel, MCW). It would also give them a more balanced roster if they have the chance to get one of the bigs this year. Cleveland winning the lottery really screwed them.

I disagree.  I think Embiid has the most potential to be a franchise player out of anyone in the 2013, 2014 or 2015 drafts.  Scouts went to Kansas to see Wiggins but when they left they were talking about Embiid.  Coach Self thought Embiid would be the #1 pick in the 2015 or 2016 draft but he developed so well so quickly that he was on track to be #1 pick in 2014 before his injuries.  Obviously the injuries are a big risk but assuming he recovers well from them the Sixers are in great shape.  From this draft, they can add Russell, Johnson or Muiday with their 1st pick plus another good piece with the Miami pick.  In two years, Saric will probably come on board.  They've also got massive cap space to add free agents or use in trades.   

[celticsclay]

Even if they dont need okafor, its not a bad idea to have 3 centers. Always get BPA

I would be a lot higher on their team if they had managed to get wiggins in the past draft instead of embiid. Wiggins would give them a better idea of whether MCW was a starting caliber point guard. You wouldn't have the risk of a guy adjusting to the NBA on injured reserve and it would theoretically improve their offense a lot with two historically bad shooters (Noel, MCW). It would also give them a more balanced roster if they have the chance to get one of the bigs this year. Cleveland winning the lottery really screwed them.

I disagree.  I think Embiid has the most potential to be a franchise player out of anyone in the 2013, 2014 or 2015 drafts.  Scouts went to Kansas to see Wiggins but when they left they were talking about Embiid.  Coach Self thought Embiid would be the #1 pick in the 2015 or 2016 draft but he developed so well so quickly that he was on track to be #1 pick in 2014 before his injuries.  Obviously the injuries are a big risk but assuming he recovers well from them the Sixers are in great shape.  From this draft, they can add Russell, Johnson or Muiday with their 1st pick plus another good piece with the Miami pick.  In two years, Saric will probably come on board.  They've also got massive cap space to add free agents or use in trades.

if you believe chad ford (who obviously had credibility issues) you like him more than their front office does right now.

[tazzmaniac]

Even if they dont need okafor, its not a bad idea to have 3 centers. Always get BPA

I would be a lot higher on their team if they had managed to get wiggins in the past draft instead of embiid. Wiggins would give them a better idea of whether MCW was a starting caliber point guard. You wouldn't have the risk of a guy adjusting to the NBA on injured reserve and it would theoretically improve their offense a lot with two historically bad shooters (Noel, MCW). It would also give them a more balanced roster if they have the chance to get one of the bigs this year. Cleveland winning the lottery really screwed them.

I disagree.  I think Embiid has the most potential to be a franchise player out of anyone in the 2013, 2014 or 2015 drafts.  Scouts went to Kansas to see Wiggins but when they left they were talking about Embiid.  Coach Self thought Embiid would be the #1 pick in the 2015 or 2016 draft but he developed so well so quickly that he was on track to be #1 pick in 2014 before his injuries.  Obviously the injuries are a big risk but assuming he recovers well from them the Sixers are in great shape.  From this draft, they can add Russell, Johnson or Muiday with their 1st pick plus another good piece with the Miami pick.  In two years, Saric will probably come on board.  They've also got massive cap space to add free agents or use in trades.

if you believe chad ford (who obviously had credibility issues) you like him more than their front office does right now.

I don't believe Chad Ford or the Philly media.  Someone says Embiid is 300lbs and the media lemmings all go with it.  When the rebuttal comes that Embiid hasn't been above 275lbs and there are actual recent videos and photos where Embiid doesn't look overweight, the media response is rather muted.  Embiid needs to mature some but what 20 year old guy doesn't.  Philly needs to keep him in a structured environment during his recovery not send him out on the road for no good reason.  They also ought to be pushing reasonably hard to have him play some games this season.  Unless they've determined that Embiid's injuries are likely to be chronic, I'd gladly trade anyone on our roster for Embiid. 

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

I wrote and commented on a few threads earlier in the season about how bad the 76ers were and how they were an embarrassment to the league. Since starting the season 0-17 or whatever it was, they have actually played pretty competitive basketball and are now all the way up to 11 wins.

First of all Robert Covington is a 24 year old making 1 million dollars a year for 4 years shooting nearly 40% from beyond the arc...

Every shot that goes in makes him more and more valuable. Seriously, how many contenders would give up an asset for that? A LOT.

KJ McDaniels is a rookie. He's younger than MCW. So how is him contributing to winning a bad thing again? If the Sixers win more games because their rookies are "too good" then that is a good thing for them.

Nerlens Noel is absolutely a huge reason for the 76ers success. They've gone from a bad defensive team to a league average one in the span of a year and he's a major reason for that. He's already an impact defender at 20. That's incredibly rare.

You're also forgetting Jerami Grant who is way better than expected from beyond the arc and is a rookie 2nd round pick as well.

Hollis Thompson is a young guy on a cheap contract as well. If he keeps shooting well he becomes more and more valuable as a trade asset.

In short, their success has been almost entirely because of young players on long, cheap(in many cases non-guaranteed) contracts.

How is this a bad thing again?

The top 2 prospects in the draft log jam the Sixers anyways. As long as they have a top 6 pick they'll be fine. And they have Miami's 1st Rounder this year as well.

The Sixers suck.  The players you just listed suck.  But they don't suck enough to fulfill Philly's plan to have the worst record in the league again.

Again, the Sixers are worse than the Celtics and it's not accurately reflected in just wins and losses.  Look at the point differential for each team.  And while Philly does have two picks from last draft that have yet to play, Boston has at least 7 first rounders in the next 4 drafts.

Mike

Scorching hottake from a guy who has no idea what he's talking about.

The Sixers suck because they're young, and they flat out don't care about roster construction whatsoever. Young players, in general, are not contributors to good teams. Hell Anthony Davis probably wasn't a net positive for his team as a rookie.

Robert Covington does not suck, and his contract is unreal. If you want to find a 24 yr old 40% 3 pt shooter who can swing between 3/4 and has a 4 yr 4 million dollar per year deal anywhere else in the league be my guest. There aren't a whole lot of guys that cheap who can shoot and play respectable defense.

Nerlens Noel is probably the best defensive rookie since Duncan was a rook. He's already defending the rim as well as guys like Duncan, Sanders, Howard, Drummond, the Gasols, Cousins, etc. 

Covington isn't an actual NBA player.  He's a YMCA player who can knock down an NBA 3 on occasion.  His defense is not respectable and he shot 38% on college 3's his senior year.  Not bad, for college, but let's not endow him with the Reggie Miller Award.  If it weren't for Hinkiefication, he'd be flipping burgers.

Anthony Davis, meanwhile, had a PER of 21.7 as a rookie (up to 32! now), which basically makes him the best player since Wilt Chamberlain.  It's ridiculous to even mention them on the same web page.

If you want cheap players who can shoot better than covington and not submarine your team, try Jared Dudley, Anthony Morrow, Danny Green, Wesley Matthews, etc.  Covington couldn't earn 1 minute of playing time on ANY Western Conference contender.

Anthony Davis was a 13 andn 8 guy who had a ton of highlights and played horrendous team defense. Everybody knew he was a monster, but he was far from a good player.

You're actually saying that Anthony Davis isn't a good player?  I'll just stop right there.  You win.

Can you please quote where I said that? It's like people don't even read the posts they respond to.

You do realize was and is are not the same word right? Anthony Davis is a great basketball player. Anthony Davis was an average basketball player as a rookie. Possibly slightly above average.

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

Some people scoff at the way Philly is being built.  I think it's amazing.  Hinkie is running his team like I'd run it playing NBA 2k15... dump everyone for draft picks and cap space, tank for a few years, try to land phenom prospects... sim a few years and you have a dynasty.  It's ridiculous.  You'd never expect a real team to do that, because they have tickets to sell and they can't just click "Sim to next season".  Philly is actually doing it.  Lol.

I get that people think that's absurd and that this could all bust horribly.  Sure... it's a risk.  I remember thinking Eddie Curry, Tyson Chandler and Ty Thomas was an amazing young core for Chicago.  That didn't work either.

That said, they have a really impressive young core.

MCW - Solid young PG.  One of the best young players in the league statistically

Noel - He's legit.  His numbers aren't that far off from young KG and young Anthony Davis.   I don't get why people are down on him.  He's coming off major surgery, he's 20 years old, and he's averaging 8 points 7 rebounds, 1.7 blocks and 1.6 steals in 30mpg.   He's probably a better prospect than anyone on the entire Celtic team.  A legit defensive center.   Based on the progression of other elite prospects like him, I think it's perfectly reasonable to expect him to average 15, 10, 3 and 2 within a couple seasons.

Embiid - Widely thought to be the best prospect in the 2014 draft.  Some even suggested the Cavs should have taken him #1 in spite of his injury.  Thought to be a dominant two-way big man.   Kid is a potential game-changer.  They are comparing him to Hakeem with a straight face.   I know people unfairly expect Oden, but but aside from Oden there are only a handful of bigs I've seen get the insane hype treatment... Yao Ming, Dwight Howard, Blake Griffin and Anthony Davis.   I heard some folks very high on Andre Drummond's boom/bust potential.   It's not like every super-hyped big fails... there is actually a pretty solid track record for ultra-hyped bigs like Embiid.

Saric - Don't know much about him, but some say he's got elite Dirk-level potential.

Whoever they take top 5 this year - Could be another elite prospect

Few other guys on that team that have some potential.  Wroten seems solid.   KJ McDaniels seems ok.   Jerami Grant is someone David Thorpe was ga-ga over prior to the draft (and felt should have been taken late 1st) and has recently been living up to THrope's hype.  Apparently a very hard worker.  He's been a top 10 rookie over the past month.  A  few people have said he has the potential (same body size/athleticism/work ethic) to be the next Kawhi Leonard.

That team is loaded with youth.  It's a fascinating situation to watch.  I'm still a little jealous.  Marcus Smart looks ok, but I'm not sure he has all-star potential.  Outside of him, our current prospects are pretty mediocre.  Sully is aiight.   Oly has some game.  Young might have a future.

I know a lot of talent evaluation is opinion with players based early in their career. Some people are high on Noel others are low. However, you can't really say with a straight face that MCW is statistically one of the best young players in the game. He shoots 38% from the field as a point guard and 25% on 3's (despite taking 3 a game) and is second in the league in turnovers at 4.2. 15 points, 7 assists and 6 rebounds are nice, but not at that efficiency level. We could easily name a lot of top young players with better overall statistics. They have also floated him in trade deals, so the 76ers may not even view him as a foundation piece themselves.

So he's basically a rich man's/much younger Rajon Rondo

At 23, Rondo's PER was about 19.  MCW is 23 and his PER this season is 12.9.  MCW is closer to Evan Turner than Rajon Rondo.

Mike

His PER surrounded by hall of fame talent was 19 for a single season... his rookie season his PER was 13.  His per last season was 14.  His per in Dallas is 12.4.   Rondo is closer to Evan Turner than Rondo. 

23 year old MCW > 28 year old Rondo

Not really, though.  Rondo is averaging 9 points, 6.5 assists, 5 rebounds and 1.5 steals on 40% (26% from FT) since joining Dallas, but I imagine he'll improve slightly.  Or maybe not.

MCW’s career stats have a long ways to go to catch up with Rondo. Rondo's PER was higher during his first 2 years, considerably higher over his career, and higher even this year. Otherwise, MCW’s offensive game is similar to Rondo’s except he turns over the ball a lot more. Good defender and rebounder like Rondo though. Poor man’s Rondo is a pretty apt description for MCW at the same point in their respective careers.

In any case, you claimed MCW was one of the best young players in the NBA statistically. He is not close. Among players aged 24 years and younger who average at least 24 MPG, MCW is 55th of 57 players based on TS% and 42nd based on PER.  MCW also is 2nd among all players in the NBA in turnovers per game. 
 
My guess is that he is a poor man’s D. Jordan long-term.

He's already a better defender than DeAndre Jordan...