76ers losing even when they win

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

I wrote and commented on a few threads earlier in the season about how bad the 76ers were and how they were an embarrassment to the league. Since starting the season 0-17 or whatever it was, they have actually played pretty competitive basketball and are now all the way up to 11 wins.

While this cuts to the core of some of the debates surrounding the celtics, is this their worst nightmare? If the season ended today they would have the 3rd worst record and have about a 50% chance on missing out on a top 3 pick. After stashing one first rounder overseas (Saric) and having another spend the season  on IR, that has to be an absolute nightmare for the 76ers.

While it would be good if they were winning because Michael Carter Williams appeared elite or Noel was averaging 13 rebounds and 4 blocks, this hasn't been the case. They have had surprising performances from guys like Henry Sims, Robert Covington and to a lesser extent KJ McDaniels. I am not sure any of these guys projects to be more than an 8th or 9th man on a decent team, so getting some wins with them playing well seems pretty bad. Thoughts?

First of all Robert Covington is a 24 year old making 1 million dollars a year for 4 years shooting nearly 40% from beyond the arc...

Every shot that goes in makes him more and more valuable. Seriously, how many contenders would give up an asset for that? A LOT.

KJ McDaniels is a rookie. He's younger than MCW. So how is him contributing to winning a bad thing again? If the Sixers win more games because their rookies are "too good" then that is a good thing for them.

Nerlens Noel is absolutely a huge reason for the 76ers success. They've gone from a bad defensive team to a league average one in the span of a year and he's a major reason for that. He's already an impact defender at 20. That's incredibly rare.

You're also forgetting Jerami Grant who is way better than expected from beyond the arc and is a rookie 2nd round pick as well.

Hollis Thompson is a young guy on a cheap contract as well. If he keeps shooting well he becomes more and more valuable as a trade asset.

In short, their success has been almost entirely because of young players on long, cheap(in many cases non-guaranteed) contracts.

How is this a bad thing again?

The top 2 prospects in the draft log jam the Sixers anyways. As long as they have a top 6 pick they'll be fine. And they have Miami's 1st Rounder this year as well.

[MBunge]

I wrote and commented on a few threads earlier in the season about how bad the 76ers were and how they were an embarrassment to the league. Since starting the season 0-17 or whatever it was, they have actually played pretty competitive basketball and are now all the way up to 11 wins.

While this cuts to the core of some of the debates surrounding the celtics, is this their worst nightmare? If the season ended today they would have the 3rd worst record and have about a 50% chance on missing out on a top 3 pick. After stashing one first rounder overseas (Saric) and having another spend the season  on IR, that has to be an absolute nightmare for the 76ers.

While it would be good if they were winning because Michael Carter Williams appeared elite or Noel was averaging 13 rebounds and 4 blocks, this hasn't been the case. They have had surprising performances from guys like Henry Sims, Robert Covington and to a lesser extent KJ McDaniels. I am not sure any of these guys projects to be more than an 8th or 9th man on a decent team, so getting some wins with them playing well seems pretty bad. Thoughts?

First of all Robert Covington is a 24 year old making 1 million dollars a year for 4 years shooting nearly 40% from beyond the arc...

Every shot that goes in makes him more and more valuable. Seriously, how many contenders would give up an asset for that? A LOT.

KJ McDaniels is a rookie. He's younger than MCW. So how is him contributing to winning a bad thing again? If the Sixers win more games because their rookies are "too good" then that is a good thing for them.

Nerlens Noel is absolutely a huge reason for the 76ers success. They've gone from a bad defensive team to a league average one in the span of a year and he's a major reason for that. He's already an impact defender at 20. That's incredibly rare.

You're also forgetting Jerami Grant who is way better than expected from beyond the arc and is a rookie 2nd round pick as well.

Hollis Thompson is a young guy on a cheap contract as well. If he keeps shooting well he becomes more and more valuable as a trade asset.

In short, their success has been almost entirely because of young players on long, cheap(in many cases non-guaranteed) contracts.

How is this a bad thing again?

The top 2 prospects in the draft log jam the Sixers anyways. As long as they have a top 6 pick they'll be fine. And they have Miami's 1st Rounder this year as well.

The Sixers suck.  The players you just listed suck.  But they don't suck enough to fulfill Philly's plan to have the worst record in the league again.

Again, the Sixers are worse than the Celtics and it's not accurately reflected in just wins and losses.  Look at the point differential for each team.  And while Philly does have two picks from last draft that have yet to play, Boston has at least 7 first rounders in the next 4 drafts.

Mike

[PickNRoll]

I have to give Brett Brown some credit.  He still has the kids playing hard even though they were sent on a "suicide mission" by the front office.  They can be frisky on defense once in a while.

[MBunge]

Some people scoff at the way Philly is being built.  I think it's amazing.  Hinkie is running his team like I'd run it playing NBA 2k15... dump everyone for draft picks and cap space, tank for a few years, try to land phenom prospects... sim a few years and you have a dynasty.  It's ridiculous.  You'd never expect a real team to do that, because they have tickets to sell and they can't just click "Sim to next season".  Philly is actually doing it.  Lol.

I get that people think that's absurd and that this could all bust horribly.  Sure... it's a risk.  I remember thinking Eddie Curry, Tyson Chandler and Ty Thomas was an amazing young core for Chicago.  That didn't work either.

That said, they have a really impressive young core.

MCW - Solid young PG.  One of the best young players in the league statistically

Noel - He's legit.  His numbers aren't that far off from young KG and young Anthony Davis.   I don't get why people are down on him.  He's coming off major surgery, he's 20 years old, and he's averaging 8 points 7 rebounds, 1.7 blocks and 1.6 steals in 30mpg.   He's probably a better prospect than anyone on the entire Celtic team.  A legit defensive center.   Based on the progression of other elite prospects like him, I think it's perfectly reasonable to expect him to average 15, 10, 3 and 2 within a couple seasons.

Embiid - Widely thought to be the best prospect in the 2014 draft.  Some even suggested the Cavs should have taken him #1 in spite of his injury.  Thought to be a dominant two-way big man.   Kid is a potential game-changer.  They are comparing him to Hakeem with a straight face.   I know people unfairly expect Oden, but but aside from Oden there are only a handful of bigs I've seen get the insane hype treatment... Yao Ming, Dwight Howard, Blake Griffin and Anthony Davis.   I heard some folks very high on Andre Drummond's boom/bust potential.   It's not like every super-hyped big fails... there is actually a pretty solid track record for ultra-hyped bigs like Embiid.

Saric - Don't know much about him, but some say he's got elite Dirk-level potential.

Whoever they take top 5 this year - Could be another elite prospect

Few other guys on that team that have some potential.  Wroten seems solid.   KJ McDaniels seems ok.   Jerami Grant is someone David Thorpe was ga-ga over prior to the draft (and felt should have been taken late 1st) and has recently been living up to THrope's hype.  Apparently a very hard worker.  He's been a top 10 rookie over the past month.  A  few people have said he has the potential (same body size/athleticism/work ethic) to be the next Kawhi Leonard.

That team is loaded with youth.  It's a fascinating situation to watch.  I'm still a little jealous.  Marcus Smart looks ok, but I'm not sure he has all-star potential.  Outside of him, our current prospects are pretty mediocre.  Sully is aiight.   Oly has some game.  Young might have a future.

I know a lot of talent evaluation is opinion with players based early in their career. Some people are high on Noel others are low. However, you can't really say with a straight face that MCW is statistically one of the best young players in the game. He shoots 38% from the field as a point guard and 25% on 3's (despite taking 3 a game) and is second in the league in turnovers at 4.2. 15 points, 7 assists and 6 rebounds are nice, but not at that efficiency level. We could easily name a lot of top young players with better overall statistics. They have also floated him in trade deals, so the 76ers may not even view him as a foundation piece themselves.

So he's basically a rich man's/much younger Rajon Rondo

At 23, Rondo's PER was about 19.  MCW is 23 and his PER this season is 12.9.  MCW is closer to Evan Turner than Rajon Rondo.

Mike

[PickNRoll]

Closer to Orien Green than Rondo.

[tazzmaniac]

Quite the contrarian.  6ers have been slotted in the 3rd pick after 14 of their last 16 games.  It felt like the 3rd slot would be better in my example than the 2nd slot.

I mean I guess what we both said was true. I looked at the standings and saw they passed the knicks yesterday with their win. It is also true that they have actually held the 3rd position for the majority of the past couple of weeks. Nobody really addressed my key point, which was that they are failing at their GMs goal. As Larbrd put it, they are trying to SIM to next season, but are now in danger of get a 4th, 5th, or 6th pick instead of the 1st or 2nd. Charts aside, that is a potentially really big difference (much like the drop off from 3 to 4 last year). I have a Philly friend that was actually really on board with the Tank and is getting pretty disappointed in their winning ways.

You're Philly friend ought to be ecstatic.  They already have Embiid and Saric in the bag.  I'm not as high on Noel and MCW but they are still pretty good assets.  I think there is a solid top 5 (Okafor, Mudiay, Johnson, Russell and Towns) this year before the drop off and Philly should get a top 5 pick.  To top it off, they only have 14.5M committed next year so they can go hard for free agents.  Hinke has done a masterful job so far.

I think Saric is going to be a real player.  He's a tough dude, fierce competitor, and has enough size and strength to play with the big boys.  I'd love to pry him away from Hinkie somehow.  I think Hinkie NAILED this last draft.  Strangely, I don't care for MCW or Noel at all.

Do you see Saric primarily as an SF or PF in the NBA?  I like Noel as good or better than any of our bigs.  At worst he'll be a very good defensive big of the bench.  I tend to agree with you about MCW but he does put up numbers across the board.  In a couple years on a better Sixers team, he could fit better as a 4th or 5th option. 

[colincb]

Of 183 NBA players who have played 24 or more minutes per game, MCW is in the bottom 2%in TS%, Noel is in the bottom 4% in TS%, Mbah a Moute is in the bottom 9% in TS% and KJ McDaniels is in the  bottom 15% in TS%.  They are the top four players in minutes on the Sixers.  None of them can shoot.

Saric and Embiid have yet to play an NBA game.

[tazzmaniac]

I wrote and commented on a few threads earlier in the season about how bad the 76ers were and how they were an embarrassment to the league. Since starting the season 0-17 or whatever it was, they have actually played pretty competitive basketball and are now all the way up to 11 wins.

While this cuts to the core of some of the debates surrounding the celtics, is this their worst nightmare? If the season ended today they would have the 3rd worst record and have about a 50% chance on missing out on a top 3 pick. After stashing one first rounder overseas (Saric) and having another spend the season  on IR, that has to be an absolute nightmare for the 76ers.

While it would be good if they were winning because Michael Carter Williams appeared elite or Noel was averaging 13 rebounds and 4 blocks, this hasn't been the case. They have had surprising performances from guys like Henry Sims, Robert Covington and to a lesser extent KJ McDaniels. I am not sure any of these guys projects to be more than an 8th or 9th man on a decent team, so getting some wins with them playing well seems pretty bad. Thoughts?

First of all Robert Covington is a 24 year old making 1 million dollars a year for 4 years shooting nearly 40% from beyond the arc...

Every shot that goes in makes him more and more valuable. Seriously, how many contenders would give up an asset for that? A LOT.

KJ McDaniels is a rookie. He's younger than MCW. So how is him contributing to winning a bad thing again? If the Sixers win more games because their rookies are "too good" then that is a good thing for them.

Nerlens Noel is absolutely a huge reason for the 76ers success. They've gone from a bad defensive team to a league average one in the span of a year and he's a major reason for that. He's already an impact defender at 20. That's incredibly rare.

You're also forgetting Jerami Grant who is way better than expected from beyond the arc and is a rookie 2nd round pick as well.

Hollis Thompson is a young guy on a cheap contract as well. If he keeps shooting well he becomes more and more valuable as a trade asset.

In short, their success has been almost entirely because of young players on long, cheap(in many cases non-guaranteed) contracts.

How is this a bad thing again?

The top 2 prospects in the draft log jam the Sixers anyways. As long as they have a top 6 pick they'll be fine. And they have Miami's 1st Rounder this year as well.

The Sixers suck.  The players you just listed suck.  But they don't suck enough to fulfill Philly's plan to have the worst record in the league again.

Again, the Sixers are worse than the Celtics and it's not accurately reflected in just wins and losses.  Look at the point differential for each team.  And while Philly does have two picks from last draft that have yet to play, Boston has at least 7 first rounders in the next 4 drafts.

Mike

As RAAAAAAANDY pointed out, the Sixers also have the Miami 1st which at worst will be the 16th pick but could end up being a lottery pick. So their two picks this year are much better than our two picks.  Next year chances are likely that the Sixers will still finish as one of the worst teams in the league.  With their existing players, I like their position much better than ours.  Of course that hinges on Embiid fully recovering from his injuries. 

I'm not sure why you bring up wins and point differentials.  It is meaningless.  Philly management has been trying to tank from before the season started while the Celtics have actually been trying to win. 

[PickNRoll]

Quite the contrarian.  6ers have been slotted in the 3rd pick after 14 of their last 16 games.  It felt like the 3rd slot would be better in my example than the 2nd slot.

I mean I guess what we both said was true. I looked at the standings and saw they passed the knicks yesterday with their win. It is also true that they have actually held the 3rd position for the majority of the past couple of weeks. Nobody really addressed my key point, which was that they are failing at their GMs goal. As Larbrd put it, they are trying to SIM to next season, but are now in danger of get a 4th, 5th, or 6th pick instead of the 1st or 2nd. Charts aside, that is a potentially really big difference (much like the drop off from 3 to 4 last year). I have a Philly friend that was actually really on board with the Tank and is getting pretty disappointed in their winning ways.

You're Philly friend ought to be ecstatic.  They already have Embiid and Saric in the bag.  I'm not as high on Noel and MCW but they are still pretty good assets.  I think there is a solid top 5 (Okafor, Mudiay, Johnson, Russell and Towns) this year before the drop off and Philly should get a top 5 pick.  To top it off, they only have 14.5M committed next year so they can go hard for free agents.  Hinke has done a masterful job so far.

I think Saric is going to be a real player.  He's a tough dude, fierce competitor, and has enough size and strength to play with the big boys.  I'd love to pry him away from Hinkie somehow.  I think Hinkie NAILED this last draft.  Strangely, I don't care for MCW or Noel at all.

Do you see Saric primarily as an SF or PF in the NBA?  I like Noel as good or better than any of our bigs.  At worst he'll be a very good defensive big of the bench.  I tend to agree with you about MCW but he does put up numbers across the board.  In a couple years on a better Sixers team, he could fit better as a 4th or 5th option.

I see him as a Power (capital P) forward, in the mold of Blake Griffin.  Not half as athletic, obviously, so no lob city, but he can thrive on strong takes within 18 feet.  He's savvy, good fundamentals, boxes out, controls space, looks for an advantage every second of the game, seems humble and coachable.  Out works most guys.  He can also stretch it all the way out to the 3 point line.  Dare I mention The Legend?  I think that's who Saric should pattern his game after, but if you wanna keep it terrestrial, I'd say he could be a rich man's Mirotic.  I think he'll be a force on the offensive glass, an efficient, versatile scorer, and he really doesn't take anything OFF the table.

[tazzmaniac]

Of 183 NBA players who have played 24 or more minutes per game, MCW is in the bottom 2%in TS%, Noel is in the bottom 4% in TS%, Mbah a Moute is in the bottom 9% in TS% and KJ McDaniels is in the  bottom 15% in TS%.  They are the top four players in minutes on the Sixers.  None of them can shoot.

Saric and Embiid have yet to play an NBA game.

So what?  The Sixers deliberately got rid of their veteran talent to tank hard.  Having good shooters/scorers on the roster right now would cost them losses.  A very inefficient offense suits their purposes just fine. 

[PickNRoll]

Of 183 NBA players who have played 24 or more minutes per game, MCW is in the bottom 2%in TS%, Noel is in the bottom 4% in TS%, Mbah a Moute is in the bottom 9% in TS% and KJ McDaniels is in the  bottom 15% in TS%.  They are the top four players in minutes on the Sixers.  None of them can shoot.

Saric and Embiid have yet to play an NBA game.

So what?  The Sixers deliberately got rid of their veteran talent to tank hard.  Having good shooters/scorers on the roster right now would cost them losses.  A very inefficient offense suits their purposes just fine.

He didn't say anything about tanking.  I think he's responding to the "MCW is the next Earvin Johnson" crowd.  The "Rich man's Rondo".

[colincb]

Of 183 NBA players who have played 24 or more minutes per game, MCW is in the bottom 2%in TS%, Noel is in the bottom 4% in TS%, Mbah a Moute is in the bottom 9% in TS% and KJ McDaniels is in the  bottom 15% in TS%.  They are the top four players in minutes on the Sixers.  None of them can shoot.

Saric and Embiid have yet to play an NBA game.

So what?  The Sixers deliberately got rid of their veteran talent to tank hard.  Having good shooters/scorers on the roster right now would cost them losses.  A very inefficient offense suits their purposes just fine.

So they're developing guys that cannot shoot or are they getting rid of these stiffs as soon as Embiid gets healthy and Saric-Dirk-Griffin takes the NBA by storm?

[tazzmaniac]

Quite the contrarian.  6ers have been slotted in the 3rd pick after 14 of their last 16 games.  It felt like the 3rd slot would be better in my example than the 2nd slot.

I mean I guess what we both said was true. I looked at the standings and saw they passed the knicks yesterday with their win. It is also true that they have actually held the 3rd position for the majority of the past couple of weeks. Nobody really addressed my key point, which was that they are failing at their GMs goal. As Larbrd put it, they are trying to SIM to next season, but are now in danger of get a 4th, 5th, or 6th pick instead of the 1st or 2nd. Charts aside, that is a potentially really big difference (much like the drop off from 3 to 4 last year). I have a Philly friend that was actually really on board with the Tank and is getting pretty disappointed in their winning ways.

You're Philly friend ought to be ecstatic.  They already have Embiid and Saric in the bag.  I'm not as high on Noel and MCW but they are still pretty good assets.  I think there is a solid top 5 (Okafor, Mudiay, Johnson, Russell and Towns) this year before the drop off and Philly should get a top 5 pick.  To top it off, they only have 14.5M committed next year so they can go hard for free agents.  Hinke has done a masterful job so far.

I think Saric is going to be a real player.  He's a tough dude, fierce competitor, and has enough size and strength to play with the big boys.  I'd love to pry him away from Hinkie somehow.  I think Hinkie NAILED this last draft.  Strangely, I don't care for MCW or Noel at all.

Do you see Saric primarily as an SF or PF in the NBA?  I like Noel as good or better than any of our bigs.  At worst he'll be a very good defensive big of the bench.  I tend to agree with you about MCW but he does put up numbers across the board.  In a couple years on a better Sixers team, he could fit better as a 4th or 5th option.

I see him as a Power (capital P) forward, in the mold of Blake Griffin.  Not half as athletic, obviously, so no lob city, but he can thrive on strong takes within 18 feet.  He's savvy, good fundamentals, boxes out, controls space, looks for an advantage every second of the game, seems humble and coachable.  Out works most guys.  He can also stretch it all the way out to the 3 point line.  Dare I mention The Legend?  I think that's who Saric should pattern his game after, but if you wanna keep it terrestrial, I'd say he could be a rich man's Mirotic.  I think he'll be a force on the offensive glass, an efficient, versatile scorer, and he really doesn't take anything OFF the table.

I'll disregard "The Legend" reference but otherwise I think we're in sync.  He seems like a good fit with Embiid.  If they get Johnson in the draft, those three could be a heck of a front court in a few years.     

[PickNRoll]

Quite the contrarian.  6ers have been slotted in the 3rd pick after 14 of their last 16 games.  It felt like the 3rd slot would be better in my example than the 2nd slot.

I mean I guess what we both said was true. I looked at the standings and saw they passed the knicks yesterday with their win. It is also true that they have actually held the 3rd position for the majority of the past couple of weeks. Nobody really addressed my key point, which was that they are failing at their GMs goal. As Larbrd put it, they are trying to SIM to next season, but are now in danger of get a 4th, 5th, or 6th pick instead of the 1st or 2nd. Charts aside, that is a potentially really big difference (much like the drop off from 3 to 4 last year). I have a Philly friend that was actually really on board with the Tank and is getting pretty disappointed in their winning ways.

You're Philly friend ought to be ecstatic.  They already have Embiid and Saric in the bag.  I'm not as high on Noel and MCW but they are still pretty good assets.  I think there is a solid top 5 (Okafor, Mudiay, Johnson, Russell and Towns) this year before the drop off and Philly should get a top 5 pick.  To top it off, they only have 14.5M committed next year so they can go hard for free agents.  Hinke has done a masterful job so far.

I think Saric is going to be a real player.  He's a tough dude, fierce competitor, and has enough size and strength to play with the big boys.  I'd love to pry him away from Hinkie somehow.  I think Hinkie NAILED this last draft.  Strangely, I don't care for MCW or Noel at all.

Do you see Saric primarily as an SF or PF in the NBA?  I like Noel as good or better than any of our bigs.  At worst he'll be a very good defensive big of the bench.  I tend to agree with you about MCW but he does put up numbers across the board.  In a couple years on a better Sixers team, he could fit better as a 4th or 5th option.

I see him as a Power (capital P) forward, in the mold of Blake Griffin.  Not half as athletic, obviously, so no lob city, but he can thrive on strong takes within 18 feet.  He's savvy, good fundamentals, boxes out, controls space, looks for an advantage every second of the game, seems humble and coachable.  Out works most guys.  He can also stretch it all the way out to the 3 point line.  Dare I mention The Legend?  I think that's who Saric should pattern his game after, but if you wanna keep it terrestrial, I'd say he could be a rich man's Mirotic.  I think he'll be a force on the offensive glass, an efficient, versatile scorer, and he really doesn't take anything OFF the table.

I'll disregard "The Legend" reference but otherwise I think we're in sync.  He seems like a good fit with Embiid.  If they get Johnson in the draft, those three could be a heck of a front court in a few years.     

I just said that Larry is the guy he should try to emulate.

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

Of 183 NBA players who have played 24 or more minutes per game, MCW is in the bottom 2%in TS%, Noel is in the bottom 4% in TS%, Mbah a Moute is in the bottom 9% in TS% and KJ McDaniels is in the  bottom 15% in TS%.  They are the top four players in minutes on the Sixers.  None of them can shoot.

Saric and Embiid have yet to play an NBA game.

So what?  The Sixers deliberately got rid of their veteran talent to tank hard.  Having good shooters/scorers on the roster right now would cost them losses.  A very inefficient offense suits their purposes just fine.

So they're developing guys that cannot shoot or are they getting rid of these stiffs as soon as Embiid gets healthy and Saric-Dirk-Griffin takes the NBA by storm?

KJ McDaniels and Nerlens Noel were drafted almost entirely because of their defensive abilities.

Not to mention shooting is one of the few important NBA skills that at least has a pattern of being teachable. You can't teach somebody to be as athletic as those two. There both plus individual defenders as rookies which is pretty rare.