76ers losing even when they win

[celticsclay]

I wrote and commented on a few threads earlier in the season about how bad the 76ers were and how they were an embarrassment to the league. Since starting the season 0-17 or whatever it was, they have actually played pretty competitive basketball and are now all the way up to 11 wins.

While this cuts to the core of some of the debates surrounding the celtics, is this their worst nightmare? If the season ended today they would have the 3rd worst record and have about a 50% chance on missing out on a top 3 pick. After stashing one first rounder overseas (Saric) and having another spend the season  on IR, that has to be an absolute nightmare for the 76ers.

While it would be good if they were winning because Michael Carter Williams appeared elite or Noel was averaging 13 rebounds and 4 blocks, this hasn't been the case. They have had surprising performances from guys like Henry Sims, Robert Covington and to a lesser extent KJ McDaniels. I am not sure any of these guys projects to be more than an 8th or 9th man on a decent team, so getting some wins with them playing well seems pretty bad. Thoughts?

[BornReady]

at the start of the season i thought that the sixers would be the worse team
with drafting 2 players in the 1st round that wont even play this season, playing a rookie that was injured from last season and a bunch of D league players

although i still liked KJ McDaniels and was not suprised by his defense translating to the NBA but was suprised by his shot seeing so much more improved from college 

i dont think this is bad for the sixers, i mean their team is improving which is what they wanted
only they wanted to rebuild the long way to win more championships by drafting great players(this is problematic financially and chemistry issues)

also im a nba conspiracy theorist and believe that in some way the lottery may be rigged e.g. anthony davis to New Orleans after the NBA sold the team, Derrick Rose to his hometown Chicago) and think that the NBA frowns on clear tanking (we were clearly tanking to get KD or Oden so they gave us neither)
by showing their improvements esp defensively they can show them that they are not tanking

[celticsclay]

My response to that would be there is a framing of wins with the 76ers that is very similar to how we view wins from the celtics.

If the celtics win because smart, bradley, zeller, KO and sullinger are all playing great basketball just about everyone is happy because it means we have a really strong  foundation moving forward.

If we win cause bass, thornton, prince and wallace are all playing real good, people are a lot less excited (and some downright angry).

Similarly the 76ers would be thrilled if Carter Williams was playing amazing (did look good yesterday) or Noel was showing huge progress and the won. However, I think they would be less excited if Hollis Thompson hits 4 three pointers and shoots 75% on jumpers or Covington hits some 3's himself because those guys probably won't be on the team next year or in the future.

[D Dub]

imo the NBA loses every night the 6ers play.  I've seen more bball discipline in middle school gyms.

[PickNRoll]

Here's how I think of it.  The first pick is the best.  Every pick after that loses a little value, but not in a linear way. Say the first pick is a 10 and every subsequent pick loses about 10%, like so.



Sliding from 1 to 2 isn't so bad.
Sliding from 1 to 5 really hurts. (3.4 pain factor)
Sliding from 10 to 15 hurts a little. (1.6 pain factor)

The pain is softened by the weighting of the ping pong balls.  In a "worst" case scenario, Philly will only reduce their chance of a top 3 pick by about 25%.  They've had the 3rd worst record for 15 games now.  If they somehow climb to the 6th worst (unlikely), their chances of a top 3 pick would drop from 46.9% to 21.5%.

[D.o.s.]

Great illustration + concept. TP.

[celticsclay]

Here's how I think of it.  The first pick is the best.  Every pick after that loses a little value, but not in a linear way. Say the first pick is a 10 and every subsequent pick loses about 10%, like so.



Sliding from 1 to 2 isn't so bad.
Sliding from 1 to 5 really hurts. (3.4 pain factor)
Sliding from 10 to 15 hurts a little. (1.6 pain factor)

The pain is softened by the weighting of the ping pong balls.  In a "worst" case scenario, Philly will only reduce their chance of a top 3 pick by about 25%.  They've had the 3rd worst record for 15 games now.  If they somehow climb to the 6th worst (unlikely), their chances of a top 3 pick would drop from 46.9% to 21.5%.

Sometimes the math isn't the most fun part of it. Also despite your best intentions of being accurate and math based, what you wrote is not even true. They were tied before yesterday with the Knicks for the second pick so they have not held this position for 15 games. Furthermore, they inched closer to the Lakers who they have picked up 2 games on. The 76ers seem most likely headed for the 4th worst record in my opinion and their chances of getting the 5th pick or so are much much higher than they appeared a month ago.

[PickNRoll]

Quite the contrarian.  6ers have been slotted in the 3rd pick after 14 of their last 16 games.  It felt like the 3rd slot would be better in my example than the 2nd slot.

[LarBrd33]

Some people scoff at the way Philly is being built.  I think it's amazing.  Hinkie is running his team like I'd run it playing NBA 2k15... dump everyone for draft picks and cap space, tank for a few years, try to land phenom prospects... sim a few years and you have a dynasty.  It's ridiculous.  You'd never expect a real team to do that, because they have tickets to sell and they can't just click "Sim to next season".  Philly is actually doing it.  Lol.

I get that people think that's absurd and that this could all bust horribly.  Sure... it's a risk.  I remember thinking Eddie Curry, Tyson Chandler and Ty Thomas was an amazing young core for Chicago.  That didn't work either.

That said, they have a really impressive young core.

MCW - Solid young PG.  One of the best young players in the league statistically

Noel - He's legit.  His numbers aren't that far off from young KG and young Anthony Davis.   I don't get why people are down on him.  He's coming off major surgery, he's 20 years old, and he's averaging 8 points 7 rebounds, 1.7 blocks and 1.6 steals in 30mpg.   He's probably a better prospect than anyone on the entire Celtic team.  A legit defensive center.   Based on the progression of other elite prospects like him, I think it's perfectly reasonable to expect him to average 15, 10, 3 and 2 within a couple seasons.

Embiid - Widely thought to be the best prospect in the 2014 draft.  Some even suggested the Cavs should have taken him #1 in spite of his injury.  Thought to be a dominant two-way big man.   Kid is a potential game-changer.  They are comparing him to Hakeem with a straight face.   I know people unfairly expect Oden, but but aside from Oden there are only a handful of bigs I've seen get the insane hype treatment... Yao Ming, Dwight Howard, Blake Griffin and Anthony Davis.   I heard some folks very high on Andre Drummond's boom/bust potential.   It's not like every super-hyped big fails... there is actually a pretty solid track record for ultra-hyped bigs like Embiid.

Saric - Don't know much about him, but some say he's got elite Dirk-level potential.

Whoever they take top 5 this year - Could be another elite prospect

Few other guys on that team that have some potential.  Wroten seems solid.   KJ McDaniels seems ok.   Jerami Grant is someone David Thorpe was ga-ga over prior to the draft (and felt should have been taken late 1st) and has recently been living up to THrope's hype.  Apparently a very hard worker.  He's been a top 10 rookie over the past month.  A  few people have said he has the potential (same body size/athleticism/work ethic) to be the next Kawhi Leonard.

That team is loaded with youth.  It's a fascinating situation to watch.  I'm still a little jealous.  Marcus Smart looks ok, but I'm not sure he has all-star potential.  Outside of him, our current prospects are pretty mediocre.  Sully is aiight.   Oly has some game.  Young might have a future.   

[celticsclay]

Quite the contrarian.  6ers have been slotted in the 3rd pick after 14 of their last 16 games.  It felt like the 3rd slot would be better in my example than the 2nd slot.

I mean I guess what we both said was true. I looked at the standings and saw they passed the knicks yesterday with their win. It is also true that they have actually held the 3rd position for the majority of the past couple of weeks. Nobody really addressed my key point, which was that they are failing at their GMs goal. As Larbrd put it, they are trying to SIM to next season, but are now in danger of get a 4th, 5th, or 6th pick instead of the 1st or 2nd. Charts aside, that is a potentially really big difference (much like the drop off from 3 to 4 last year). I have a Philly friend that was actually really on board with the Tank and is getting pretty disappointed in their winning ways. 

[celticsclay]

Some people scoff at the way Philly is being built.  I think it's amazing.  Hinkie is running his team like I'd run it playing NBA 2k15... dump everyone for draft picks and cap space, tank for a few years, try to land phenom prospects... sim a few years and you have a dynasty.  It's ridiculous.  You'd never expect a real team to do that, because they have tickets to sell and they can't just click "Sim to next season".  Philly is actually doing it.  Lol.

I get that people think that's absurd and that this could all bust horribly.  Sure... it's a risk.  I remember thinking Eddie Curry, Tyson Chandler and Ty Thomas was an amazing young core for Chicago.  That didn't work either.

That said, they have a really impressive young core.

MCW - Solid young PG.  One of the best young players in the league statistically

Noel - He's legit.  His numbers aren't that far off from young KG and young Anthony Davis.   I don't get why people are down on him.  He's coming off major surgery, he's 20 years old, and he's averaging 8 points 7 rebounds, 1.7 blocks and 1.6 steals in 30mpg.   He's probably a better prospect than anyone on the entire Celtic team.  A legit defensive center.   Based on the progression of other elite prospects like him, I think it's perfectly reasonable to expect him to average 15, 10, 3 and 2 within a couple seasons.

Embiid - Widely thought to be the best prospect in the 2014 draft.  Some even suggested the Cavs should have taken him #1 in spite of his injury.  Thought to be a dominant two-way big man.   Kid is a potential game-changer.  They are comparing him to Hakeem with a straight face.   I know people unfairly expect Oden, but but aside from Oden there are only a handful of bigs I've seen get the insane hype treatment... Yao Ming, Dwight Howard, Blake Griffin and Anthony Davis.   I heard some folks very high on Andre Drummond's boom/bust potential.   It's not like every super-hyped big fails... there is actually a pretty solid track record for ultra-hyped bigs like Embiid.

Saric - Don't know much about him, but some say he's got elite Dirk-level potential.

Whoever they take top 5 this year - Could be another elite prospect

Few other guys on that team that have some potential.  Wroten seems solid.   KJ McDaniels seems ok.   Jerami Grant is someone David Thorpe was ga-ga over prior to the draft (and felt should have been taken late 1st) and has recently been living up to THrope's hype.  Apparently a very hard worker.  He's been a top 10 rookie over the past month.  A  few people have said he has the potential (same body size/athleticism/work ethic) to be the next Kawhi Leonard.

That team is loaded with youth.  It's a fascinating situation to watch.  I'm still a little jealous.  Marcus Smart looks ok, but I'm not sure he has all-star potential.  Outside of him, our current prospects are pretty mediocre.  Sully is aiight.   Oly has some game.  Young might have a future.

I know a lot of talent evaluation is opinion with players based early in their career. Some people are high on Noel others are low. However, you can't really say with a straight face that MCW is statistically one of the best young players in the game. He shoots 38% from the field as a point guard and 25% on 3's (despite taking 3 a game) and is second in the league in turnovers at 4.2. 15 points, 7 assists and 6 rebounds are nice, but not at that efficiency level. We could easily name a lot of top young players with better overall statistics. They have also floated him in trade deals, so the 76ers may not even view him as a foundation piece themselves.

[LarBrd33]

Some people scoff at the way Philly is being built.  I think it's amazing.  Hinkie is running his team like I'd run it playing NBA 2k15... dump everyone for draft picks and cap space, tank for a few years, try to land phenom prospects... sim a few years and you have a dynasty.  It's ridiculous.  You'd never expect a real team to do that, because they have tickets to sell and they can't just click "Sim to next season".  Philly is actually doing it.  Lol.

I get that people think that's absurd and that this could all bust horribly.  Sure... it's a risk.  I remember thinking Eddie Curry, Tyson Chandler and Ty Thomas was an amazing young core for Chicago.  That didn't work either.

That said, they have a really impressive young core.

MCW - Solid young PG.  One of the best young players in the league statistically

Noel - He's legit.  His numbers aren't that far off from young KG and young Anthony Davis.   I don't get why people are down on him.  He's coming off major surgery, he's 20 years old, and he's averaging 8 points 7 rebounds, 1.7 blocks and 1.6 steals in 30mpg.   He's probably a better prospect than anyone on the entire Celtic team.  A legit defensive center.   Based on the progression of other elite prospects like him, I think it's perfectly reasonable to expect him to average 15, 10, 3 and 2 within a couple seasons.

Embiid - Widely thought to be the best prospect in the 2014 draft.  Some even suggested the Cavs should have taken him #1 in spite of his injury.  Thought to be a dominant two-way big man.   Kid is a potential game-changer.  They are comparing him to Hakeem with a straight face.   I know people unfairly expect Oden, but but aside from Oden there are only a handful of bigs I've seen get the insane hype treatment... Yao Ming, Dwight Howard, Blake Griffin and Anthony Davis.   I heard some folks very high on Andre Drummond's boom/bust potential.   It's not like every super-hyped big fails... there is actually a pretty solid track record for ultra-hyped bigs like Embiid.

Saric - Don't know much about him, but some say he's got elite Dirk-level potential.

Whoever they take top 5 this year - Could be another elite prospect

Few other guys on that team that have some potential.  Wroten seems solid.   KJ McDaniels seems ok.   Jerami Grant is someone David Thorpe was ga-ga over prior to the draft (and felt should have been taken late 1st) and has recently been living up to THrope's hype.  Apparently a very hard worker.  He's been a top 10 rookie over the past month.  A  few people have said he has the potential (same body size/athleticism/work ethic) to be the next Kawhi Leonard.

That team is loaded with youth.  It's a fascinating situation to watch.  I'm still a little jealous.  Marcus Smart looks ok, but I'm not sure he has all-star potential.  Outside of him, our current prospects are pretty mediocre.  Sully is aiight.   Oly has some game.  Young might have a future.

I know a lot of talent evaluation is opinion with players based early in their career. Some people are high on Noel others are low. However, you can't really say with a straight face that MCW is statistically one of the best young players in the game. He shoots 38% from the field as a point guard and 25% on 3's (despite taking 3 a game) and is second in the league in turnovers at 4.2. 15 points, 7 assists and 6 rebounds are nice, but not at that efficiency level. We could easily name a lot of top young players with better overall statistics. They have also floated him in trade deals, so the 76ers may not even view him as a foundation piece themselves.

So he's basically a rich man's/much younger Rajon Rondo

[tazzmaniac]

Quite the contrarian.  6ers have been slotted in the 3rd pick after 14 of their last 16 games.  It felt like the 3rd slot would be better in my example than the 2nd slot.

I mean I guess what we both said was true. I looked at the standings and saw they passed the knicks yesterday with their win. It is also true that they have actually held the 3rd position for the majority of the past couple of weeks. Nobody really addressed my key point, which was that they are failing at their GMs goal. As Larbrd put it, they are trying to SIM to next season, but are now in danger of get a 4th, 5th, or 6th pick instead of the 1st or 2nd. Charts aside, that is a potentially really big difference (much like the drop off from 3 to 4 last year). I have a Philly friend that was actually really on board with the Tank and is getting pretty disappointed in their winning ways.

You're Philly friend ought to be ecstatic.  They already have Embiid and Saric in the bag.  I'm not as high on Noel and MCW but they are still pretty good assets.  I think there is a solid top 5 (Okafor, Mudiay, Johnson, Russell and Towns) this year before the drop off and Philly should get a top 5 pick.  To top it off, they only have 14.5M committed next year so they can go hard for free agents.  Hinke has done a masterful job so far. 

[PickNRoll]

Quite the contrarian.  6ers have been slotted in the 3rd pick after 14 of their last 16 games.  It felt like the 3rd slot would be better in my example than the 2nd slot.

Nobody really addressed my key point, which was that they are failing at their GMs goal. As Larbrd put it, they are trying to SIM to next season, but are now in danger of get a 4th, 5th, or 6th pick instead of the 1st or 2nd.

I thought I addressed that, maybe in a roundabout way.

They've realistically been looking at the 3rd pick for while.
There is not a significant dramatic difference historically between a 3rd, 4th, or 5th pick, as described in my image.
Even if they finish with the 5th worst record rather than the 2nd, the chance of landing a top 3 pick only goes down by 30% due to weighted ping pong balls.

If Hinkie's goal was to get another blue chipper, they're just fine.  You could cut MCW, Wroten, and Noel to pick up another 15% at getting Okafor I guess.

[PickNRoll]

Quite the contrarian.  6ers have been slotted in the 3rd pick after 14 of their last 16 games.  It felt like the 3rd slot would be better in my example than the 2nd slot.

I mean I guess what we both said was true. I looked at the standings and saw they passed the knicks yesterday with their win. It is also true that they have actually held the 3rd position for the majority of the past couple of weeks. Nobody really addressed my key point, which was that they are failing at their GMs goal. As Larbrd put it, they are trying to SIM to next season, but are now in danger of get a 4th, 5th, or 6th pick instead of the 1st or 2nd. Charts aside, that is a potentially really big difference (much like the drop off from 3 to 4 last year). I have a Philly friend that was actually really on board with the Tank and is getting pretty disappointed in their winning ways.

You're Philly friend ought to be ecstatic.  They already have Embiid and Saric in the bag.  I'm not as high on Noel and MCW but they are still pretty good assets.  I think there is a solid top 5 (Okafor, Mudiay, Johnson, Russell and Towns) this year before the drop off and Philly should get a top 5 pick.  To top it off, they only have 14.5M committed next year so they can go hard for free agents.  Hinke has done a masterful job so far.

I think Saric is going to be a real player.  He's a tough dude, fierce competitor, and has enough size and strength to play with the big boys.  I'd love to pry him away from Hinkie somehow.  I think Hinkie NAILED this last draft.  Strangely, I don't care for MCW or Noel at all.