How about Sullinger's assist numbers? 2.6 apg for a PF/C is creeping into the range of favorable company (DM. Cousins, Noah, both Gasols, etc.). His per 36 stats (averaging 31 mpg right now) have him at 3 apg, vs. 2.1 the year before and 1.4 his rookie season). If he keeps this up all while increasing his point and rebound totals and learning good team defense (already 7 blocks this year!), I'll be very impressed.
P.S. I know members on this forum aren't enthralled with all-encompassing stats like PER and VORP (value over replacement player) and such, but it's interesting to note these stats' fondness of Sully's season so far.
According to basketball-reference:
PER: 21.6 this season vs. 16.4 last season
WS/48 (win shares per 48 minutes): .176 this season vs. .091 last season
OBPM/DBPM/BPM (offensive box plus/minus/defensive box plus minus/box plus minus): 4.3/0.4/4.7 this season vs. 0.3/-.5/-.1 last year (I'm guessing there was some rounding beyond the tenths digit place.
VORP: 4.4 this season vs. 1.0 last season
A few trends that could explain these stats:
Increased FG%
.464 this year vs .427 last year. I expect this to continue to improve.
Increased FT%
.846 this year vs. .778 last year. I don't know if this number will improve, but I don't see any reason why he can't remain above 80% for the season.
Increased ORPG
4.4 offensive rebounds per game this year vs. 3.3 last year. So far his total number of offensive rebounds (22) is good for third in the league. I've always thought Sully had the perfect body for offensive rebounds and I don't see this as an anomaly either. Perhaps he settles around 4 ORPG, which is still quite good.
Increased APG
As previously mentioned, 2.6 apg this year vs. 1.6 apg last year. Does this continue? Hard to tell. I hope it does. His AST%: 12.2% this year vs. 10.1 last year vs. 6.2% his rookie season. My guess: Sully remains at about 2.5 apg/30 mpg and is a candidate for 3.0 apg if his minutes jump up to 35 mpg.
Decreased TO/G
Sully is averaging just 0.6 turnovers per game this year vs. 1.6 topg last year. I also expect this to continue. Last season Sully averaged 3.0 turnovers per 100 possessions. This year, just 0.9.
All of these trends lead to more points for Sully as well (15.4 ppg this season vs. 13.3 ppg last season). I expect this scoring trend to continue as well.
Increased BPG
Sully is averaging a shocking 1.4 blocks per game this year vs. 0.7 blocks per game last year. I expect this number to shrink some, but I do think Sully is capable of averaging a block per game if he continues to show defensive improvement both individually and team-oriented.
Other trends I expect to reverse
P*ss-poor 3PTFG%
Sully's lights-out preseason from beyond the arc hasn't extended into the regular season. Conventional basketball wisdom would suggest his stats are merely averaging out after a scorching preseason and it's unfortunate for him that the trend had to go so far south to average out just as the season started. I expect him to shoot 30% from three this year, up from about 27% last year.
Decreased defensive rebounding stats
Sully is averaging 4.0 defensive rebounds per game this year vs. 4.9 per game last year. His DRB% (defensive rebounding percentage) is down to 15.5% from 20.6% last year (and 22.1% his rookie year). Part of this could be circumstantial. Stevens' seems to be encouraging his guards and wing players to crash the boards in order to start the fast break earlier. Regardless, I expect to see Sully rebound (I just patted myself on the back for that pun) to his usual self and for his total rebounding average, marginally improved to 8.4 rpg from 8.1 rpg last year, to jump up to about 9-10 per game this season.
Other trends to watch: decreased fouling averages (2.8 fpg this year vs. 3.4 fpg last year), decreased USG% (usage percentage; down to 20.6% from 24.1% last year), decreased FTR (free throw rate, down to .188 from .226 last year), increased FG% at the rim (.800 within 3 feet of the rim this year vs. .599 within 3 feet of the rim last year), decreased FG% outside of the semi-circle (.316 within 3-10 ft. of the basket this year vs. .377 within 3-10 ft. of the basket vs. 3-10 ft. of the basket last year), increased FG% from midrange (.571 within 16 feet to the 3-point line to the basket this year vs. .456 within 16 feet to the 3-point line to the basket last year). Of those trends, I expect these two to stick: higher efficiency from point-blank range (though maybe not 80%-level efficiency), higher efficiency from the midrange.
Awesome post, appreciate you taking the time to lay that out. TP.
Sullinger is slowly becoming the player many of us were hoping and projecting he'd become. He's still at a slight disadvantage having to guard opposing centers over KO but that's for obvious reasons.
His three point shooting isn't too much of a concern for me, I think right now it's more of a 'fake threat' tool that Stevens Leeds to gain so much spacing (and get sully some practice shooting threes). I'm more concerned about his
a) mid range jumper development- which is what I'm very happy with.
b) dribble drive skills - to complement the jumper and three point shot with his deceptive quickness when slower bigs are guarding him.
FYI last season he was 5th or 8th in the NBA for offensive rebounding. Pretty solid and screams All Star potential to me with his soft touch and shooting stroke.
Again, great post and much appreciated.
Topic: Very impressive individual stats. Player stocks on the rise. (Read 5225 times)