Very impressive individual stats. Player stocks on the rise.

[LarBrd33]

I'm pretty impressed with the individual stats the players are putting up.  We have some ok offensive players who look pretty solid next to Rondo. 

Green - 20.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.8 steals, 1.0 blocks 46%/36%/81% in 34.2mpg- Doubtful he keeps that up.  That's fringe all-star stats right there.

Rondo - 9 points, 8 rebounds, 11.2 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.4 blocks 43%/17%/40% in 33.2mpg - pretty typical Rondo stuff right there.  He can still run an offense well, but can't shoot worth lick.  Also averaging 4.2 turnovers, but I'd say his trade value is probably on the rise if he can stay healthy.

Sully - 15.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 0.4 steals, 1.4 blocks 46%/14%/85% in 31.6mpg - Pretty darn solid for Sully.  The 22 year old is showing improvement.  His stock is on the rise. 

Bradley - 16 points, 2.8 rebounds, 0.6 assists,  0.8 steals, 0 blocks 45%/38%/88% in 30mpg - If he can keep this up, it will be time to start calling Bradley a "good" shooter.  Last year he averaged 15 points on 44%/39%/80% shooting.   We're starting to see a big enough sample size that we can start taking Bradley as a shooter seriously.  Earning his money right now.

Olynyk - 12.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks 60%/55%/100% in 25.6mpg -  Dude... Oly can shoot. He's the most interesting of them all in my opinion.  He'll come down to Earth, but seriously at this point it seems our most consistent shooter. Last year in 26 post-allstar games he averaged 12 points while shooting 51%/43%/82% in 22.5mpg.   He's started off this season in similar fashion.  His consistency is why we're continuing to play him out of position at center.  He's not a center.  Really curious to see what would happen if he got 30+ minutes consistently at a more appropriate position. His per-36 numbers he's averaging almost exactly the same points and rebounds as Sully (17.5 and 9.5)... Does anyone envision a future where both of those guys are starting together next to a defensive center?  Can either play a non-traditional SF position?

We're also getting solid production out of the bench...


Turner is averaging 6.4 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 47% in 19 minutes.  Bass is still doing Bass things in limited minutes.  Smart is averaging 6.8 points, 2.6 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.2 steals in 20 minutes...

First 5 games have been pretty great from an individual stat perspective.

 

[pearljammer10]

I'm pretty impressed with the individual stats the players are putting up.  We have some ok offensive players who look pretty solid next to Rondo. 

Green - 20.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.8 steals, 1.0 blocks 46%/36%/81% in 34.2mpg- Doubtful he keeps that up.  That's fringe all-star stats right there.

Rondo - 9 points, 8 rebounds, 11.2 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.4 blocks 43%/17%/40% in 33.2mpg - pretty typical Rondo stuff right there.  He can still run an offense well, but can't shoot worth lick.  Also averaging 4.2 turnovers, but I'd say his trade value is probably on the rise if he can stay healthy.

Sully - 15.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 0.4 steals, 1.4 blocks 46%/14%/85% in 31.6mpg - Pretty darn solid for Sully.  The 22 year old is showing improvement.  His stock is on the rise. 

Bradley - 16 points, 2.8 rebounds, 0.6 assists,  0.8 steals, 0 blocks 45%/38%/88% in 30mpg - If he can keep this up, it will be time to start calling Bradley a "good" shooter.  Last year he averaged 15 points on 44%/39%/80% shooting.   We're starting to see a big enough sample size that we can start taking Bradley as a shooter seriously.  Earning his money right now.

Olynyk - 12.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks 60%/55%/100% in 25.6mpg -  Dude... Oly can shoot. He's the most interesting of them all in my opinion.  He'll come down to Earth, but seriously at this point it seems our most consistent shooter. Last year in 26 post-allstar games he averaged 12 points while shooting 51%/43%/82% in 22.5mpg.   He's started off this season in similar fashion.  His consistency is why we're continuing to play him out of position at center.  He's not a center.  Really curious to see what would happen if he got 30+ minutes consistently at a more appropriate position. His per-36 numbers he's averaging almost exactly the same points and rebounds as Sully (17.5 and 9.5)... Does anyone envision a future where both of those guys are starting together next to a defensive center?  Can either play a non-traditional SF position?

We're also getting solid production out of the bench...


Turner is averaging 6.4 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 47% in 19 minutes.  Bass is still doing Bass things in limited minutes.  Smart is averaging 6.8 points, 2.6 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.2 steals in 20 minutes...

First 5 games have been pretty great from an individual stat perspective.

 

Couldn't agree more. I hope KO continues to get more aggressive with his shot and continues to gain confidence in it. I still think he is going to end up having a better year, statistically, than Sullinger.

[blink]

Olynyk - 12.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks 60%/55%/100% in 25.6mpg -  Dude... Oly can shoot. He's the most interesting of them all in my opinion.  He'll come down to Earth, but seriously at this point it seems our most consistent shooter. Last year in 26 post-allstar games he averaged 12 points while shooting 51%/43%/82% in 22.5mpg.   He's started off this season in similar fashion.  His consistency is why we're continuing to play him out of position at center.  He's not a center.  Really curious to see what would happen if he got 30+ minutes consistently at a more appropriate position. His per-36 numbers he's averaging almost exactly the same points and rebounds as Sully (17.5 and 9.5)... Does anyone envision a future where both of those guys are starting together next to a defensive center?  Can either play a non-traditional SF position?


 

I have noticed KO's shooting as well.  I keep waiting for his numbers to even out, but maybe he just is a good shooter.  He looks super solid when taking the 3s.  He just seems like he still a bit hesitant to take all the shots he should, still rather make another pass at times.

I really wish KO was a step quicker, and playing him at the 3 and sully at the 4 might not be completely out of the question.  Just isn't quick enough or athletic enough or a good enough defender to match up defensively to the quicker 3s / wing players.  Or that is what it seems like.  If we had a stud def center, then maybe that covers him up defensively enough?

It is def an interesting problem to have.  Hard to know if DA will try and keep both Sully and KO since they basically play the same position, and are def 2 of our top players right now.

[zimbo]

KO is beasting 

[KeepRondo]

Nice post.

I'm not as big on KO as you are but he did play better in the last two games. Might just be a match up issue with certain teams. Hopefully he proves me wrong and also cuts his hair. 

[86MaxwellSmart]

Seems like when KO does NOT hesitate...the ball hits nothing but net....when he delays, the problems start......SHOOT the ball KO--!!

[LarBrd33]

Olynyk - 12.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks 60%/55%/100% in 25.6mpg -  Dude... Oly can shoot. He's the most interesting of them all in my opinion.  He'll come down to Earth, but seriously at this point it seems our most consistent shooter. Last year in 26 post-allstar games he averaged 12 points while shooting 51%/43%/82% in 22.5mpg.   He's started off this season in similar fashion.  His consistency is why we're continuing to play him out of position at center.  He's not a center.  Really curious to see what would happen if he got 30+ minutes consistently at a more appropriate position. His per-36 numbers he's averaging almost exactly the same points and rebounds as Sully (17.5 and 9.5)... Does anyone envision a future where both of those guys are starting together next to a defensive center?  Can either play a non-traditional SF position?


 

I have noticed KO's shooting as well.  I keep waiting for his numbers to even out, but maybe he just is a good shooter.  He looks super solid when taking the 3s.  He just seems like he still a bit hesitant to take all the shots he should, still rather make another pass at times.

I really wish KO was a step quicker, and playing him at the 3 and sully at the 4 might not be completely out of the question.  Just isn't quick enough or athletic enough or a good enough defender to match up defensively to the quicker 3s / wing players.  Or that is what it seems like.  If we had a stud def center, then maybe that covers him up defensively enough?

It is def an interesting problem to have.  Hard to know if DA will try and keep both Sully and KO since they basically play the same position, and are def 2 of our top players right now.

On the bolded part... let me ask you... do you think it would be more damaging to play Oly out of position at SF with a real defensive center on the court... or more damaging to keep playing him out of position at C?   What is more ridiculous?  Because playing him at center is ridiculous, but he has too much talent to not get playing time.

I've been asking if Oly at SF was a possibility for a long time.  Most people seem to think it's an insane idea.  Is it more insane than Oly manning the middle?  Dude can shoot and pass... he's a solid offensive player who seems to be improving.  What's the worst that can happen if you played him at SF next to Sully (PF) and a real center?

[KeepRondo]

Olynyk - 12.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks 60%/55%/100% in 25.6mpg -  Dude... Oly can shoot. He's the most interesting of them all in my opinion.  He'll come down to Earth, but seriously at this point it seems our most consistent shooter. Last year in 26 post-allstar games he averaged 12 points while shooting 51%/43%/82% in 22.5mpg.   He's started off this season in similar fashion.  His consistency is why we're continuing to play him out of position at center.  He's not a center.  Really curious to see what would happen if he got 30+ minutes consistently at a more appropriate position. His per-36 numbers he's averaging almost exactly the same points and rebounds as Sully (17.5 and 9.5)... Does anyone envision a future where both of those guys are starting together next to a defensive center?  Can either play a non-traditional SF position?


 

I have noticed KO's shooting as well.  I keep waiting for his numbers to even out, but maybe he just is a good shooter.  He looks super solid when taking the 3s.  He just seems like he still a bit hesitant to take all the shots he should, still rather make another pass at times.

I really wish KO was a step quicker, and playing him at the 3 and sully at the 4 might not be completely out of the question.  Just isn't quick enough or athletic enough or a good enough defender to match up defensively to the quicker 3s / wing players.  Or that is what it seems like.  If we had a stud def center, then maybe that covers him up defensively enough?

It is def an interesting problem to have.  Hard to know if DA will try and keep both Sully and KO since they basically play the same position, and are def 2 of our top players right now.

On the bolded part... let me ask you... do you think it would be more damaging to play Oly out of position at SF with a real defensive center on the court... or more damaging to keep playing him out of position at C?   What is more ridiculous?  Because playing him at center is ridiculous, but he has too much talent to not get playing time.

I've been asking if Oly at SF was a possibility for a long time.  Most people seem to think it's an insane idea.  Is it more insane than Oly manning the middle?  Dude can shoot and pass... he's a solid offensive player who seems to be improving.  What's the worst that can happen if you played him at SF next to Sully (PF) and a real center?

I don't see KO staying in front of too many small forwards. He's gonna get burnt on most isolations. Teams usually try to get you to switch off the pick so someone like KO has to guard someone quicker. You are basically just giving them the matchup with a full shot clock.

[blink]

Olynyk - 12.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks 60%/55%/100% in 25.6mpg -  Dude... Oly can shoot. He's the most interesting of them all in my opinion.  He'll come down to Earth, but seriously at this point it seems our most consistent shooter. Last year in 26 post-allstar games he averaged 12 points while shooting 51%/43%/82% in 22.5mpg.   He's started off this season in similar fashion.  His consistency is why we're continuing to play him out of position at center.  He's not a center.  Really curious to see what would happen if he got 30+ minutes consistently at a more appropriate position. His per-36 numbers he's averaging almost exactly the same points and rebounds as Sully (17.5 and 9.5)... Does anyone envision a future where both of those guys are starting together next to a defensive center?  Can either play a non-traditional SF position?


 

I have noticed KO's shooting as well.  I keep waiting for his numbers to even out, but maybe he just is a good shooter.  He looks super solid when taking the 3s.  He just seems like he still a bit hesitant to take all the shots he should, still rather make another pass at times.

I really wish KO was a step quicker, and playing him at the 3 and sully at the 4 might not be completely out of the question.  Just isn't quick enough or athletic enough or a good enough defender to match up defensively to the quicker 3s / wing players.  Or that is what it seems like.  If we had a stud def center, then maybe that covers him up defensively enough?

It is def an interesting problem to have.  Hard to know if DA will try and keep both Sully and KO since they basically play the same position, and are def 2 of our top players right now.

On the bolded part... let me ask you... do you think it would be more damaging to play Oly out of position at SF with a real defensive center on the court... or more damaging to keep playing him out of position at C?   What is more ridiculous?  Because playing him at center is ridiculous, but he has too much talent to not get playing time.

I've been asking if Oly at SF was a possibility for a long time.  Most people seem to think it's an insane idea.  Is it more insane than Oly manning the middle?  Dude can shoot and pass... he's a solid offensive player who seems to be improving.  What's the worst that can happen if you played him at SF next to Sully (PF) and a real center?

Most of us agree KO is no center, but isn't Sully typically drawing the assignment to guard opposing teams centers anyways?  I think Sully guarded Hibbert most of the time yesterday.

The worst thing that can happen is that getting beat def by so many quicker 3s somehow hampers his development, or that he becomes so foul prone that he can't effectively stay on the court.  It would be interesting to see KO guard Melo, LBJ, Durrant and the like just to see what happens.  But if can finally find our mythical rim-protecting center, maybe it isn't a deal breaker.

Do we think KO is a better shooter / scorer long term than say a Jeff Green?

I don't know though, KO is a smart player, he just isn't very fast / athletic.  Maybe having  a 7'-0" sf would create enough matchup problems for the other team that it would be worth it.

[LarBrd33]

So I think what we're basically saying is that there's no future where Sully and Oly are starting together.

[KeepRondo]

So I think what we're basically saying is that there's no future where Sully and Oly are starting together.

If KO gets tougher and puts on a lot more muscle then possibly. That would let Sully slide back to the four.

[blink]

So I think what we're basically saying is that there's no future where Sully and Oly are starting together.

well, I wouldn't say no future.  It would be really nice if we could find our rim protector, tall dude that can play great defense in the paint before we would trade Sully or KO. 

Let's see where the stats are after 20-30 games for Sully and KO.  The q may answer itself further into the season.

[bballdog384]

Zeller should start over Olynyk right now..

Olynyk should still get the same (if not more) minutes, but would be backup C and PF. He'd do much better against back up centers than starters - and he would still play on the floor with Sully for a good portion of the game. He'd also provide the bench with a much needed offensive force - both with his passing and shooting.

He'd be best suited to play in this situation long term. If we get a defensive center, then a 3-man bigs rotation of Sully, KO, and say.. Sanders would be awesome. Both Sully and KO will be good enough to start on a good team at PF - but that doesn't mean we can't keep them both.

[TheFlex]

How about Sullinger's assist numbers? 2.6 apg for a PF/C is creeping into the range of favorable company (DM. Cousins, Noah, both Gasols, etc.). His per 36 stats (averaging 31 mpg right now) have him at 3 apg, vs. 2.1 the year before and 1.4 his rookie season). If he keeps this up all while increasing his point and rebound totals and learning good team defense (already 7 blocks this year!), I'll be very impressed.

P.S. I know members on this forum aren't enthralled with all-encompassing stats like PER and VORP (value over replacement player) and such, but it's interesting to note these stats' fondness of Sully's season so far.

According to basketball-reference:

PER: 21.6 this season vs. 16.4 last season
WS/48 (win shares per 48 minutes): .176 this season vs. .091 last season
OBPM/DBPM/BPM (offensive box plus/minus/defensive box plus minus/box plus minus): 4.3/0.4/4.7 this season vs. 0.3/-.5/-.1 last year (I'm guessing there was some rounding beyond the tenths digit place.
VORP: 4.4 this season vs. 1.0 last season

A few trends that could explain these stats:

Increased FG%

.464 this year vs .427 last year. I expect this to continue to improve.

Increased FT%

.846 this year vs. .778 last year. I don't know if this number will improve, but I don't see any reason why he can't remain above 80% for the season.

Increased ORPG

4.4 offensive rebounds per game this year vs. 3.3 last year. So far his total number of offensive rebounds (22) is good for third in the league. I've always thought Sully had the perfect body for offensive rebounds and I don't see this as an anomaly either. Perhaps he settles around 4 ORPG, which is still quite good.

Increased APG

As previously mentioned, 2.6 apg this year vs. 1.6 apg last year. Does this continue? Hard to tell.  I hope it does. His AST%: 12.2% this year vs. 10.1 last year vs. 6.2% his rookie season. My guess: Sully remains at about 2.5 apg/30 mpg and is a candidate for 3.0 apg if his minutes jump up to 35 mpg.

Decreased TO/G

Sully is averaging just 0.6 turnovers per game this year vs. 1.6 topg last year. I also expect this to continue. Last season Sully averaged 3.0 turnovers per 100 possessions. This year, just 0.9.

All of these trends lead to more points for Sully as well (15.4 ppg this season vs. 13.3 ppg last season). I expect this scoring trend to continue as well.

Increased BPG

Sully is averaging a shocking 1.4 blocks per game this year vs. 0.7 blocks per game last year. I expect this number to shrink some, but I do think Sully is capable of averaging a block per game if he continues to show defensive improvement both individually and team-oriented.

Other trends I expect to reverse

P*ss-poor 3PTFG%

Sully's lights-out preseason from beyond the arc hasn't extended into the regular season. Conventional basketball wisdom would suggest his stats are merely averaging out after a scorching preseason and it's unfortunate for him that the trend had to go so far south to average out just as the season started. I expect him to shoot 30% from three this year, up from about 27% last year.

Decreased defensive rebounding stats

Sully is averaging 4.0 defensive rebounds per game this year vs. 4.9 per game last year. His DRB% (defensive rebounding percentage) is down to 15.5% from 20.6% last year (and 22.1% his rookie year). Part of this could be circumstantial. Stevens' seems to be encouraging his guards and wing players to crash the boards in order to start the fast break earlier. Regardless, I expect to see Sully rebound (I just patted myself on the back for that pun) to his usual self and for his total rebounding average, marginally improved to 8.4 rpg from 8.1 rpg last year, to jump up to about 9-10 per game this season.

Other trends to watch: decreased fouling average (2.8 fpg this year vs. 3.4 fpg last year), decreased USG% (usage percentage; down to 20.6% from 24.1% last year), decreased FTR (free throw rate, down to .188 from .226 last year), increased FG% at the rim (.800 within 3 feet of the rim this year vs. .599 within 3 feet of the rim last year), decreased FG% outside of the semi-circle (.316 within 3-10 ft. of the basket this year vs. .377 within 3-10 ft. of the basket last year), increased FG% from midrange (.571 within 16 feet to the 3-point line of the basket this year vs. .456 within 16 feet to the 3-point line of the basket last year). Of those trends, I expect these two to stick: higher efficiency from point-blank range (though maybe not 80%-level efficiency), higher efficiency from the midrange.

[KeepRondo]

How about Sullinger's assist numbers? 2.6 apg for a PF/C is creeping into the range of favorable company (DM. Cousins, Noah, both Gasols, etc.). His per 36 stats (averaging 31 mpg right now) have him at 3 apg, vs. 2.1 the year before and 1.4 his rookie season). If he keeps this up all while increasing his point and rebound totals and learning good team defense (already 7 blocks this year!), I'll be very impressed.

P.S. I know members on this forum aren't enthralled with all-encompassing stats like PER and VORP (value over replacement player) and such, but it's interesting to note these stats' fondness of Sully's season so far.

According to basketball-reference:

PER: 21.6 this season vs. 16.4 last season
WS/48 (win shares per 48 minutes): .176 this season vs. .091 last season
OBPM/DBPM/BPM (offensive box plus/minus/defensive box plus minus/box plus minus): 4.3/0.4/4.7 this season vs. 0.3/-.5/-.1 last year (I'm guessing there was some rounding beyond the tenths digit place.
VORP: 4.4 this season vs. 1.0 last season

A few trends that could explain these stats:

Increased FG%

.464 this year vs .427 last year. I expect this to continue to improve.

Increased FT%

.846 this year vs. .778 last year. I don't know if this number will improve, but I don't see any reason why he can't remain above 80% for the season.

Increased ORPG

4.4 offensive rebounds per game this year vs. 3.3 last year. So far his total number of offensive rebounds (22) is good for third in the league. I've always thought Sully had the perfect body for offensive rebounds and I don't see this as an anomaly either. Perhaps he settles around 4 ORPG, which is still quite good.

Increased APG

As previously mentioned, 2.6 apg this year vs. 1.6 apg last year. Does this continue? Hard to tell.  I hope it does. His AST%: 12.2% this year vs. 10.1 last year vs. 6.2% his rookie season. My guess: Sully remains at about 2.5 apg/30 mpg and is a candidate for 3.0 apg if his minutes jump up to 35 mpg.

Decreased TO/G

Sully is averaging just 0.6 turnovers per game this year vs. 1.6 topg last year. I also expect this to continue. Last season Sully averaged 3.0 turnovers per 100 possessions. This year, just 0.9.

All of these trends lead to more points for Sully as well (15.4 ppg this season vs. 13.3 ppg last season). I expect this scoring trend to continue as well.

Increased BPG

Sully is averaging a shocking 1.4 blocks per game this year vs. 0.7 blocks per game last year. I expect this number to shrink some, but I do think Sully is capable of averaging a block per game if he continues to show defensive improvement both individually and team-oriented.

Other trends I expect to reverse

P*ss-poor 3PTFG%

Sully's lights-out preseason from beyond the arc hasn't extended into the regular season. Conventional basketball wisdom would suggest his stats are merely averaging out after a scorching preseason and it's unfortunate for him that the trend had to go so far south to average out just as the season started. I expect him to shoot 30% from three this year, up from about 27% last year.

Decreased defensive rebounding stats

Sully is averaging 4.0 defensive rebounds per game this year vs. 4.9 per game last year. His DRB% (defensive rebounding percentage) is down to 15.5% from 20.6% last year (and 22.1% his rookie year). Part of this could be circumstantial. Stevens' seems to be encouraging his guards and wing players to crash the boards in order to start the fast break earlier. Regardless, I expect to see Sully rebound (I just patted myself on the back for that pun) to his usual self and for his total rebounding average, marginally improved to 8.4 rpg from 8.1 rpg last year, to jump up to about 9-10 per game this season.

Other trends to watch: decreased fouling averages (2.8 fpg this year vs. 3.4 fpg last year), decreased USG% (usage percentage; down to 20.6% from 24.1% last year), decreased FTR (free throw rate, down to .188 from .226 last year), increased FG% at the rim (.800 within 3 feet of the rim this year vs. .599 within 3 feet of the rim last year), decreased FG% outside of the semi-circle (.316 within 3-10 ft. of the basket this year vs. .377 within 3-10 ft. of the basket vs. 3-10 ft. of the basket last year), increased FG% from midrange (.571 within 16 feet to the 3-point line to the basket this year vs. .456 within 16 feet to the 3-point line to the basket last year). Of those trends, I expect these two to stick: higher efficiency from point-blank range (though maybe not 80%-level efficiency), higher efficiency from the midrange.

TP for the breakdown.

It just seems like good things happen when Sully touches the ball and when he's not getting his touches, he finds the ball off the offensive glass. And I don't mind the 3s for now. He was hitting them in preseason but it seems like he's rushing them right now. Hopefully he can find some kind of rhythm when taking them again. I think he has a soft enough touch to shoot the 3.