Rondo looks buff... And his shot looks better!?!?

[D.o.s.]

We're just trying to figure out if Rondo's a good midrange shooter. It's preseason--have you seen our team? We need distractions.

Anyway, Numbers time!

Rondo was assisted on 23% of his 2pt shots last year. 2 point shots accounted for 89% of his shots attempted, and 81% of his shots made. Mid range shots accounted for 27% of his points.

Unfortunately, I can't seem to get the stats page to break down the midrange into assisted and non assisted. So that's annoying, and leaves us at a bit of a stalemate.


Comparatively;

Chris Paul was assisted on 17% of his shots. 2 point shots were 72% of his attempts. 26.5% of his points came from the midrange.

Russell Westbrook was assisted on 19% of his shots. 88% of his shots were 2pts. 19% of his points came from the mid range.

Tony Parker was assisted on 24.6% of his shots. 93% of his shots were 2 pointers. 24% of his points came from the mid range.

John Wall was also assisted on 24.6% of his shots. 94% shots worth 2. 28% of his points  came from the mid range.

The ghost of Steve Nash was assisted on 20% of his shots. 72% of his shots were 2 pointers. 26% of his points were from the mid range.

Steph Curry was assisted on 25% of his shots. 56% of his shots were from 2 point land, and mid range shots accounted for 22% of his points.

Link is here:

http://stats.nba.com/leaguePlayerGeneral.html?pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=25&MeasureType=Scoring&PerMode=PerGame&sortField=PCT_FGA_2PT&sortOrder=DES&filters=&PlayerPosition=G&StarterBench=Starters&PlayerExperience=Veteran

Hoopdata gives stats for that:

http://www.hoopdata.com/shotstats.aspx?team=%&type=pg&posi=PG&yr=2013&gp2=0&mins=30

TP!

So Rondo was assisted on 37% of his 16-23 ft shots, shooting about three or four a game (actual number is 3.6)

Comparatively:
Deron Williams is assisted on 51% ( ), attempted 2.8.
John Wall--33% assisted, attempted 5.5
Kyrie Irving--30% assisted, attempted 3.8
Stephen Curry--26.7% assisted, attempted 4.8
Tony Parker--24% assisted, attempted 4.8
Steve Nash--19% assisted, attempted 2.3
Chris Paul--19% assisted, attempted 3.4
Russell Westbrook--7% assisted (what's the opposite smiley of 'shocked'?), attempted 4.0

(and, for fun, Derrick Rose last season [11-12]: 14.6% assisted, attempted 3.4)


Biases:
I don't think it's a huge stretch of the imagination to say that an assisted shot is easier to hit than a non-assisted shot. Linguistically, that's almost a given  , but we all know that passes aren't created equal.

That is, of course, up for debate.

Ultimate thoughts: Is Rondo a good midrange shooter? Probably. Were Rondo's successful midrange shots easier attempts than, say, Chris Paul's or Russell Westbrook's? Probably. Does using the "48% from midrange" statistic in a vacuum overvalue Rondo's shooting touch? Absolutely.

Is that the end of the world? Not really.

[Celtics18]

We're just trying to figure out if Rondo's a good midrange shooter. It's preseason--have you seen our team? We need distractions.

Anyway, Numbers time!

Rondo was assisted on 23% of his 2pt shots last year. 2 point shots accounted for 89% of his shots attempted, and 81% of his shots made. Mid range shots accounted for 27% of his points.

Unfortunately, I can't seem to get the stats page to break down the midrange into assisted and non assisted. So that's annoying, and leaves us at a bit of a stalemate.


Comparatively;

Chris Paul was assisted on 17% of his shots. 2 point shots were 72% of his attempts. 26.5% of his points came from the midrange.

Russell Westbrook was assisted on 19% of his shots. 88% of his shots were 2pts. 19% of his points came from the mid range.

Tony Parker was assisted on 24.6% of his shots. 93% of his shots were 2 pointers. 24% of his points came from the mid range.

John Wall was also assisted on 24.6% of his shots. 94% shots worth 2. 28% of his points  came from the mid range.

The ghost of Steve Nash was assisted on 20% of his shots. 72% of his shots were 2 pointers. 26% of his points were from the mid range.

Steph Curry was assisted on 25% of his shots. 56% of his shots were from 2 point land, and mid range shots accounted for 22% of his points.

Link is here:

http://stats.nba.com/leaguePlayerGeneral.html?pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=25&MeasureType=Scoring&PerMode=PerGame&sortField=PCT_FGA_2PT&sortOrder=DES&filters=&PlayerPosition=G&StarterBench=Starters&PlayerExperience=Veteran

Hoopdata gives stats for that:

http://www.hoopdata.com/shotstats.aspx?team=%&type=pg&posi=PG&yr=2013&gp2=0&mins=30

TP!

So Rondo was assisted on 37% of his 16-23 ft shots, shooting about three or four a game (actual number is 3.6)

Comparatively:
Deron Williams is assisted on 51% ( ), attempted 2.8.
John Wall--33% assisted, attempted 5.5
Kyrie Irving--30% assisted, attempted 3.8
Stephen Curry--26.7% assisted, attempted 4.8
Tony Parker--24% assisted, attempted 4.8
Steve Nash--19% assisted, attempted 2.3
Chris Paul--19% assisted, attempted 3.4
Russell Westbrook--7% assisted (what's the opposite smiley of 'shocked'?), attempted 4.0

(and, for fun, Derrick Rose last season [11-12]: 14.6% assisted, attempted 3.4)


Biases:
I don't think it's a huge stretch of the imagination to say that an assisted shot is easier to hit than a non-assisted shot. Linguistically, that's almost a given  , but we all know that passes aren't created equal.

That is, of course, up for debate.

Ultimate thoughts: Is Rondo a good midrange shooter? Probably. Were Rondo's successful midrange shots easier attempts than, say, Chris Paul's or Russell Westbrook's? Probably. Does using the "48% from midrange" statistic in a vacuum overvalue Rondo's shooting touch? Absolutely.

Is that the end of the world? Not really.

I'd have to say that I agree with your conclusions.  I don't think you'll find anybody claiming that Rondo is a great jump shooter.  But, yeah, he's become pretty solid with that mid-range jump shot. 

[Bahku]

I honestly believe that now that Paul and KG are gone and Rondo is now the "elite" player, the Celtic veteran, the leader of this team, that he will feel much more comfortable about his shot, and that he will quickly develop into more of the shooter that he was in his hs/college days.

Don't forget the All-Star shootout with Kevin Durant ... this kid can drain them, even tres, he just needs the right environment for that to happen, and I don't think it was such when the Super Stars were here, (for the obvious reasons).

As a junior at Eastern High School he averaged 27.9 PPG, then, after transferring to Oak Hill Academy, averaged 22.0 PPG, finished the 2003-2004 season 38-0, and had a 55-point game, (a record surpassed only by Calvin Duncan's 61-pointer).

I believe he still has it in him to get that back. Yes, the NBA is a much different environment, but I think it's a comfort level thing with him, and I see that returning now that he's "Da Man" on this team.

[Celtics18]

We're just trying to figure out if Rondo's a good midrange shooter. It's preseason--have you seen our team? We need distractions.

Anyway, Numbers time!

Rondo was assisted on 23% of his 2pt shots last year. 2 point shots accounted for 89% of his shots attempted, and 81% of his shots made. Mid range shots accounted for 27% of his points.

Unfortunately, I can't seem to get the stats page to break down the midrange into assisted and non assisted. So that's annoying, and leaves us at a bit of a stalemate.


Comparatively;

Chris Paul was assisted on 17% of his shots. 2 point shots were 72% of his attempts. 26.5% of his points came from the midrange.

Russell Westbrook was assisted on 19% of his shots. 88% of his shots were 2pts. 19% of his points came from the mid range.

Tony Parker was assisted on 24.6% of his shots. 93% of his shots were 2 pointers. 24% of his points came from the mid range.

John Wall was also assisted on 24.6% of his shots. 94% shots worth 2. 28% of his points  came from the mid range.

The ghost of Steve Nash was assisted on 20% of his shots. 72% of his shots were 2 pointers. 26% of his points were from the mid range.

Steph Curry was assisted on 25% of his shots. 56% of his shots were from 2 point land, and mid range shots accounted for 22% of his points.

Link is here:

http://stats.nba.com/leaguePlayerGeneral.html?pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=25&MeasureType=Scoring&PerMode=PerGame&sortField=PCT_FGA_2PT&sortOrder=DES&filters=&PlayerPosition=G&StarterBench=Starters&PlayerExperience=Veteran

Hoopdata gives stats for that:

http://www.hoopdata.com/shotstats.aspx?team=%&type=pg&posi=PG&yr=2013&gp2=0&mins=30

TP!

So Rondo was assisted on 37% of his 16-23 ft shots, shooting about three or four a game (actual number is 3.6)

Comparatively:
Deron Williams is assisted on 51% ( ), attempted 2.8.
John Wall--33% assisted, attempted 5.5
Kyrie Irving--30% assisted, attempted 3.8
Stephen Curry--26.7% assisted, attempted 4.8
Tony Parker--24% assisted, attempted 4.8
Steve Nash--19% assisted, attempted 2.3
Chris Paul--19% assisted, attempted 3.4
Russell Westbrook--7% assisted (what's the opposite smiley of 'shocked'?), attempted 4.0

(and, for fun, Derrick Rose last season [11-12]: 14.6% assisted, attempted 3.4)


Biases:
I don't think it's a huge stretch of the imagination to say that an assisted shot is easier to hit than a non-assisted shot. Linguistically, that's almost a given  , but we all know that passes aren't created equal.

That is, of course, up for debate.

Ultimate thoughts: Is Rondo a good midrange shooter? Probably. Were Rondo's successful midrange shots easier attempts than, say, Chris Paul's or Russell Westbrook's? Probably. Does using the "48% from midrange" statistic in a vacuum overvalue Rondo's shooting touch? Absolutely.

Is that the end of the world? Not really.

The main thing I take away from those numbers is that Russell Westbrook is the hands-down winner of the Lousy Shot Selection Award. 

[BballTim]

I'd love Rondo to have that mid-range jumper down. I'd also love for him to improve his free throw %.

Rondo's mid-range shooting percentage was top 12 in the league last year.  For him to be a more efficient, he needs to shore things up with the short shots and the threeball.

With the space he gets from defenders for his mid-range shots, he should be top 5. If the other elite PGs received the shots he gets consistently, they'd be top 3 if not #1.

  And yet some of the other elite point guards (start with Deron/Rose/Westbrook/Parker) are regularly under 40% on their mid-range shots. If the hit their open shots as well as you say (and, let's face it, everyone gets a decent amount of open jumpers, even players like PP and Ray and KD) then they must shoot very poorly on the contested jumpers that they take. What are we calling that? Ridiculously poor shot selection?

I know we've gone over this before, so I won't go BR the numbers, but I remember finding that Rondo's midrange jumpshot was assisted on a much higher percentage than other elite point guards last year, so he's not creating a midrange shot off the dribble in the same way a Rose, a Chris Paul, or a Tony Parker would.

Which isn't a good or a bad thing, but I think that posters are keying in on Rondo's ability (or lack-thereof) to get his shot off against an opponent in a 1-on-1 situation. A nuance that isn't covered exactly by just looking at his FG%.

Of course, if memory serves, you never really addressed that point the last time I brought it up, so I won't hold my breath for an answer this time.

Not sure how I missed this one before. First of all, while it's clearly useful to compare the percentages, you need to have some idea of the actual numbers involved. In an average season Rondo probably has about 2/3 of his mid-range shots unassisted. If Rondo and another elite pg both took 10 mid-range shots, 6-7 of Rondo's would be unassisted and 8-9 of the other pg's shots would be unassisted. Not a huge difference. In fact it averages out to 2 or so more unassisted shots a week for the other pg.

If Rondo's making almost one-half of his mid-range jumpers assisted, on designed plays to get him open at the elbow, where he shoots a good percentage, then don't you have to treat those shots differently than a player like Steph Curry taking his player off the dribble or Chris Paul shooting a midrange jumper out of the pick and roll?

  I suppose, whether you're interested in pure shooting ability or in shot selection.

Secondly, you're claiming without any evidence that the difference in number of unassisted shots must be due to Rondo and other pgs trying to create those shots when it's just as likely (if not more likely) that they simply dribble up the court and take the shot if it's available whereas Rondo has the patience (and sense) to look for a better shot on a given possession. I don't think that not rushing to take low percentage shots is the problem you think it is.

The bold is another unsubstantiated claim, but that's ok, because I don't have the game tape handy to prove one way or the other.

  Sure it's unsubstantiated, hence the use of the word "likely". But the point is, you're attributing most (or all) of the difference in percentage of assisted baskets to shots the players create when they're being defended. I was just pointing out that isn't necessarily true.

  Lastly, consider what you're saying. Every conversation revolving around Rondo and his jump shot involves many comments about how Rondo isn't closely guarded by defenders and how he's taking wide open shots (and passing up other wide open shots). Now you're coming along and claiming that Rondo doesn't have more unassisted shots because he's simultaneously open and unable to get his shot off against his opponent. It's hard to characterize that claim as anything other than absurd.

You're oversimplifying my second statement. Rondo doesn't, in your words, "rush to take inefficient shots." Ok, but I've never seen him be able to get his shot off against his opponent from the midrange or deep--it doesn't seem to be a part of his game. He doesn't take shots off the dribble--he drives to the hoop.

So, when we're talking about Rondo's mid-range efficiency and how it relates to other point guards, the fact that he doesn't pull up for midrange jumpers OTD very often, and instead gets most of his midrange looks on designed plays that give him space and time to shoot, means that he's taking easier shots.

  Not for nothing, but the Celts don't run very many plays designed to get Rondo open jumpers.

That's not a bad thing,[in fact that's a good thing] but it does add a wrinkle to the idea that he's a better than average midrange shooter for the point guard position. If he's taking easier shots, shouldn't that inflate his FG%? And shouldn't that mean that we have to talk about Rondo's mid-range shooting a little differently than we talk about other elite PG's midrange shooting?

  Sure. But, again, you have to talk about both shooting ability and shot selection. It might be true that they could hit more shots if they were open more often, it's also true that they take a lot of low-percentage shots.

An final aside: I'm not sure why you're going with impossible to quantify conventional wisdom ["let's face it, everyone gets a decent amount of open jumpers, even players like PP and Ray and KD", "it's just as likely (if not more likely) that they simply dribble up the court and take the shot if it's available,"] to prove your point when you're so eager to use numbers most of the time.

   I use numbers a lot, but I also recognize their limitations. For instance, you have numbers that Rondo takes more assisted shots than other players, but those numbers don't tell you anything about under what circumstances those shots are taken, or how open any of the players are when they shoot the ball. You can, however, surmise certain things with "impossible to quantify conventional wisdom". For instance, "let's face it, everyone gets a decent amount of open jumpers, even players like PP and Ray and KD". Simple logic tells you that if a player who hits around 40% of his jumpers gets a small but reasonable percentage of open shots (and hits those at a significantly higher percentage than Rondo shot last year) then they're hitting somewhere around the mid-30% range for the bulk of their mid-range shots. The fact that they'd hit more of their shots if they were open doesn't really do much to mask that.