How Good is John Wall? Better than Rondo?

[clover]

Wall's season this year isn't even as good as Rondo's season this season. 4 more assists per game means 8 additional points scored by his team. Wall is only averaging a little more than 4 PPG more than Rondo. Then factor in Rondo rebounds more, steals more, and shoots better and that Rondo had to carry this team for most of the beginning of this year and I think Rondo's year this year is much better than Wall's.

Rondo has led the league in assists for three years with over 11 per game. He's led the league in steals. He is a constant double double guy and has been a perennial top 1-3 in the league in triple doubles for years. He's been on the All-Defense team  4 times and been a third team All-NBA.

Sorry, nothing Wall has done in one season has exceeded what Rondo has done for 2-3 of Rondo's seasons.

I guess my feeling on this is that Wall could average close to 10-11 assists per game if he had teammates who could make buckets.  In fact I think there was a statistical study done a season or two ago that suggested that the main difference in assist total between Rondo and Wall is that Rondo's teammates finish the looks he gives them more often.

  What the study showed was that Rondo's teammates finish the looks he gives them because he's a far superior passer to Wall. The Celts and Wizards finishing rate (off all plays that weren't passes from Rondo or Wall) were close to identical, the Wizards rate went up about 8% when the chances came from passes from Wall, the Celts went up by 20% when the chance came from a pass from Rondo.

I don't think Rondo could ever do what Wall has done this season, especially what he's done in the past month or two.

  I don't see why a player who can average 17/7/12 playing all of his games against top defenses that are focused on their play couldn't average 20/5/8 during a stretch of the regular season.

Also, those who talk about Rondo's edge as a defender over Wall should think back to Rondo's defensive play earlier this season and really question whether that helps their argument all that much.

  According to synergy sports Rondo's 42nd in the league in opponents ppp, Wall is 240th. Good luck with that argument.

Synergy also has Wall with a better defensive rating than Rondo.

[Fafnir]

Are we talking defensive rating like the one from bbref? That's a weighted average of the whole team's defensive play for your minutes played. The C's team defense sucked till Bradley came back so did Rondo's drtg (and everyone on the roster not KG iirc).

I really like Wall's potential as a defender, team defense especially though.

[Mike]

Did anyone else notice that Wall was flopping all over the court last night?  I was disgusted.

[SHAQATTACK]

Did anyone else notice that Wall was flopping all over the court last night?  I was disgusted.

seemed that way to me. 

[PhoSita]

  According to synergy sports Rondo's 42nd in the league in opponents ppp, Wall is 240th. Good luck with that argument.

Yeah, my point was that neither player was / has been a very good defender this season. 

Rondo had some truly atrocious games on defense this season.  Not even close to the standard he's set in previous years.

As for traditional stats, Rondo gets more steals but John Wall averages nearly a block per game (while Rondo is a non-factor as a shot-blocker).  If you look at Steals + Blocks it's pretty much even per-36 minutes.


As for the other point you made -- you're citing Rondo's playoff numbers.  I think we can agree Rondo takes it to another level in the playoffs and in certain nationally televised matchups.  I already mentioned that.  But we haven't seen that Rondo during the regular season for more than a few games at a time.


I disagree with your assertion that Rondo has risen to that level for longer during the regular season.

John Wall's split for the month of March:

17 games, 35.8 minutes per game

22.1 points, 4.8 rebounds, 8.0 assists, .484 / .455 / .826 shooting

If Rondo has produced like that for 17+ games during the regular season I'm not aware of it, or I've forgotten it.

Now, whether or not Rondo "can" do that is a different question.  I don't think Rondo "can" score as Wall has recently, but I do think he is capable of playing at a very high level for an extended period of time.  But in the regular season, he simply hasn't done it.


Regarding the assist numbers study -- from what I recall about the study, your interpretation of the results is just one interpretation.  Another is that John Wall's teammates aren't as talented as Rondo's and so they don't finish the same number of the looks he gives them.  My feeling is that the truth lies somewhere in between.  Rondo is a better passer than Wall, but Rondo's teammates have also been on a completely different level than Wall's teammates throughout their respective careers. 

Point being, if you put Rondo on the Wizards he would average more assists than Wall does, but I don't believe that he could score like that.  Similarly, if you put Wall on the Celtics, I think he would average significantly more assists than he does now, but I don't think he'd lead the league in assists.

It's my belief in both cases, though, that a player like Wall would make a bigger difference to each team's winning percentage, at least in the regular season, simply because both teams lack a young top scoring option.

[coco]

Different players.  One looks to score while the other looks to pass and pad his stats.

Rondo has better National TV stats....

[BballTim]

  According to synergy sports Rondo's 42nd in the league in opponents ppp, Wall is 240th. Good luck with that argument.

Yeah, my point was that neither player was / has been a very good defender this season. 

Rondo had some truly atrocious games on defense this season.  Not even close to the standard he's set in previous years.

As for traditional stats, Rondo gets more steals but John Wall averages nearly a block per game (while Rondo is a non-factor as a shot-blocker).  If you look at Steals + Blocks it's pretty much even per-36 minutes.

  42nd in the league is pretty good, each team has on average 1 player better than Rondo in that regard and 8 better than Wall.

As for the other point you made -- you're citing Rondo's playoff numbers.  I think we can agree Rondo takes it to another level in the playoffs and in certain nationally televised matchups.  I already mentioned that.  But we haven't seen that Rondo during the regular season for more than a few games at a time.

  Again, if you were following the team at all last year there were plenty of people who were talking about Rondo being the best pg in the game during his streak. That wasn't a few game stretch, and it wasn't the first stretch where he played at that level.

I disagree with your assertion that Rondo has risen to that level for longer during the regular season.

John Wall's split for the month of March:

17 games, 35.8 minutes per game

22.1 points, 4.8 rebounds, 8.0 assists, .484 / .455 / .826 shooting

If Rondo has produced like that for 17+ games during the regular season I'm not aware of it, or I've forgotten it.

  Rondo's had at least 3 stretches over the last few years longer than that where he's averaged more assists over that stretch of games than anyone besides Magic or Stockton ever have. You're enamored with scoring but Rondo's fully capable of dominating games without scoring and has done so frequently in the past.

Now, whether or not Rondo "can" do that is a different question.  I don't think Rondo "can" score as Wall has recently, but I do think he is capable of playing at a very high level for an extended period of time.  But in the regular season, he simply hasn't done it.

  You seem to waffle back and forth between whether he can or he can't.

Regarding the assist numbers study -- from what I recall about the study, your interpretation of the results is just one interpretation.  Another is that John Wall's teammates aren't as talented as Rondo's and so they don't finish the same number of the looks he gives them.  My feeling is that the truth lies somewhere in between.  Rondo is a better passer than Wall, but Rondo's teammates have also been on a completely different level than Wall's teammates throughout their respective careers. 

  No, my "interpretation" is simply the results of the study.

Total makes by Boston so far this year: 1166 Total Makes: 2564 Total turnovers: 500
Total non-Rondo assisted makes: 1166-231 = 935
Total non-Rondo assisted “opportunities” (attempts + turnovers): 3063 – 413 = 2650
Celts non-Rondo assisted makes/opportunities: 935/2650 = 35.3%
Celts Rondo-assisted makes/opportunities: 231/413 = 55.9%
Difference: 20.6%.

“Total opportunities: 3244. Wall assisted opportunities: 572. Non-Wall-assisted: 3244 – 572 = 2672.

Total makes: 1178. Wall assisted makes: 251. Non-wall-assisted makes: 1178-251 = 927.

Non-wall-assisted "opportunities" : 927/2672 = 34.7.
Wall-assisted: 251/572 = 43.9%.

Difference: 9.2%."


  The Wizards converted the non-Wall assisted opportunities at almost the exact same rate that the Celts converted the non-Rondo assisted opportunities, the difference between the two offenses came off of passes from those two players. They made the same number of passes and Rondo got more assists, there's nothing in the numbers to suggest that wouldn't be equally true if they switched teams.

Point being, if you put Rondo on the Wizards he would average more assists than Wall does, but I don't believe that he could score like that.  Similarly, if you put Wall on the Celtics, I think he would average significantly more assists than he does now, but I don't think he'd lead the league in assists.

  Wall's more the focal point of the offense than Rondo is for the Celts so he gets more opportunities to either score or get an assist than Rondo. Put Rondo on the Wizards and he'd get that higher usage, put Wall on the Celts and either he'd get fewer opportunities or more efficient players like PP or KG or Green probably would.

  If you assume the same assist conversion rates as the studies Wall either tries to score or get an assist 7 more times than Rondo in 36 minutes. Take those opportunities away from Wall and his numbers would look fairly pedestrian, give those opportunities to Rondo and he might give you something along the lines of 17/13 a game.

It's my belief in both cases, though, that a player like Wall would make a bigger difference to each team's winning percentage, at least in the regular season, simply because both teams lack a young top scoring option.

  Pierce is a top 15 or so scorer in the league, Green's been playing like that for a while as well and the fact than PP (or KG) aren't young doesn't hurt our winning percentage.

[BballTim]

Different players.  One looks to score while the other looks to pass and pad his stats.

Rondo has better National TV stats....

  Rondo plays big in big games (like the playoffs). Only on celticblog is this seen as a bad thing, just like only places like this consider the person who passes the ball to be padding his stats and not the guy who shoots more.

[PhoSita]

As for the other point you made -- you're citing Rondo's playoff numbers.  I think we can agree Rondo takes it to another level in the playoffs and in certain nationally televised matchups.  I already mentioned that.  But we haven't seen that Rondo during the regular season for more than a few games at a time.

  Again, if you were following the team at all last year there were plenty of people who were talking about Rondo being the best pg in the game during his streak. That wasn't a few game stretch, and it wasn't the first stretch where he played at that level.

"Plenty of people talking" is not the same as it being reality.  I paid attention to the team last season, too, and aside from the double digit assist streak -- which was nice, but overhyped -- Rondo was not the "best pg in the game" compared to Chris Paul or Russell Westbrook, in my opinion.

Now, whether or not Rondo "can" do that is a different question.  I don't think Rondo "can" score as Wall has recently, but I do think he is capable of playing at a very high level for an extended period of time.  But in the regular season, he simply hasn't done it.

  You seem to waffle back and forth between whether he can or he can't.

Not at all.  I have been pretty clear that Rondo CAN'T score the way Wall has been scoring.  He simply can't do it.  Not his game.  Can he play at a similarly high level?  Yes, but he hasn't done it during the regular season.

It's my belief in both cases, though, that a player like Wall would make a bigger difference to each team's winning percentage, at least in the regular season, simply because both teams lack a young top scoring option.

  Pierce is a top 15 or so scorer in the league, Green's been playing like that for a while as well and the fact than PP (or KG) aren't young doesn't hurt our winning percentage.

Paul Pierce is a nice scorer, but like Tim Duncan, because of his age he's ideal as a second or third option, not as the top guy carrying the team.  This has been true for a few seasons now, and it's why the team regularly goes into scoring droughts at the end of games because they don't have any scorers with enough energy at that point to still get to the rim and score or get fouled.  All they can do is hoist perimeter jumpers and hope they go in.

[Vermont Green]

Wall actually didn't have that great of a game on Sunday; 8 for 20, 10 Assists but he showed amazing strength and quickness.  Opinions clearly range on this.

And the Rondo pads his assist criticism, yes, you can try too hard to get assists just like you can try too hard to score.  Wall did seem to be looking for people just fine Sunday though.  He was trying to get people involved.

I still don't get why some people get so upset when Rondo is criticized, not that saying Wall is great, maybe better than Rondo, is really criticism.

[BballTim]

As for the other point you made -- you're citing Rondo's playoff numbers.  I think we can agree Rondo takes it to another level in the playoffs and in certain nationally televised matchups.  I already mentioned that.  But we haven't seen that Rondo during the regular season for more than a few games at a time.

  Again, if you were following the team at all last year there were plenty of people who were talking about Rondo being the best pg in the game during his streak. That wasn't a few game stretch, and it wasn't the first stretch where he played at that level.

"Plenty of people talking" is not the same as it being reality.  I paid attention to the team last season, too, and aside from the double digit assist streak -- which was nice, but overhyped -- Rondo was not the "best pg in the game" compared to Chris Paul or Russell Westbrook, in my opinion.

  Frankly "plenty of people talking" is as real as anything you've offered. Agree to disagree, I suppose. I don't see how anything either of us are saying is going to change the opinion of the other.