Is Jeff Green's contract starting to look like a bargain?

[CelticD]

i wouldnt say he's a bargain, but i think he's finally livin up to his contract. green has been playin well enough for me to say that his game against the wolves was just an off one. only 10 shots and 5 turnovers, but idk if green is all that effective if he's the first scoring option.

im glad that green is makin a more concerted effort to pass the ball and play the point forward role but he has to work on the turnovers just like pierce.


on a side note, can someone tell me how to reply to someone's individual post? i dont think im doin this right.

On the post you want to reply to, you just click the, 'quote' tab on the top right of the post. It will then set up your post with it ready to post underneath the quote. Hope this helps! 

i hope this works.

[BballTim]

I know Jeff Green fans love to gush all over his big point nights and start asking questions like "Is Jeff Green's contract starting to look like a bargain?" or "Is Jeff Green a top 5 SF" or "What other players have the skill set of Jeff Green?" after he's gone off.

Well last night should have been the big night for you. Jeff Green got to be an all-by-himself, number 1 option, playing against a bad team as a Celtic with the opportunity to show the world he has arrived and lead his team to victory with a big night.

Instead he struggled.

Jeff is a great role playing player. He is best trying to do what he does best and not much more. He can hit the long range jumper and this year he's doing it better than most year's. He can go to the hole and get his as long as its against a mismatch. If he has an above average defending small forward guarding him, he's can't do that nearly as well. He plays good perimeter defense on larger players but will never be confused with a great defender. His rebounding is loathsome as his rebounding percentage and per game numbers are embarrassing for a superior athlete of his size and strength.

And most importantly, he has done this before. He's had great 2 month stretches in the past and then gone on to fall back. he is as consistently inconsistent as any better than average player in the league.

I don't see that being worth $36 million over 4 years. Not by a long shot.

Yeah, I agree with what you're saying. But I'm curious as to what you think "being worth $36 million over 4 years" truly constitutes. In my opinion, market value is how much the market pays, and if a a certain type of player deserves just $5mil/year, but can get offers of $8mil/year from ten teams, then he's an $8mil/year player.

Do you think no other team would want Jeff (playing at his current capacity) for four years @ $9mil/year? I don't know, but that's kind of hard to believe (for me, at least. I respect your opinion)

Who, aside from Boston obviously, was going to give Jeff Green, 4 yrs, 36 million last year?

I just don't see why it has to be, who was going to give him the money last year. It's four years for a reason: Ainge believes that Jeff Green will be performing solidly at an average of $9 million, for four years. We're two-thirds of the way into the first year, and there's just no way we can decide if it's a bust or a steal.

At his current playing rate, I'm sure at least 8 teams would pay him $9 mil, guaranteed. And like I said earlier: I'm curious as to what you think "being worth $36 million over 4 years" truly constitutes. In my opinion, market value is how much the market pays, and if a a certain type of player deserves just $5mil/year, but can get offers of $8mil/year from ten teams, then he's an $8mil/year player.

I think his market value is somewhere around $9mil/year, especially if the team signing him gets him locked up for his prime.

my comment was directly to your point on market value.  If no team, aside from Boston, was going to give Jeff Green 4 yrs, 36 million, then Boston did not pay market value.

Agreed. We did not pay market value, we paid higher than market value, for whatever reason. If he turns out to actually be a $9mil/yr player, then great, we got him at his true value. If he plays to be a $7mil/yr player, we screwed up.

What do you think his market value was, and what true value will he play at for the next four (now, three and a third) years?

Given where he was I don't think he would have gotten anything more than the MLE from another team (so basically Lee or Terry's contract).  I've gone on the record many times I wouldn't have given him more than 1 year and would have gone up to 9 million in that 1 year if necessary.  Of course that is mostly because I wouldn't pay my 3rd or 4th option that much money when I don't have a 2nd or 3rd option on the roster (after KG and PP retire or move on, there is just Rondo and a bunch of role players).

  People get caught up in these silly options. Short sample size, but for the last month+ Green's only been scoring a few points a game less than Pierce, yet PP is a #1 option while Green is somehow a 3rd or 4th option.

Pierce is only a #1 option at this point by default.  He is no longer that type of player.  His numbers and efficiency are down and he doesn't have the consistency night in and night any more to be considered a #1.

  He's 14th in the league in scoring, if he'd been healthy all year he might be top 10. How many #1 scorers are in the league, 5-6? Not every team has a LeBron or KD or Kobe.

[kgainez]

To comment on last night

JG is still 14 months off heart surgery. He had played 65 minutes of continuous basketball up to that point. Plus, I continue to say JG needs to have someone create for him. He had a bunch of guys out there playing 1-on-1 or two man ball. He only got 10 shot attemps.

The game JG had 10 shot attemps after the 2nd half, he was 3/10 with 10pts. He continued to hit his next 6 or 8 shots and ended up with 27 points.

So there's that too.

Still a fair contract

[BballTim]

Playing out of position and off the bench...

You can go back and forth forever on this guy. I see both sides of it.

Which has kind of been my point the whole time. If you are truly honest with yourself and look at the whole Jeff Green package, you should be able to see both the good and the bad. You should be able to see all the reasons for failure but also see the excuses. You should see all the reasons to be hopeful but also see why he could be a false hope.

Personally, given the circumstances I would have handled the Jeff Green contract very differently. I would offered him the same one year/$9 million contract that he signed before having heart issues. If he did well, I would have given him the multi-year deal after he showed me he could perform at that level. That's basically what the C's were doing before.

Why change because of the heart issue? Actually the question should be, why once the heart issue arose did the Celtics go from a conservative attitude of short years and prove you are worth the money to a more liberal and chancy 4 year/$36 million deal?

If Green hedged because he wanted security of more years now that he had the heart issue, I would have offered him about what the Celtics offered Bass, 4 years/$24 million or so.

  I'm guessing he would have passed on a contract for 2/3 of what he's getting. But I don't think the change in the contract is because of the heart issue, I think it's because of the status of the Celtics roster. right now most of the roster is signed to multi-year deals. I think when they offered Jeff the one year deal they were much more unsure of what they were going to do when KG and Ray expired. I don't think the 4 year deal is that bad, whatever you thought he was worth when the season started he's probably worth considerably more if he finishes out the season the way he's been playing.

[Boris Badenov]

I was on record before the start of the year as saying the deal was over-paying, given what Green had done in his career to date.

But, he's having the best season of his career so far, and as I posted earlier in this thread, his salary is on par with or less than many comparable players (Gallinari, Batum, Gay, Thad Young, Kirilenko, Butler, G Wallace, Marion, MWP).

And he's making the same as John Salmons, close to Ariza, close to Prince, not much more than Luke Walton, not much more than Beasley...when you really take a look there are a ton of mediocre players out there making between $6 and $10 million a year.

I think if he can continue his production of this year to date for the next 2-3 years, he will end up being pretty fairly paid. I wouldn't call it a bargain though.

[indeedproceed]

I don't think pointing to guys who are obviously on bad contracts (MWP, Beasley, Walton, etc..) as a kind of validation of any manner on Green's contract makes much sense, because there are so many guy who are on way better contracts who are outperforming them by leaps and bounds. Jeff Green looks pretty overpaid compared to Chandler Parsons, for example.

[hpantazo]

I don't think pointing to guys who are obviously on bad contracts (MWP, Beasley, Walton, etc..) as a kind of validation of any manner on Green's contract makes much sense, because there are so many guy who are on way better contracts who are outperforming them by leaps and bounds. Jeff Green looks pretty overpaid compared to Chandler Parsons, for example.

rookie contracts are not a valid comparison

[indeedproceed]

I don't think pointing to guys who are obviously on bad contracts (MWP, Beasley, Walton, etc..) as a kind of validation of any manner on Green's contract makes much sense, because there are so many guy who are on way better contracts who are outperforming them by leaps and bounds. Jeff Green looks pretty overpaid compared to Chandler Parsons, for example.

rookie contracts are not a valid comparison

Right, I agree, but that's the point.

[Boris Badenov]

I don't think pointing to guys who are obviously on bad contracts (MWP, Beasley, Walton, etc..) as a kind of validation of any manner on Green's contract makes much sense, because there are so many guy who are on way better contracts who are outperforming them by leaps and bounds. Jeff Green looks pretty overpaid compared to Chandler Parsons, for example.

rookie contracts are not a valid comparison

Right, I agree, but that's the point.

The point as I understand it is that rookie contracts aren't set by any market - rookies can't sign with the highest bidder, so you can't use them as a measure of whether someone's underpaid or overpaid. Market value is determined in free agency (or by its possibility).

But someone willingly paid all the players on post-rookie contracts, just as the Celtics willingly paid Jeff Green. Aren't those the right contracts to use as a benchmark? Among other things, they tell us something about what other teams would be willing to bid in free agency for a player of Green's abilities.

There are, indeed, a few players who might be better deals strictly in terms of current pay for current performance: Matt Barnes, Dorell Wright, Corey Brewer, Martell Webster, Mike Dunleavy, and the like. I wouldn't argue that any of these guys is better than Green, and in many cases they have downsides that Green doesn't, but in some cases they are much cheaper.

But honestly, I can't think of any players of Green's age, at his position, offering similar performance at a much cheaper price.

[chambers]

I'll also add to this thread that many of people are not taking into account the defensive impact he has and how much pressure he takes off our team as a whole, and particularly Paul Pierce.
Imagine if we had him playing like this last year being able to switch Pierce and Green on Lebron...

His defensive impact is both important and very positive to the Celtics too. Please take that into account when scrutinizing the worth of his contract.

[Moranis]

f you restrict yourself to players who can play competently at either forward position, you have a very different conversation.

Like, when Alex Cora played for the Red Sox, he was one of the best players in the major leagues that could play second, third, and short. That didn't make him even a starting caliber player at any of those positions alone, though.

I don't think Green is a top 15 SF or a top 15 PF. He might crack the top 15 for combo forwards.

Then again, he might not. Here's a list of guys who play at least a little bit at both positions who are better-

Lebron James
Carmelo Anthony
Josh Smith
Dirk Nowitzki
Thad Young
Andrei Kirilenko
Shawn Marion
Danny Granger
David West
Paul Millsap
Ersan Ilyasova
Amir Johnson
Gallinari
Batum
Chandler Parsons

... that's 15 there.

And if you look at more or less straight SF's you can add Gay, Faried, Deng, Leonard plus guys like Turner and Ilyasova who could end up better.

Jeff Green is a solid 3/4 option for a team.  He is never going to be a 1 or 2 on a true title contending team.  He doesn't have that sort of talent or skill set.  There is after all a reason that OKC would trade him, Krstic, and a 1st for Perkins and Robinson.  I mean clearly OKC didn't value him as much of anything.

[kgainez]

I'm starting to think Jeff Green could be the #2 option next to the right PG/play maker. But I definitely think 4 is way too low for him.

[Lucky17]

I'm starting to think Jeff Green could be the #2 option next to the right PG/play maker. But I definitely think 4 is way too low for him.

In an alternate universe, imagine Jeff Green on the Blazers. What a fun lineup that would be to watch, with Lillard, Wes, Batum, and LaMarcus.