Clarification on EEI Lebron Discussion

[Rondo_is_better]

I like the idea of Durant on the C's. Would it take some serious shuffling to achieve though? Because as someone said its not worth messing with a championship-caliber squad in order to set yourself up for a shot at a guy 3 years down the road. How easily could we create the cap space though?

[rondohondo]

we would have the cap space for 2012, but we still have to sign Rondo, Perk and depends on how long we extend Ray, Paul and KG for.

KG is an unrestricted free agent in 2012 so if we resign him it would likely be around 7 mil a year

PP would likely be extended for about 10 mil a year

Rondo extended for 10 mil a year

Perk extended for about 8 MIL a year.

So if we dont sign any crazy long term deals we should have the room, but a lot can happen between now and 2012.

[Nut from Nh]

The question of how much money we're going to have to spend is a complicated one.  Assuming we add nobody, nobody opts out, and we extend Rondo a qualifying offer, here's how our cap space would look next summer:

KG: $18,866,934
Pierce: $21,513,521 ($20.7m cap hold if he opts out)
Ray: $20.7 cap hold (if renounced, $457,588 roster charge)
Perk: $4,890,208
Scal: $6,827,586 cap hold (if renounced, $457,588 roster charge)
Tony: $ 5,000,000 cap hold (if renounced, $457,588 roster charge)
Eddie: $ 5,724,000 cap hold (if renounced, $457,588 roster charge)
Rondo:  $6,284,766 (could change if the Celtics sign him to a contract)
Giddens: $1,100,640 (option; must be decided by 10/31/09)
Walker:  $854,389
Cap hold: $457,588
Cap hold: $457,588

So, assuming Pierce comes back, and we keep Walker, but assuming we renounce all other free agents, we're looking at:

KG: $18,866,934
Pierce: $21,513,521
Perk: $4,890,208
Walker:  $854,389
Rondo:  $6,284,766
Cap hold: $457,588
Cap hold: $457,588
Cap hold: $457,588
Cap hold: $457,588
Cap hold: $457,588
Cap hold: $457,588
Cap hold: $457,588
--------------------
Total:  $55,612,934

As discussed previously, that's not looking so great, if the salary cap is around $58 million in 2010 (which assumes that revenues stay flat, rather than declining further).

Now, if Paul opts out, and *immediately* agrees to a $10 million salary, here's what we're looking at:

KG: $18,866,934
Pierce: $10,000,000
Perk: $4,890,208
Walker:  $854,389
Rondo:  $6,284,766
Cap hold: $457,588
Cap hold: $457,588
Cap hold: $457,588
Cap hold: $457,588
Cap hold: $457,588
Cap hold: $457,588
Cap hold: $457,588
--------------------
Total:  $44,099,413

With a $58 million cap, this *still* leaves us only $14 million below the salary cap.  A "max contract" for somebody of Lebron's tenure will be roughly $17 - $17.5 million.  That means to create that much more cap space, we'd need to get Paul to agree to take a pay cut down to $7 million or less.

Of course, as winsomme says, the team could also clear Rondo's salary.  By trading him for a future draft pick, or for an expiring contract this season, the $6.2 million cap hold would disappear.  Also, Rondo could forego restricted free agency (which would be a terrible decision for him) and immediately decide to play for the $3,018,783 qualifying offer (which would reduce his cap hit by about $3 million).  Last, Rondo could resign with the Celts (or they could match an offer sheet), which means his actual contract would count against the cap.

I know that's confusing, but the most important thing to take away from this is that the only realistic way we can keep Pierce, Rondo, Perk, KG, and max free agent is to have Pierce agree to play for roughly $6 - $7 million next season (meaning a $14.5 million pay cut).  I can't see it.

That is a lot...  So let me ask this, I don't think you gave the cap impact of Pierce agreeing to play for 6-8 milion AND Rondo was traded for an expiring deal this year?  I think someone else said wee would have right around 19 milion, is that correct?  That's max deal territory. 

Now, question 2: same scenacrio as above with PP and Rondo gone, but Perk has been traded for a draft pick... what would we look like then?

There are so many rumors and we don't know what is "based on a true story" but as Jeff said it got distorted like the game telephone.  But Danny came right out and said his goal this summer was to set the C's up to win a championship next year.  That sounds like reassurance from a man who is trying to say "don't worry fans, we're not trying to set up for 2010".  And based on some rumors, it looks like Danny could be investigating situations where he could set the team up to win this year, but really realign the team for the future next year. 

I worship Rondo, my favorite player by far since the moment he replaced my old favorite player in the lineup - D West.  But if Danny trades him he would only do it if it were a power move.  An Al Jefferson power move, multiple titles type move. 

The two rumors most talked about and written about is Memphis and PHX. If Danny's strategy is to compete this year but totally set the team up for a long long time of championship runs next year then these two rumors might be his investigation into what it takes to do that. 

Amare is young.  Maybe the real discussion was to try to get Amare for Ray and filler w/o trading Rondo.  Maybe Danny was thinking he could put Amare and KG into the lineup and that's why he looked at moving Perk, Thabeet off the bench just for some D? 

Maybe Danny was trying for Ray / Rondo and filler for Amare AND Nash, and then looked to get Perk off the books to set up for 2010.  But then we would still have a lineup of Nash, PP, unknown, Amare and KG. 

I don't know, but everyone seems pretty confident.  Wyc is saying they'll be offering max deals, Danny is saying ya but we're trying to win this year too, KG is promising 2 rings in a row, and PP is calling the Magic poodles, and the C's will be back.

Lots of confidence and optomism, I like that

[Roy Hobbs]

That is a lot...  So let me ask this, I don't think you gave the cap impact of Pierce agreeing to play for 6-8 milion AND Rondo was traded for an expiring deal this year?  I think someone else said wee would have right around 19 milion, is that correct?  That's max deal territory. 

I mean, sure, if we dumped Rondo for a future pick (i.e., basically nothing), didn't bring Ray back, and Pierce agreed to a $15 million pay cut, we'd be able to sign a free agent to a max contract.  We'd have about $23 - $25 million in cap space.  However, I think that scenario is extraordinarily unlikely.  I especially don't see why Pierce would agree to a $15 million paycut if we've just traded the starting point guard for a future pick.
 

[Nut from Nh]

That is a lot...  So let me ask this, I don't think you gave the cap impact of Pierce agreeing to play for 6-8 milion AND Rondo was traded for an expiring deal this year?  I think someone else said wee would have right around 19 milion, is that correct?  That's max deal territory. 

I mean, sure, if we dumped Rondo for a future pick (i.e., basically nothing), didn't bring Ray back, and Pierce agreed to a $15 million pay cut, we'd be able to sign a free agent to a max contract.  We'd have about $23 - $25 million in cap space.  However, I think that scenario is extraordinarily unlikely.  I especially don't see why Pierce would agree to a $15 million paycut if we've just traded the starting point guard for a future pick.
 

Not quite the way you put it...  Rondo for a pick or Perk for a pick and any player in the final year of his contract - Nash and many many other players that I myself wouldn't quite clasify as basically nothing but...

If Danny pulled that off I don't think PP wouldn't be sweating Rondo too much in my opinion if your looking at giving him a max guy the ilk of Wade/Bosh/Bron to go with him and KG, plus whatever that expiring player was, the basically nothing player, could def sign up for cheap bucks to stay with the team and the superstar they just brought on. Not saying its likely, but I also don't think you framed it the right way as far as basically nothing goes.

[Roy Hobbs]

That is a lot...  So let me ask this, I don't think you gave the cap impact of Pierce agreeing to play for 6-8 milion AND Rondo was traded for an expiring deal this year?  I think someone else said wee would have right around 19 milion, is that correct?  That's max deal territory. 

I mean, sure, if we dumped Rondo for a future pick (i.e., basically nothing), didn't bring Ray back, and Pierce agreed to a $15 million pay cut, we'd be able to sign a free agent to a max contract.  We'd have about $23 - $25 million in cap space.  However, I think that scenario is extraordinarily unlikely.  I especially don't see why Pierce would agree to a $15 million paycut if we've just traded the starting point guard for a future pick.
 

Not quite the way you put it...  Rondo for a pick or Perk for a pick and any player in the final year of his contract - Nash and many many other players that I myself wouldn't quite clasify as basically nothing but...

If Danny pulled that off I don't think PP wouldn't be sweating Rondo too much in my opinion if your looking at giving him a max guy the ilk of Wade/Bosh/Bron to go with him and KG, plus whatever that expiring player was, the basically nothing player, could def sign up for cheap bucks to stay with the team and the superstar they just brought on. Not saying its likely, but I also don't think you framed it the right way as far as basically nothing goes.

If we trade Rondo or Perk for an expiring contract, obviously that contract needs to expire for us to get any benefit out of it.  We'd then have to renounce the new player, and wouldn't be resigning him (as we could only sign him using remaining cap room -- which would be pretty much non-existent -- or with the minimum.)  So, why would Pierce care if we got Steve Nash, if it was only for a year?

I really think people need to get the idea of Pierce giving up $15 million out of their heads.  It's not going to happen, and we're not going to trade Rondo without making our team better this season.

[indeedproceed]

That is a lot...  So let me ask this, I don't think you gave the cap impact of Pierce agreeing to play for 6-8 milion AND Rondo was traded for an expiring deal this year?  I think someone else said wee would have right around 19 milion, is that correct?  That's max deal territory. 

I mean, sure, if we dumped Rondo for a future pick (i.e., basically nothing), didn't bring Ray back, and Pierce agreed to a $15 million pay cut, we'd be able to sign a free agent to a max contract.  We'd have about $23 - $25 million in cap space.  However, I think that scenario is extraordinarily unlikely.  I especially don't see why Pierce would agree to a $15 million paycut if we've just traded the starting point guard for a future pick.
 

Not quite the way you put it...  Rondo for a pick or Perk for a pick and any player in the final year of his contract - Nash and many many other players that I myself wouldn't quite clasify as basically nothing but...

If Danny pulled that off I don't think PP wouldn't be sweating Rondo too much in my opinion if your looking at giving him a max guy the ilk of Wade/Bosh/Bron to go with him and KG, plus whatever that expiring player was, the basically nothing player, could def sign up for cheap bucks to stay with the team and the superstar they just brought on. Not saying its likely, but I also don't think you framed it the right way as far as basically nothing goes.

If we trade Rondo or Perk for an expiring contract, obviously that contract needs to expire for us to get any benefit out of it.  We'd then have to renounce the new player, and wouldn't be resigning him.  So, why would Pierce care if we got Steve Nash, if it was only for a year?

I really think people need to get the idea of Pierce giving up $15 million out of their heads.  It's not going to happen, and we're not going to trade Rondo without making our team better this season.

Exactly.

[PutBackDunk]

That is a lot...  So let me ask this, I don't think you gave the cap impact of Pierce agreeing to play for 6-8 milion AND Rondo was traded for an expiring deal this year?  I think someone else said wee would have right around 19 milion, is that correct?  That's max deal territory. 

I mean, sure, if we dumped Rondo for a future pick (i.e., basically nothing), didn't bring Ray back, and Pierce agreed to a $15 million pay cut, we'd be able to sign a free agent to a max contract.  We'd have about $23 - $25 million in cap space.  However, I think that scenario is extraordinarily unlikely.  I especially don't see why Pierce would agree to a $15 million paycut if we've just traded the starting point guard for a future pick.
 

Not quite the way you put it...  Rondo for a pick or Perk for a pick and any player in the final year of his contract - Nash and many many other players that I myself wouldn't quite clasify as basically nothing but...

If Danny pulled that off I don't think PP wouldn't be sweating Rondo too much in my opinion if your looking at giving him a max guy the ilk of Wade/Bosh/Bron to go with him and KG, plus whatever that expiring player was, the basically nothing player, could def sign up for cheap bucks to stay with the team and the superstar they just brought on. Not saying its likely, but I also don't think you framed it the right way as far as basically nothing goes.

If we trade Rondo or Perk for an expiring contract, obviously that contract needs to expire for us to get any benefit out of it.  We'd then have to renounce the new player, and wouldn't be resigning him (as we could only sign him using remaining cap room -- which would be pretty much non-existent -- or with the minimum.)  So, why would Pierce care if we got Steve Nash, if it was only for a year?

I really think people need to get the idea of Pierce giving up $15 million out of their heads.  It's not going to happen, and we're not going to trade Rondo without making our team better this season.

That's yet another reason why 2011 seems to be the target year to 'make a splash.' Pierce's situation will have played itself out and most likely we bring him back for a few years on the cheap that summer, KG will be in his final year, Rondo/BBD's contracts will be set in stone (and not speculation as they are now), and the players who didn't opt out next summer and stayed for their final contract year (plus some others like Melo) will be available.