Clarification on EEI Lebron Discussion

[Nut from Nh]

Everyone can feel free to mock me and send death threats, but this post is issued to CLARIFY what Steved24 was trying to ask about with respect to an EEI discussion yesterday.  I listened to the entire discussion which lasted well over 40 minutes.  Drive from Lexington to NH on a Friday evening and you have a lot more than 40 minutes to listen to the radio 

EEI discussed a rumor (did not name source) centering around Nash for Rondo.  They drew their own conclusion that obviously Ray would be involved, and there would probably be filler. 

Then, and this is where I think the value of this post comes in because I have questions for the Hobbs types and others who better understand the cap-ology of the league... THEN they SPECULATED that the deal would be done so that the C's would have an opportunity to offer a max deal to either Bron or Wade.  THEY DID NOT report that Wade and Bron said they "wanted to come to Boston" they discussed that obviously the C's would have a core of Pierce and KG and that we could offer Wade or Bron the opportunity to join those two and make a run for multiple titles. They SPECULATED that PP could sign on for far less money when his deal is up to ride out the next couple years and win some more rings while giving us the finacial flexability to bring in more younger players to support the core of KG, Bron and himself.  Again 99% of the discussion was speculation that started by the Nash rumor.  I have heard the Nash rumor before but Chad Ford didn't himself whisper it in my ear so I never said anything for fear of the certain death threats and attacks 

QUESTION-  How does that even make sense?  Say we dump Ray and Rondo for Nash and filler or even Nash and Amare which is a rumor that has been out there on the radio before, but it's stupid so don't beat me up... I'm just saying there seems to be Suns C's rumors for sure.  Say we do that, how does that enable us to make a max offer next year?  Ray expires, but so does Nash, so what is the difference?  EEI was saying the money we would have to spend on Rondo could be used with the cash coming off the books from Nash to offer a max deal to Bron or Wade, but I don't get that. 

To Hobbs and capologists I ask, is that possible and if so please explain how.  I think this is a good example of why people shouldn't get mocked and ridiculed if they post in here.  I think debating the strategy and wether or not it could work is interesting, which doesn't mean you have to believe EEI about the Nash part.  But guys, we got Wyc saying we will be in position to offer a max deal, now Wyc could be confused or stupid or both.. or he could have been assuming the team is going to execute a strategy this summer that we are not privy to.  THAT strategy as it relates to rumors, is worth discussion in my opinion. 

To clarify - Bron and Wade DID NOT say they wanted to come here. 

[Celtic]

Problem is the guys on WEEI have zero knowledge of the salary cap, they throw these ideas around and have no idea that what they are saying makes no sense, then the callers who also don't understand the cap start reinforcing these notions, all the while not knowing how ridiculous what they are saying is. As you said unloading Ray for Nash would not lead to signing Lebron, Roy has listed before the steps that would be required for the C's to offer a max contract and it is lengthy to say the least. I'm sure he'll be around here to clarify soon.

Side note, Steve Burton is absolutely crazy, he said multiple times that he wouldn't deal Rondo for Wade, only Lebron. Dwyane Wade is an insane player and is better than Rondo will ever be, and I love Rondo, Rondo may someday be a star, but Wade is a SUPERSTAR.

[winsomme]

here's my understanding of our money situation going into the 2010 off season if we sign no more deals past this upcoming season and don't trade Rondo:

on the books, we will have:

KG - 19 million
Paul - 21 million (player option)
Perk - 4 million
Rondo - probably somewhere in the 8-11 million range (due for extension)

we also would have cap holds for every other roster spot not filled at the time and holds on the team otptions for Walker and Giddens. (not sure when we have to decide to pick those up or not).

anyway, as i understand it,  if we trade Rondo for an expiring contract or a draft pick, we would avoid having to add the big raise he is due for in that off season. Also, we could possibly work a new long term contract with Paul if opts out of the final year of his deal, that pays him less money per year, but pays him for more years total.

the long and the short of it is if we trade Rondo, we can have only three (four if we trade him for a top pick in this draft) contracts on the books for the big 2010 FA class.

KG - 19 million
Paul - 15 million
Perk - 4 million
#2 pick - 4 million

add on cap holds and let's put that at 45 million. If the cap is in the 60 million range, then we have 15 million to spend in 2010.

if we trade Rondo in deal for expiring contracts (like Nash) and not a high pick, then we have closer to 19 million....which would be enough to land a max FA in 2010.

that's how it looks to me at the moment....

[Chris]

I listened to this discussion too, and it was just Dennis and Callahan (mostly Callahan) completely misunderstanding the Amare rumors, and Wyc's comments the other day.  Callahan turned them into his own idea that the C's would trade Rondo for Nash (which doesn't work on so many levels), and then use the cap savings from that (which dont actually exist) to go after Lebron or Wade.

So let's be completely clear, this was not a new rumor they were discussing, this was three guys (Meter was playing along too) who know nothing about the salary cap or the current state of the NBA, trying to make discussion out of nothing, after interviewing Rondo.

My favorite part of the whole thing was that John Dennis (who was arguing against trading Rondo), kept saying that the C's were 1 win away from being in the finals this year. 

Listening to the whole thing was infuriating, and I would like to take this opportunity to the other people on the road on Friday, because I may have been exhibiting a little too much road rage after listening to those idiots.

[Roy Hobbs]

The question of how much money we're going to have to spend is a complicated one.  Assuming we add nobody, nobody opts out, and we extend Rondo a qualifying offer, here's how our cap space would look next summer:

KG: $18,866,934
Pierce: $21,513,521 ($20.7m cap hold if he opts out)
Ray: $20.7 cap hold (if renounced, $457,588 roster charge)
Perk: $4,890,208
Scal: $6,827,586 cap hold (if renounced, $457,588 roster charge)
Tony: $ 5,000,000 cap hold (if renounced, $457,588 roster charge)
Eddie: $ 5,724,000 cap hold (if renounced, $457,588 roster charge)
Rondo:  $6,284,766 (could change if the Celtics sign him to a contract)
Giddens: $1,100,640 (option; must be decided by 10/31/09)
Walker:  $854,389
Cap hold: $457,588
Cap hold: $457,588

So, assuming Pierce comes back, and we keep Walker, but assuming we renounce all other free agents, we're looking at:

KG: $18,866,934
Pierce: $21,513,521
Perk: $4,890,208
Walker:  $854,389
Rondo:  $6,284,766
Cap hold: $457,588
Cap hold: $457,588
Cap hold: $457,588
Cap hold: $457,588
Cap hold: $457,588
Cap hold: $457,588
Cap hold: $457,588
--------------------
Total:  $55,612,934

As discussed previously, that's not looking so great, if the salary cap is around $58 million in 2010 (which assumes that revenues stay flat, rather than declining further).

Now, if Paul opts out, and *immediately* agrees to a $10 million salary, here's what we're looking at:

KG: $18,866,934
Pierce: $10,000,000
Perk: $4,890,208
Walker:  $854,389
Rondo:  $6,284,766
Cap hold: $457,588
Cap hold: $457,588
Cap hold: $457,588
Cap hold: $457,588
Cap hold: $457,588
Cap hold: $457,588
Cap hold: $457,588
--------------------
Total:  $44,099,413

With a $58 million cap, this *still* leaves us only $14 million below the salary cap.  A "max contract" for somebody of Lebron's tenure will be roughly $17 - $17.5 million.  That means to create that much more cap space, we'd need to get Paul to agree to take a pay cut down to $7 million or less.

Of course, as winsomme says, the team could also clear Rondo's salary.  By trading him for a future draft pick, or for an expiring contract this season, the $6.2 million cap hold would disappear.  Also, Rondo could forego restricted free agency (which would be a terrible decision for him) and immediately decide to play for the $3,018,783 qualifying offer (which would reduce his cap hit by about $3 million).  Last, Rondo could resign with the Celts (or they could match an offer sheet), which means his actual contract would count against the cap.

I know that's confusing, but the most important thing to take away from this is that the only realistic way we can keep Pierce, Rondo, Perk, KG, and max free agent is to have Pierce agree to play for roughly $6 - $7 million next season (meaning a $14.5 million pay cut).  I can't see it.

[rondohondo]

wow what a bunch of morons . I guess anyone can get a sports talk show , you just have to be annoying as hell like meter that little weasel.

[Chris]

wow what a bunch of morons . I guess anyone can get a sports talk show , you just have to be annoying as hell like meter that little weasel.

Well, to their credit, they get people to listen to them, and that is all that matters.  And the fact that there were plenty of people who called in, and bought into their discussions show why they can be successful. 

They know they don't have to be incredibly knowledgeable about everything, because people will still listen, if only to get angry at them. 

[PutBackDunk]

Great post, Roy.

I knew about the cap holds, but I've never heard of the roster charge for each player under 12 total. That certainly changes things when we're talking about the difference between $14 million or so and a full max contract for a player 7 years into his career.

I believe (and of course, correct me if I'm wrong) how the eligibility for roster exceptions is determined is before free agency starts the league adds the team's salary and all of the exceptions that the team could have for the upcomming year together, and if the team would be over the cap they get those exceptions, right? Well do they include cap holds in that situation?

If so, Pierce's (and I guess Ray's) cap hold would make us eligible for the MLE and other exceptions to help fill in the roster if we did sign a near-max player in 2010.

I'm fine with the team only adding to the bench with vet minimum contracts/a portion of the MLE/other exceptions this year, but when you see the medley of things that have fall in place to even offer someone a near-max deal next summer it makes me think Wyc threw it out there as a possibility to justify not making any significant moves this summer. Which again, I'm fine with the team not doing anything major this year.

[bknova]

I think all this is analysis is uneccessary.  Danny's making plans to grab a big time young guy max contract player, but that guy's name isn't James, nor Wade, nor Bosh, nor Stoudemire....Nope.  Thats not it.

Danny laid the groundwork for this a couple years back.  A young fellow by the name of Durant will be the apple of Danny's eye.  He was ready to take Durant ahead of Oden.  He got in trouble for spending a great deal of time with Kevin's parents and the boy himself.  He's compared Durant to Larry Bird, without the passing skills. 

A Rondo, Kevin Durant, Perkins core to succeed the current group???

[Roy Hobbs]

He got in trouble for spending a great deal of time with Kevin's parents and the boy himself. 

I thought he sat next to Durant's mom at a game, which according to him was coincidental?  When did he get in trouble for spending time with Durant?

I do agree, though, that it makes sense to try to go "all in" in the summer of 2012.  The problem is, Durant may never hit unrestricted free agency, as there's no way OKC would ever let him sign elsewhere as a restricted free agent.

[rondohondo]

He got in trouble for spending a great deal of time with Kevin's parents and the boy himself. 

I thought he sat next to Durant's mom at a game, which according to him was coincidental?  When did he get in trouble for spending time with Durant?

I do agree, though, that it makes sense to try to go "all in" in the summer of 2012.  The problem is, Durant may never hit unrestricted free agency, as there's no way OKC would ever let him sign elsewhere as a restricted free agent.

Do you really think a player of Durant's caliber wants to spend his entire career in a small market like OKC? I think he will go to a big market club just like Lebron will.

[Roy Hobbs]

He got in trouble for spending a great deal of time with Kevin's parents and the boy himself. 

I thought he sat next to Durant's mom at a game, which according to him was coincidental?  When did he get in trouble for spending time with Durant?

I do agree, though, that it makes sense to try to go "all in" in the summer of 2012.  The problem is, Durant may never hit unrestricted free agency, as there's no way OKC would ever let him sign elsewhere as a restricted free agent.

Do you really think a player of Durant's caliber wants to spend his entire career in a small market like OKC? I think he will go to a big market club just like Lebron will.

Maybe.  However, even Rondo signed an extension to his rookie contract.  If he signs a contract as a restricted free agent, OKC will match.  If he decides not to sign an extension in OKC, he'll be playing in 2011 for his $7,900,030 qualifying offer.  Will he choose to do that, when he'd be able to almost double that salary (and have long-term security) by agreeing to a max contract?

[rondohondo]

He got in trouble for spending a great deal of time with Kevin's parents and the boy himself. 

I thought he sat next to Durant's mom at a game, which according to him was coincidental?  When did he get in trouble for spending time with Durant?

I do agree, though, that it makes sense to try to go "all in" in the summer of 2012.  The problem is, Durant may never hit unrestricted free agency, as there's no way OKC would ever let him sign elsewhere as a restricted free agent.

Do you really think a player of Durant's caliber wants to spend his entire career in a small market like OKC? I think he will go to a big market club just like Lebron will.

Maybe.  However, even Rondo signed an extension to his rookie contract.  If he signs a contract as a restricted free agent, OKC will match.  If he decides not to sign an extension in OKC, he'll be playing in 2011 for his $7,900,030 qualifying offer.  Will he choose to do that, when he'd be able to almost double that salary (and have long-term security) by agreeing to a max contract?

Well I think if he was in a big market like NY,LA,CHI or BOS  he could easily make up that money and some in endorsements.

Is there a set amount of years he would have to be signed for at 7MIL if he was signed as a restricted free agent?


EDIT

Opps I read that wrong

[Roy Hobbs]

He got in trouble for spending a great deal of time with Kevin's parents and the boy himself. 

I thought he sat next to Durant's mom at a game, which according to him was coincidental?  When did he get in trouble for spending time with Durant?

I do agree, though, that it makes sense to try to go "all in" in the summer of 2012.  The problem is, Durant may never hit unrestricted free agency, as there's no way OKC would ever let him sign elsewhere as a restricted free agent.

Do you really think a player of Durant's caliber wants to spend his entire career in a small market like OKC? I think he will go to a big market club just like Lebron will.

Maybe.  However, even Rondo signed an extension to his rookie contract.  If he signs a contract as a restricted free agent, OKC will match.  If he decides not to sign an extension in OKC, he'll be playing in 2011 for his $7,900,030 qualifying offer.  Will he choose to do that, when he'd be able to almost double that salary (and have long-term security) by agreeing to a max contract?

Well I think if he was in a big market like NY,LA,CHI or BOS  he could easily make up that money and some in endorsements.

Is there a set amount of years he would have to be signed for at 7MIL if he was signed as a restricted free agent?

If he plays for his qualifying offer, he plays for one year at $7.9 million.

If he signs an offer sheet with another team as a restricted free agent, he can earn a max contract for up to five years, with an annual raise capped at 8% of the first year value.  OKC would have the right to match this offer.

If he signs with OKC, he can sign a max contract for up to six years, with an annual raise capped at 10.5% of the first year value.

[steve]

I don't think its smart to shuffle your playoff team around for a chance at signing a player in 3 years. 

I will predict that Durant will play most of his career for Mark Cuban.