Author Topic: Doc states the obvious: Rondo's jumper needs work  (Read 13099 times)

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Re: Doc states the obvious: Rondo's jumper needs work
« Reply #45 on: August 16, 2010, 04:43:10 PM »

Offline BballTim

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Daniels is not a poor midrange shooter. He just has no range. He can't shoot 3's.

  These definitions seem to vary from person to person. A few days ago someone told me that Rondo was a poor midrange shooter because of his percentages in the 16-23 foot range. Daniels isn't horrible from inside 16 feet, but worse than Rondo (which is probably neither here nor there).

Re: Doc states the obvious: Rondo's jumper needs work
« Reply #46 on: August 16, 2010, 07:12:53 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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Okay, but we both agree that Rondo is a poor shooter

  Yes, he's a below average jump shooter.

Are you denying that defenses play Rondo differently that just about any other guard in the league?  Rondo can basically have a jump shot anytime he wants.  This simply isn't the case with most other players.  And in most cases, defenders DO make a valid attempt to contest shots; not necessarily to try and block it but at least to disrupt it.  In Rondo's case, you often see a guy not even contest the shot.  They basically stand there and dare him shoot.

  I don't think that it's meaningful to discuss this in the offseason (it would be much easier if there were games to watch) but I'd say that a fair amount of 20 foot jumpshots are either uncontested or lightly contested. I don't think that all of these shots are closed out, which you seem to be claiming. I'd have to watch some games to tell if it's the same players that don't tend to get closed out when they get the ball 20 feet from the hoop.

  I've never denied that Rondo gets guarded differently some of the time. But I also think that if you took another poor shooting point guard and put him on a team with Pierce and Allen and Garnett they would be guarded the same way. It's not like they invented this type of defense for Rondo. Teams used to use it on DJ in the 80s. By the same token, when we played the Lakers, if Magic was on the outside without the ball his defender would be in the paint.

  Evidence?  I am not sure this is true at all.  I am thinking that players around the league go every which way.  Some may improve steadily throughout their career, some stay the same, and some also regress.  I am thikning there are few examples of players that actually improved a facet of their game as dramatically as many wont Rondo to improve his shooting

  I don't think this is the case, For one thing, I think there was an article on espn (something like "who's the best shooter of all time") that mentioned that most players see their fg% increase later in their careers. Secondly, while I was mainly checking guards on the main "Players" page on basketballreference that would have played during the three point era, the increase in the late 70s occurred almost every time, and many of them were poor shooters earlier on.

  I don't think it would be unusual at all for Rondo to stay about where he is as a shooter.  Look at last year's team.  Is anyone wondering why Quis or TA couldn't shoot?  After a while, guys are what they are.  And I think we have reached that point with Rondo


  First of all, TA and Daniels are both 4-5 years older than Rondo. If he were 28 I'd agree that he is what he is. Secondly, those two have probably combined for 2-3 healthy seasons in their careers, and neither of them generally play regular minutes.
There is another reason why I expect Rondo to improve more than Quis and TA. Rondo is not a marginal player. He can concentrate on improving his weak spots, where the other two constantly need to find a niche.
Of course, if the other two could improve their shooting, they likely wouldn't be marginal players.

 Marquis hit about 46% of his 16-23 foot jumpers, well above average. Probably the best jump shooting of his career. Does that mean he *wasn't* marginal this year? That he didn't lose almost all of his minutes to someone who's outside shooting percentage from 82games was approximately half of Daniel's percentage?
There go those stats again.  Look, Quis isn't a very good shooter and he has very limited range.  I don't need to look at stats to know that.  If he were the shooter that say PP is, then yes, he would be a much better player. 

And how do Quis' "shooting" stats compare to PP's?  If they are better or about the same (and I have NO idea), then that will tell you all you need to know about shooting stats.

  Of course Paul's eFG% on jumpers is much better and Quis', and that's with players all over Pierce when he shoots. For the record, when I talk about players improving their shooting I'm not discussing the kind of unheard of transformation you seem to be discussing. I'm talking about Rondo going from below average to close to average, you're talking about players going from below average to being among the best in the league.
I'm not talking about Rondo becoming a great shooter either.  I don't think he will ever even become an average shooter (whatever that means).  Point being, will Rondo ever consistently shoot better than he is now.  And by that I mean, will his shooting trajectory truly be above what it is now for any significant portion (i.e., several years) of his career?

I am saying that it won't.  I believe he may experience a blip here and there but when we step back and look at his career numbers (in the distant future), his numbers will stay at or very close to where they are now.

But you're right.  I think there are a number of fans that believe (hope?) that with enough practice, Rondo can become an above average shooter at some point in his career.  I just don't see that.