Author Topic: Doc states the obvious: Rondo's jumper needs work  (Read 13099 times)

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Re: Doc states the obvious: Rondo's jumper needs work
« Reply #15 on: August 13, 2010, 11:40:29 AM »

Offline Bahku

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Re: Doc states the obvious: Rondo's jumper needs work
« Reply #16 on: August 13, 2010, 11:43:33 AM »

Offline housecall

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I have said this over and over and over again.  But I would be shocked if Rondo ever developed a consistent jump shot.  I just think his time has passed to become good at it.
TP...he's going into yr.#5.My experiences has been either you got 90%of it and develop the other 10%.He never seem to have anywhere near a decent jumper to work with.(IMO)

Re: Doc states the obvious: Rondo's jumper needs work
« Reply #17 on: August 13, 2010, 12:10:49 PM »

Offline BballTim

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I have said this over and over and over again.  But I would be shocked if Rondo ever developed a consistent jump shot.  I just think his time has passed to become good at it.
TP...he's going into yr.#5.My experiences has been either you got 90%of it and develop the other 10%.He never seem to have anywhere near a decent jumper to work with.(IMO)

  This isn't the case at all. It's hard to show with the older players, but if you just check out the 3 point stats for many good/great players (or even average players) it's pretty typical for them to show a good jump in their 3 point fg% in their mid-late 20s. It's probably less common for players to *not* improve than for them to improve.

  It's less common for players to significantly improve their foul shooting as most of the players were good foul shooters from early on but some of the poorer foul shooters did improve when they were just past Rondo's age/experience level. Again, I didn't check a ton of players and most of them were great players but I'd say (without rechecking) that most of Tony Parker, Gary Payton, Mark Jackson and Rod Strickland improved. Again, most of the players I looked at were good ft shooters from the start, but the poor ft shooters that I happened to come across were more likely to improve than not.

Re: Doc states the obvious: Rondo's jumper needs work
« Reply #18 on: August 13, 2010, 12:33:05 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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I have said this over and over and over again.  But I would be shocked if Rondo ever developed a consistent jump shot.  I just think his time has passed to become good at it.
TP...he's going into yr.#5.My experiences has been either you got 90%of it and develop the other 10%.He never seem to have anywhere near a decent jumper to work with.(IMO)

  This isn't the case at all. It's hard to show with the older players, but if you just check out the 3 point stats for many good/great players (or even average players) it's pretty typical for them to show a good jump in their 3 point fg% in their mid-late 20s. It's probably less common for players to *not* improve than for them to improve.

  It's less common for players to significantly improve their foul shooting as most of the players were good foul shooters from early on but some of the poorer foul shooters did improve when they were just past Rondo's age/experience level. Again, I didn't check a ton of players and most of them were great players but I'd say (without rechecking) that most of Tony Parker, Gary Payton, Mark Jackson and Rod Strickland improved. Again, most of the players I looked at were good ft shooters from the start, but the poor ft shooters that I happened to come across were more likely to improve than not.
But my point is that Rondo basically had to start over when he got into the NBA.  I saw plenty of his games at Kentucky and his jump shot was on the level of Ben Wallace.  So indeed, he has ALREADY come a long way. 

For most other players, it is about refining and repetition when they get into to the league.  For Rondo, it was much more than that.

Re: Doc states the obvious: Rondo's jumper needs work
« Reply #19 on: August 13, 2010, 12:45:57 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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maybe he can take some pointers from Shaq on how to improve his dreadful free-throw shooting.

Re: Doc states the obvious: Rondo's jumper needs work
« Reply #20 on: August 13, 2010, 12:52:21 PM »

Offline guava_wrench

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Not all 7'people(players)have big hands just as not all 5'people(players)have small hands.Yao has never been known for having big hands or palming the ball.Actually,i can't remember once i ever saw Yao palm the ball.Foul shooting is focus and loads of repetition involved.
Tim Duncan is not a good FT shooter, but he has a better midrange jumper than Rondo. I don't buy the hand size excuse.

What about the guys who don't have big hands who shoot poorly? Why shouldn't the reasons for them be the same as the reasons for someone like Rondo?

Is there any study supporting these big hand claims?

Rondo just focused on refining different traits when he was developing.

Re: Doc states the obvious: Rondo's jumper needs work
« Reply #21 on: August 13, 2010, 01:11:03 PM »

Offline BballTim

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I have said this over and over and over again.  But I would be shocked if Rondo ever developed a consistent jump shot.  I just think his time has passed to become good at it.
TP...he's going into yr.#5.My experiences has been either you got 90%of it and develop the other 10%.He never seem to have anywhere near a decent jumper to work with.(IMO)

  This isn't the case at all. It's hard to show with the older players, but if you just check out the 3 point stats for many good/great players (or even average players) it's pretty typical for them to show a good jump in their 3 point fg% in their mid-late 20s. It's probably less common for players to *not* improve than for them to improve.

  It's less common for players to significantly improve their foul shooting as most of the players were good foul shooters from early on but some of the poorer foul shooters did improve when they were just past Rondo's age/experience level. Again, I didn't check a ton of players and most of them were great players but I'd say (without rechecking) that most of Tony Parker, Gary Payton, Mark Jackson and Rod Strickland improved. Again, most of the players I looked at were good ft shooters from the start, but the poor ft shooters that I happened to come across were more likely to improve than not.
But my point is that Rondo basically had to start over when he got into the NBA.  I saw plenty of his games at Kentucky and his jump shot was on the level of Ben Wallace.  So indeed, he has ALREADY come a long way. 

For most other players, it is about refining and repetition when they get into to the league.  For Rondo, it was much more than that.

  Well, he had ALREADY come most of that way before his 2nd year in the league. If he's been steady with what improvements he's made and he's coming up on the age where most players improve their outside shooting I see no reason why Rondo can't also improve.

  Rondo's a fairly poor outside shooter, but people act like he's one of the worst in the history of the league. That's not really the case. He's on a team with three #1 scorers, one of the league leaders in fg% and he's among the best guards at getting to the hoop. If you look at the scoring options for the Celts you basically have Perk from within 3 feet of the rim, Pierce shooting, Allen shooting, KG shooting, Rondo going in for a layup and Rondo shooting from the outside. Which option would you like to see the Celts take? Is it even close?

  Rondo does need to take those outside shots with more authority. That will come with time, and he's already improving in that area. It would also be nice if he hit more of them. But it's not the case that most of the league hits 50% of these shots and Rondo hits 10% of them.

  On the hoopdata website, they have a way to look at everyone's shooting percentage at a given distance from the hoop. I filtered it by point guards that play more than 25 minutes a game. It give a list of players and their fg%, and near the top it lists the average for the listed players. I ballparked Rondo's averages over the last 3 years compared to the league average (for mainly starting point guards). I didn't go to the depth of weighting Rondo's averages by the number of attempts in a given year, but it should be fairly close.

  At the rim, the average ie about 57%, Rondo's at about 61%. Inside 10 feet (but not at the rim), the average is 44%, and Rondo's at about 44%. From 10-15 feet, the average is 42%, and Rondo's at 42%. From 16-23 feet, the average is about 42% and Rondo's at about 38%. He lags in three pointers, as the average efg% is 55% and Rondo's at about 40%. So IMO it's not the hopeless situation that many people make it out to be.

  The truth is you could put quite a few point guards on this team and the shot the other teams would most like the Celts to take is an outside jumper by the point guard.

Re: Doc states the obvious: Rondo's jumper needs work
« Reply #22 on: August 13, 2010, 02:05:45 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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Shooting percentage is much more a factor of the kind of shots you get than it is of actual shooting percentage.  Shaq is and always has been a horrible shooter.  Yet he led the league in shooting percentage for a number of years.  

And the percentage don't truly show what kind shooter Rondo is either.  How many other guards in this league get the kind of wide open jump shots that Rondo's does?  Not any that I can think of.  Put even average shooters in the same place as Rondo and they would be shooting a much higher percentage.  No, I don't need to look at stats to know that Rondo can't shoot.  I just watch the games.

In terms of whether or not he can improve, I stand by my opinion.  You are right in that he came most of the way by his second year.  But he hasn't moved much since then.  I think this is evidence that he has basically plateaud.  Whether it is big hand, laziness, or whatever, I don't believe he can get much better.

The way I look at it, strengths and weaknesses on the court are a product of BOTH work and inherent skill.  Most people will acknowledge that there is an element of inherent skill to jumpining abilility (for example).  The same goes for everything else I believe.  Usually, when one has an inherent skill, they tend to emphasize it (by working on it).  Ray Allen certainly works hard on his jumper.  But I have no doubt that he also had a knack for it at an early age.

Would anyone deny that Rondo had more inherent skill at ball handling than say Kendrick Perkins? Or that there is a certain skill that a golfer possesses.  It seems to be about being able to repeat the same motion consistently.  Some people simply can do it better than others. 

Not everyone is going to be a good shooter, no matter how much they practice.  And for some reason, Rondo never developed his shooting form at a young age.  My guess is he didn't have a knack for it, he contentrated on this strengths, and now it is too late.  

Re: Doc states the obvious: Rondo's jumper needs work
« Reply #23 on: August 13, 2010, 03:26:45 PM »

Offline BballTim

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Shooting percentage is much more a factor of the kind of shots you get than it is of actual shooting percentage.  Shaq is and always has been a horrible shooter.  Yet he led the league in shooting percentage for a number of years. 
 

  This, obviously, has nothing to do with the conversation. I wasn't saying the fact that Rondo led all point guards in fg% means he's a great shooter. I compared his shooting at different distances from the basket with other guards shooting from the same distance.

And the percentage don't truly show what kind shooter Rondo is either.  How many other guards in this league get the kind of wide open jump shots that Rondo's does?  Not any that I can think of.  Put even average shooters in the same place as Rondo and they would be shooting a much higher percentage.  No, I don't need to look at stats to know that Rondo can't shoot.  I just watch the games.

  I hate having these conversations in the summer, because you can't just turn on a game that night to settle things like this. A good percentage of 20 foot jump shots are taken fairly wide open, and many of the others are shots where a person 4-5 feet away closes the guy out and tries to get a hand near the shooter's face before he gets the shot off. It might seem like even the worst shooting point guards take shots from just inside the arc with opponents draped all over them, but that's not the case.

  Mid range and long range 2 point jump shots are, by far, the least efficient way to score. Players only make about 40% of them, compared to about 60% if their inside shots and the 53% (efg%) on three pointers, and players rarely get fouled taking the long 2 point shots. In other words, that's the shot that the defense wants you to take.

In terms of whether or not he can improve, I stand by my opinion.  You are right in that he came most of the way by his second year.  But he hasn't moved much since then.  I think this is evidence that he has basically plateaud.  Whether it is big hand, laziness, or whatever, I don't believe he can get much better.

  Sure, it seems like evidence that he's plateaued and will never improve, unless you're aware that most of the other players that "plateau" early in their careers, well, improve when they're older.

The way I look at it, strengths and weaknesses on the court are a product of BOTH work and inherent skill.  Most people will acknowledge that there is an element of inherent skill to jumpining abilility (for example).  The same goes for everything else I believe.  Usually, when one has an inherent skill, they tend to emphasize it (by working on it).  Ray Allen certainly works hard on his jumper.  But I have no doubt that he also had a knack for it at an early age.

Would anyone deny that Rondo had more inherent skill at ball handling than say Kendrick Perkins? Or that there is a certain skill that a golfer possesses.  It seems to be about being able to repeat the same motion consistently.  Some people simply can do it better than others. 

Not everyone is going to be a good shooter, no matter how much they practice.  And for some reason, Rondo never developed his shooting form at a young age.  My guess is he didn't have a knack for it, he contentrated on this strengths, and now it is too late.  

  I don't think that Rondo will ever be a really good shooter, but it would be unusual if he didn't become a better shooter.

Re: Doc states the obvious: Rondo's jumper needs work
« Reply #24 on: August 13, 2010, 04:00:24 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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Shooting percentage is much more a factor of the kind of shots you get than it is of actual shooting percentage.  Shaq is and always has been a horrible shooter.  Yet he led the league in shooting percentage for a number of years.  


  This, obviously, has nothing to do with the conversation. I wasn't saying the fact that Rondo led all point guards in fg% means he's a great shooter. I compared his shooting at different distances from the basket with other guards shooting from the same distance.  

Okay, but we both agree that Rondo is a poor shooter

And the percentage don't truly show what kind shooter Rondo is either.  How many other guards in this league get the kind of wide open jump shots that Rondo's does?  Not any that I can think of.  Put even average shooters in the same place as Rondo and they would be shooting a much higher percentage.  No, I don't need to look at stats to know that Rondo can't shoot.  I just watch the games.

  I hate having these conversations in the summer, because you can't just turn on a game that night to settle things like this. A good percentage of 20 foot jump shots are taken fairly wide open, and many of the others are shots where a person 4-5 feet away closes the guy out and tries to get a hand near the shooter's face before he gets the shot off. It might seem like even the worst shooting point guards take shots from just inside the arc with opponents draped all over them, but that's not the case.


  Mid range and long range 2 point jump shots are, by far, the least efficient way to score. Players only make about 40% of them, compared to about 60% if their inside shots and the 53% (efg%) on three pointers, and players rarely get fouled taking the long 2 point shots. In other words, that's the shot that the defense wants you to take.

Are you denying that defenses play Rondo differently that just about any other guard in the league?  Rondo can basically have a jump shot anytime he wants.  This simply isn't the case with most other players.  And in most cases, defenders DO make a valid attempt to contest shots; not necessarily to try and block it but at least to disrupt it.  In Rondo's case, you often see a guy not even contest the shot.  They basically stand there and dare him shoot.

In terms of whether or not he can improve, I stand by my opinion.  You are right in that he came most of the way by his second year.  But he hasn't moved much since then.  I think this is evidence that he has basically plateaud.  Whether it is big hand, laziness, or whatever, I don't believe he can get much better.

  Sure, it seems like evidence that he's plateaued and will never improve, unless you're aware that most of the other players that "plateau" early in their careers, well, improve when they're older.

Evidence?  I am not sure this is true at all.  I am thinking that players around the league go every which way.  Some may improve steadily throughout their career, some stay the same, and some also regress.  I am thikning there are few examples of players that actually improved a facet of their game as dramatically as many wont Rondo to improve his shooting

The way I look at it, strengths and weaknesses on the court are a product of BOTH work and inherent skill.  Most people will acknowledge that there is an element of inherent skill to jumpining abilility (for example).  The same goes for everything else I believe.  Usually, when one has an inherent skill, they tend to emphasize it (by working on it).  Ray Allen certainly works hard on his jumper.  But I have no doubt that he also had a knack for it at an early age.

Would anyone deny that Rondo had more inherent skill at ball handling than say Kendrick Perkins? Or that there is a certain skill that a golfer possesses.  It seems to be about being able to repeat the same motion consistently.  Some people simply can do it better than others.

Not everyone is going to be a good shooter, no matter how much they practice.  And for some reason, Rondo never developed his shooting form at a young age.  My guess is he didn't have a knack for it, he contentrated on this strengths, and now it is too late.  

  I don't think that Rondo will ever be a really good shooter, but it would be unusual if he didn't become a better shooter.

I don't think it would be unusual at all for Rondo to stay about where he is as a shooter.  Look at last year's team.  Is anyone wondering why Quis or TA couldn't shoot?  After a while, guys are what they are.  And I think we have reached that point with Rondo

Re: Doc states the obvious: Rondo's jumper needs work
« Reply #25 on: August 13, 2010, 04:01:25 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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Shooting percentage is much more a factor of the kind of shots you get than it is of actual shooting percentage.  Shaq is and always has been a horrible shooter.  Yet he led the league in shooting percentage for a number of years. 
 

  This, obviously, has nothing to do with the conversation. I wasn't saying the fact that Rondo led all point guards in fg% means he's a great shooter. I compared his shooting at different distances from the basket with other guards shooting from the same distance. 

Okay, but we both agree that Rondo is a poor shooter

And the percentage don't truly show what kind shooter Rondo is either.  How many other guards in this league get the kind of wide open jump shots that Rondo's does?  Not any that I can think of.  Put even average shooters in the same place as Rondo and they would be shooting a much higher percentage.  No, I don't need to look at stats to know that Rondo can't shoot.  I just watch the games.

  I hate having these conversations in the summer, because you can't just turn on a game that night to settle things like this. A good percentage of 20 foot jump shots are taken fairly wide open, and many of the others are shots where a person 4-5 feet away closes the guy out and tries to get a hand near the shooter's face before he gets the shot off. It might seem like even the worst shooting point guards take shots from just inside the arc with opponents draped all over them, but that's not the case.


  Mid range and long range 2 point jump shots are, by far, the least efficient way to score. Players only make about 40% of them, compared to about 60% if their inside shots and the 53% (efg%) on three pointers, and players rarely get fouled taking the long 2 point shots. In other words, that's the shot that the defense wants you to take.

Are you denying that defenses play Rondo differently that just about any other guard in the league?  Rondo can basically have a jump shot anytime he wants.  This simply isn't the case with most other players.  And in most cases, defenders DO make a valid attempt to contest shots; not necessarily to try and block it but at least to disrupt it.  In Rondo's case, you often see a guy not even contest the shot.  They basically stand there and dare him shoot.

In terms of whether or not he can improve, I stand by my opinion.  You are right in that he came most of the way by his second year.  But he hasn't moved much since then.  I think this is evidence that he has basically plateaud.  Whether it is big hand, laziness, or whatever, I don't believe he can get much better.

  Sure, it seems like evidence that he's plateaued and will never improve, unless you're aware that most of the other players that "plateau" early in their careers, well, improve when they're older.

Evidence?  I am not sure this is true at all.  I am thinking that players around the league go every which way.  Some may improve steadily throughout their career, some stay the same, and some also regress.  I am thikning there are few examples of players that actually improved a facet of their game as dramatically as many wont Rondo to improve his shooting

The way I look at it, strengths and weaknesses on the court are a product of BOTH work and inherent skill.  Most people will acknowledge that there is an element of inherent skill to jumpining abilility (for example).  The same goes for everything else I believe.  Usually, when one has an inherent skill, they tend to emphasize it (by working on it).  Ray Allen certainly works hard on his jumper.  But I have no doubt that he also had a knack for it at an early age.

Would anyone deny that Rondo had more inherent skill at ball handling than say Kendrick Perkins? Or that there is a certain skill that a golfer possesses.  It seems to be about being able to repeat the same motion consistently.  Some people simply can do it better than others. 

Not everyone is going to be a good shooter, no matter how much they practice.  And for some reason, Rondo never developed his shooting form at a young age.  My guess is he didn't have a knack for it, he contentrated on this strengths, and now it is too late.  

  I don't think that Rondo will ever be a really good shooter, but it would be unusual if he didn't become a better shooter.

I don't think it would be unusual at all for Rondo to stay about where he is as a shooter.  Look at last year's team.  Is anyone wondering why Quis or TA couldn't shoot?  After a while, guys are what they are.  And I think we have reached that point with Rondo

Re: Doc states the obvious: Rondo's jumper needs work
« Reply #26 on: August 13, 2010, 04:40:55 PM »

Offline BballTim

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Okay, but we both agree that Rondo is a poor shooter

  Yes, he's a below average jump shooter.

Are you denying that defenses play Rondo differently that just about any other guard in the league?  Rondo can basically have a jump shot anytime he wants.  This simply isn't the case with most other players.  And in most cases, defenders DO make a valid attempt to contest shots; not necessarily to try and block it but at least to disrupt it.  In Rondo's case, you often see a guy not even contest the shot.  They basically stand there and dare him shoot.

  I don't think that it's meaningful to discuss this in the offseason (it would be much easier if there were games to watch) but I'd say that a fair amount of 20 foot jumpshots are either uncontested or lightly contested. I don't think that all of these shots are closed out, which you seem to be claiming. I'd have to watch some games to tell if it's the same players that don't tend to get closed out when they get the ball 20 feet from the hoop.

  I've never denied that Rondo gets guarded differently some of the time. But I also think that if you took another poor shooting point guard and put him on a team with Pierce and Allen and Garnett they would be guarded the same way. It's not like they invented this type of defense for Rondo. Teams used to use it on DJ in the 80s. By the same token, when we played the Lakers, if Magic was on the outside without the ball his defender would be in the paint.

  Evidence?  I am not sure this is true at all.  I am thinking that players around the league go every which way.  Some may improve steadily throughout their career, some stay the same, and some also regress.  I am thikning there are few examples of players that actually improved a facet of their game as dramatically as many wont Rondo to improve his shooting

  I don't think this is the case, For one thing, I think there was an article on espn (something like "who's the best shooter of all time") that mentioned that most players see their fg% increase later in their careers. Secondly, while I was mainly checking guards on the main "Players" page on basketballreference that would have played during the three point era, the increase in the late 70s occurred almost every time, and many of them were poor shooters earlier on.

  I don't think it would be unusual at all for Rondo to stay about where he is as a shooter.  Look at last year's team.  Is anyone wondering why Quis or TA couldn't shoot?  After a while, guys are what they are.  And I think we have reached that point with Rondo


  First of all, TA and Daniels are both 4-5 years older than Rondo. If he were 28 I'd agree that he is what he is. Secondly, those two have probably combined for 2-3 healthy seasons in their careers, and neither of them generally play regular minutes.

Re: Doc states the obvious: Rondo's jumper needs work
« Reply #27 on: August 13, 2010, 05:10:33 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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Interesting discussion for sure and one that is difficult to predict IMO.  We'll see how it plays out I suppose.  I certainly HOPE you are right I can say that.

Re: Doc states the obvious: Rondo's jumper needs work
« Reply #28 on: August 14, 2010, 07:19:25 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Jabbar is another 7 footer that could shoot FT's.   His hands were huge, that ought to put to rest the big hands myth.  Dr. J was a shorter guy with huge hands and he could shoot FT's decent.  Jordan had huge hands.  For ever Rondo and Shaq I can name a decent shooter.  Its an excuse, and when you let an excuse become a reason then you have accepted a liability. 

When shooting you don't palm it anyways the ball is supposed to be off the hand on the finger tips.   If its in the palm resting on the hand then that is the problem and your lobbing up there not shooting it.  It does happen sometimes and the ball slips and one will shoot it palmed and its usually a miss in traffic but not at the FT line.

Nothing is funnier to me when peeps comment on stuff that they have not experienced or do not know what its like.   Like a 6'2" who pretends he is hampered by tallness or a 42 inch chest guy who thinks he is huge and has trouble finding clothers.

Re: Doc states the obvious: Rondo's jumper needs work
« Reply #29 on: August 14, 2010, 06:08:45 PM »

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Not all 7'people(players)have big hands just as not all 5'people(players)have small hands.Yao has never been known for having big hands or palming the ball.Actually,i can't remember once i ever saw Yao palm the ball.Foul shooting is focus and loads of repetition involved.

I venture to say that Yao's hands are bigger than Rondo's