Poll: Celtics vs. Heat Series Predictions

[liam]

I predict the Heat are very frustrating to play against, but ultimately the Celtics prove too much for them.

That's a good prediction. The Heat really work the refs and savvy vets that have all the tricks.

[Phantom255x]

Lol looks like the entire blog thinks C's in 6, lopsided results there 

[nickagneta]

Are we gonna see Grant on Butler?

With all the switching we'll see everyone on everyone....

I bet they start with Brown on him. It won't be Tatum. For the most part, Udoka has protected Tatum from tough defensive assignments. I could see Tatum being on Strus. Grant would get Tucker, Horford Bam and White/Smart will get Vincent/Lowry

[#1P4P]

I just rewatched the Celtics-Heat Highlights of the three games to analyze the scoring plays, get a refresher of what happened, and reassure myself of my Celtics in 5 prediction. The first and second games were pre-White and Theis, Rob was out in the third game; meanwhile the Heat were missing Butler, Lowry, and Tucker for the second game.

1 - The majority of Miami's scoring plays were contested shots from the perimeter. Whether it was the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd game, the C's did an excellent job defending Heat players, staying in front of them, keeping them away from the paint, and forcing them to make shots with a nearby defender.

2 - The Celtics' scoring plays featured a variety of shots from the paint to the perimeter, in transition and the half court. They contested well, though not to the difficulty of their shots. Players were regularly getting dribble penetration and either finishing in the paint or passing to an open shooter.

3 - The difference in personnel didn't change the geography of the shots, the Heat were able to make contested shot after contested shot.

Notable Notes: The 1st game, a blowout Celtics win, was the 2nd of a back to back and the 3rd game in 4 nights for the C's. The 2nd game, a blowout Celtics win, was the 1st game of a back to back for the Heat.

Rewatching the highlights reassured me of my pick. We consistently get higher quality shots and when the series turns into a battle of attrition, they're reliance on perimeter shooting and lack of easy shots will be difficult to sustain. Holiday, Allen, Connaughton, and Portis were +38% 3P shooters in the RS, the Heat have 5 shooters that are +38% and 9 that are +36.8%, of the 9 only Duncan Robinson and PJ Tucker at or above the mark with all others falling off a cliff against worse defenses.

Celtics in 5!

[tarheelsxxiii]

We beat them in 2 out of 3 this year:

We won by 17 in November (Brown 17, Schroder 14; Butler 20, Robinson 16)
We won by 30 in January (Brown 29, Tatum 20; Strus 27, Martin 14; )  Lol
They won by 8 in March (Tatum 23, Brown 28; Butler 24, Lowry 23)

Not much to take away from these games. The first two were relatively meaningless.

Lowry is "unlikely" to play in Game 1.  Smart is "questionable," so probably also unlikely. 

[colincb]

Already seeing some analysts picking Heat in 7, Heat in 6 etc like Skip Bayless

"Jimmy Buckets is a different animal in the playoffs"
"The Heat are the best 3pt shooting team and D in the playoffs. Remember they demolished Boston in the bubble"
"Miami deep with Butler, Bam, Herro, Tucker, Lowry, Struss, Oladipo, Vincent, Robinson...the Celtics ain't faced no one yet"

Bubble Celtics and 2022 Celtics two different teams. One is they no longer get to box-and-1 Kemba anymore as he's no longer on the C's. Two is we have Horford back, who should be one of the many big bodies for Bam to put up against. Three is JT and JB are much grown. If they got past superstar duo Irving/Durant and the "greatest player in the world" Giannis...then they should be able to neutralize Jimmy Butler.

C's will have to play that underdog role in this series. Looks like they opened the line with Miami at -2.

Skippy's full of BS. Butler's career TS% in the regular season is 57.8% and is 57.2% in the playoffs. Butler's averaged 19.2 points per 36 in the regular season and 18.8 points per 36 in the playoffs. He scores 11% more PPG in the playoffs, but he plays 14% more minutes.

He's a 6-time all-star, but while Butler doesn't shrink under the spotlight like some players, he doesn't put on a cape and become Superman either.

[tarheelsxxiii]

Already seeing some analysts picking Heat in 7, Heat in 6 etc like Skip Bayless

"Jimmy Buckets is a different animal in the playoffs"
"The Heat are the best 3pt shooting team and D in the playoffs. Remember they demolished Boston in the bubble"
"Miami deep with Butler, Bam, Herro, Tucker, Lowry, Struss, Oladipo, Vincent, Robinson...the Celtics ain't faced no one yet"

Bubble Celtics and 2022 Celtics two different teams. One is they no longer get to box-and-1 Kemba anymore as he's no longer on the C's. Two is we have Horford back, who should be one of the many big bodies for Bam to put up against. Three is JT and JB are much grown. If they got past superstar duo Irving/Durant and the "greatest player in the world" Giannis...then they should be able to neutralize Jimmy Butler.

C's will have to play that underdog role in this series. Looks like they opened the line with Miami at -2.

Skippy's full of BS. Butler's career TS% in the regular season is 57.8% and is 57.2% in the playoffs. Butler's averaged 19.2 points per 36 in the regular season and 18.8 points per 36 in the playoffs. He scores 11% more PPG in the playoffs, but he plays 14% more minutes.

He's a 6-time all-star, but while Butler doesn't shrink under the spotlight like some players, he doesn't put on a cape and become Superman either.

Heat are also shooting the worst from 3 (32.1%) among the four remaining teams.  They're probably the weakest team left, especially without Lowry.

[bowlingwarnie]

If Herro is bouncing around running riot like in that 37 point game ---CAN SOMEBODY PLEASE PUT HIM ON HIS A$$ ... disrupt his rhythm - see how he responds to a hard foul ...  please

[gouki88]

whoever said one of the keys is we don't play idiotball I agree

I think ironically the risk might be that, given the Heat have such good shooters, our guys might try to outshoot them. NO!

Another chapter in Ime's young career of overcoming the stupid habits the Celts sometimes fall into.

I think we'll recognise the huge advantage we have inside. Jimmy Butler is the second tallest guy in their starting lineup, as opposed to Milwaukee with Giannis and Lopez. Even Bam is only Horford's size. Tatum & Brown are both too long for Miami if we can effectively space against them.

Hopefully they'll lick their chops whenever they see nerds like Herro. Even Smart can kick their ass. (Before people flame me, I'm also a fat nerd desk jockey).

Smart taking Herro into the low post would be ideal!

Underestimate international superstar Tyler Herro at your own peril.

Less underestimating, more trying to will his failure into being.

[pokeKingCurtis]

whoever said one of the keys is we don't play idiotball I agree

I think ironically the risk might be that, given the Heat have such good shooters, our guys might try to outshoot them. NO!

Another chapter in Ime's young career of overcoming the stupid habits the Celts sometimes fall into.

I think we'll recognise the huge advantage we have inside. Jimmy Butler is the second tallest guy in their starting lineup, as opposed to Milwaukee with Giannis and Lopez. Even Bam is only Horford's size. Tatum & Brown are both too long for Miami if we can effectively space against them.

Hopefully they'll lick their chops whenever they see nerds like Herro. Even Smart can kick their ass. (Before people flame me, I'm also a fat nerd desk jockey).

Smart taking Herro into the low post would be ideal!

Underestimate international superstar Tyler Herro at your own peril.

Less underestimating, more trying to will his failure into being.

Reminds me of the Tyrell Terry memes. Those were excellent.

[Big333223]

One thing I think the Celtics have in their favor is Tatum and Bam seem to be friends now and Tatum seems to like nothing more than roasting his friends on TV. He always balls out against Brad Beal, he and Durant clearly like one another and Tatum relished killing Durant in round 1.

I think Tatum is going to have a much better series against the Heat than he had against the Bucks.

[Vermont Green]

Butler is a good passer and the Heat move well without the ball.  You need both, the ball in the hands of a good passer and the players without the ball moving with purpose.  I suspect we will primarily play our switch defense but I think we will also have to double Butler some.  That is how the Herro types get their shots though.  Butler will find them when he is doubled.

I am fine to play Butler straight up and not leave other people open.  Butler will get some points and also draw fouls but pick your poison.   I don't think Butler alone can beat us.  Even Giannis alone couldn't.  I guess we did double Durant a lot and that worked.

The Bucks actually have a better defensive rating (102.7) than the Heat (104.6) in the playoffs.  The Celtics are 3rd at 105.2.  This series is going to be a grind.