Quote from: keevsnick on November 07, 2025, 09:32:21 PM

The C's are getting absolutely nothing in terms of luck. They're missing shots, they're getting bad foul calls at the worst times and every loose ball seems to bounce against them.

They are 3-1 in the "blowout" games they played. 1-5 in the close or close-ish games they've played.

Ethical tanking baby!! 

The issue is it's hard to "rely" on losing every close game you play to tank. If the C's continue to be in every game they play, they'll probably win too many games to really tank. For example, last year the Wizards were 13-16 (45%), the Jazz were 8-25 (24%), the Hornets were 14-24 (37%) and the NOP were 14-20 (41%) in clutch games. The C's are 1-4 (20%). So there will be some regression to the mean for the c's in close games as the season progresses.

The good news is you don't need to tank to have a shot at top talent. The Mavericks won the #1 pick from the 12 position, and even a 10-14 pick would still be the best draft pick the Celtics have had in a decade.

If you have the 10th-14th pick and a 22.5-million-dollar TPE you can use to provide salary relief..... I think that can get you a very good center for that.

The Moneyball Mandate: Why the Celtics' Path Back to Contention Runs Through the 2025 Season

We need to stop thinking about the Boston Celtics' payroll as a salary cap. For the foreseeable future, we should think of it as a moneybag.

There?s only so much you can fit inside, and right now, it?s bulging at the seams with the supermax deals of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Every other dollar, every other contract, must be scrutinized not just for its on-court value, but for its efficiency within that finite moneybag. The goal isn't to just fill out a roster; it's to maximize the value of every single cent surrounding our two stars.

And that is why the focus for the remainder of this 2025 season should shift decisively away from chasing a play-in spot and toward a strategic, long-term vision. This season is no longer about winning games; it's about winning the future.

The Grim Reality of the Cap Sheet

Let's be blunt: as currently constructed, this team is not a contender. We are, optimistically, two high-level starters away from seriously challenging for the Eastern Conference crown again. The most glaring need is a bona fide starting-caliber big man, followed by one more dynamic, two-way player who can create his own shot.

The problem? We lack the two key currencies to acquire such players: premium assets and financial flexibility. Our draft picks are few and far between, and the moneybag is stuffed with contracts that provide diminishing returns. We are stuck in the dreaded "middle," too good to bottom out naturally, but not good enough to matter in May.

The Silver Lining: A Glimmer in the Youth Movement

Amidst a frustrating season, a potential path forward is emerging from the shadows of the bench. The development of Jaycee Hugo and the recent flashes from Jamal Minott are not just pleasant surprises; they are potential lifelines.

Hugo has shown a defensive tenacity and a budding offensive game that suggests a reliable 3-and-D wing. Minott, with his athleticism and energy, looks like he could be a disruptive force. Even Jordan Walsh, who many had written off, is showing signs of life, reminding us why he was a coveted prospect. His potential resurrection is a bonus this team desperately needs.

These players are crucial for one simple reason: they are cheap, controllable, and have a higher ceiling than the veterans blocking their path.

The Hardest Pill to Swallow: Moving On from Hauser

This brings us to the toughest, but most necessary, decision: Sam Hauser has become a luxury this team can no longer afford.

Let's be clear: Sam Hauser is a good NBA player. He is one of the best pure shooters in the league and will always be a solid backup wing. But we have learned, definitively, that he is not a starter. He is a specialist, and on his current contract, he is a prime candidate for what I call "positive value redundancy."

We have cheaper, younger backup wing options in Hugo and Minott who, while less proven, possess higher defensive ceilings and more diverse athletic tools. Hauser?s $2+ million salary and proven skill set make him a valuable trade chip for a contender. For us, he is a roadblock to both financial flexibility and the development of potentially better, certainly cheaper, alternatives.

The Prescription for "Ethical Tanking" and the 2026 Payoff

The plan for the second half of the season is clear and involves a painful but purposeful pivot:

Trade Hauser and Simons: The front office must package Hauser and Simons' salaries in a deal designed for one purpose: to offload money and get under the luxury tax. The return is almost secondary; the primary goal is to clear future cap space and reset our financial clock. If we can get a future second-round pick or a trade exception, consider it a win.
Embrace the Losing Streak: These moves will, without a doubt, make the team worse in the short term. The Celtics will naturally fall below .500. And that's okay. This isn't the blatant, "shut-down-everyone" tanking that fans despise. This is "ethical tanking"?prioritizing player development and financial health over fleeting, meaningless wins.
Unleash the Young Wings: With Hauser and Simons gone, 30+ minutes a night become available. Those minutes must be funneled directly to Hugo, Minott, and Walsh. Let them play through mistakes. Let them learn on the job. Let them develop chemistry with each other and the core.
And here is the glorious payoff for enduring one down year:

By executing this strategy, the Celtics would enter the 2026 offseason armed for a major comeback. We would likely have:

A Top-10 Draft Pick: Our own, high-value selection to add a blue-chip prospect on a cost-controlled rookie contract.
$20+ Million in Cap Space: The financial flexibility to aggressively pursue a free-agent starting center or that second high-level starter.
All Our Future Draft Packs: A full war chest of assets to use in trades, something we currently lack.
Suddenly, those two glaring holes?the starting big man and the additional talented player?are no longer impossible to fill. We could address one with the cap space and the other with the high draft pick, all while having a developed core of young, affordable wings.

The Vision is Clear

The 2025 season was never going to be the one where we hung banner 18. But by managing the moneybag wisely today, it can be the season that laid the foundation for the next true contender. A core of Tatum and Brown, a cohort of developed young talent, a top draft pick, and significant cap space is a package that can vault us right back into the East's elite.

The future starts now, and it starts with making the tough, smart moves today. A little short-term pain for that kind of long-term gain isn't just advisable?it's essential.

I just don't think this is true. The Celtics to me are a single A) Jayson Tatum and B) A Starting level big man away from contention. A lineup of lets say White/Brown/Tatum with Zubac/Turner/Hartenstein as your starting center is VERY good, the 5th starter could be Hugo, Minott or Pritchard and I think you're look at a top 10 offense and defense.

There are ways to add a starting center and KEEP Hauser, it just depends on what their budget is. Right now they are 12 million over the tax. If Simons were to walk next offseason they'd be 15 million under the tax, 25-30 million under the first apron. If their budget is the first apron they should be able to get a starting level center using the Porzingis TPE and not be too expensive. If their budget is "stay under the tax" its a lot more difficult to get a starting big.

A top 10 pick would help a lot, but i don't think its a NEED. if they end up winning 40+ games it will be because Minott, Queta, Hugo, Walsh, ect were better than we thought, and that would be a GOOD thing for the future.

I think Boozer is probably the best fit of the three high level guys, just because I've always been a fan of Brown and Tatum at SG/SF vs SF/PF. It gives both guys more size advantages to attack.

But with Tatum coming off the achilles his future may just be at PF from here on out. Given that I kind of wish there was a higher level Center option in the draft. A rim protecting 3 point shooting 6'11 or bigger guy would be ideal.

In reality I'm not sure fit matters that much. I think the top 3 guys could all be impactful pretty quickly, but while there's some interesting guys in the 4-10 range I think they might take longer to be positive impact players just because that's usually the case. Guys in that range often aren't positive impact players in years 1 or 2, it usually takes a few seasons before they contribute to winning.

I still think the Celtics end up right around .500, to be honest i haven't seen anything yet that makes me think this team is or is going to tank.

They have an actually very good defense, it has defined weakness like fouling and rebounding but they forced a lot of turnovers, have a lot of rangy defenders and protect the rim well (4th in opponent rim frequency) despite having only one center.

Their offense is very jump shot dependent, but they have the 10th ranked offense despite not hitting threes. If their 3 point % goes from 32.2% to league average 36.6% they'd score two more 3-pointers a game and add 6 points to their scoring average. Now that may level off a bit if Pritchard/Brown stop hitting every mid ranger, but trading fewer middies for more threes still improves the offense overall.

This is a decent team that should be 6-4 but due to shooting luck (and that terrible call in the Jazz game) is only 4-6, but that sort of record stuff tends to even out over time. If they finish the year 10th in offense and 14th in defense they'll win 40+ games.

The one caveat: they've been healthy. Injuries will be the one thing that sinks this to a truly tanking team. But they also have quite a few guys who don't get hurt or play hurt (White, Pritchard, Brown) and quite a few young guys so injuries aren't guaranteed.

 I think the top 4 picks all fit very well, and lots of interesting players mid to late lottery. Share your favorite prospects for celtics going forward.

Peterson would be amazing. 6'5" power Guard that can do it all fits any team.Boozer jr. That's the PF this team has needed for a long time.
Boozer/Tatum/Brown great big 3 in the making.

 AJ Dybantsa. A bit strange of a fit with 3 natural small forwards but the talent is so great I'm not complaining.

 Nate Ament 6'10" 207 pounds. A young Durant type. Sign me up

 Talk about your favorite prospects to get us back in contention.