Author Topic: What do we need to make the finals?  (Read 11123 times)

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Re: What do we need to make the finals?
« Reply #45 on: January 14, 2021, 12:35:48 PM »

Offline Jvalin

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- Why would BKN include us in the deal when they could ship Allen to the Cavs where he won't come back to haunt anyone in the near future?
The Rockets had more leverage than the Nets cause Harden is hands down the best player in the trade. It's the Rockets that would possibly want the C's in the deal. Our pick will likely be more valuable than the Bucks pick, plus we wouldn't need to add a salary filler (=Exum) cause we got the TPE. If the Rockets wanted a vet, we could have thrown in Theis instead of Exum. They are both on expiring contracts. Theis is easily the better player between the two.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2021, 12:41:01 PM by Jvalin »

Re: What do we need to make the finals?
« Reply #46 on: January 14, 2021, 01:05:46 PM »

Offline Somebody

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if you come up with a reasonable way to get Jokic, let everyone know.
Tatum + fillers for Jokic. Poison pill provision would be a problem. I bet both teams would say no. :P

Personally speaking, I'd do it for the C's. We'd probably have to make more moves to balance the roster, but imo Jokic is a top 5 player in the league. Worst case scenario, top 6. Never gonna happen obviously. Just saying.

I wouldn't do it, but not because the value isn't there - it is. And it would be a fit for the long-standing visions of both Ainge and Stevens to play through a big.

When Ainge became an executive with the Celtics he mentioned two offenses that he'd like to emulate: Sacramento and Minnesota. The Kings at that time were playing through Divac and/or Webber and the TWolves were playing through Garnett. And of course it was only a few seasons later that Garnett was doing that in Boston.

Olynyk and especially Al Horford were used in that role effectively later on, but Jokic is a cut above the rest, maybe above every big ever.

On the other hand that is not such a great role for Theis or Thompson.

All the same, I think that the franchise's best long-term practice is to avoid churn and drastic changes, unless they're forced. Is Tatum a top-10 NBA player? Good chance, and his future looks even better than his present. If he's 11th best, and Jokic is 5th (or however you rank them), I say that's not a good enough difference.

I'm uncomfortable with ranking players so specifically anyway. How a guy is used, fatigue and injury, decline, different variabilities in performance, a big measure of plain luck, and, not least, the method you use to rank players, all affect how your list sorts out; and the number differences are minuscule.

Add to that that you're comparing players who do vastly different things on the court (e.g., Jokic and Tatum), and those comparisons really don't seem possible - at least at the level of #3, #9, #21, etc.

Can you win a championship with Tatum? I'd say yes, of course you can.

So, what does Boston need to get to the Finals.

I'll say first that I'm a little disappointed in the question. As Celtics fans, isn't the question supposed to be, 'how do you win Championship 18?' But oh well.

I'm opposed to acquiring James Harden. His willingness to damage the Rockets with irresponsible and team-detrimental behavior cannot be acceptable to the Boston Celtics. It's team-first around here, in case you hadn't heard.

I'm not excited about potential Orlando Magic trade targets, either, since the price tags are inflated for the value return.

No doubt there are other trade targets possible, but more than anything Boston needs a guy who can push the ball up the floor quicker, get the ball anywhere he needs to off the dribble, and then make a play. They need Kemba Walker.

He's a brilliant pnr ballhandler, and if he returns fully healthy, Thompson and especially Daniel Theis will have their games open up.

I pushed back most of last season on the idea that Boston needed a scorer 'off the bench', since there weren't enough shots to go around as it was. But with Hayward gone and Kemba injured, the usage is overwhelmingly shifted to two players.

Tatum is at 30.9% and Brown is at 29.2%. Third among rotation players is Teague at 18.3%. While this might be sustainable, if those two have good luck with injuries, it's a poor recipe for a really effective offense and for a rested duo in the playoffs.

They need Kemba. His usage last year was between the two Jays at 27.2, and his turnover% was between them, too.

Boston needs to get to the line more. Kemba did more often per fga than either of the Jays.

They need Kemba. If his knee is going to fall apart every spring, then they need someone else like him.
1. Tatum isn't near the top 11 right now with the return of KD and Curry, that's probably his ceiling.

2. The difference between a guy good enough to knock on the door of the "inner circle" MVPs like LeBron/Giannis/Kawhi/AD/KD/Curry and a perennial All-NBA player that Tatum's hoping to be is pretty significant - it's really difficult to break into the range that Jokic is in right now from the "All-NBA" band. I'm not saying that you can't win with that kind of guy as your best player, but you need a lot of talent around him (good examples would be the '04 Pistons and '14 Spurs where they had two players on that level with the Pistons having two more top 30 players and another top 40-50 defensive specialist, while the Spurs had three top 40-50 players in Manu/Kawhi/Green and a platoon of good role players to support Duncan/Parker). We can definitely do that if Kemba comes back 100% and Jaylen makes the leap, but it's infinitely more easy to compete for a title if you have a Jokic level guy where you can pair him with another star and a couple of Smarts instead of trying to cobble two stars and a couple of Smarts to support Tatum.

Tatum is pretty clearly better than Curry this year. Their counting stats are a wash, but Tatum is substantially more efficient and also is much better and more impactful defensively.
Without getting into how the counting stats don't even come close to measuring player impact all that well (you usually miss qualitative stuff with the raw numbers), they aren't a wash at all.

Curry box stats per 75: 27.9 points, 6.38 assists, 3.1 TOs
Tatum box stats per 75: 27.98 points, 3.98 assists, 2.48 TOs

Curry dwarfs Tatum when it comes to playmaking even in the box score (the box score doesn't even quite capture Curry's insane gravity and passing ability that is in a different universe compared to the likes of Tatum), and that's not even taking Curry's incredibly scalable game into account, his ability to be an offensive savant that can oscillate on and off the ball is something that Tatum can only dream of.

Also not sure where are you getting the numbers that say Tatum is more efficient than Curry unless you're still in love with the raw efficiency slash line, Curry has a 59.9% TS this season with uncharacteristically poor shooting while Tatum is at 58.8% on the back of a scorching hot start to the season by his standards - the gap between the two will only widen as both players regress to the mean.

Tatum is definitely way better than Curry on defence (rebounds/stocks as well as the eye test, adjusted +/- metrics and tracking data make this very obvious), but he isn't a titanic big man who vaults teams into the upper stratosphere defensively by himself, so any advantage he has over an average to above average guard defender like Curry doesn't even come close to closing the massive chasm between the two offensively.


There's virtually no overall difference between the two players this year as the advanced stats show.

https://tinyurl.com/SCvsJT
Which advanced stats? Stuff that needs to be retired (at least for analysis that isn't a quick and dirty "is he rubbish or not" test) in the form of win shares and BBREF's BPM? TS% tells me that Curry is going to be significantly more efficient than Tatum as both players regress to the mean as the season progresses and his assist rate dwarfs Tatum's when it doesn't even quite capture Curry's passing and playmaking edge all that well. Obviously the rate stats show that Tatum is leagues ahead of Curry defensively (even though they don't capture defensive impact all that well by themselves), but he simply isn't a defensive anchor who can get to superstar heights with just his defence.
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Re: What do we need to make the finals?
« Reply #47 on: January 14, 2021, 01:10:12 PM »

Offline Somebody

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First and foremost, we need to wait for the Nets to have their turn. I’m just not seeing how we can add a third piece that brings Tatum/Brown up to the level of early 30s Harden/Durant/Irving. Not in 2021 and maybe not in 2022. Maybe if KAT becomes disgruntled and we get him somehow without giving up more than picks. Maybe if we somehow bring Jokic here in 2023. We definitely need an elite big man to get past them.

Lolololol, what?

There's always going to be a superteam in the NBA. Always. That's where the league is these days. Whether it's Lebron's Heatles, the Curry Warriors, Lebron's Cavs, the KD/Curry Warriors, or Lebron in LA, there's always going to be a team that people believe to be invincible and while you're waiting for them to fade out, another superteam we didn't foresee is going to take it's place.

You build your team, you compete and you put yourself in a situation to take advantage of an opportunity to do something special like Dallas and Toronto. This wait to get your turn is so nonsensical. Turns aren't guaranteed one way or the other.
Dallas? I obviously get Toronto, but Dallas had a superstar in Dirk who buoyed the team for more than a decade and got close to winning the title in '06 before finally winning in '11 as Dirk matured and peaked around that time. But yeah we can't wait for "our turn", we have to get into a position where we're constantly competing deep in the playoffs so we can actually contend for a title once we get that final piece (whether it's via player development, trade, the draft or free agency).
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Re: What do we need to make the finals?
« Reply #48 on: January 14, 2021, 01:25:59 PM »

Offline RJ87

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First and foremost, we need to wait for the Nets to have their turn. I’m just not seeing how we can add a third piece that brings Tatum/Brown up to the level of early 30s Harden/Durant/Irving. Not in 2021 and maybe not in 2022. Maybe if KAT becomes disgruntled and we get him somehow without giving up more than picks. Maybe if we somehow bring Jokic here in 2023. We definitely need an elite big man to get past them.

Lolololol, what?

There's always going to be a superteam in the NBA. Always. That's where the league is these days. Whether it's Lebron's Heatles, the Curry Warriors, Lebron's Cavs, the KD/Curry Warriors, or Lebron in LA, there's always going to be a team that people believe to be invincible and while you're waiting for them to fade out, another superteam we didn't foresee is going to take it's place.

You build your team, you compete and you put yourself in a situation to take advantage of an opportunity to do something special like Dallas and Toronto. This wait to get your turn is so nonsensical. Turns aren't guaranteed one way or the other.
Dallas? I obviously get Toronto, but Dallas had a superstar for in Dirk who buoyed the team for more than a decade and got close to winning the title in '06 before finally winning in '11 as Dirk matured and peaked around that time. But yeah we can't wait for "our turn", we have to get into a position where we're constantly competing deep in the playoffs so we can actually contend for a title once we get that final piece (whether it's via player development, trade, the draft or free agency).

I don't want to renegotiate the past, but no one had Dallas coming out of the West that year, let alone winning a championship. They were obviously a playoff team, but they weren't considered favorites over the Lakers or Spurs in the West. Everyone already penciled in the defending champion Lakers and the Lebron Heatles for the Finals with the Heat winning it all. They caught fire at the right time with Dirk going supernova, which they wouldn't have been able to do that if they said let's wait it out. So yes, they put out a competitive team and were able to take advantage of an opportunity.
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Re: What do we need to make the finals?
« Reply #49 on: January 14, 2021, 01:50:43 PM »

Offline colincb

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if you come up with a reasonable way to get Jokic, let everyone know.
Tatum + fillers for Jokic. Poison pill provision would be a problem. I bet both teams would say no. :P

Personally speaking, I'd do it for the C's. We'd probably have to make more moves to balance the roster, but imo Jokic is a top 5 player in the league. Worst case scenario, top 6. Never gonna happen obviously. Just saying.

I wouldn't do it, but not because the value isn't there - it is. And it would be a fit for the long-standing visions of both Ainge and Stevens to play through a big.

When Ainge became an executive with the Celtics he mentioned two offenses that he'd like to emulate: Sacramento and Minnesota. The Kings at that time were playing through Divac and/or Webber and the TWolves were playing through Garnett. And of course it was only a few seasons later that Garnett was doing that in Boston.

Olynyk and especially Al Horford were used in that role effectively later on, but Jokic is a cut above the rest, maybe above every big ever.

On the other hand that is not such a great role for Theis or Thompson.

All the same, I think that the franchise's best long-term practice is to avoid churn and drastic changes, unless they're forced. Is Tatum a top-10 NBA player? Good chance, and his future looks even better than his present. If he's 11th best, and Jokic is 5th (or however you rank them), I say that's not a good enough difference.

I'm uncomfortable with ranking players so specifically anyway. How a guy is used, fatigue and injury, decline, different variabilities in performance, a big measure of plain luck, and, not least, the method you use to rank players, all affect how your list sorts out; and the number differences are minuscule.

Add to that that you're comparing players who do vastly different things on the court (e.g., Jokic and Tatum), and those comparisons really don't seem possible - at least at the level of #3, #9, #21, etc.

Can you win a championship with Tatum? I'd say yes, of course you can.

So, what does Boston need to get to the Finals.

I'll say first that I'm a little disappointed in the question. As Celtics fans, isn't the question supposed to be, 'how do you win Championship 18?' But oh well.

I'm opposed to acquiring James Harden. His willingness to damage the Rockets with irresponsible and team-detrimental behavior cannot be acceptable to the Boston Celtics. It's team-first around here, in case you hadn't heard.

I'm not excited about potential Orlando Magic trade targets, either, since the price tags are inflated for the value return.

No doubt there are other trade targets possible, but more than anything Boston needs a guy who can push the ball up the floor quicker, get the ball anywhere he needs to off the dribble, and then make a play. They need Kemba Walker.

He's a brilliant pnr ballhandler, and if he returns fully healthy, Thompson and especially Daniel Theis will have their games open up.

I pushed back most of last season on the idea that Boston needed a scorer 'off the bench', since there weren't enough shots to go around as it was. But with Hayward gone and Kemba injured, the usage is overwhelmingly shifted to two players.

Tatum is at 30.9% and Brown is at 29.2%. Third among rotation players is Teague at 18.3%. While this might be sustainable, if those two have good luck with injuries, it's a poor recipe for a really effective offense and for a rested duo in the playoffs.

They need Kemba. His usage last year was between the two Jays at 27.2, and his turnover% was between them, too.

Boston needs to get to the line more. Kemba did more often per fga than either of the Jays.

They need Kemba. If his knee is going to fall apart every spring, then they need someone else like him.
1. Tatum isn't near the top 11 right now with the return of KD and Curry, that's probably his ceiling.

2. The difference between a guy good enough to knock on the door of the "inner circle" MVPs like LeBron/Giannis/Kawhi/AD/KD/Curry and a perennial All-NBA player that Tatum's hoping to be is pretty significant - it's really difficult to break into the range that Jokic is in right now from the "All-NBA" band. I'm not saying that you can't win with that kind of guy as your best player, but you need a lot of talent around him (good examples would be the '04 Pistons and '14 Spurs where they had two players on that level with the Pistons having two more top 30 players and another top 40-50 defensive specialist, while the Spurs had three top 40-50 players in Manu/Kawhi/Green and a platoon of good role players to support Duncan/Parker). We can definitely do that if Kemba comes back 100% and Jaylen makes the leap, but it's infinitely more easy to compete for a title if you have a Jokic level guy where you can pair him with another star and a couple of Smarts instead of trying to cobble two stars and a couple of Smarts to support Tatum.

Tatum is pretty clearly better than Curry this year. Their counting stats are a wash, but Tatum is substantially more efficient and also is much better and more impactful defensively.
Without getting into how the counting stats don't even come close to measuring player impact all that well (you usually miss qualitative stuff with the raw numbers), they aren't a wash at all.

Curry box stats per 75: 27.9 points, 6.38 assists, 3.1 TOs
Tatum box stats per 75: 27.98 points, 3.98 assists, 2.48 TOs

Curry dwarfs Tatum when it comes to playmaking even in the box score (the box score doesn't even quite capture Curry's insane gravity and passing ability that is in a different universe compared to the likes of Tatum), and that's not even taking Curry's incredibly scalable game into account, his ability to be an offensive savant that can oscillate on and off the ball is something that Tatum can only dream of.

Also not sure where are you getting the numbers that say Tatum is more efficient than Curry unless you're still in love with the raw efficiency slash line, Curry has a 59.9% TS this season with uncharacteristically poor shooting while Tatum is at 58.8% on the back of a scorching hot start to the season by his standards - the gap between the two will only widen as both players regress to the mean.

Tatum is definitely way better than Curry on defence (rebounds/stocks as well as the eye test, adjusted +/- metrics and tracking data make this very obvious), but he isn't a titanic big man who vaults teams into the upper stratosphere defensively by himself, so any advantage he has over an average to above average guard defender like Curry doesn't even come close to closing the massive chasm between the two offensively.


There's virtually no overall difference between the two players this year as the advanced stats show.

https://tinyurl.com/SCvsJT
Which advanced stats? Stuff that needs to be retired (at least for analysis that isn't a quick and dirty "is he rubbish or not" test) in the form of win shares and BBREF's BPM? TS% tells me that Curry is going to be significantly more efficient than Tatum as both players regress to the mean as the season progresses and his assist rate dwarfs Tatum's when it doesn't even quite capture Curry's passing and playmaking edge all that well. Obviously the rate stats show that Tatum is leagues ahead of Curry defensively (even though they don't capture defensive impact all that well by themselves), but he simply isn't a defensive anchor who can get to superstar heights with just his defence.

There's no big difference in TS% between .599 and .588.

Re: What do we need to make the finals?
« Reply #50 on: January 14, 2021, 02:00:40 PM »

Offline Somebody

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if you come up with a reasonable way to get Jokic, let everyone know.
Tatum + fillers for Jokic. Poison pill provision would be a problem. I bet both teams would say no. :P

Personally speaking, I'd do it for the C's. We'd probably have to make more moves to balance the roster, but imo Jokic is a top 5 player in the league. Worst case scenario, top 6. Never gonna happen obviously. Just saying.

I wouldn't do it, but not because the value isn't there - it is. And it would be a fit for the long-standing visions of both Ainge and Stevens to play through a big.

When Ainge became an executive with the Celtics he mentioned two offenses that he'd like to emulate: Sacramento and Minnesota. The Kings at that time were playing through Divac and/or Webber and the TWolves were playing through Garnett. And of course it was only a few seasons later that Garnett was doing that in Boston.

Olynyk and especially Al Horford were used in that role effectively later on, but Jokic is a cut above the rest, maybe above every big ever.

On the other hand that is not such a great role for Theis or Thompson.

All the same, I think that the franchise's best long-term practice is to avoid churn and drastic changes, unless they're forced. Is Tatum a top-10 NBA player? Good chance, and his future looks even better than his present. If he's 11th best, and Jokic is 5th (or however you rank them), I say that's not a good enough difference.

I'm uncomfortable with ranking players so specifically anyway. How a guy is used, fatigue and injury, decline, different variabilities in performance, a big measure of plain luck, and, not least, the method you use to rank players, all affect how your list sorts out; and the number differences are minuscule.

Add to that that you're comparing players who do vastly different things on the court (e.g., Jokic and Tatum), and those comparisons really don't seem possible - at least at the level of #3, #9, #21, etc.

Can you win a championship with Tatum? I'd say yes, of course you can.

So, what does Boston need to get to the Finals.

I'll say first that I'm a little disappointed in the question. As Celtics fans, isn't the question supposed to be, 'how do you win Championship 18?' But oh well.

I'm opposed to acquiring James Harden. His willingness to damage the Rockets with irresponsible and team-detrimental behavior cannot be acceptable to the Boston Celtics. It's team-first around here, in case you hadn't heard.

I'm not excited about potential Orlando Magic trade targets, either, since the price tags are inflated for the value return.

No doubt there are other trade targets possible, but more than anything Boston needs a guy who can push the ball up the floor quicker, get the ball anywhere he needs to off the dribble, and then make a play. They need Kemba Walker.

He's a brilliant pnr ballhandler, and if he returns fully healthy, Thompson and especially Daniel Theis will have their games open up.

I pushed back most of last season on the idea that Boston needed a scorer 'off the bench', since there weren't enough shots to go around as it was. But with Hayward gone and Kemba injured, the usage is overwhelmingly shifted to two players.

Tatum is at 30.9% and Brown is at 29.2%. Third among rotation players is Teague at 18.3%. While this might be sustainable, if those two have good luck with injuries, it's a poor recipe for a really effective offense and for a rested duo in the playoffs.

They need Kemba. His usage last year was between the two Jays at 27.2, and his turnover% was between them, too.

Boston needs to get to the line more. Kemba did more often per fga than either of the Jays.

They need Kemba. If his knee is going to fall apart every spring, then they need someone else like him.
1. Tatum isn't near the top 11 right now with the return of KD and Curry, that's probably his ceiling.

2. The difference between a guy good enough to knock on the door of the "inner circle" MVPs like LeBron/Giannis/Kawhi/AD/KD/Curry and a perennial All-NBA player that Tatum's hoping to be is pretty significant - it's really difficult to break into the range that Jokic is in right now from the "All-NBA" band. I'm not saying that you can't win with that kind of guy as your best player, but you need a lot of talent around him (good examples would be the '04 Pistons and '14 Spurs where they had two players on that level with the Pistons having two more top 30 players and another top 40-50 defensive specialist, while the Spurs had three top 40-50 players in Manu/Kawhi/Green and a platoon of good role players to support Duncan/Parker). We can definitely do that if Kemba comes back 100% and Jaylen makes the leap, but it's infinitely more easy to compete for a title if you have a Jokic level guy where you can pair him with another star and a couple of Smarts instead of trying to cobble two stars and a couple of Smarts to support Tatum.

Tatum is pretty clearly better than Curry this year. Their counting stats are a wash, but Tatum is substantially more efficient and also is much better and more impactful defensively.
Without getting into how the counting stats don't even come close to measuring player impact all that well (you usually miss qualitative stuff with the raw numbers), they aren't a wash at all.

Curry box stats per 75: 27.9 points, 6.38 assists, 3.1 TOs
Tatum box stats per 75: 27.98 points, 3.98 assists, 2.48 TOs

Curry dwarfs Tatum when it comes to playmaking even in the box score (the box score doesn't even quite capture Curry's insane gravity and passing ability that is in a different universe compared to the likes of Tatum), and that's not even taking Curry's incredibly scalable game into account, his ability to be an offensive savant that can oscillate on and off the ball is something that Tatum can only dream of.

Also not sure where are you getting the numbers that say Tatum is more efficient than Curry unless you're still in love with the raw efficiency slash line, Curry has a 59.9% TS this season with uncharacteristically poor shooting while Tatum is at 58.8% on the back of a scorching hot start to the season by his standards - the gap between the two will only widen as both players regress to the mean.

Tatum is definitely way better than Curry on defence (rebounds/stocks as well as the eye test, adjusted +/- metrics and tracking data make this very obvious), but he isn't a titanic big man who vaults teams into the upper stratosphere defensively by himself, so any advantage he has over an average to above average guard defender like Curry doesn't even come close to closing the massive chasm between the two offensively.


There's virtually no overall difference between the two players this year as the advanced stats show.

https://tinyurl.com/SCvsJT
Which advanced stats? Stuff that needs to be retired (at least for analysis that isn't a quick and dirty "is he rubbish or not" test) in the form of win shares and BBREF's BPM? TS% tells me that Curry is going to be significantly more efficient than Tatum as both players regress to the mean as the season progresses and his assist rate dwarfs Tatum's when it doesn't even quite capture Curry's passing and playmaking edge all that well. Obviously the rate stats show that Tatum is leagues ahead of Curry defensively (even though they don't capture defensive impact all that well by themselves), but he simply isn't a defensive anchor who can get to superstar heights with just his defence.
There's no big difference in TS% between .599 and .588.
What I'm saying that the difference will turn into something significant as both players regress to the mean. Tatum's unlikely to shoot 43-45% from 3 and nearly 90% at the line for an entire season while Curry has never shot below 41% from 3 in his career barring last year when he played a handful of games due to injury.
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Re: What do we need to make the finals?
« Reply #51 on: January 14, 2021, 02:13:08 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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if you come up with a reasonable way to get Jokic, let everyone know.
Tatum + fillers for Jokic. Poison pill provision would be a problem. I bet both teams would say no. :P

Personally speaking, I'd do it for the C's. We'd probably have to make more moves to balance the roster, but imo Jokic is a top 5 player in the league. Worst case scenario, top 6. Never gonna happen obviously. Just saying.

I wouldn't do it, but not because the value isn't there - it is. And it would be a fit for the long-standing visions of both Ainge and Stevens to play through a big.

When Ainge became an executive with the Celtics he mentioned two offenses that he'd like to emulate: Sacramento and Minnesota. The Kings at that time were playing through Divac and/or Webber and the TWolves were playing through Garnett. And of course it was only a few seasons later that Garnett was doing that in Boston.

Olynyk and especially Al Horford were used in that role effectively later on, but Jokic is a cut above the rest, maybe above every big ever.

On the other hand that is not such a great role for Theis or Thompson.

All the same, I think that the franchise's best long-term practice is to avoid churn and drastic changes, unless they're forced. Is Tatum a top-10 NBA player? Good chance, and his future looks even better than his present. If he's 11th best, and Jokic is 5th (or however you rank them), I say that's not a good enough difference.

I'm uncomfortable with ranking players so specifically anyway. How a guy is used, fatigue and injury, decline, different variabilities in performance, a big measure of plain luck, and, not least, the method you use to rank players, all affect how your list sorts out; and the number differences are minuscule.

Add to that that you're comparing players who do vastly different things on the court (e.g., Jokic and Tatum), and those comparisons really don't seem possible - at least at the level of #3, #9, #21, etc.

Can you win a championship with Tatum? I'd say yes, of course you can.

So, what does Boston need to get to the Finals.

I'll say first that I'm a little disappointed in the question. As Celtics fans, isn't the question supposed to be, 'how do you win Championship 18?' But oh well.

I'm opposed to acquiring James Harden. His willingness to damage the Rockets with irresponsible and team-detrimental behavior cannot be acceptable to the Boston Celtics. It's team-first around here, in case you hadn't heard.

I'm not excited about potential Orlando Magic trade targets, either, since the price tags are inflated for the value return.

No doubt there are other trade targets possible, but more than anything Boston needs a guy who can push the ball up the floor quicker, get the ball anywhere he needs to off the dribble, and then make a play. They need Kemba Walker.

He's a brilliant pnr ballhandler, and if he returns fully healthy, Thompson and especially Daniel Theis will have their games open up.

I pushed back most of last season on the idea that Boston needed a scorer 'off the bench', since there weren't enough shots to go around as it was. But with Hayward gone and Kemba injured, the usage is overwhelmingly shifted to two players.

Tatum is at 30.9% and Brown is at 29.2%. Third among rotation players is Teague at 18.3%. While this might be sustainable, if those two have good luck with injuries, it's a poor recipe for a really effective offense and for a rested duo in the playoffs.

They need Kemba. His usage last year was between the two Jays at 27.2, and his turnover% was between them, too.

Boston needs to get to the line more. Kemba did more often per fga than either of the Jays.

They need Kemba. If his knee is going to fall apart every spring, then they need someone else like him.
1. Tatum isn't near the top 11 right now with the return of KD and Curry, that's probably his ceiling.

2. The difference between a guy good enough to knock on the door of the "inner circle" MVPs like LeBron/Giannis/Kawhi/AD/KD/Curry and a perennial All-NBA player that Tatum's hoping to be is pretty significant - it's really difficult to break into the range that Jokic is in right now from the "All-NBA" band. I'm not saying that you can't win with that kind of guy as your best player, but you need a lot of talent around him (good examples would be the '04 Pistons and '14 Spurs where they had two players on that level with the Pistons having two more top 30 players and another top 40-50 defensive specialist, while the Spurs had three top 40-50 players in Manu/Kawhi/Green and a platoon of good role players to support Duncan/Parker). We can definitely do that if Kemba comes back 100% and Jaylen makes the leap, but it's infinitely more easy to compete for a title if you have a Jokic level guy where you can pair him with another star and a couple of Smarts instead of trying to cobble two stars and a couple of Smarts to support Tatum.

Tatum is pretty clearly better than Curry this year. Their counting stats are a wash, but Tatum is substantially more efficient and also is much better and more impactful defensively.
Without getting into how the counting stats don't even come close to measuring player impact all that well (you usually miss qualitative stuff with the raw numbers), they aren't a wash at all.

Curry box stats per 75: 27.9 points, 6.38 assists, 3.1 TOs
Tatum box stats per 75: 27.98 points, 3.98 assists, 2.48 TOs

Curry dwarfs Tatum when it comes to playmaking even in the box score (the box score doesn't even quite capture Curry's insane gravity and passing ability that is in a different universe compared to the likes of Tatum), and that's not even taking Curry's incredibly scalable game into account, his ability to be an offensive savant that can oscillate on and off the ball is something that Tatum can only dream of.

Also not sure where are you getting the numbers that say Tatum is more efficient than Curry unless you're still in love with the raw efficiency slash line, Curry has a 59.9% TS this season with uncharacteristically poor shooting while Tatum is at 58.8% on the back of a scorching hot start to the season by his standards - the gap between the two will only widen as both players regress to the mean.

Tatum is definitely way better than Curry on defence (rebounds/stocks as well as the eye test, adjusted +/- metrics and tracking data make this very obvious), but he isn't a titanic big man who vaults teams into the upper stratosphere defensively by himself, so any advantage he has over an average to above average guard defender like Curry doesn't even come close to closing the massive chasm between the two offensively.


There's virtually no overall difference between the two players this year as the advanced stats show.

https://tinyurl.com/SCvsJT
Which advanced stats? Stuff that needs to be retired (at least for analysis that isn't a quick and dirty "is he rubbish or not" test) in the form of win shares and BBREF's BPM? TS% tells me that Curry is going to be significantly more efficient than Tatum as both players regress to the mean as the season progresses and his assist rate dwarfs Tatum's when it doesn't even quite capture Curry's passing and playmaking edge all that well. Obviously the rate stats show that Tatum is leagues ahead of Curry defensively (even though they don't capture defensive impact all that well by themselves), but he simply isn't a defensive anchor who can get to superstar heights with just his defence.
There's no big difference in TS% between .599 and .588.
What I'm saying that the difference will turn into something significant as both players regress to the mean. Tatum's unlikely to shoot 43-45% from 3 and nearly 90% at the line for an entire season while Curry has never shot below 41% from 3 in his career barring last year when he played a handful of games due to injury.

I'm not sure why you think 'regressing to the mean' applies to a rapidly developing 22 year old who has made leaps every year except when Kyrie prevented it. I'm also confused as to how Tatum's D/rebounding gets dinged for not being a 'defensive anchor' while you simultaneous trumpet Curry's average playmaking for a PG as some kind of ace in the hole for your argument.  Tatum is more likely to improve than revert to when he wasn't able to legally drink alcohol, and Curry's passing is more limited than Tatum's D.  Also, since you trumpet the greatness of Draymond, why is it that Tatum's team (with one additional all-NBA player and a bunch of young guys) is so much better than Curry's team with their all-NBA player who you love so much, and their young guys?
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Re: What do we need to make the finals?
« Reply #52 on: January 14, 2021, 02:33:27 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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I think it's pretty straightforward.

1. We need health:   Kemba has to come back and be healthy through the playoffs.  The Jays have to be healthy through the playoffs.  We need at least two of our centers plus Smart and the other 'top 8' rotation guys to be healthy.   Every year -- every year -- the conference finalist that wins the chip is the conference finalist that is healthiest.   We need to be that team.

2.  We need to shore up the 3rd scoring-wing spot.   Specifically we need to shore up the 'big wing' slot that can be deployed at the 4 so we can play Jayson at the 3 and Jaylen at the 2.   That is the configuration we are most dominant at.   Seriously our 3-wing lineups both last year and this year with Jaylen & Jayson have been just dominant. 

It is possible that (2) could be helped by Semi continuing to show improvement or Romeo getting (and staying) healthy and picking up where he left off or Nesmith maturing in his game by the end of the year.   But ideally, I think Danny should use the TPE to try to bring in a player like Harrison Barnes or Fournier or similar type guy.

We don't need a super-star for this role.  We just need someone who has decent size to be able to switch 2-3-4 and who has at least _some_ offensive gravity.  Enough to force defenses to stay honest on him and not sag off.   Then need to be someone who can hit unguarded threes at a 40%+ clip and who can attack a mismatch (so team's can't automatically put their worst defender on him).

That's it.   Doesn't need to be a Gordon Hayward (though that would have been nice).  Just a good, solid, veteran scoring wing.


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Re: What do we need to make the finals?
« Reply #53 on: January 14, 2021, 02:50:26 PM »

Offline colincb

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if you come up with a reasonable way to get Jokic, let everyone know.
Tatum + fillers for Jokic. Poison pill provision would be a problem. I bet both teams would say no. :P

Personally speaking, I'd do it for the C's. We'd probably have to make more moves to balance the roster, but imo Jokic is a top 5 player in the league. Worst case scenario, top 6. Never gonna happen obviously. Just saying.

I wouldn't do it, but not because the value isn't there - it is. And it would be a fit for the long-standing visions of both Ainge and Stevens to play through a big.

When Ainge became an executive with the Celtics he mentioned two offenses that he'd like to emulate: Sacramento and Minnesota. The Kings at that time were playing through Divac and/or Webber and the TWolves were playing through Garnett. And of course it was only a few seasons later that Garnett was doing that in Boston.

Olynyk and especially Al Horford were used in that role effectively later on, but Jokic is a cut above the rest, maybe above every big ever.

On the other hand that is not such a great role for Theis or Thompson.

All the same, I think that the franchise's best long-term practice is to avoid churn and drastic changes, unless they're forced. Is Tatum a top-10 NBA player? Good chance, and his future looks even better than his present. If he's 11th best, and Jokic is 5th (or however you rank them), I say that's not a good enough difference.

I'm uncomfortable with ranking players so specifically anyway. How a guy is used, fatigue and injury, decline, different variabilities in performance, a big measure of plain luck, and, not least, the method you use to rank players, all affect how your list sorts out; and the number differences are minuscule.

Add to that that you're comparing players who do vastly different things on the court (e.g., Jokic and Tatum), and those comparisons really don't seem possible - at least at the level of #3, #9, #21, etc.

Can you win a championship with Tatum? I'd say yes, of course you can.

So, what does Boston need to get to the Finals.

I'll say first that I'm a little disappointed in the question. As Celtics fans, isn't the question supposed to be, 'how do you win Championship 18?' But oh well.

I'm opposed to acquiring James Harden. His willingness to damage the Rockets with irresponsible and team-detrimental behavior cannot be acceptable to the Boston Celtics. It's team-first around here, in case you hadn't heard.

I'm not excited about potential Orlando Magic trade targets, either, since the price tags are inflated for the value return.

No doubt there are other trade targets possible, but more than anything Boston needs a guy who can push the ball up the floor quicker, get the ball anywhere he needs to off the dribble, and then make a play. They need Kemba Walker.

He's a brilliant pnr ballhandler, and if he returns fully healthy, Thompson and especially Daniel Theis will have their games open up.

I pushed back most of last season on the idea that Boston needed a scorer 'off the bench', since there weren't enough shots to go around as it was. But with Hayward gone and Kemba injured, the usage is overwhelmingly shifted to two players.

Tatum is at 30.9% and Brown is at 29.2%. Third among rotation players is Teague at 18.3%. While this might be sustainable, if those two have good luck with injuries, it's a poor recipe for a really effective offense and for a rested duo in the playoffs.

They need Kemba. His usage last year was between the two Jays at 27.2, and his turnover% was between them, too.

Boston needs to get to the line more. Kemba did more often per fga than either of the Jays.

They need Kemba. If his knee is going to fall apart every spring, then they need someone else like him.
1. Tatum isn't near the top 11 right now with the return of KD and Curry, that's probably his ceiling.

2. The difference between a guy good enough to knock on the door of the "inner circle" MVPs like LeBron/Giannis/Kawhi/AD/KD/Curry and a perennial All-NBA player that Tatum's hoping to be is pretty significant - it's really difficult to break into the range that Jokic is in right now from the "All-NBA" band. I'm not saying that you can't win with that kind of guy as your best player, but you need a lot of talent around him (good examples would be the '04 Pistons and '14 Spurs where they had two players on that level with the Pistons having two more top 30 players and another top 40-50 defensive specialist, while the Spurs had three top 40-50 players in Manu/Kawhi/Green and a platoon of good role players to support Duncan/Parker). We can definitely do that if Kemba comes back 100% and Jaylen makes the leap, but it's infinitely more easy to compete for a title if you have a Jokic level guy where you can pair him with another star and a couple of Smarts instead of trying to cobble two stars and a couple of Smarts to support Tatum.

Tatum is pretty clearly better than Curry this year. Their counting stats are a wash, but Tatum is substantially more efficient and also is much better and more impactful defensively.
Without getting into how the counting stats don't even come close to measuring player impact all that well (you usually miss qualitative stuff with the raw numbers), they aren't a wash at all.

Curry box stats per 75: 27.9 points, 6.38 assists, 3.1 TOs
Tatum box stats per 75: 27.98 points, 3.98 assists, 2.48 TOs

Curry dwarfs Tatum when it comes to playmaking even in the box score (the box score doesn't even quite capture Curry's insane gravity and passing ability that is in a different universe compared to the likes of Tatum), and that's not even taking Curry's incredibly scalable game into account, his ability to be an offensive savant that can oscillate on and off the ball is something that Tatum can only dream of.

Also not sure where are you getting the numbers that say Tatum is more efficient than Curry unless you're still in love with the raw efficiency slash line, Curry has a 59.9% TS this season with uncharacteristically poor shooting while Tatum is at 58.8% on the back of a scorching hot start to the season by his standards - the gap between the two will only widen as both players regress to the mean.

Tatum is definitely way better than Curry on defence (rebounds/stocks as well as the eye test, adjusted +/- metrics and tracking data make this very obvious), but he isn't a titanic big man who vaults teams into the upper stratosphere defensively by himself, so any advantage he has over an average to above average guard defender like Curry doesn't even come close to closing the massive chasm between the two offensively.


There's virtually no overall difference between the two players this year as the advanced stats show.

https://tinyurl.com/SCvsJT
Which advanced stats? Stuff that needs to be retired (at least for analysis that isn't a quick and dirty "is he rubbish or not" test) in the form of win shares and BBREF's BPM? TS% tells me that Curry is going to be significantly more efficient than Tatum as both players regress to the mean as the season progresses and his assist rate dwarfs Tatum's when it doesn't even quite capture Curry's passing and playmaking edge all that well. Obviously the rate stats show that Tatum is leagues ahead of Curry defensively (even though they don't capture defensive impact all that well by themselves), but he simply isn't a defensive anchor who can get to superstar heights with just his defence.
There's no big difference in TS% between .599 and .588.
What I'm saying that the difference will turn into something significant as both players regress to the mean. Tatum's unlikely to shoot 43-45% from 3 and nearly 90% at the line for an entire season while Curry has never shot below 41% from 3 in his career barring last year when he played a handful of games due to injury.

I'm not sure why you think 'regressing to the mean' applies to a rapidly developing 22 year old who has made leaps every year except when Kyrie prevented it. I'm also confused as to how Tatum's D/rebounding gets dinged for not being a 'defensive anchor' while you simultaneous trumpet Curry's average playmaking for a PG as some kind of ace in the hole for your argument.  Tatum is more likely to improve than revert to when he wasn't able to legally drink alcohol, and Curry's passing is more limited than Tatum's D.  Also, since you trumpet the greatness of Draymond, why is it that Tatum's team (with one additional all-NBA player and a bunch of young guys) is so much better than Curry's team with their all-NBA player who you love so much, and their young guys?

I'd argue against about either Tatum or Curry reverting to the mean this year. Tatum doesn't have a mean to revert to as a rising star. There's plenty to improve upon and he's doing nothing outrageous unlike JB's 2FG%. Also think Curry will face a lot more defensive pressure going forward this year based on how the Pacers defended him Tuesday night. GSW really is a one man team right now:

Quote
"People are going to throw everything at Steph," Warriors coach Steve Kerr said. "That'll be a big theme this season and we've got to do a better job of attacking what people are throwing at us, and we'll get better at it."

Re: What do we need to make the finals?
« Reply #54 on: January 14, 2021, 02:51:38 PM »

Online Moranis

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if you come up with a reasonable way to get Jokic, let everyone know.
Tatum + fillers for Jokic. Poison pill provision would be a problem. I bet both teams would say no. :P

Personally speaking, I'd do it for the C's. We'd probably have to make more moves to balance the roster, but imo Jokic is a top 5 player in the league. Worst case scenario, top 6. Never gonna happen obviously. Just saying.

I wouldn't do it, but not because the value isn't there - it is. And it would be a fit for the long-standing visions of both Ainge and Stevens to play through a big.

When Ainge became an executive with the Celtics he mentioned two offenses that he'd like to emulate: Sacramento and Minnesota. The Kings at that time were playing through Divac and/or Webber and the TWolves were playing through Garnett. And of course it was only a few seasons later that Garnett was doing that in Boston.

Olynyk and especially Al Horford were used in that role effectively later on, but Jokic is a cut above the rest, maybe above every big ever.

On the other hand that is not such a great role for Theis or Thompson.

All the same, I think that the franchise's best long-term practice is to avoid churn and drastic changes, unless they're forced. Is Tatum a top-10 NBA player? Good chance, and his future looks even better than his present. If he's 11th best, and Jokic is 5th (or however you rank them), I say that's not a good enough difference.

I'm uncomfortable with ranking players so specifically anyway. How a guy is used, fatigue and injury, decline, different variabilities in performance, a big measure of plain luck, and, not least, the method you use to rank players, all affect how your list sorts out; and the number differences are minuscule.

Add to that that you're comparing players who do vastly different things on the court (e.g., Jokic and Tatum), and those comparisons really don't seem possible - at least at the level of #3, #9, #21, etc.

Can you win a championship with Tatum? I'd say yes, of course you can.

So, what does Boston need to get to the Finals.

I'll say first that I'm a little disappointed in the question. As Celtics fans, isn't the question supposed to be, 'how do you win Championship 18?' But oh well.

I'm opposed to acquiring James Harden. His willingness to damage the Rockets with irresponsible and team-detrimental behavior cannot be acceptable to the Boston Celtics. It's team-first around here, in case you hadn't heard.

I'm not excited about potential Orlando Magic trade targets, either, since the price tags are inflated for the value return.

No doubt there are other trade targets possible, but more than anything Boston needs a guy who can push the ball up the floor quicker, get the ball anywhere he needs to off the dribble, and then make a play. They need Kemba Walker.

He's a brilliant pnr ballhandler, and if he returns fully healthy, Thompson and especially Daniel Theis will have their games open up.

I pushed back most of last season on the idea that Boston needed a scorer 'off the bench', since there weren't enough shots to go around as it was. But with Hayward gone and Kemba injured, the usage is overwhelmingly shifted to two players.

Tatum is at 30.9% and Brown is at 29.2%. Third among rotation players is Teague at 18.3%. While this might be sustainable, if those two have good luck with injuries, it's a poor recipe for a really effective offense and for a rested duo in the playoffs.

They need Kemba. His usage last year was between the two Jays at 27.2, and his turnover% was between them, too.

Boston needs to get to the line more. Kemba did more often per fga than either of the Jays.

They need Kemba. If his knee is going to fall apart every spring, then they need someone else like him.
1. Tatum isn't near the top 11 right now with the return of KD and Curry, that's probably his ceiling.

2. The difference between a guy good enough to knock on the door of the "inner circle" MVPs like LeBron/Giannis/Kawhi/AD/KD/Curry and a perennial All-NBA player that Tatum's hoping to be is pretty significant - it's really difficult to break into the range that Jokic is in right now from the "All-NBA" band. I'm not saying that you can't win with that kind of guy as your best player, but you need a lot of talent around him (good examples would be the '04 Pistons and '14 Spurs where they had two players on that level with the Pistons having two more top 30 players and another top 40-50 defensive specialist, while the Spurs had three top 40-50 players in Manu/Kawhi/Green and a platoon of good role players to support Duncan/Parker). We can definitely do that if Kemba comes back 100% and Jaylen makes the leap, but it's infinitely more easy to compete for a title if you have a Jokic level guy where you can pair him with another star and a couple of Smarts instead of trying to cobble two stars and a couple of Smarts to support Tatum.

Tatum is pretty clearly better than Curry this year. Their counting stats are a wash, but Tatum is substantially more efficient and also is much better and more impactful defensively.
Without getting into how the counting stats don't even come close to measuring player impact all that well (you usually miss qualitative stuff with the raw numbers), they aren't a wash at all.

Curry box stats per 75: 27.9 points, 6.38 assists, 3.1 TOs
Tatum box stats per 75: 27.98 points, 3.98 assists, 2.48 TOs

Curry dwarfs Tatum when it comes to playmaking even in the box score (the box score doesn't even quite capture Curry's insane gravity and passing ability that is in a different universe compared to the likes of Tatum), and that's not even taking Curry's incredibly scalable game into account, his ability to be an offensive savant that can oscillate on and off the ball is something that Tatum can only dream of.

Also not sure where are you getting the numbers that say Tatum is more efficient than Curry unless you're still in love with the raw efficiency slash line, Curry has a 59.9% TS this season with uncharacteristically poor shooting while Tatum is at 58.8% on the back of a scorching hot start to the season by his standards - the gap between the two will only widen as both players regress to the mean.

Tatum is definitely way better than Curry on defence (rebounds/stocks as well as the eye test, adjusted +/- metrics and tracking data make this very obvious), but he isn't a titanic big man who vaults teams into the upper stratosphere defensively by himself, so any advantage he has over an average to above average guard defender like Curry doesn't even come close to closing the massive chasm between the two offensively.


There's virtually no overall difference between the two players this year as the advanced stats show.

https://tinyurl.com/SCvsJT
Which advanced stats? Stuff that needs to be retired (at least for analysis that isn't a quick and dirty "is he rubbish or not" test) in the form of win shares and BBREF's BPM? TS% tells me that Curry is going to be significantly more efficient than Tatum as both players regress to the mean as the season progresses and his assist rate dwarfs Tatum's when it doesn't even quite capture Curry's passing and playmaking edge all that well. Obviously the rate stats show that Tatum is leagues ahead of Curry defensively (even though they don't capture defensive impact all that well by themselves), but he simply isn't a defensive anchor who can get to superstar heights with just his defence.
There's no big difference in TS% between .599 and .588.
What I'm saying that the difference will turn into something significant as both players regress to the mean. Tatum's unlikely to shoot 43-45% from 3 and nearly 90% at the line for an entire season while Curry has never shot below 41% from 3 in his career barring last year when he played a handful of games due to injury.
Curry is taking the most shots in his career this year.  He doesn't have the cover of Klay and Draymond has aged significantly.  I think you probably aren't correctly accounting for that.  The more good players you play with, the better your efficiency is going to be.  When you take away those good players and increase the role, efficiency often suffers a great deal. 

Tatum shot 43.4% as a rookie from 3 and was over 40% last year.  His 2nd year at 37.2% is what is holding back his percentage.  I think it is entirely possible that Tatum is in fact a 43% shooter, he has after all done it.  He has also never shot less than 81.2% from the line and his career best before the year was 85.5% so it isn't like his 88.9% this year is some crazy huge jump.

Also, for the record in year 4, Curry's TS% was 58.9% so it isn't crazy to think that Tatum is going to continue to improve as 4th year players often do.  While Curry is older, coming off a lost season, and has a lot more work load.  I fully expect Curry to have a lower efficiency this year.  Now maybe he is still more efficient than Tatum.  That is probably the safe bet, but it also isn't a guarantee.
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Re: What do we need to make the finals?
« Reply #55 on: January 14, 2021, 02:54:17 PM »

Offline colincb

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I think it's pretty straightforward.

1. We need health:   Kemba has to come back and be healthy through the playoffs.  The Jays have to be healthy through the playoffs.  We need at least two of our centers plus Smart and the other 'top 8' rotation guys to be healthy.   Every year -- every year -- the conference finalist that wins the chip is the conference finalist that is healthiest.   We need to be that team.

2.  We need to shore up the 3rd scoring-wing spot.   Specifically we need to shore up the 'big wing' slot that can be deployed at the 4 so we can play Jayson at the 3 and Jaylen at the 2.   That is the configuration we are most dominant at.   Seriously our 3-wing lineups both last year and this year with Jaylen & Jayson have been just dominant. 

It is possible that (2) could be helped by Semi continuing to show improvement or Romeo getting (and staying) healthy and picking up where he left off or Nesmith maturing in his game by the end of the year.   But ideally, I think Danny should use the TPE to try to bring in a player like Harrison Barnes or Fournier or similar type guy.

We don't need a super-star for this role.  We just need someone who has decent size to be able to switch 2-3-4 and who has at least _some_ offensive gravity.  Enough to force defenses to stay honest on him and not sag off.   Then need to be someone who can hit unguarded threes at a 40%+ clip and who can attack a mismatch (so team's can't automatically put their worst defender on him).

That's it.   Doesn't need to be a Gordon Hayward (though that would have been nice).  Just a good, solid, veteran scoring wing.

TP. Same thoughts here. Good health and another wing.

Re: What do we need to make the finals?
« Reply #56 on: January 14, 2021, 03:19:12 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Luck and some more offense on the bench.
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Re: What do we need to make the finals?
« Reply #57 on: January 14, 2021, 04:19:05 PM »

Offline RPGenerate

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I just want a year where everyone is healthy. It may not be enough to make the finals, but at least we'll have a clear picture of what we need to add to get to that level.
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Re: What do we need to make the finals?
« Reply #58 on: January 14, 2021, 04:38:55 PM »

Offline GreenCoffeeBean

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The main thing we need to do is win 12 games before we lose 12 games.

Re: What do we need to make the finals?
« Reply #59 on: January 14, 2021, 09:24:25 PM »

Offline flybono

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No Ainge and No Brad!

You ain’t sniffing a first round win with zero bench and zero shooters