Author Topic: Horford free agency thread: Possibly leaving: Page 10  (Read 21508 times)

__ramonezy__ and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: Horford free agency thread: Possibly leaving: Page
« Reply #30 on: May 11, 2019, 03:02:54 PM »

Offline Kuberski33

  • Antoine Walker
  • ****
  • Posts: 4626
  • Tommy Points: 255
Horford should probably just collect his $30M paycheck this year and then, next year, join whatever team he thinks has the best shot at a championship after the dust has settled this off-season. He would likely be on MLE contract for the rest of his career (unless a surprise team comes to the forefront), but at least he would likely be able to go further than the ECF. He is probably at a point in his career where he just wants to win.
1 year for $30 mill or 3 for $20 with a good team - I take the latter, and if he leaves there goes the Celtics ability to match up with Embid and Giannis. The solution is to extend him for something near his market rate or a little below as I'd think he might be open to a slight discount if the C's commit to him.

Re: Horford free agency thread: Possibly leaving: Page
« Reply #31 on: May 11, 2019, 03:15:41 PM »

Online jambr380

  • Satch Sanders
  • *********
  • Posts: 9248
  • Tommy Points: 1111
  • Sometimes there's no sane reason for optimism.
Horford should probably just collect his $30M paycheck this year and then, next year, join whatever team he thinks has the best shot at a championship after the dust has settled this off-season. He would likely be on MLE contract for the rest of his career (unless a surprise team comes to the forefront), but at least he would likely be able to go further than the ECF. He is probably at a point in his career where he just wants to win.
1 year for $30 mill or 3 for $20 with a good team - I take the latter, and if he leaves there goes the Celtics ability to match up with Embid and Giannis. The solution is to extend him for something near his market rate or a little below as I'd think he might be open to a slight discount if the C's commit to him.

I think you are missing my point. First, he would only need a 2 year/$30M deal after this one for it to be the same money. But, my main point is that there is going to be so much movement this year that we won't know who the next big team will be by the time Al needs to choose. If he sticks around with the Cs for a season, he can better gauge who to join so that he can win that ring he covets.

Obviously money is important, but he only has so many quality years left - I am sure he won't mind giving up a few million (the MLE compared to $15M for instance) to have a straight shot to the Finals. If he signs with [enter team name here] for 3 years, he may be in store for mediocrity.

Re: Horford free agency thread: Possibly leaving: Page
« Reply #32 on: May 11, 2019, 03:15:49 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5120
  • Tommy Points: 1043
"according to a league source, Horford would like to stay. The source added that he’d take a more team-friendly number for next season if he can get two more years tacked on."

https://www.bostonherald.com/2019/05/10/celtics-seeking-offseason-answers-draft-lottery-could-help-that-search/
Been saying this for some time. I think Horford likes Boston and will want to opt out and do like a 3 year, $55-60 million deal.

Part of the quote that Horford said in the OP was he hadn't even thought of leaving Boston. How, leaving Boston wasn't something he had even thought about turned into 50/50 he is leaving and it's because of Kyrie is baffling to me

Yeah, if you showed that quote and the one about the hometown discount and wrote a new thread titled “Al loves Boston, plans on taking hometown discount,” it’d be more grounded in reality.

Re: Horford free agency thread: Possibly leaving: Page
« Reply #33 on: May 11, 2019, 04:13:20 PM »

Offline philr13

  • Jaylen Brown
  • Posts: 211
  • Tommy Points: 20
"according to a league source, Horford would like to stay. The source added that he’d take a more team-friendly number for next season if he can get two more years tacked on."

https://www.bostonherald.com/2019/05/10/celtics-seeking-offseason-answers-draft-lottery-could-help-that-search/
Been saying this for some time. I think Horford likes Boston and will want to opt out and do like a 3 year, $55-60 million deal.

Part of the quote that Horford said in the OP was he hadn't even thought of leaving Boston. How, leaving Boston wasn't something he had even thought about turned into 50/50 he is leaving and it's because of Kyrie is baffling to me

Yeah, if you showed that quote and the one about the hometown discount and wrote a new thread titled “Al loves Boston, plans on taking hometown discount,” it’d be more grounded in reality.

He won't be taking any kind of discount. If he opts out and negotiates a new deal with Boston it will be for more total money than he stands to make over the next 3 to 5 years playing anywhere else. His new deal will cost Boston more money in the long run, but will give them more cap flexibility next season.

Re: Horford free agency thread: Possibly leaving: Page
« Reply #34 on: May 11, 2019, 04:34:46 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21238
  • Tommy Points: 2016
I'm going to ramble a bit.

Rumors that Horford could opt out of his 30 mil and take 3 years making 20 mil per year.  I also saw something that said Horford could potentially take a 5 year deal starting at 17 mil.

Before you scoff at 5 years...  FWIW, Al Horford will be 33 years old next season.   Horford is often called Tim Duncan-lite because of his style of play.  If he ages similar to Duncan, the final year of his 5 year contract would put him at the same age Duncan was at (37) when he contributed to the Spurs 2014 championship (Duncan was great in that championship run).

For the sake or argument, let's just pencil in trading Marcus Smart (12.5 mil) + Jaylen Brown (6.5mil) + Tatum (7.8 mil) + picks (27 mil outgoing) for Anthony Davis (27 mil incoming).

That would leave you with:

- Horford - 17 mil
- Davis - 27 mil
- Hayward - 32.7 mil
- Baynes - 5.4 mil (if he opts in to his final year)
- Yabu - 3.1 mil
- Williams - 1.9 mi

For this exercise, we are letting Rozier, Morris, Theis, Semi and Wanamaker walk.

That's a total of 87 mil on the books with a salary cap set at 109 mil.

My preference is absolutely to keep Kyrie Irving.  Obviously, using his bird rights to extend him pushes us over the salary cap.  But for fun, let's just say the fans successfully drive him out of town and Kyrie decides to leave.   

Technically, you could be looking at around 22 mil in cap space here to try to sign a replacement.  Probably not enough to get a guy like Kemba Walker, right?  But say you could find some teams to absorb the salaries of Yabu and Baynes (freeing up another 8.5 mil)... technically that could leave you with around 30 mil in cap space to find a star free agent to pair with Davis, Horford and Hayward.   

The other interesting path here is... the team could consider salary dumping Hayward on a team like the Cavs.  Cleveland was rumored to have some interest.  I'm not going to get into a debate about whether we'd need to include picks to salary dump Hayward, but Cleveland might be able to absorb some or all of his salary.  They have the non-guaranteed JR Smith deal they can trade.   Shedding some/all of Hayward's salary could technically put Boston in position to add a free agent star to pair with Davis/Horford if Kyrie leaves.  Meaning, you could make a pitch to someone like Kawhi to try and pair him with Davis.

One more semi-unrelated thing worth keeping in mind.  If ultimately Kyrie decides he's leaving, it will be in our best interest to work a sign-and-trade.  Say, for instance, he decides to go to the Knicks.  Even if the Knicks have the cap space, it's in our best interest to convince them to do a sign-and-trade.  New York doesn't have to give us any assets... we just need to get back a fat trade exception.    Say we end up with a 35 mil trade exception, we then don't have to worry about letting guys like Rozier and Morris walk.  If there's any picks left over after the Davis trade, we could try to trade the fat 35 mil trade exception + picks for a player like Mike Conley (on the books for 32.5 mil next season for the rebuilding Grizzlies). 


 
« Last Edit: May 11, 2019, 04:44:55 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: Horford free agency thread: Possibly leaving: Page
« Reply #35 on: May 11, 2019, 05:15:51 PM »

Offline NKY fan

  • Al Horford
  • Posts: 509
  • Tommy Points: 25
I'm going to ramble a bit.

Rumors that Horford could opt out of his 30 mil and take 3 years making 20 mil per year.  I also saw something that said Horford could potentially take a 5 year deal starting at 17 mil.

Before you scoff at 5 years...  FWIW, Al Horford will be 33 years old next season.   Horford is often called Tim Duncan-lite because of his style of play.  If he ages similar to Duncan, the final year of his 5 year contract would put him at the same age Duncan was at (37) when he contributed to the Spurs 2014 championship (Duncan was great in that championship run).

For the sake or argument, let's just pencil in trading Marcus Smart (12.5 mil) + Jaylen Brown (6.5mil) + Tatum (7.8 mil) + picks (27 mil outgoing) for Anthony Davis (27 mil incoming).

That would leave you with:

- Horford - 17 mil
- Davis - 27 mil
- Hayward - 32.7 mil
- Baynes - 5.4 mil (if he opts in to his final year)
- Yabu - 3.1 mil
- Williams - 1.9 mi

For this exercise, we are letting Rozier, Morris, Theis, Semi and Wanamaker walk.

That's a total of 87 mil on the books with a salary cap set at 109 mil.

My preference is absolutely to keep Kyrie Irving.  Obviously, using his bird rights to extend him pushes us over the salary cap.  But for fun, let's just say the fans successfully drive him out of town and Kyrie decides to leave.   

Technically, you could be looking at around 22 mil in cap space here to try to sign a replacement.  Probably not enough to get a guy like Kemba Walker, right?  But say you could find some teams to absorb the salaries of Yabu and Baynes (freeing up another 8.5 mil)... technically that could leave you with around 30 mil in cap space to find a star free agent to pair with Davis, Horford and Hayward.   

The other interesting path here is... the team could consider salary dumping Hayward on a team like the Cavs.  Cleveland was rumored to have some interest.  I'm not going to get into a debate about whether we'd need to include picks to salary dump Hayward, but Cleveland might be able to absorb some or all of his salary.  They have the non-guaranteed JR Smith deal they can trade.   Shedding some/all of Hayward's salary could technically put Boston in position to add a free agent star to pair with Davis/Horford if Kyrie leaves.  Meaning, you could make a pitch to someone like Kawhi to try and pair him with Davis.

One more semi-unrelated thing worth keeping in mind.  If ultimately Kyrie decides he's leaving, it will be in our best interest to work a sign-and-trade.  Say, for instance, he decides to go to the Knicks.  Even if the Knicks have the cap space, it's in our best interest to convince them to do a sign-and-trade.  New York doesn't have to give us any assets... we just need to get back a fat trade exception.    Say we end up with a 35 mil trade exception, we then don't have to worry about letting guys like Rozier and Morris walk.  If there's any picks left over after the Davis trade, we could try to trade the fat 35 mil trade exception + picks for a player like Mike Conley (on the books for 32.5 mil next season for the rebuilding Grizzlies). 


 
Having Kyrie signed and Horford at 20 mil will not leave yes with room to sign any major free agent because of picks and other players we have. Maybe vucevic for around $25M??
In terms of sign and trade exception from Kyrie the max would be $32.4M but it might be limited to his cap hold this year?

Re: Horford free agency thread: Possibly leaving: Page
« Reply #36 on: May 11, 2019, 11:32:04 PM »

Offline mr. dee

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6575
  • Tommy Points: 472
Quote
The Celts still have to find out what Al Horford wants to do. The veteran can opt out of the approximately $29 million he has coming next year, and, according to a league source, Horford would like to stay. The source added that he’d take a more team-friendly number for next season if he can get two more years tacked on.

If Kyrie leaves and Horford opts to restructure his contract, we will now have money to sign Max free agents.


Re: Horford free agency thread: Possibly leaving: Page
« Reply #37 on: May 12, 2019, 12:46:52 AM »

Offline nickagneta

  • Global Moderator
  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 37631
  • Tommy Points: 6140
Quote
The Celts still have to find out what Al Horford wants to do. The veteran can opt out of the approximately $29 million he has coming next year, and, according to a league source, Horford would like to stay. The source added that he’d take a more team-friendly number for next season if he can get two more years tacked on.

If Kyrie leaves and Horford opts to restructure his contract, we will now have money to sign Max free agents.
No. We won't. Even if Kyrie and Al both opt out completely and we renounce all free agents, we are still millions away from being able to give any free agent in the league over 6 years a max contract.

Re: Horford free agency thread: Possibly leaving: Page
« Reply #38 on: May 12, 2019, 02:42:35 AM »

Offline GreenEnvy

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3977
  • Tommy Points: 977
If Kyrie walks, I’m not restructuring Horford’s deal. Keep cap flexibility! Trade for AD and see what happens after next season. If AD then walks, our only major contract will be Hayward’s last season and whomever is left after the trade (presumably Brown).

We would compete for a title next season (use MLE on a PG, Hayward returns to form), and at worst have cap space moving forward for a max contract (although 2020 unrestricted doesn’t look great, so we could roll it over to 2021 and Hayward would come off, giving us 2 max slots assuming Ainge keeps short contracts).


But if Kyrie returns, I’d restructure Horford after dealing for AD. Then use MLE on a solid guard and resign Morris for around ~3yr/$30M (don’t see the market for him above MLE where he would be happier than here).
I AM A CELTIC

Re: Horford free agency thread: Possibly leaving: Page
« Reply #39 on: May 12, 2019, 07:19:12 AM »

Online Csfan1984

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6408
  • Tommy Points: 116
I'm okay with him leaving if it's over 20 million per and over 2 years. The guy looks old at times and can completely disappear some games. It's only going to get worse the older he gets. Please let Average Al go on a high note.
Trade deadline mock team: Celtics,
Irving, Rozier, Wanna
Smart, Robinson, Dozier
Tatum, Morris, Semi
Griffin, Theis, Yab
Horford, Baynes, Williams

Re: Horford free agency thread: Possibly leaving: Page
« Reply #40 on: May 12, 2019, 07:36:12 AM »

Offline mr. dee

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6575
  • Tommy Points: 472
Quote
The Celts still have to find out what Al Horford wants to do. The veteran can opt out of the approximately $29 million he has coming next year, and, according to a league source, Horford would like to stay. The source added that he’d take a more team-friendly number for next season if he can get two more years tacked on.

If Kyrie leaves and Horford opts to restructure his contract, we will now have money to sign Max free agents.
No. We won't. Even if Kyrie and Al both opt out completely and we renounce all free agents, we are still millions away from being able to give any free agent in the league over 6 years a max contract.

Let's say Horford resign for 4 year-60 million deal, he's leaving another 15 million to make a cap room. Doesn't Horford and Kyrie's salary amount for 50 million? We could also restructure Baynes contract and trade the young guys not named Tatum or Brown to make a room for free agents.

Re: Horford free agency thread: Possibly leaving: Page
« Reply #41 on: May 12, 2019, 08:06:51 AM »

Online Green-18

  • Bill Walton
  • *
  • Posts: 1139
  • Tommy Points: 121
For those who are against a Horford extension (assume no Kyrie or AD):

Boston likely wont have room for a max contract either way.  The salaries of Hayward, Smart, Tatum, and Jaylen will total roughly $85 million in 2020-21.  I came to this number under the assumption that Jaylen signs an RFA max contract.  If nobody is willing to offer him a max then I'll assume the Celtics are nowhere near contention anyways, which means that they aren't attracting any Superstar free agents.

Now let's look ahead to 2021-22.  Tatum will be due for his RFA max contract and Hayward comes off the books.  As for Horford, it would be smart for the Celtics to line up another player option going into this off-season.  Horford likely opts out again if it helps the Celtics improve their chances for a title.

The idea of clearing out cap space only makes sense if we are a legitimate destination for Superstar free agents.  Unfortunately, The Celtics are only an attractive destination if they can contend for a title.  I'm struggling to piece together a contending team that doesn't feature Horford.  We need to keep him around for the next two years and hope that Jaylen & Jayson become All-Stars.  The complete resurgence of Hayward would also be great to see.   

 
« Last Edit: May 12, 2019, 08:12:08 AM by Green-18 »

Re: Horford free agency thread: Possibly leaving: Page
« Reply #42 on: May 12, 2019, 09:56:24 AM »

Offline BMark

  • Marcus Smart
  • Posts: 154
  • Tommy Points: 8
The optics of this negotiation are extremely important.  The Cs shouldn't want to be perceived as a place that shows no reciprocal loyalty to players professing loyalty to the team. Based upon the comments of AD's father that may be a problem.

Horford shows no signs of imminent physical decline and given his heady style of play I think he will properly manage himself over the next 3 years.  It is always a risk to commit $ to an older player but I think the risk is worth the potential rewards in this case. 2 more years with a player option for the 2nd

Re: Horford free agency thread: Possibly leaving: Page
« Reply #43 on: May 12, 2019, 11:06:56 AM »

Offline Sophomore

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1915
  • Tommy Points: 313
I'm going to ramble a bit.

Rumors that Horford could opt out of his 30 mil and take 3 years making 20 mil per year.  I also saw something that said Horford could potentially take a 5 year deal starting at 17 mil.

Before you scoff at 5 years...  FWIW, Al Horford will be 33 years old next season.   Horford is often called Tim Duncan-lite because of his style of play.  If he ages similar to Duncan, the final year of his 5 year contract would put him at the same age Duncan was at (37) when he contributed to the Spurs 2014 championship (Duncan was great in that championship run).

For the sake or argument, let's just pencil in trading Marcus Smart (12.5 mil) + Jaylen Brown (6.5mil) + Tatum (7.8 mil) + picks (27 mil outgoing) for Anthony Davis (27 mil incoming).

That would leave you with:

- Horford - 17 mil
- Davis - 27 mil
- Hayward - 32.7 mil
- Baynes - 5.4 mil (if he opts in to his final year)
- Yabu - 3.1 mil
- Williams - 1.9 mi

For this exercise, we are letting Rozier, Morris, Theis, Semi and Wanamaker walk.

That's a total of 87 mil on the books with a salary cap set at 109 mil.

My preference is absolutely to keep Kyrie Irving.  Obviously, using his bird rights to extend him pushes us over the salary cap.  But for fun, let's just say the fans successfully drive him out of town and Kyrie decides to leave.   

Technically, you could be looking at around 22 mil in cap space here to try to sign a replacement.  Probably not enough to get a guy like Kemba Walker, right?  But say you could find some teams to absorb the salaries of Yabu and Baynes (freeing up another 8.5 mil)... technically that could leave you with around 30 mil in cap space to find a star free agent to pair with Davis, Horford and Hayward.   

The other interesting path here is... the team could consider salary dumping Hayward on a team like the Cavs.  Cleveland was rumored to have some interest.  I'm not going to get into a debate about whether we'd need to include picks to salary dump Hayward, but Cleveland might be able to absorb some or all of his salary.  They have the non-guaranteed JR Smith deal they can trade.   Shedding some/all of Hayward's salary could technically put Boston in position to add a free agent star to pair with Davis/Horford if Kyrie leaves.  Meaning, you could make a pitch to someone like Kawhi to try and pair him with Davis.

One more semi-unrelated thing worth keeping in mind.  If ultimately Kyrie decides he's leaving, it will be in our best interest to work a sign-and-trade.  Say, for instance, he decides to go to the Knicks.  Even if the Knicks have the cap space, it's in our best interest to convince them to do a sign-and-trade.  New York doesn't have to give us any assets... we just need to get back a fat trade exception.    Say we end up with a 35 mil trade exception, we then don't have to worry about letting guys like Rozier and Morris walk.  If there's any picks left over after the Davis trade, we could try to trade the fat 35 mil trade exception + picks for a player like Mike Conley (on the books for 32.5 mil next season for the rebuilding Grizzlies). 

Definitely agree about the trade exception. Good point and feasible. Some suggest we can get a bunch of young players like Knox; I don’t see that.

Don’t you think Tatum + Brown + Smart + picks for AD is a much richer offer than anybody else is giving the Pels? I’d rather fill out some of that salary with the guys you are letting walk above and keep at least one of our three proven guys. Jaylen and Marcus are both on bargain contracts right now; hard to beat their value. If you could keep one and make the rest of your plan work - shedding hayward’s salary and getting an exception for Kyrie, isn’t that a better starting point?
« Last Edit: May 12, 2019, 11:26:58 AM by Sophomore »

Re: Horford free agency thread: Possibly leaving: Page
« Reply #44 on: May 12, 2019, 11:26:14 AM »

Offline nickagneta

  • Global Moderator
  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 37631
  • Tommy Points: 6140
Quote
The Celts still have to find out what Al Horford wants to do. The veteran can opt out of the approximately $29 million he has coming next year, and, according to a league source, Horford would like to stay. The source added that he’d take a more team-friendly number for next season if he can get two more years tacked on.

If Kyrie leaves and Horford opts to restructure his contract, we will now have money to sign Max free agents.
No. We won't. Even if Kyrie and Al both opt out completely and we renounce all free agents, we are still millions away from being able to give any free agent in the league over 6 years a max contract.

Let's say Horford resign for 4 year-60 million deal, he's leaving another 15 million to make a cap room. Doesn't Horford and Kyrie's salary amount for 50 million? We could also restructure Baynes contract and trade the young guys not named Tatum or Brown to make a room for free agents.
Nope. If I said getting rid of Kyrie and Horford completely wouldn't work, what makes you think getting rid of Kyrie and only half Horford's salary would work.

 

Hello! Guest

Welcome to the CelticsStrong Forums.

Community

Signup to win FREE tickets

* indicates required