Poll

Which path would you prefer?

Re-Sign Kyrie + Trade For AD
79 (59.8%)
Re-Sign Kyrie, Don't Trade For AD & Simply Add Depth Or Moderate Upgrades Using Picks + MLE
2 (1.5%)
Let Kyrie Walk, But You Still Trade For AD & Add Depth Or Moderate Upgrades Using Picks + MLE
17 (12.9%)
Let Kyrie Walk, Don't Trade For AD & Simply Build Around The Jays + Young Core + Both Horford, Hayward
32 (24.2%)
Full On Rebuild And Tank, Baby! (Go Crazy)
2 (1.5%)

Total Members Voted: 132

Author Topic: Poll: There's Pretty Much Five Paths From Here. Which Path Would You Prefer?  (Read 3598 times)

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Online RJ87

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Seems to me most have given up on Hayward which is disappointing.

I feel like a healthy offseason and some added motivation from this depressing MIL series will rejuvenate Hayward and he'll become a bigger factor on a regular basis next season. After an injury like he had, I would also cringe at times when he jumped on the court and landed or something like that fearing something bad. I'm sure that played a role in Hayward being less aggressive especially early on. Remember, Paul George found his form about 1.5 years after the injury but it took him a few years to regain all-star form and to be a factor in the playoffs. And this past season he looked like an MVP-caliber player for much of it.

Stop.

From NBC Sports today:
Quote
Weíre coming up on 19-month mark since [Hayward's injury]. Itís becoming harder to fall back on that rationale. Paul George was averaging 27.2 points per game 16 months after his catastrophic leg injury in Las Vegas.
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Offline arctic 3.0

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Seems to me most have given up on Hayward which is disappointing.

I feel like a healthy offseason and some added motivation from this depressing MIL series will rejuvenate Hayward and he'll become a bigger factor on a regular basis next season. After an injury like he had, I would also cringe at times when he jumped on the court and landed or something like that fearing something bad. I'm sure that played a role in Hayward being less aggressive especially early on. Remember, Paul George found his form about 1.5 years after the injury but it took him a few years to regain all-star form and to be a factor in the playoffs. And this past season he looked like an MVP-caliber player for much of it.

Stop.

From NBC Sports today:
Quote
Weíre coming up on 19-month mark since [Hayward's injury]. Itís becoming harder to fall back on that rationale. Paul George was averaging 27.2 points per game 16 months after his catastrophic leg injury in Las Vegas.

Hayward is sunk cost. We canít trade him for more than pennies on the dollar.
Might as well accept heíll be here next year and hope that he returns to form.
Irving, OTOH, doesnít have any excuse. All those who said we canít win a championship with out a player of his caliber should consider that we didnít win anything with him.
His me first personality, abysmal defense, and playoff turtle act make it easy for me to walk away.
Iíd rather cut our losses on Irving (didnít cost much anyway), roll with the kids and build value until a better option comes available.

Offline rocknrollforyoursoul

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Seems to me most have given up on Hayward which is disappointing.

I feel like a healthy offseason and some added motivation from this depressing MIL series will rejuvenate Hayward and he'll become a bigger factor on a regular basis next season. After an injury like he had, I would also cringe at times when he jumped on the court and landed or something like that fearing something bad. I'm sure that played a role in Hayward being less aggressive especially early on. Remember, Paul George found his form about 1.5 years after the injury but it took him a few years to regain all-star form and to be a factor in the playoffs. And this past season he looked like an MVP-caliber player for much of it.

Stop.

From NBC Sports today:
Quote
Weíre coming up on 19-month mark since [Hayward's injury]. Itís becoming harder to fall back on that rationale. Paul George was averaging 27.2 points per game 16 months after his catastrophic leg injury in Las Vegas.

Hayward is sunk cost. We canít trade him for more than pennies on the dollar.
Might as well accept heíll be here next year and hope that he returns to form.
Irving, OTOH, doesnít have any excuse. All those who said we canít win a championship with out a player of his caliber should consider that we didnít win anything with him.
His me first personality, abysmal defense, and playoff turtle act make it easy for me to walk away.
Iíd rather cut our losses on Irving (didnít cost much anyway), roll with the kids and build value until a better option comes available.

I think every team DOES need someone of Irving's offensive caliber to win a title, but Irving may not be a good fit for this team and this coach. If Irving leaves (which I'm not opposed to), we'll need someone else to step into that roleócould be Hayward if he returns to form, or Brown and/or Tatum could develop into that, but none of those three options is a guarantee, so it will be a significant risk if Kyrie leaves and Danny doesn't acquire a proven big-time offensive player to replace him.
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Online SparzWizard

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Option 3 is not happening because if Kyrie walks, Davis is not coming here. And would not be smart to gut our young guns and assets for one year of Davis with no Irving anyway.

So, you are left with Irving + Davis, Irving w/o Davis but a bunch of veteran MLE guys and possibly an alternative candidate like Bradley Beal, No Irving and Davis and moving forward with Tatum/Brown/picks as our future....

or tank baby tank.

Option 1 takes you to NBA Finals guaranteed.
Option 2 takes you to maybe a second-round/east finals exit.
Option 4 takes you to first-round exit.
Option 5 you will be a bottom team, and become more irrelevant than ever.

The east nowadays is not the 2018 East that you all were imagining.

Offline mmmmm

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Seems to me most have given up on Hayward which is disappointing.

I feel like a healthy offseason and some added motivation from this depressing MIL series will rejuvenate Hayward and he'll become a bigger factor on a regular basis next season. After an injury like he had, I would also cringe at times when he jumped on the court and landed or something like that fearing something bad. I'm sure that played a role in Hayward being less aggressive especially early on. Remember, Paul George found his form about 1.5 years after the injury but it took him a few years to regain all-star form and to be a factor in the playoffs. And this past season he looked like an MVP-caliber player for much of it.

Stop.

From NBC Sports today:
Quote
Weíre coming up on 19-month mark since [Hayward's injury]. Itís becoming harder to fall back on that rationale. Paul George was averaging 27.2 points per game 16 months after his catastrophic leg injury in Las Vegas.

That timeline is incorrect.   A major difference between George's recovery and Hayward's is that Hayward had follow-up surgery in May of 2018 -- just 12 months ago.

It's also important to note USG.   George initially came back for a few games in the Spring 2015 of the season following his injury and didn't play all that great, continued rehabbing and training during the Summer and then finally hit the ground running the following Fall 2015 as the top scoring options on his team, getting a whopping 30% USG% and 18 FGA per game.  Yes he was efficient, with a solid 55.7% TS% scoring efficiency.  But he isn't scoring 23.1 points per game without taking a lot of shots.

Over the last couple of months, most of Hayward's efficiency stats were finally back to his pre-injury levels.   He posted the following TS% efficiency rates down the stretch:

Feb:  64.4% TS (17.7% USG, 80 FGA)
Mar:  62.3% TS (20.1% USG, 99 FGA)
Apr:  76.2% TS (18.4% USG, 40 FGA)
Playoffs (IND):  61.5% TS (17.3% USG, 39 FGA)
Playoffs (MIL):  48.4% TS (14.1% USG, 35 FGA)

So as you can see, up until these last few games, which represents a pretty tiny sample, his scoring efficiency has been elite for the last 3 months ... but we just haven't used him very much.

Gordon is not going to post 25 points per game taking that few of shots per game.

And on this team as it is constructed, with usage dominated by Kyrie (who gets over 30% USG) and several other second level scoring options, there has just been no means for Gordon to post up big counting stats.

So that's why his box scores don't look like healthy Paul George box scores.

That last sample is literally an average of just 7 FGA per game.  Gordon was more and more 'frozen out' of the offense in that game as his touch rate (touches of the ball) dropped precipitously lower than what he'd averaged in the prior months.   Over the last 10 games of the regular season, when he was clearly playing his best ball, he averaged ~50 touches of the ball per game.   In these last 4 games of the playoffs, that had dropped to under 38 touches per game.   In the 2nd-to-last game, the one that put the stake through our season, he touched the ball just 27 times.

Think about that.   How on earth can a player contribute if he just isn't getting the ball?

People scream, "Why doesn't he shoot more?"

In that 27 touch game he took 5 FGA.  That's means that he took a shot roughly every 5th touch of the ball.  That's consistent with how he played overall in the playoffs:  One True Scoring Attempt per 4.9 touches.   That's not quite as aggressive as we'd like him to be.   During the last 10 games of the regular season, when he was playing his best ball as a Celtic, that was up to on TSA every 4.1 touches.

In his last season at UTAH, he touched the ball 4563 times.  He had 1345 True Scoring Attempts that season which means he was more aggressive, attempting to score once every 3.4 touches.  He of course got a ton more touches at 62.5 per game.

But clearly, we want him, at his efficiency to be aggressively trying to score more frequently than once every 4 touches.

My overall point is that, all evidence is that his ability to score efficiently seems to be back.  The tiny sample of the last few games doesn't change that.   But he's not getting anywhere near enough utilization to post the kind of counting stat numbers to make a lot of fans happy.   And that is caused by a combination of (a) not enough touches of the ball (which is on the team) and (c) not quite enough aggression (which is still on him).

I think there is no reason to think that he can't make a complete return to his former mojo by next Fall.  All it really should take is a commitment by the team to use him and for Brad to simply tell him to be more aggressive.  There is no reason, assuming his health doesn't go backwards, that he can't become a mid-20s, high-efficiency scorer again.

BUT ... the Celtics as a team need to decide what they want to be on offense.   If the offense is still oriented around Kyrie Irving, getting ~32% USG, dominating touches and shots, and we also add an Anthony Davis who will command heavy USG and we also want to develop whichever Jay we retain to become a confident volume scorer ... then I'm dubious that Gordon will ever get the committed utilization needed to make fans happy with his contract.
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Offline tazzmaniac

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Good poll Phantom. TP for the idea

Thanks. Lot of good discussion here which I hoped for, but the poll itself seems a lot more lopsided than I expected  :P

Maybe a lot of the anti-Kyrie crowd is still asleep or out right now lol
really?

option one has pretty much been the desired option since Davis mentioned he wanted out of NO.  Only hold up on our end would be if he can be resigned or not.

Option 2 is what we had this season more or less.  didn't work too well at all.  won't make the mistake of thinking Hayward will be back to his Utah form nor that Brown/Tatum will continue to make major leaps in development.

Option 3 would be pointless.  if we're getting AD, it's with the purpose of teaming him with Kyrie, not have him instead of Kyrie.  also, if there's no Kyrie, why would he stay here?

Option 4 is a major step backwards.  we lose the best player on the team and then would have to rely on Hayward, Brown and Tatum making major steps forward or we're back to 6-8 seed in the East.

Option 5 is not an option.  way too much talent, dysfunctional though it may be, to blow this up and restart another rebuild. 

I'm amazed option 4 has gotten that many votes but seems many people are just ready to kick Kyrie to the curb.  the "cut your nose off to spite your face" crowd.
I'm not a Kyrie fan.  I don't want another team with Kyrie as the #1 star.  If we can't get AD (or another top star), I'd prefer letting Kyrie walk.   

Online PhoSita

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Seems to me most have given up on Hayward which is disappointing.

I feel like a healthy offseason and some added motivation from this depressing MIL series will rejuvenate Hayward and he'll become a bigger factor on a regular basis next season. After an injury like he had, I would also cringe at times when he jumped on the court and landed or something like that fearing something bad. I'm sure that played a role in Hayward being less aggressive especially early on. Remember, Paul George found his form about 1.5 years after the injury but it took him a few years to regain all-star form and to be a factor in the playoffs. And this past season he looked like an MVP-caliber player for much of it.

Stop.

From NBC Sports today:
Quote
Weíre coming up on 19-month mark since [Hayward's injury]. Itís becoming harder to fall back on that rationale. Paul George was averaging 27.2 points per game 16 months after his catastrophic leg injury in Las Vegas.

That timeline is incorrect.   A major difference between George's recovery and Hayward's is that Hayward had follow-up surgery in May of 2018 -- just 12 months ago.

It's also important to note USG.   George initially came back for a few games in the Spring 2015 of the season following his injury and didn't play all that great, continued rehabbing and training during the Summer and then finally hit the ground running the following Fall 2015 as the top scoring options on his team, getting a whopping 30% USG% and 18 FGA per game.  Yes he was efficient, with a solid 55.7% TS% scoring efficiency.  But he isn't scoring 23.1 points per game without taking a lot of shots.

Over the last couple of months, most of Hayward's efficiency stats were finally back to his pre-injury levels.   He posted the following TS% efficiency rates down the stretch:

Feb:  64.4% TS (17.7% USG, 80 FGA)
Mar:  62.3% TS (20.1% USG, 99 FGA)
Apr:  76.2% TS (18.4% USG, 40 FGA)
Playoffs (IND):  61.5% TS (17.3% USG, 39 FGA)
Playoffs (MIL):  48.4% TS (14.1% USG, 35 FGA)

So as you can see, up until these last few games, which represents a pretty tiny sample, his scoring efficiency has been elite for the last 3 months ... but we just haven't used him very much.

Gordon is not going to post 25 points per game taking that few of shots per game.

And on this team as it is constructed, with usage dominated by Kyrie (who gets over 30% USG) and several other second level scoring options, there has just been no means for Gordon to post up big counting stats.

So that's why his box scores don't look like healthy Paul George box scores.

That last sample is literally an average of just 7 FGA per game.  Gordon was more and more 'frozen out' of the offense in that game as his touch rate (touches of the ball) dropped precipitously lower than what he'd averaged in the prior months.   Over the last 10 games of the regular season, when he was clearly playing his best ball, he averaged ~50 touches of the ball per game.   In these last 4 games of the playoffs, that had dropped to under 38 touches per game.   In the 2nd-to-last game, the one that put the stake through our season, he touched the ball just 27 times.

Think about that.   How on earth can a player contribute if he just isn't getting the ball?

People scream, "Why doesn't he shoot more?"

In that 27 touch game he took 5 FGA.  That's means that he took a shot roughly every 5th touch of the ball.  That's consistent with how he played overall in the playoffs:  One True Scoring Attempt per 4.9 touches.   That's not quite as aggressive as we'd like him to be.   During the last 10 games of the regular season, when he was playing his best ball as a Celtic, that was up to on TSA every 4.1 touches.

In his last season at UTAH, he touched the ball 4563 times.  He had 1345 True Scoring Attempts that season which means he was more aggressive, attempting to score once every 3.4 touches.  He of course got a ton more touches at 62.5 per game.

But clearly, we want him, at his efficiency to be aggressively trying to score more frequently than once every 4 touches.

My overall point is that, all evidence is that his ability to score efficiently seems to be back.  The tiny sample of the last few games doesn't change that.   But he's not getting anywhere near enough utilization to post the kind of counting stat numbers to make a lot of fans happy.   And that is caused by a combination of (a) not enough touches of the ball (which is on the team) and (c) not quite enough aggression (which is still on him).

I think there is no reason to think that he can't make a complete return to his former mojo by next Fall.  All it really should take is a commitment by the team to use him and for Brad to simply tell him to be more aggressive.  There is no reason, assuming his health doesn't go backwards, that he can't become a mid-20s, high-efficiency scorer again.

BUT ... the Celtics as a team need to decide what they want to be on offense.   If the offense is still oriented around Kyrie Irving, getting ~32% USG, dominating touches and shots, and we also add an Anthony Davis who will command heavy USG and we also want to develop whichever Jay we retain to become a confident volume scorer ... then I'm dubious that Gordon will ever get the committed utilization needed to make fans happy with his contract.


This is a phenomenal post.  TP.
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Online Phantom255x

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Seems to me most have given up on Hayward which is disappointing.

I feel like a healthy offseason and some added motivation from this depressing MIL series will rejuvenate Hayward and he'll become a bigger factor on a regular basis next season. After an injury like he had, I would also cringe at times when he jumped on the court and landed or something like that fearing something bad. I'm sure that played a role in Hayward being less aggressive especially early on. Remember, Paul George found his form about 1.5 years after the injury but it took him a few years to regain all-star form and to be a factor in the playoffs. And this past season he looked like an MVP-caliber player for much of it.

Stop.

From NBC Sports today:
Quote
Weíre coming up on 19-month mark since [Hayward's injury]. Itís becoming harder to fall back on that rationale. Paul George was averaging 27.2 points per game 16 months after his catastrophic leg injury in Las Vegas.

That timeline is incorrect.   A major difference between George's recovery and Hayward's is that Hayward had follow-up surgery in May of 2018 -- just 12 months ago.

It's also important to note USG.   George initially came back for a few games in the Spring 2015 of the season following his injury and didn't play all that great, continued rehabbing and training during the Summer and then finally hit the ground running the following Fall 2015 as the top scoring options on his team, getting a whopping 30% USG% and 18 FGA per game.  Yes he was efficient, with a solid 55.7% TS% scoring efficiency.  But he isn't scoring 23.1 points per game without taking a lot of shots.

Over the last couple of months, most of Hayward's efficiency stats were finally back to his pre-injury levels.   He posted the following TS% efficiency rates down the stretch:

Feb:  64.4% TS (17.7% USG, 80 FGA)
Mar:  62.3% TS (20.1% USG, 99 FGA)
Apr:  76.2% TS (18.4% USG, 40 FGA)
Playoffs (IND):  61.5% TS (17.3% USG, 39 FGA)
Playoffs (MIL):  48.4% TS (14.1% USG, 35 FGA)

So as you can see, up until these last few games, which represents a pretty tiny sample, his scoring efficiency has been elite for the last 3 months ... but we just haven't used him very much.

Gordon is not going to post 25 points per game taking that few of shots per game.

And on this team as it is constructed, with usage dominated by Kyrie (who gets over 30% USG) and several other second level scoring options, there has just been no means for Gordon to post up big counting stats.

So that's why his box scores don't look like healthy Paul George box scores.

That last sample is literally an average of just 7 FGA per game.  Gordon was more and more 'frozen out' of the offense in that game as his touch rate (touches of the ball) dropped precipitously lower than what he'd averaged in the prior months.   Over the last 10 games of the regular season, when he was clearly playing his best ball, he averaged ~50 touches of the ball per game.   In these last 4 games of the playoffs, that had dropped to under 38 touches per game.   In the 2nd-to-last game, the one that put the stake through our season, he touched the ball just 27 times.

Think about that.   How on earth can a player contribute if he just isn't getting the ball?

People scream, "Why doesn't he shoot more?"

In that 27 touch game he took 5 FGA.  That's means that he took a shot roughly every 5th touch of the ball.  That's consistent with how he played overall in the playoffs:  One True Scoring Attempt per 4.9 touches.   That's not quite as aggressive as we'd like him to be.   During the last 10 games of the regular season, when he was playing his best ball as a Celtic, that was up to on TSA every 4.1 touches.

In his last season at UTAH, he touched the ball 4563 times.  He had 1345 True Scoring Attempts that season which means he was more aggressive, attempting to score once every 3.4 touches.  He of course got a ton more touches at 62.5 per game.

But clearly, we want him, at his efficiency to be aggressively trying to score more frequently than once every 4 touches.

My overall point is that, all evidence is that his ability to score efficiently seems to be back.  The tiny sample of the last few games doesn't change that.   But he's not getting anywhere near enough utilization to post the kind of counting stat numbers to make a lot of fans happy.   And that is caused by a combination of (a) not enough touches of the ball (which is on the team) and (c) not quite enough aggression (which is still on him).

I think there is no reason to think that he can't make a complete return to his former mojo by next Fall.  All it really should take is a commitment by the team to use him and for Brad to simply tell him to be more aggressive.  There is no reason, assuming his health doesn't go backwards, that he can't become a mid-20s, high-efficiency scorer again.

BUT ... the Celtics as a team need to decide what they want to be on offense.   If the offense is still oriented around Kyrie Irving, getting ~32% USG, dominating touches and shots, and we also add an Anthony Davis who will command heavy USG and we also want to develop whichever Jay we retain to become a confident volume scorer ... then I'm dubious that Gordon will ever get the committed utilization needed to make fans happy with his contract.

TP. This is all very well said.  :)
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Offline tenn_smoothie

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How anyone can want Kyrie Irving to remain a Celtic, after what we just witnessed, is beyond me. His awful performances were bad enough, but his body language during games and his insulting comments after games were even worse. I vote #4, all day long.
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Online RazzelnoDazzel

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Seems to me most have given up on Hayward which is disappointing.

I feel like a healthy offseason and some added motivation from this depressing MIL series will rejuvenate Hayward and he'll become a bigger factor on a regular basis next season. After an injury like he had, I would also cringe at times when he jumped on the court and landed or something like that fearing something bad. I'm sure that played a role in Hayward being less aggressive especially early on. Remember, Paul George found his form about 1.5 years after the injury but it took him a few years to regain all-star form and to be a factor in the playoffs. And this past season he looked like an MVP-caliber player for much of it.

Stop.

From NBC Sports today:
Quote
Weíre coming up on 19-month mark since [Hayward's injury]. Itís becoming harder to fall back on that rationale. Paul George was averaging 27.2 points per game 16 months after his catastrophic leg injury in Las Vegas.

Well apparently trading him is another option. A good thing is if he opts in and gets traded then whomever team he goes to canít have AD on it.

Offline Vermont Green

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Long discussion about Hayward with lots of stats but from what I see on the court, I would say he is not fully back.  He was very efficient down the stretch as the mmmmm showed in his analysis but we all know that efficiency is not something that extrapolates linearly.  You can't just assume that someone having 60% eff% with x shots is going to be the same at 2x shots.

Now on the other hand, Hayward is going to get a whole off season to reset and build on his season.  There is not doubt that there was improvement throughout the season, the last 4 games notwithstanding.  I expect he will continue to improve some but hard to say how much.  Hayward will likely have better numbers if Kyrie does not come back; more usage, more points, but not necessarily the same or better efficiency.

Offline Sophomore

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Seems to me most have given up on Hayward which is disappointing.

I feel like a healthy offseason and some added motivation from this depressing MIL series will rejuvenate Hayward and he'll become a bigger factor on a regular basis next season. After an injury like he had, I would also cringe at times when he jumped on the court and landed or something like that fearing something bad. I'm sure that played a role in Hayward being less aggressive especially early on. Remember, Paul George found his form about 1.5 years after the injury but it took him a few years to regain all-star form and to be a factor in the playoffs. And this past season he looked like an MVP-caliber player for much of it.

Stop.

From NBC Sports today:
Quote
We’re coming up on 19-month mark since [Hayward's injury]. It’s becoming harder to fall back on that rationale. Paul George was averaging 27.2 points per game 16 months after his catastrophic leg injury in Las Vegas.

That timeline is incorrect.   A major difference between George's recovery and Hayward's is that Hayward had follow-up surgery in May of 2018 -- just 12 months ago.

It's also important to note USG.   George initially came back for a few games in the Spring 2015 of the season following his injury and didn't play all that great, continued rehabbing and training during the Summer and then finally hit the ground running the following Fall 2015 as the top scoring options on his team, getting a whopping 30% USG% and 18 FGA per game.  Yes he was efficient, with a solid 55.7% TS% scoring efficiency.  But he isn't scoring 23.1 points per game without taking a lot of shots.

Over the last couple of months, most of Hayward's efficiency stats were finally back to his pre-injury levels.   He posted the following TS% efficiency rates down the stretch:

Feb:  64.4% TS (17.7% USG, 80 FGA)
Mar:  62.3% TS (20.1% USG, 99 FGA)
Apr:  76.2% TS (18.4% USG, 40 FGA)
Playoffs (IND):  61.5% TS (17.3% USG, 39 FGA)
Playoffs (MIL):  48.4% TS (14.1% USG, 35 FGA)

So as you can see, up until these last few games, which represents a pretty tiny sample, his scoring efficiency has been elite for the last 3 months ... but we just haven't used him very much.

Gordon is not going to post 25 points per game taking that few of shots per game.

And on this team as it is constructed, with usage dominated by Kyrie (who gets over 30% USG) and several other second level scoring options, there has just been no means for Gordon to post up big counting stats.

So that's why his box scores don't look like healthy Paul George box scores.

That last sample is literally an average of just 7 FGA per game.  Gordon was more and more 'frozen out' of the offense in that game as his touch rate (touches of the ball) dropped precipitously lower than what he'd averaged in the prior months.   Over the last 10 games of the regular season, when he was clearly playing his best ball, he averaged ~50 touches of the ball per game.   In these last 4 games of the playoffs, that had dropped to under 38 touches per game.   In the 2nd-to-last game, the one that put the stake through our season, he touched the ball just 27 times.

Think about that.   How on earth can a player contribute if he just isn't getting the ball?

People scream, "Why doesn't he shoot more?"

In that 27 touch game he took 5 FGA.  That's means that he took a shot roughly every 5th touch of the ball.  That's consistent with how he played overall in the playoffs:  One True Scoring Attempt per 4.9 touches.   That's not quite as aggressive as we'd like him to be.   During the last 10 games of the regular season, when he was playing his best ball as a Celtic, that was up to on TSA every 4.1 touches.

In his last season at UTAH, he touched the ball 4563 times.  He had 1345 True Scoring Attempts that season which means he was more aggressive, attempting to score once every 3.4 touches.  He of course got a ton more touches at 62.5 per game.

But clearly, we want him, at his efficiency to be aggressively trying to score more frequently than once every 4 touches.

My overall point is that, all evidence is that his ability to score efficiently seems to be back.  The tiny sample of the last few games doesn't change that.   But he's not getting anywhere near enough utilization to post the kind of counting stat numbers to make a lot of fans happy.   And that is caused by a combination of (a) not enough touches of the ball (which is on the team) and (c) not quite enough aggression (which is still on him).

I think there is no reason to think that he can't make a complete return to his former mojo by next Fall.  All it really should take is a commitment by the team to use him and for Brad to simply tell him to be more aggressive.  There is no reason, assuming his health doesn't go backwards, that he can't become a mid-20s, high-efficiency scorer again.

BUT ... the Celtics as a team need to decide what they want to be on offense.   If the offense is still oriented around Kyrie Irving, getting ~32% USG, dominating touches and shots, and we also add an Anthony Davis who will command heavy USG and we also want to develop whichever Jay we retain to become a confident volume scorer ... then I'm dubious that Gordon will ever get the committed utilization needed to make fans happy with his contract.

TP. This is all very well said.  :)

Great post, which also raises a big question: if Hayward’s best value is realized on high usage (where he not only shoots, but also drives and sprays the ball) can he coexist with AD and Kyrie in the playoffs? I’m already a little concerned about how well AD and Kyrie’s style could coexist - if AD is in the post and Kyrie wants to run high pick and roll or iso, and Gordon wants to run curls or start with the ball on the perimeter looking to attack - you have three guys who want to be using the same part of the court a different way. Does it work?

Offline Kuberski33

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Seems to me most have given up on Hayward which is disappointing.

I feel like a healthy offseason and some added motivation from this depressing MIL series will rejuvenate Hayward and he'll become a bigger factor on a regular basis next season. After an injury like he had, I would also cringe at times when he jumped on the court and landed or something like that fearing something bad. I'm sure that played a role in Hayward being less aggressive especially early on. Remember, Paul George found his form about 1.5 years after the injury but it took him a few years to regain all-star form and to be a factor in the playoffs. And this past season he looked like an MVP-caliber player for much of it.

Stop.

From NBC Sports today:
Quote
Weíre coming up on 19-month mark since [Hayward's injury]. Itís becoming harder to fall back on that rationale. Paul George was averaging 27.2 points per game 16 months after his catastrophic leg injury in Las Vegas.

That timeline is incorrect.   A major difference between George's recovery and Hayward's is that Hayward had follow-up surgery in May of 2018 -- just 12 months ago.

It's also important to note USG.   George initially came back for a few games in the Spring 2015 of the season following his injury and didn't play all that great, continued rehabbing and training during the Summer and then finally hit the ground running the following Fall 2015 as the top scoring options on his team, getting a whopping 30% USG% and 18 FGA per game.  Yes he was efficient, with a solid 55.7% TS% scoring efficiency.  But he isn't scoring 23.1 points per game without taking a lot of shots.

Over the last couple of months, most of Hayward's efficiency stats were finally back to his pre-injury levels.   He posted the following TS% efficiency rates down the stretch:

Feb:  64.4% TS (17.7% USG, 80 FGA)
Mar:  62.3% TS (20.1% USG, 99 FGA)
Apr:  76.2% TS (18.4% USG, 40 FGA)
Playoffs (IND):  61.5% TS (17.3% USG, 39 FGA)
Playoffs (MIL):  48.4% TS (14.1% USG, 35 FGA)

So as you can see, up until these last few games, which represents a pretty tiny sample, his scoring efficiency has been elite for the last 3 months ... but we just haven't used him very much.

Gordon is not going to post 25 points per game taking that few of shots per game.

And on this team as it is constructed, with usage dominated by Kyrie (who gets over 30% USG) and several other second level scoring options, there has just been no means for Gordon to post up big counting stats.

So that's why his box scores don't look like healthy Paul George box scores.

That last sample is literally an average of just 7 FGA per game.  Gordon was more and more 'frozen out' of the offense in that game as his touch rate (touches of the ball) dropped precipitously lower than what he'd averaged in the prior months.   Over the last 10 games of the regular season, when he was clearly playing his best ball, he averaged ~50 touches of the ball per game.   In these last 4 games of the playoffs, that had dropped to under 38 touches per game.   In the 2nd-to-last game, the one that put the stake through our season, he touched the ball just 27 times.

Think about that.   How on earth can a player contribute if he just isn't getting the ball?

People scream, "Why doesn't he shoot more?"

In that 27 touch game he took 5 FGA.  That's means that he took a shot roughly every 5th touch of the ball.  That's consistent with how he played overall in the playoffs:  One True Scoring Attempt per 4.9 touches.   That's not quite as aggressive as we'd like him to be.   During the last 10 games of the regular season, when he was playing his best ball as a Celtic, that was up to on TSA every 4.1 touches.

In his last season at UTAH, he touched the ball 4563 times.  He had 1345 True Scoring Attempts that season which means he was more aggressive, attempting to score once every 3.4 touches.  He of course got a ton more touches at 62.5 per game.

But clearly, we want him, at his efficiency to be aggressively trying to score more frequently than once every 4 touches.

My overall point is that, all evidence is that his ability to score efficiently seems to be back.  The tiny sample of the last few games doesn't change that.   But he's not getting anywhere near enough utilization to post the kind of counting stat numbers to make a lot of fans happy.   And that is caused by a combination of (a) not enough touches of the ball (which is on the team) and (c) not quite enough aggression (which is still on him).

I think there is no reason to think that he can't make a complete return to his former mojo by next Fall.  All it really should take is a commitment by the team to use him and for Brad to simply tell him to be more aggressive.  There is no reason, assuming his health doesn't go backwards, that he can't become a mid-20s, high-efficiency scorer again.

BUT ... the Celtics as a team need to decide what they want to be on offense.   If the offense is still oriented around Kyrie Irving, getting ~32% USG, dominating touches and shots, and we also add an Anthony Davis who will command heavy USG and we also want to develop whichever Jay we retain to become a confident volume scorer ... then I'm dubious that Gordon will ever get the committed utilization needed to make fans happy with his contract.
It's tough to see the ball much when you're playing with Kyrie, Rozier and Morris. The first 2 dominate the ball, the 3rd doesn't pass once he touches it. It would be nice to have a pass-first PG as part of the mix.

Online Phantom255x

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Long discussion about Hayward with lots of stats but from what I see on the court, I would say he is not fully back.  He was very efficient down the stretch as the mmmmm showed in his analysis but we all know that efficiency is not something that extrapolates linearly.  You can't just assume that someone having 60% eff% with x shots is going to be the same at 2x shots.

Now on the other hand, Hayward is going to get a whole off season to reset and build on his season.  There is not doubt that there was improvement throughout the season, the last 4 games notwithstanding.  I expect he will continue to improve some but hard to say how much.  Hayward will likely have better numbers if Kyrie does not come back; more usage, more points, but not necessarily the same or better efficiency.

Yep, a healthy offseason with better strength and conditioning should do him wonders.
"Tough times never last, but tough people do." - Robert H. Schuller

Offline Casperian

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Well, what I want is a trade for AD and let Kyrie leave, but I'm willing to compromise on the Kyrie thing if it's absolutely necessary to keep Davis for more than a year.

Ideally, I would like to keep Al Horford through all of this.
In the summer of 2017, I predicted this team would not win a championship for the next 10 years.

2 down, 8 to go.

 

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