Author Topic: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?  (Read 3975 times)

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So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« on: March 07, 2019, 01:03:54 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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The clippers now look like they have a reasonable chance at making the playoffs and giving us their pick (I had assumed it was dead when they traded Harris)

I also had assumed the Memphis pick was dead with its top 8 protections. However Dallas has been tanking hard in hopes of increasing their chances of getting their pick back (top 5 protected) and Memphis has gone 6-7 in their last 13 games. The wizards are also only struggling and close to being eliminated from the playoffs 3 losses back. More interesting, Dallas still plays Memphis twice in games the two teams have opposite incentives (It is believe Memphis wants to give the pick away this year, and Dallas wants to keep their pick).

What do you all think? Possible we end up with picks 9,14, 17 and 24 or so?

Re: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« Reply #1 on: March 07, 2019, 01:08:17 PM »

Offline footey

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If the season ended today, what are the odds that Memphis pick lands outside top 8?  Like less than 10%??

Re: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2019, 01:30:47 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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If the season ended today, what are the odds that Memphis pick lands outside top 8?  Like less than 10%??

They are currently 6th worst record. I can't easily find the odds of 3 teams jumping them, but it is extremely small. The key part of this though is that they have a very reasonable chance of passing Dallas and the Wizards. Dallas is not even being competitive in their games right now and have lost 9 of 11 with all 9 losses by least 9 points (they also play Memphis twice). The Wizards are also only a game up on them and may be folding up the tents soon as they get eliminated from the playoffs.

If those two things happen, and i would be shocked if the Dallas one doesn't, we get to 30% odds of keeping the pick. If Memphis gets hot and somehow passed Pelicans or Hornets, they jump all the way ro 50% I believe.

Re: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« Reply #3 on: March 07, 2019, 01:40:07 PM »

Offline indeedproceed

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The clippers now look like they have a reasonable chance at making the playoffs and giving us their pick (I had assumed it was dead when they traded Harris)

The Clippers are the most fun team to watch in the NBA right now. I've been trying to call them 'This Year's Punk Rock Celtics" but nobody is getting on board.

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like that is always lethal." - Evan 'The God' Turner

Re: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« Reply #4 on: March 07, 2019, 01:40:53 PM »

Offline footey

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If the season ended today, what are the odds that Memphis pick lands outside top 8?  Like less than 10%??

They are currently 6th worst record. I can't easily find the odds of 3 teams jumping them, but it is extremely small. The key part of this though is that they have a very reasonable chance of passing Dallas and the Wizards. Dallas is not even being competitive in their games right now and have lost 9 of 11 with all 9 losses by least 9 points (they also play Memphis twice). The Wizards are also only a game up on them and may be folding up the tents soon as they get eliminated from the playoffs.

If those two things happen, and i would be shocked if the Dallas one doesn't, we get to 30% odds of keeping the pick. If Memphis gets hot and somehow passed Pelicans or Hornets, they jump all the way ro 50% I believe.

thx cc, TP.

Re: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« Reply #5 on: March 07, 2019, 01:43:37 PM »

Offline tstorey_97

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Thanks for update celticsclay..TP.

Be interesting to see what Ainge might do with 4 first round picks. He has nowhere to put the "extra three" from a cap/roster standpoint.

I also wonder what potential backup trade ideas he has if Davis goes to LA. Hopefully they involve two or three first rounders this year as we have a full inventory.

Re: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« Reply #6 on: March 07, 2019, 01:49:43 PM »

Offline Donoghus

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That would suck if they all convey.


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Re: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« Reply #7 on: March 07, 2019, 01:51:30 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

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The Memphis pick isn't going to convey. If you use tankathon it is quite difficult to get a roll when the Memphis pick conveys .... Clippers pick conveying is good

Not sure what you're looking at

Re: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« Reply #8 on: March 07, 2019, 01:58:25 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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The Memphis pick isn't going to convey. If you use tankathon it is quite difficult to get a roll when the Memphis pick conveys .... Clippers pick conveying is good

Not sure what you're looking at

Did you read what I wrote? I've already explained this.

Re: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« Reply #9 on: March 07, 2019, 02:11:19 PM »

Offline Big333223

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That would suck if they all convey.

I think they're all pretty likely to all get traded.

And I think the Memphis pick is still likely to roll over, even with Dallas going for the tank.
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Re: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« Reply #10 on: March 07, 2019, 02:17:23 PM »

Offline Green-18

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That would suck if they all convey.

I think they're all pretty likely to all get traded.

And I think the Memphis pick is still likely to roll over, even with Dallas going for the tank.

I could see Danny using 1 of the picks to draft a replacement for Rozier if Kyrie re-signs. 

Re: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« Reply #11 on: March 07, 2019, 02:19:45 PM »

Offline footey

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If the season ended today, what are the odds that Memphis pick lands outside top 8?  Like less than 10%??

They are currently 6th worst record. I can't easily find the odds of 3 teams jumping them, but it is extremely small. The key part of this though is that they have a very reasonable chance of passing Dallas and the Wizards. Dallas is not even being competitive in their games right now and have lost 9 of 11 with all 9 losses by least 9 points (they also play Memphis twice). The Wizards are also only a game up on them and may be folding up the tents soon as they get eliminated from the playoffs.

If those two things happen, and i would be shocked if the Dallas one doesn't, we get to 30% odds of keeping the pick. If Memphis gets hot and somehow passed Pelicans or Hornets, they jump all the way ro 50% I believe.

One question: I know Dallas is playing awful, but do they own their first round pick? If not, no incentive to tank balance of season.

Re: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« Reply #12 on: March 07, 2019, 02:27:10 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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If the season ended today, what are the odds that Memphis pick lands outside top 8?  Like less than 10%??

They are currently 6th worst record. I can't easily find the odds of 3 teams jumping them, but it is extremely small. The key part of this though is that they have a very reasonable chance of passing Dallas and the Wizards. Dallas is not even being competitive in their games right now and have lost 9 of 11 with all 9 losses by least 9 points (they also play Memphis twice). The Wizards are also only a game up on them and may be folding up the tents soon as they get eliminated from the playoffs.

If those two things happen, and i would be shocked if the Dallas one doesn't, we get to 30% odds of keeping the pick. If Memphis gets hot and somehow passed Pelicans or Hornets, they jump all the way ro 50% I believe.

One question: I know Dallas is playing awful, but do they own their first round pick? If not, no incentive to tank balance of season.

Dallas gets to keep their pick if it is in the top 5. So they actually probably have the most incentive to tank of any team in the league.
Here is an article on Ringer about it, this was part of the reason I realized we had a higher chance of getting memphis pick than previously thought.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/3/7/18254319/dallas-mavericks-lottery-odds-keep-draft-pick

Re: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« Reply #13 on: March 07, 2019, 02:27:21 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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I remember a while back before the Gasol trade Grizz did want that pick conveyed this year if possible.
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Re: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« Reply #14 on: March 07, 2019, 02:32:49 PM »

Offline rondofan1255

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I remember a while back before the Gasol trade Grizz did want that pick conveyed this year if possible.

They do but they also already shut down Jaren Jackson Jr., and Conley might be seeing reduced minutes or rest days soon. Already had a rest day this past week.

They’re still often collapsing with the lead in crunch time, so no better than 8th worst record (30% chance of conveying, as listed by OP) IMO. #9 Charlotte has 29 wins, #10 has 30.

 

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