Author Topic: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?  (Read 3978 times)

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Re: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« Reply #75 on: March 13, 2019, 08:24:43 AM »

Offline smokeablount

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Memphis pick right now has a 14.2% chance of dropping to 9th or 10th in the lottery.

If Memphis drops to 8th place then those odds jump to 39.2% 9-11th

iF Memphis finishes in 9th the odds are 79.7% it is 9-12

Memphis remaining schedule and NOPs likeliness to tank out the season makes the odds very good overall the pick will convey this season

Remaining 14 games with games against
Washington
Atlanta
Phoenix
Dallas
Dallas


as well as Orlando and Minny which are winnable but I think those 2 teams are looking to win games, not tank

Dallas will drop to 6th worst.  I hope Memphis lands #7 but they're winning and NO & Washington pose a threat to drop below them, especially NO as you point out. 
Give us this pick, Almighty Red
And forgive us our tanking
As we forgive those who tanked against us
And lead us not into the lottery
But deliver us from losing

-Sexyscottish

Re: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« Reply #76 on: March 13, 2019, 08:25:39 AM »

Offline Silky

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Sacramento pick currently has only 1.9% chance to move up to pick 2-4

If they drop to the 13th pick the odds are 3.7% pick 2-4

If they drop to 12th the odds are 5.7% 2-4

Drop to 11th is 7.4% 2-4

Drop to 10th is 10.9%


Remaining 16 games, 9 are on road, 8 are against playoff teams (which could be good or bad depending on if teams are resting players, or positioning for seeding)

Games against
@Boston
@Philly
Brooklyn
@Houston
@SAS
Houston
@Utah
@Portland

A tough schedule for them to close out season. and sitting ahead of them in  standings is Minny, Charlotte and Orlando who all or most likely pushing hard for a playoff position.

Minny is 2 games out of playoffs
Charlotte is only 1.5 games back
Orlando is only 1 game back

Only 5 games separate Sacramento from the 9th place Pelicans. and only 3.5 games separating Charlotte, Orlando, Minny and Sacramento so it is possible that Sacramento could end up dropping as many as 3 places by seasons end.


Should be a exciting finish as far as the picks go.
Dallas
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Re: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« Reply #77 on: March 13, 2019, 09:15:10 AM »

Offline Sophomore

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Sacramento pick currently has only 1.9% chance to move up to pick 2-4

If they drop to the 13th pick the odds are 3.7% pick 2-4

If they drop to 12th the odds are 5.7% 2-4

Drop to 11th is 7.4% 2-4

Drop to 10th is 10.9%


Remaining 16 games, 9 are on road, 8 are against playoff teams (which could be good or bad depending on if teams are resting players, or positioning for seeding)

Games against
@Boston
@Philly
Brooklyn
@Houston
@SAS
Houston
@Utah
@Portland

A tough schedule for them to close out season. and sitting ahead of them in  standings is Minny, Charlotte and Orlando who all or most likely pushing hard for a playoff position.

Minny is 2 games out of playoffs
Charlotte is only 1.5 games back
Orlando is only 1 game back

Only 5 games separate Sacramento from the 9th place Pelicans. and only 3.5 games separating Charlotte, Orlando, Minny and Sacramento so it is possible that Sacramento could end up dropping as many as 3 places by seasons end.


Should be a exciting finish as far as the picks go.

Tankathon has a nice resource – a page that gives you the strength of schedule remaining for each team. http://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

For Sacramento’s position to move up to 11-13, the teams that are most likely to pass them are Minnesota, the Lakers, and Orlando. MN and the Lakers are three games back in the loss with tougher schedules than Sacto and we know the Lakers are tanking. Tbh, I’d also be surprised if MN thinks they have any shot at the playoffs.

Orlando has an easier schedule, and they might want to win because they are only two games out of the playoffs. But they are four games behind in the loss column with about 15 to go; net, Sacto is going to have to really fall apart or Orlando will have to really tear it up.

It’s true that at some point playoff teams may start resting their stars, but that’s hard to count on and of course the bad teams (Lakers, cough cough) are in tank mode.

Net I’d say 75% chance of pick 14, 20% pick 13, 5% better than 13.

Re: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« Reply #78 on: March 13, 2019, 09:23:34 AM »

Online tazzmaniac

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Sacramento pick currently has only 1.9% chance to move up to pick 2-4

If they drop to the 13th pick the odds are 3.7% pick 2-4

If they drop to 12th the odds are 5.7% 2-4

Drop to 11th is 7.4% 2-4

Drop to 10th is 10.9%


Remaining 16 games, 9 are on road, 8 are against playoff teams (which could be good or bad depending on if teams are resting players, or positioning for seeding)

Games against
@Boston
@Philly
Brooklyn
@Houston
@SAS
Houston
@Utah
@Portland

A tough schedule for them to close out season. and sitting ahead of them in  standings is Minny, Charlotte and Orlando who all or most likely pushing hard for a playoff position.

Minny is 2 games out of playoffs
Charlotte is only 1.5 games back
Orlando is only 1 game back


Only 5 games separate Sacramento from the 9th place Pelicans. and only 3.5 games separating Charlotte, Orlando, Minny and Sacramento so it is possible that Sacramento could end up dropping as many as 3 places by seasons end.


Should be a exciting finish as far as the picks go.
Look again.  Minny is 6 games back of Utah for the 8th seed.  The Kings are 4 back.  The playoff race in the West is almost over. 

Re: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« Reply #79 on: March 13, 2019, 09:33:51 AM »

Offline Silky

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Sacramento pick currently has only 1.9% chance to move up to pick 2-4

If they drop to the 13th pick the odds are 3.7% pick 2-4

If they drop to 12th the odds are 5.7% 2-4

Drop to 11th is 7.4% 2-4

Drop to 10th is 10.9%


Remaining 16 games, 9 are on road, 8 are against playoff teams (which could be good or bad depending on if teams are resting players, or positioning for seeding)

Games against
@Boston
@Philly
Brooklyn
@Houston
@SAS
Houston
@Utah
@Portland

A tough schedule for them to close out season. and sitting ahead of them in  standings is Minny, Charlotte and Orlando who all or most likely pushing hard for a playoff position.

Minny is 2 games out of playoffs
Charlotte is only 1.5 games back
Orlando is only 1 game back


Only 5 games separate Sacramento from the 9th place Pelicans. and only 3.5 games separating Charlotte, Orlando, Minny and Sacramento so it is possible that Sacramento could end up dropping as many as 3 places by seasons end.


Should be a exciting finish as far as the picks go.
Look again.  Minny is 6 games back of Utah for the 8th seed.  The Kings are 4 back.  The playoff race in the West is almost over.

Right, my bad.

Got confused between games back of Sacramento and playoffs
Dallas
PG:Kemba/Brunson/Barea  SG:Brogdon/Snell/Broekhoff  SF: Doncic/Batum/Finley-smith  PF: White/Kleber/Dirk  C: Jordan/Powell/Sejri

Bucks
G-Hill, Bledsoe, Matthews, Snell, DiVincenzo, Connaughton, Brown F-Greek, Middleton, Illyasova, Smith, Maker, Spalding, Wood C- Lopez,

Re: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« Reply #80 on: March 13, 2019, 11:03:02 AM »

Online triboy16f

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not 4 but 3 yes

Kings (14-16 range), Clippers (18-20 range), Celtics own pick (21-24 range)

Memphis will keep their pick. And I wouldn't be surprised they tank on purpose next season also

The good thing is that the Celts at least get the Clippers pick this season. Hopefully they hover around the 16th pick

Re: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« Reply #81 on: March 13, 2019, 11:54:40 AM »

Online slamtheking

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Sacramento pick currently has only 1.9% chance to move up to pick 2-4

If they drop to the 13th pick the odds are 3.7% pick 2-4

If they drop to 12th the odds are 5.7% 2-4

Drop to 11th is 7.4% 2-4

Drop to 10th is 10.9%


Remaining 16 games, 9 are on road, 8 are against playoff teams (which could be good or bad depending on if teams are resting players, or positioning for seeding)

Games against
@Boston
@Philly
Brooklyn
@Houston
@SAS
Houston
@Utah
@Portland

A tough schedule for them to close out season. and sitting ahead of them in  standings is Minny, Charlotte and Orlando who all or most likely pushing hard for a playoff position.

Minny is 2 games out of playoffs
Charlotte is only 1.5 games back
Orlando is only 1 game back


Only 5 games separate Sacramento from the 9th place Pelicans. and only 3.5 games separating Charlotte, Orlando, Minny and Sacramento so it is possible that Sacramento could end up dropping as many as 3 places by seasons end.


Should be a exciting finish as far as the picks go.
Look again.  Minny is 6 games back of Utah for the 8th seed.  The Kings are 4 back.  The playoff race in the West is almost over.

Right, my bad.

Got confused between games back of Sacramento and playoffs
This thread will help you out

https://forum.celticsstrong.com/index.php?topic=98568.0

Re: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« Reply #82 on: March 13, 2019, 11:55:45 AM »

Online slamtheking

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not 4 but 3 yes

Kings (14-16 range), Clippers (18-20 range), Celtics own pick (21-24 range)

Memphis will keep their pick. And I wouldn't be surprised they tank on purpose next season also

The good thing is that the Celts at least get the Clippers pick this season. Hopefully they hover around the 16th pick

Kings aren't making the playoffs so they won't be worse than #14.  as it is, they're looking locked in to the #14 spot and an outside shot of #13 unless there's some lottery magic coming our way.

Re: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« Reply #83 on: March 13, 2019, 11:57:22 AM »

Offline celticsclay

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not 4 but 3 yes

Kings (14-16 range), Clippers (18-20 range), Celtics own pick (21-24 range)

Memphis will keep their pick. And I wouldn't be surprised they tank on purpose next season also

The good thing is that the Celts at least get the Clippers pick this season. Hopefully they hover around the 16th pick

Not sure where you are getting your Memphis thoughts. Since I made this thread the grizzlies have since passed Dallas and tied Washington. They are now just two wins back of evening up with the pelicans who have lost holiday and are desperately imploding. Memphis can pick up another win tonight against hawks. It is really in their best interest to give the pick now and be able to freely tank next season

Re: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« Reply #84 on: March 13, 2019, 12:15:19 PM »

Offline Sophomore

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not 4 but 3 yes

Kings (14-16 range), Clippers (18-20 range), Celtics own pick (21-24 range)

Memphis will keep their pick. And I wouldn't be surprised they tank on purpose next season also

The good thing is that the Celts at least get the Clippers pick this season. Hopefully they hover around the 16th pick

Not sure where you are getting your Memphis thoughts. Since I made this thread the grizzlies have since passed Dallas and tied Washington. They are now just two wins back of evening up with the pelicans who have lost holiday and are desperately imploding. Memphis can pick up another win tonight against hawks. It is really in their best interest to give the pick now and be able to freely tank next season

Bingo. Odds are Cs will have something like 9-14-18-23.

Re: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« Reply #85 on: March 13, 2019, 12:26:19 PM »

Offline GreenEnvy

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not 4 but 3 yes

Kings (14-16 range), Clippers (18-20 range), Celtics own pick (21-24 range)

Memphis will keep their pick. And I wouldn't be surprised they tank on purpose next season also

The good thing is that the Celts at least get the Clippers pick this season. Hopefully they hover around the 16th pick

Not sure where you are getting your Memphis thoughts. Since I made this thread the grizzlies have since passed Dallas and tied Washington. They are now just two wins back of evening up with the pelicans who have lost holiday and are desperately imploding. Memphis can pick up another win tonight against hawks. It is really in their best interest to give the pick now and be able to freely tank next season

Agreed. I think they want this pick to convey now, so they can go into freefall mode the next couple seasons and not have to worry about giving up a top-5 pick.
I AM A CELTIC

Re: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« Reply #86 on: March 13, 2019, 12:27:59 PM »

Offline Silky

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not 4 but 3 yes

Kings (14-16 range), Clippers (18-20 range), Celtics own pick (21-24 range)

Memphis will keep their pick. And I wouldn't be surprised they tank on purpose next season also

The good thing is that the Celts at least get the Clippers pick this season. Hopefully they hover around the 16th pick

Not sure where you are getting your Memphis thoughts. Since I made this thread the grizzlies have since passed Dallas and tied Washington. They are now just two wins back of evening up with the pelicans who have lost holiday and are desperately imploding. Memphis can pick up another win tonight against hawks. It is really in their best interest to give the pick now and be able to freely tank next season

Bingo. Odds are Cs will have something like 9-14-18-23.

Luck is going to come to the Celtics between now and draft lottery in terms of their picks.

Sacramento is going to finish at 13th and Memphis at 9.

Sacramento pick is going to jump to 4th, Memphis stays, Clippers pick will be 17th and ours will be 24th
Dallas
PG:Kemba/Brunson/Barea  SG:Brogdon/Snell/Broekhoff  SF: Doncic/Batum/Finley-smith  PF: White/Kleber/Dirk  C: Jordan/Powell/Sejri

Bucks
G-Hill, Bledsoe, Matthews, Snell, DiVincenzo, Connaughton, Brown F-Greek, Middleton, Illyasova, Smith, Maker, Spalding, Wood C- Lopez,

Re: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« Reply #87 on: March 13, 2019, 01:19:13 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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Quote
It is really in their best interest to give the pick now and be able to freely tank next season

I think there's a debate there.  If Memphis stayed in the bottom-6, they'd have around a 40% chance of moving into the top-4, and a 9% shot at Zion.

By dropping to #9, they'd cut those odds basically in half.

Which move is better for their future?  Maximizing odds this year, or next? 


Once a CrotoNat, always a CrotoNat.  CelticsBlog Draft Champions, 2009 & 2012;
DKC Draft 2015 Champions and beyond...

Re: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« Reply #88 on: March 13, 2019, 01:27:45 PM »

Offline tstorey_97

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Let's see....no where to put these picks. No cap/roster space for picks. No picks that are particularly valuable.  In the NBA, you can't use "volume" to move up in draft.

Ainge is  well, certainly not "Mr. late first round drafter of the decade"...not that many GM's are.

Find a team that has to have the guy at your position on draft night and trade the pick for another year.

Memphis next year should be good.

Trade all the picks for a star, but, the other team needs cap/roster room for three first round picks.

My guess is a combination of above....

Re: So all of a sudden we may be back to 4 picks?
« Reply #89 on: March 13, 2019, 01:34:15 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

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Let's see....no where to put these picks. No cap/roster space for picks. No picks that are particularly valuable.  In the NBA, you can't use "volume" to move up in draft.

Ainge is  well, certainly not "Mr. late first round drafter of the decade"...not that many GM's are.

Find a team that has to have the guy at your position on draft night and trade the pick for another year.

Memphis next year should be good.

Trade all the picks for a star, but, the other team needs cap/roster room for three first round picks.

My guess is a combination of above....
true, you can trade a pick for a future pick

Thats how we got the memphis pick

 

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