Sacramento pick currently has only 1.9% chance to move up to pick 2-4
If they drop to the 13th pick the odds are 3.7% pick 2-4
If they drop to 12th the odds are 5.7% 2-4
Drop to 11th is 7.4% 2-4
Drop to 10th is 10.9%
Remaining 16 games, 9 are on road, 8 are against playoff teams (which could be good or bad depending on if teams are resting players, or positioning for seeding)
A tough schedule for them to close out season. and sitting ahead of them in standings is Minny, Charlotte and Orlando who all or most likely pushing hard for a playoff position.
Minny is 2 games out of playoffs
Charlotte is only 1.5 games back
Orlando is only 1 game back
Only 5 games separate Sacramento from the 9th place Pelicans. and only 3.5 games separating Charlotte, Orlando, Minny and Sacramento so it is possible that Sacramento could end up dropping as many as 3 places by seasons end.
Should be a exciting finish as far as the picks go.
Tankathon has a nice resource – a page that gives you the strength of schedule remaining for each team. http://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength
For Sacramento’s position to move up to 11-13, the teams that are most likely to pass them are Minnesota, the Lakers, and Orlando. MN and the Lakers are three games back in the loss with tougher schedules than Sacto and we know the Lakers are tanking. Tbh, I’d also be surprised if MN thinks they have any shot at the playoffs.
Orlando has an easier schedule, and they might want to win because they are only two games out of the playoffs. But they are four games behind in the loss column with about 15 to go; net, Sacto is going to have to really fall apart or Orlando will have to really tear it up.
It’s true that at some point playoff teams may start resting their stars, but that’s hard to count on and of course the bad teams (Lakers, cough cough) are in tank mode.
Net I’d say 75% chance of pick 14, 20% pick 13, 5% better than 13.