Author Topic: Who are our 3 guys?  (Read 4511 times)

0 Members and 0 Guests are viewing this topic.

Who are our 3 guys?
« on: March 01, 2019, 12:34:02 AM »

Offline LarBrd33

  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21238
  • Tommy Points: 2016
I just went through the past 25 champions to look at their shot distribution in the playoffs and the vast majority (even the 2004 Pistons) had 3 guys averaging 10+ shots.   Quite a few only had 2 guys averaging 10+ shots.  Very very rarely, a team would have 4 guys averaging 10+ shots. 

2018 - 3 guys
2017 - 3 guys
2016 - 3 guys
2015 - 3 guys
2014 - 4 guys
2013 - 3 guys
2012 - 3 guys
2011 - 3 guys
2010 - 3 guys
2009 - 2 guys
2008 - 4 guys
2007 - 3 guys
2006 - 3 guys
2005 - 3 guys
2004 - 3 guys
2003 - 3 guys
2002 - 2 guys
2001 - 2 guys
2000 - 2 guys
1999 - 3 guys
1998 - 3 guys
1997 - 2 guys
1996 - 2 guys
1995 - 4 guys
1994 - 2 guys

Very often when it was 3 guys, you'd have 2 guys getting 15-20 shots and one guy barely cracking 10 shots.

...

Last season in the playoffs we had nearly 6 players taking 10+ shots:  Brown (14.7), Rozier (14), Tatum (13.7), Morris (11.7), Horford (10.7) and Smart (9.5).   This season, we're also trying to incorporate Kyrie and Hayward.  Despite having Hayward shoot 51%/44%/90% this month, there were 7 guys on the team who took more shots per game. 

This idea that we can have 8 players sharing the ball with one another and equally taking shots is cute, but there's no real precedent of that working.   The team needs to pick their 3 guys and ride them. 

Who are our 3 guys? 

Re: Who are our 3 guys?
« Reply #1 on: March 01, 2019, 01:33:28 AM »

Offline gouki88

  • NCE
  • Red Auerbach
  • *******************************
  • Posts: 31552
  • Tommy Points: 3142
  • 2019 & 2021 CS Historical Draft Champion
I would say it should be 3 of Kyrie, Tatum, Hayward and Brown.

Al doesn't need lots of shots to be effective, and everyone else is a tier (at least) below these guys.
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: Who are our 3 guys?
« Reply #2 on: March 01, 2019, 01:41:19 AM »

Offline CelticsElite

  • NCE
  • Danny Ainge
  • **********
  • Posts: 10774
  • Tommy Points: 789
1. Kyrie

2. Davis

3. Whoever is left of Tatum or brown (unless hayward returns to his all star form in which case it would clearly be him).  This 3rd slot is conditional based on these future events

Re: Who are our 3 guys?
« Reply #3 on: March 01, 2019, 01:54:09 AM »

Offline PhoSita

  • NCE
  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21835
  • Tommy Points: 2182
Terry Rozier, Marcus Morris, and nobody else matters.


That's what they think, anyway.

 ;D



Anyways, in the playoffs the real answer should be Kyrie - Tatum - Horford in that order.  Everybody else is just where the open shots are.   But who knows.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Who are our 3 guys?
« Reply #4 on: March 01, 2019, 02:29:14 AM »

Offline SparzWizard

  • Dennis Johnson
  • ******************
  • Posts: 18845
  • Tommy Points: 1119
This team's original Big 3 is supposed to be Kyrie, Horford, and Hayward.

But somehow, it's translating into Kyrie and/or Tatum, Brown, Rozier.


#FireJoe
#JTJB (Just Trade Jaylen Brown) 2022 - 2025
I am the Master of Panic.

Re: Who are our 3 guys?
« Reply #5 on: March 01, 2019, 02:34:07 AM »

Offline Somebody

  • Tiny Archibald
  • *******
  • Posts: 7819
  • Tommy Points: 562
  • STAND FIRM, SAY NO TO VIBE MEN
1. Kyrie
2. Tatum
3. Brown

If one of them has an off night they'll swap with Hayward/Horford.
Jaylen Brown for All-NBA

Re: Who are our 3 guys?
« Reply #6 on: March 01, 2019, 02:49:37 AM »

Offline Androslav

  • Jim Loscutoff
  • **
  • Posts: 2983
  • Tommy Points: 528
I just went through the past 25 champions to look at their shot distribution in the playoffs and the vast majority (even the 2004 Pistons) had 3 guys averaging 10+ shots.   Quite a few only had 2 guys averaging 10+ shots.  Very very rarely, a team would have 4 guys averaging 10+ shots. 

2018 - 3 guys
2017 - 3 guys
2016 - 3 guys
2015 - 3 guys
2014 - 4 guys
2013 - 3 guys
2012 - 3 guys
2011 - 3 guys
2010 - 3 guys
2009 - 2 guys
2008 - 4 guys
2007 - 3 guys
2006 - 3 guys
2005 - 3 guys
2004 - 3 guys
2003 - 3 guys
2002 - 2 guys
2001 - 2 guys
2000 - 2 guys

1999 - 3 guys
1998 - 3 guys
1997 - 2 guys
1996 - 2 guys
1995 - 4 guys
1994 - 2 guys

Very often when it was 3 guys, you'd have 2 guys getting 15-20 shots and one guy barely cracking 10 shots.

...

Last season in the playoffs we had nearly 6 players taking 10+ shots:  Brown (14.7), Rozier (14), Tatum (13.7), Morris (11.7), Horford (10.7) and Smart (9.5).   This season, we're also trying to incorporate Kyrie and Hayward.  Despite having Hayward shoot 51%/44%/90% this month, there were 7 guys on the team who took more shots per game. 

This idea that we can have 8 players sharing the ball with one another and equally taking shots is cute, but there's no real precedent of that working.   The team needs to pick their 3 guys and ride them. 

Who are our 3 guys?
2 guys = Lakers?
"The joy of the balling under the rims."

Re: Who are our 3 guys?
« Reply #7 on: March 01, 2019, 03:14:25 AM »

Offline ozgod

  • Dennis Johnson
  • ******************
  • Posts: 18747
  • Tommy Points: 1527
Probably the closest would be the 2014 Spurs which is the team that I most compare with ours in terms of having an ensemble cast instead of a Big 2/3. They had a 15 - 12 - 10 - 10 and the next one after that was 7.

Code: [Select]
Player G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% eFG% TRB AST PTS/G

Tony Parker 23 23 31.3 7.3 15 0.486 0.6 1.5 0.371 0.504 2 4.8 17.4
Tim Duncan 23 23 32.7 6.5 12.4 0.523 0 0.1 0 0.523 9.2 2 16.3
Kawhi Leonard 23 23 32 5.3 10.4 0.51 1.3 3.2 0.419 0.575 6.7 1.7 14.3
Manu Ginobili 23 0 25.5 4.5 10.3 0.439 1.8 4.6 0.39 0.525 3.3 4.1 14.3
Boris Diaw 23 3 26.3 3.5 7 0.5 0.8 2 0.4 0.556 4.8 3.4 9.2
Danny Green 23 23 23 3.4 6.9 0.491 2.1 4.4 0.475 0.642 3 0.9 9.3
Patty Mills 23 0 15.3 2.7 6.1 0.447 1.4 3.4 0.405 0.56 1.5 1.4 7.3
Tiago Splitter 23 18 22.4 2.7 4.3 0.61 0 0 0 0.61 6.1 2 7.5
Marco Belinelli 23 0 15.5 1.9 4.3 0.444 0.7 1.7 0.421 0.525 2.3 0.8 5.4
Cory Joseph 17 0 5.1 1 2.1 0.486 0 0.2 0 0.486 0.5 0.5 2.8
Austin Daye 1 0 6 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Aron Baynes 14 0 7.2 0.9 1.7 0.5 0 0.1 0 0.5 2.2 0 2.3
Matt Bonner 22 2 6.2 0.5 1 0.476 0.2 0.5 0.333 0.571 0.6 0.5 1.2
Jeff Ayres 17 0 3.8 0.4 0.8 0.462 0 0 0.462 1.1 0.3 1

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2014.html

I think our 3 should be Kyrie and Jayson with Gordon/Al alternating depending on the team and matchup. But it will probably be Kyrie/Jayson/Mook. I'm guessing Gordon will have the least shots as he doesn't jack up low percentage shots.
Any odd typos are because I suck at typing on an iPhone :D


Re: Who are our 3 guys?
« Reply #8 on: March 01, 2019, 03:29:59 AM »

Offline LarBrd33

  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21238
  • Tommy Points: 2016
Probably the closest would be the 2014 Spurs which is the team that I most compare with ours in terms of having an ensemble cast instead of a Big 2/3. They had a 15 - 12 - 10 - 10 and the next one after that was 7.

Code: [Select]
Player G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% eFG% TRB AST PTS/G

Tony Parker 23 23 31.3 7.3 15 0.486 0.6 1.5 0.371 0.504 2 4.8 17.4
Tim Duncan 23 23 32.7 6.5 12.4 0.523 0 0.1 0 0.523 9.2 2 16.3
Kawhi Leonard 23 23 32 5.3 10.4 0.51 1.3 3.2 0.419 0.575 6.7 1.7 14.3
Manu Ginobili 23 0 25.5 4.5 10.3 0.439 1.8 4.6 0.39 0.525 3.3 4.1 14.3
Boris Diaw 23 3 26.3 3.5 7 0.5 0.8 2 0.4 0.556 4.8 3.4 9.2
Danny Green 23 23 23 3.4 6.9 0.491 2.1 4.4 0.475 0.642 3 0.9 9.3
Patty Mills 23 0 15.3 2.7 6.1 0.447 1.4 3.4 0.405 0.56 1.5 1.4 7.3
Tiago Splitter 23 18 22.4 2.7 4.3 0.61 0 0 0 0.61 6.1 2 7.5
Marco Belinelli 23 0 15.5 1.9 4.3 0.444 0.7 1.7 0.421 0.525 2.3 0.8 5.4
Cory Joseph 17 0 5.1 1 2.1 0.486 0 0.2 0 0.486 0.5 0.5 2.8
Austin Daye 1 0 6 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Aron Baynes 14 0 7.2 0.9 1.7 0.5 0 0.1 0 0.5 2.2 0 2.3
Matt Bonner 22 2 6.2 0.5 1 0.476 0.2 0.5 0.333 0.571 0.6 0.5 1.2
Jeff Ayres 17 0 3.8 0.4 0.8 0.462 0 0 0.462 1.1 0.3 1

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2014.html

I think our 3 should be Kyrie and Jayson with Gordon/Al alternating depending on the team and matchup. But it will probably be Kyrie/Jayson/Mook. I'm guessing Gordon will have the least shots as he doesn't jack up low percentage shots.
Someone on reddit said the same thing.  Was that you? 

Anyways... there's no way Kyrie is getting just 15 shots... so you follow that Spurs framework, you're gonna have to redistribute at least 5 shots to Kyrie which eliminates one of those guys and you end up with 20, 12, 10...

This is a tough thing.  The "too many mouths" is a key reason this team has struggled this season. 

Re: Who are our 3 guys?
« Reply #9 on: March 01, 2019, 05:34:54 AM »

Offline LilRip

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6987
  • Tommy Points: 411
Hmm it’s gotta be Kyrie, Tatum and Brown.

Or maybe Horford? Or Hayward?

It’ll probably be Morris though. And when Irving sits out a game, Rozier will jump all the way up that list.

This team’s a mess.
- LilRip

Re: Who are our 3 guys?
« Reply #10 on: March 01, 2019, 06:00:33 AM »

Offline Csfan1984

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8880
  • Tommy Points: 290
I believe BS' system wants it to be multiple guys (six to eight) with 10 to 14 shots with no one over 17. The goal being about efficiency and not forcing shots. Unfortunately we have some very poor shooters and even worst shot selection from this crew. There is also the need to keep our main star happy.

I also think this is a situation that makes the vets say guys are being selfish. Because they are traditional in their belief in going through the main guys on offense and the role players get scraps. While the young guys want to be a part of the scoring and make plays.


There is middle ground. It's feeding the hot hand no matter who it is and keeping guys moving by limiting ISO plays.

Re: Who are our 3 guys?
« Reply #11 on: March 01, 2019, 06:03:49 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

  • NCE
  • Johnny Most
  • ********************
  • Posts: 20090
  • Tommy Points: 1331
I think will have one guy Kyrie.

Tatum, Horford are are next tier, but Tatum has struggled at times and age sometimes plagues Al.


Re: Who are our 3 guys?
« Reply #12 on: March 01, 2019, 06:12:53 AM »

Online Roy H.

  • Forums Manager
  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 62817
  • Tommy Points: -25470
  • Bo Knows: Joe Don't Know Diddley
Davis, Kyrie, Hayward


I'M THE SILVERBACK GORILLA IN THIS MOTHER——— AND DON'T NONE OF YA'LL EVER FORGET IT!@ 34 minutes

Re: Who are our 3 guys?
« Reply #13 on: March 01, 2019, 06:29:31 AM »

Offline gouki88

  • NCE
  • Red Auerbach
  • *******************************
  • Posts: 31552
  • Tommy Points: 3142
  • 2019 & 2021 CS Historical Draft Champion
Davis, Kyrie, Hayward
That's a banner raising trio
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: Who are our 3 guys?
« Reply #14 on: March 01, 2019, 07:31:49 AM »

Online Who

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 52857
  • Tommy Points: 2569
I disagree with the premise. Teams are built differently and should play to their strengths.

This Celtics team was built to have 5 main scorers - Kyrie, Hayward, Horford, Tatum and Jaylen. Kyrie and Hayward the two main scorers with the other 3 in supporting scorer modes.

Hayward has failed to fill that role due to his injury & recovery. That combined with the chemistry issues in the starting lineup has led to Morris and Smart having larger roles than expected.

Morris should have been a 20-24mpg backup. Instead Morris is playing 28mpg and dude is scorer. He touches it, it's going up. That is the way he is wired. Smart has done a great job of reducing his shot attempts this season to give others room they need to impact the game with his scoring.

Rozier should not be playing 23mpg and he should not be not taking 8.5 FGAs per game. There simply isn't enough court time / playing opportunities for Rozier to make full use of his talent. Kyrie is the lead guard. Then comes Smart. Then Boston has 3 wings in Tatum, Jaylen and Hayward. Plus some minutes for Morris at forward and some for Horford too in bigger lineups. There isn't enough minutes left over for Rozier to be a 20+mpg player on this team. It makes Boston too small in the backcourt and causes more problems than it fixes. Stevens needs to limit Rozier's court time and make him (or Wannamaker) a 10-12mpg player instead. If Rozier can control himself then he is obvious choice for that role. If he cannot, which he hasn't been able to do with any regularity or consistency this  year and is likely to find it even more difficult to do so in an even smaller role, then Stevens needs to sit Rozier's ass on the bench.

That leaves Boston with 4 go-to scorers in Kyrie, Horford, Tatum and Jaylen. Smart and Hayward as supporting 7-8 FGAs role players. Preferably Morris in this role as well but he might get up there (10 FGAs per game if his minutes stay high) too due to Hayward's inability to break through this season (thus far).

I see Kyrie as a 15 FGAs a game type player. He can obviously do more individually but for the balance of the team I prefer to see him be more judicious in his shot attempts in order to create better team harmony. Keep others involved in offense so that they engage on defense. Then Horford, Tatum and Jaylen all in that 11-14 FGAs area (high low depending on who has it going on that night).

If Hayward had of been healthy, I view him as a 13-14 FGAs per game player. Again, he can do more but would need to be more judicious on this team due to the abundance of scorers. More of a 19-20ppg than a 22-24ppg scorer. With Tatum, Jaylen and Horford all taking a step back to a 10-12 FGAs players.

Tatum is the biggest issue in terms of the non-Kyrie scorers. He needs to stop trying to be the 2nd guy and be more of a team player. More like he was last year. His game isn't ready to shoulder that nightly load of being the #2 option. He is too reliant on medium efficiency shots and does not create at all for his teammates. It doesn't make sense for him to overdo it on a team with so much scoring support. Tatum needs to share the ball more and instead invest that extra energy in his defense & rebounding.