Standing and team checkin update

[celticsclay]

Alright, so it seems like there is a lot of melting down on this board right now. Wanted to chime in with a few points in the larger scheme, cause I have been a bit perplexed by it.

We have won 6 of our last 7 games with a close loss to the Warriors
We have beaten Toronto 2 of the 3 games we have played them
We split with the Bucks
We are 2-0 against the 76ers
We have the second best point differential in the east behind the Bucks
We are currently given the second best odds to win the title (tied with Raptors)
We are 1.5 games out of the 3rd seed. The pacers have lost oladipo for the season and the 76ers play Golden, State, Denver and us in their next 6 games.
No player on our team has requested a trade

Is it really that bad?

[Rondo9]

They're actually 1-1 against the Bucks I believe.

[RJ87]

They're actually 1-1 against the Bucks I believe.

I think he meant "2-0" against the Sixers

[manl_lui]

TP for the optimism cuz you deserve it!

[mef730]

First, also TP for the optimism.

So why are people melting down? Because we can't do it consistently. We've beaten a lot of good teams, but also had a lot of bad losses (and yes, I'm bitter about paying to see them lose to the Knicks at home). We've managed to lose to Orlando, Charlotte, the Knicks, Phoenix, etc.

Second, our biggest wins have been at home. We've beaten Philly twice at home. We beat Toronto once at home. We're 1-1 against Milwaukee at home.

Finally, We can't do it consistently. We've been burned enough times to be awfully cautious. I've grouped the following dates to encompass the "streaks," both good and bad.

10/25-11/11: Won four in a row, and then lost four of the following five

Nov 14-Dec 14: Won 2, lost 3, won 9 of the following 10 (including a huge win against Toronto), only to follow with three straight losses (which included a loss at home against Phoenix).

Then won seven of nine, lost three straight on the road and have now won six of the last seven.

I think it's fair to say that we went into the season with our expectations too high. In any other year, we'd be feeling pretty good.

I do think that the second half will be better than the first, but recent history has told me not to be overly confident.

Mike

[manl_lui]

First, also TP for the optimism.

So why are people melting down? Because we can't do it consistently. We've beaten a lot of good teams, but also had a lot of bad losses (and yes, I'm bitter about paying to see them lose to the Knicks at home). We've managed to lose to Orlando, Charlotte, the Knicks, Phoenix, etc.

Second, our biggest wins have been at home. We've beaten Philly twice at home. We beat Toronto once at home. We're 1-1 against Milwaukee at home.

Finally, We can't do it consistently. We've been burned enough times to be awfully cautious. I've grouped the following dates to encompass the "streaks," both good and bad.

10/25-11/11: Won four in a row, and then lost four of the following five

Nov 14-Dec 14: Won 2, lost 3, won 9 of the following 10 (including a huge win against Toronto), only to follow with three straight losses (which included a loss at home against Phoenix).

Then won seven of nine, lost three straight on the road and have now won six of the last seven.

I think it's fair to say that we went into the season with our expectations too high. In any other year, we'd be feeling pretty good.

I do think that the second half will be better than the first, but recent history has told me not to be overly confident.

Mike

i think a lot of the meltdown recently started with losing to gsw for 4 points with Gordon only scoring 2 points in 2 games, with rumors of Kyrie wanted to join LeBron again, add that with Anthony Davis who now wants out so there's panic that Kyrie wants to bolt to join a new big 3 in LA

[celticsclay]

They're actually 1-1 against the Bucks I believe.

I think he meant "2-0" against the Sixers

Yea I fixed that! Thanks guys

[PhoSita]

For what it's worth Basketball-Reference has us ending up with 51 wins as the 3rd seed, slated to take on the Nets in the 1st round.

I'd be OK with that.  We'd have a tough date with the Raps in the 2nd round.

[Big333223]

TP for the positive check in.

The beginning of the season was rough and since then, they've been good. All things considered, we should all be happy to be fans of this team. They're in good shape the wind up with the 3rd seed and make a Finals run and then we'll have another fun (stressful?) summer after that.

[RodyTur10]

For what it's worth Basketball-Reference has us ending up with 51 wins as the 3rd seed, slated to take on the Nets in the 1st round.

I'd be OK with that.  We'd have a tough date with the Raps in the 2nd round.

It's the best available outcome I think. I don't believe we're capable of overtaking both the Raptors and the Bucks. As long as we play the Bucks last.

[celticsclay]

For what it's worth Basketball-Reference has us ending up with 51 wins as the 3rd seed, slated to take on the Nets in the 1st round.

I'd be OK with that.  We'd have a tough date with the Raps in the 2nd round.

Why 100% confident it would not be the bucks? Bucks are actually in first right now. Also seems likely they give Leonard continued rest as the season goes on to protect him.

[apc]

I would like Pacers in the first round 4-5.
I just don't see Sixers dropping enough games to drop to 4.

[celticsclay]

I would like Pacers in the first round 4-5.
I just don't see Sixers dropping enough games to drop to 4.

I think we are going to end up at 3. We are crushing Philly in most advanced metrics and they are a very thin team. When they rest Embid (like this past week) they are a very vulnerable to losses. Also worth mentioning
that i didn't have in my regular post, we are 21-9 since that 10-10 start. I believe that is a 57-58 win pace and about what many people expected for this team.

[jpotter33]

First, also TP for the optimism.

So why are people melting down? Because we can't do it consistently. We've beaten a lot of good teams, but also had a lot of bad losses (and yes, I'm bitter about paying to see them lose to the Knicks at home). We've managed to lose to Orlando, Charlotte, the Knicks, Phoenix, etc.

Second, our biggest wins have been at home. We've beaten Philly twice at home. We beat Toronto once at home. We're 1-1 against Milwaukee at home.

Finally, We can't do it consistently. We've been burned enough times to be awfully cautious. I've grouped the following dates to encompass the "streaks," both good and bad.

10/25-11/11: Won four in a row, and then lost four of the following five

Nov 14-Dec 14: Won 2, lost 3, won 9 of the following 10 (including a huge win against Toronto), only to follow with three straight losses (which included a loss at home against Phoenix).

Then won seven of nine, lost three straight on the road and have now won six of the last seven.

I think it's fair to say that we went into the season with our expectations too high. In any other year, we'd be feeling pretty good.

I do think that the second half will be better than the first, but recent history has told me not to be overly confident.

Mike

I think people underestimate the injuries we had and their effect on the overall play of the team. When you have a team struggling to develop chemistry after adding new players, having several significant injuries only exacerbates the problem. We've been much better since our bigs, primarily Horford and Baynes, have been back.

I agree that with continued health we'll be better in the second half of the season, and with a game against Toronto left and two games apiece left against Philly and Indy, I think it's very reasonable that we can get to at least the two seed before the end of the season, as we're only four losses behind Toronto for the two seed, all while leading the season series.

[PhoSita]

For what it's worth Basketball-Reference has us ending up with 51 wins as the 3rd seed, slated to take on the Nets in the 1st round.

I'd be OK with that.  We'd have a tough date with the Raps in the 2nd round.

Why 100% confident it would not be the bucks? Bucks are actually in first right now. Also seems likely they give Leonard continued rest as the season goes on to protect him.

I was just speaking to what BRef has in their projection.