Disagree.
It was reported all around that the only teams Leonard was willing to extend with were NYK, LAC and LAL, but NOT Boston. Could that have changed once he came here and played? Sure.
But trust me. If Ainge traded Brown + more for Leonard and he bolted after a year, possibly to the Lakers, then this blog would have KILLED him.
Toronto took the gamble because honestly they were stuck and probably knew DeRozan + Lowry just wasn’t going to get it done. Lowry + Leonard could. MIL probably could have done the same with a package involving Middleton and others to form a Giannis + Leonard duo.
I do think Ainge is still keeping his chips on the table to try for a Davis deal in the next year to 1.5 years.
Does Boston win the title this year with Leonard? If so, then even if Leonard leaves (which I think is unlikely if Boston wins the title), then Ainge would have been fine because he brought the team a title, something that right now looks pretty far away given how the team has actually looked this year. Still time to get the kinks out, but Boston with Leonard is absolutely a better team than they are now, and Toronto is no where near as good (thus eliminating a real challenger from the mix). Boston is a team of titles, if Boston won the title almost any trade would be worth it, especially it was something like Brown, Smart, 1st or Brown, Morris, Rozier, 1st.
No, even with Leonard we can't beat GSW, esp since we have little depth after that trade.
Obviously a healthy Golden State is probably not losing, but can you really count on Golden State being healthy. Curry has been banged up a lot this year. Green has missed a bunch of time (and hasn't really missed any time ever). Durant has missed a lot of games in the past. Thompson has never been hurt, at some point you expect him to get banged up a bit. Cousins still hasn't played. The Warriors also don't have much depth at all. And as has been pointed out a lot on this board the Celtics have had a fair amount of success against the Warriors and that is without someone like Leonard, who is a legitimately in the discussion with Durant and Curry as that level of player.
If Boston would have made that trade over the summer it probably would have been something like Morris, Brown, Smart sign and trade, and a 1st (and if it took the Sacto pick so be it). Let's say Smart's contract was big enough to allow Danny Green to come back to Boston (maybe with some filler like Bird and Yabu).
So post-trade Boston would have been
PG - Irving, Rozier, Wanamaker
SG - Hayward, Green
SF - Leonard, Hayward
PF - Tatum, Theis, Semi
C - Horford, Baynes, Williams
The trade was early enough in the summer that Boston could have still used the MLE (or taxpayer MLE) to add some veteran depth, but even without adding any depth that team is by far the best team in the East and frankly by far the 2nd best team in basketball. And that team is closer to the Warriors than any other team is to it.
Couple that with how young it is and how I would expect Leonard to fit and get along with everyone, I would see no reason why he wouldn't try to build a dynasty in Boston. Sure he might leave, but Paul George was going to leave Oklahoma City high and dry also. How'd that work out again? Brown, some role players, some salary filler, and an unknown future draft pick were worth taking a shot on Leonard. I've consistently maintained that position as well, so it isn't some hindsight thing either. Now maybe that type of offer would have been able to be topped by Toronto (I don't think DeRozan, Poeltl, and a late 1st tops it), but it would have at least forced Toronto to up its offer. Maybe that type of offer gets LA in the game as well and forces them to expend their assets. Who knows what happens, but not including Brown was a mistake in my mind. You can't just pass up a chance at getting a gold medal superstar over a 2nd year player who may or may not ever reach his ceiling, especially one whose ceiling is probably only a silver medal superstar.