Author Topic: When IS the right time to panic?  (Read 1909 times)

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When IS the right time to panic?
« on: November 21, 2018, 03:35:42 PM »

Offline mef730

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So far, we've had a lot of threads about just how bad the start of the season has been, with just as many threads mocking those threads and telling us to just let the team develop a rhythm. It's the internet so, of course, there's no in-between.

Here's my question: At what point does it become socially acceptable to panic? Do we have an official time where we fear that we won't be able to reverse the trends of Jaylen Brown shooting like Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum shooting like Kobe, Terry Rozier shooting his mouth off about playing time, etc?

It would be very helpful to me, and I'm sure many others, if we had a defined time frame in which simple nervousness turns to sheer, blind hysteria?

Personally, I'm looking at it the same way that I look at games: by quarters. The first quarter is figuring out who belongs where and how the lineup will look. We should be doing better by now, but I'm okay with a slow start. We are, however, approaching the second quarter, where we should have the kinks worked out and be accelerating toward dominance (although I thought we'd be further up the curve by now). Third and fourth quarters should be steady state, top-2 team.

Personally, I'm going to start panicking around Christmas, game 33, with a full state of terror by the new year (game 37). And it's a good thing that I didn't pick Chanukah, since I just realized that it it's early this year and starts in a little over a week. Sorry, kids, your presents will be a little late this year...

Mike
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Re: When IS the right time to panic?
« Reply #1 on: November 21, 2018, 04:04:35 PM »

Online PhoSita

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Depends on your criteria for what constitutes a panic-worthy result, I suppose.

If you would panic if you felt that there was enough evidence to conclude that the team can't realistically compete for the title this year (and perhaps not even the Finals), that's one thing.

If you would panic if you felt that it had become clear the Celts were a solid cut below 2-3 other teams in the East, and that getting past the 2nd round in the playoffs would be a major challenge, that's another thing.


Personally I'm not sure where I land.  I think that the Warriors are almost certainly winning the title this year.  That said, I will be disappointed if the Celts once again fail to make the Finals.  I entered this year believing that the Celts were the favorite to win the East and that was my expectation. 

Not even getting back to the ECF would be borderline catastrophic, in my mind.  I think it would probably prompt Ainge to make some sweeping changes again not unlike what we saw after the 2016 playoffs.  I think it would also fundamentally alter the way we talk about Brad Stevens, as well (i.e. he'd be seen as more like just another modern-style coach instead of one of the best).


As long as the Celts continue to have a top defense (and I mean top 1-3), I will resist the temptation to panic completely.  You can win multiple playoff series simply by being great on one side of the ball.

However, if the Celts' offense is still floundering at the bottom of the league by the time we're getting to the 30 or 40 game mark, my belief that this team is going to make it back to the ECF will take a serious hit.  The top of the East doesn't feature LeBron anymore, but it does feature several teams that are more well rounded than that Cavs squad.  And the Celts so far this year have somehow managed to look worse than last year's team that made a perhaps unlikely run to within a few minutes of beating LeBron.


If by the 30-40 game mark the defense has fallen back to maybe the 5-10 range and the offense is still solidly bottom third of the league, I might be on the verge of completely losing faith.  If you're dog crap on one side of the ball and just pretty good on the other side, you're probably just a middle of the road playoff team.

I would be very disappointed if that turned out to the be the story this year.  I'm already bummed out, more than I want to acknowledge, by how the team has struggled when so many (seemingly smart) people, not all of them Celts homers, were talking about this team maybe winning 65+ games.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2018, 04:10:48 PM by PhoSita »
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Re: When IS the right time to panic?
« Reply #2 on: November 21, 2018, 04:05:07 PM »

Offline apc

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So far, we've had a lot of threads about just how bad the start of the season has been, with just as many threads mocking those threads and telling us to just let the team develop a rhythm. It's the internet so, of course, there's no in-between.

Here's my question: At what point does it become socially acceptable to panic? Do we have an official time where we fear that we won't be able to reverse the trends of Jaylen Brown shooting like Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum shooting like Kobe, Terry Rozier shooting his mouth off about playing time, etc?

It would be very helpful to me, and I'm sure many others, if we had a defined time frame in which simple nervousness turns to sheer, blind hysteria?

Personally, I'm looking at it the same way that I look at games: by quarters. The first quarter is figuring out who belongs where and how the lineup will look. We should be doing better by now, but I'm okay with a slow start. We are, however, approaching the second quarter, where we should have the kinks worked out and be accelerating toward dominance (although I thought we'd be further up the curve by now). Third and fourth quarters should be steady state, top-2 team.

Personally, I'm going to start panicking around Christmas, game 33, with a full state of terror by the new year (game 37). And it's a good thing that I didn't pick Chanukah, since I just realized that it it's early this year and starts in a little over a week. Sorry, kids, your presents will be a little late this year...

Mike
Good post TP

Re: When IS the right time to panic?
« Reply #3 on: November 21, 2018, 04:30:57 PM »

Offline jambr380

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Quote
So far, we've had a lot of threads about just how bad the start of the season has been, with just as many threads mocking those threads and telling us to just let the team develop a rhythm.

TP for this. If you are a true Celtics fan, you should be concerned. All of us follow the team very closely and they haven't performed anywhere near expectations.

That is not to say you should panic, but blind assuredness in assuming Hayward will get back to his old form or Rozier will settle into his new/old role are far from a certainty.

To be fair, I think we all have to give it a little more time. After the Toronto game was when the team was really supposed to turn it on and they obviously haven't. If they continue to struggle against sub-par teams (meaning they go .500 or less in this next stretch), then there will be reason to panic...and DA will likely be manning the phone at that point.

Re: When IS the right time to panic?
« Reply #4 on: November 21, 2018, 05:03:04 PM »

Online PhoSita

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If they continue to struggle against sub-par teams (meaning they go .500 or less in this next stretch), then there will be reason to panic...and DA will likely be manning the phone at that point.

This is a really good point.

The upcoming schedule is pretty weak.  The Celts have 15 games to go before Christmas. 

Most of that stretch is Hawks, Knicks, Bulls, Suns, Mavs.  Couple games against the Pels, a road game against the Wolves, and home for Milwaukee and Charlotte right before Christmas day.


I would say if the Celts do much worse than 10-5 over that stretch, that would be cause for alarm.

So, let's say 20 wins by Christmas day.  If the Celts are well short of that mark, I would be pretty worried, because it would mean they've not managed to take advantage of the easier opponents on their upcoming schedule.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: When IS the right time to panic?
« Reply #5 on: November 21, 2018, 05:30:04 PM »

Offline rocknrollforyoursoul

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Based on my observations of this site's Positivity Police, the only time to panic is when the Celtics are on the verge of losing a playoff elimination game.
"There are two kinds of people: those who say to God, 'Thy will be done,' and those to whom God says, 'All right, then, have it your way.'"

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Re: When IS the right time to panic?
« Reply #6 on: November 21, 2018, 05:32:16 PM »

Offline hodgy03038

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If they lose tonight or if they have to make a miraculous comeback in order to beat a lottery team at home - then it's time to panic tonight. If they take care of business and there is NO doubt then we can hold off a little longer before jumping.


Hey Jaylen. I bet 519 Tommy Points on you guys and lost

Re: When IS the right time to panic?
« Reply #7 on: November 21, 2018, 05:37:02 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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good news issszzzzzz


maybe i get good seats at the garden   :laugh:

Re: When IS the right time to panic?
« Reply #8 on: November 21, 2018, 05:45:23 PM »

Online CelticSooner

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When the team starts to panic. So far that hasn’t been the case though. Sounds like they need to adjust to being the hunted instead of the hunters. Young guys are really pressing.

Re: When IS the right time to panic?
« Reply #9 on: November 21, 2018, 05:49:41 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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Good news is Danny is at the helm

we know he WILL trade anybody any time to right the ship or improve the club

Nobody is safe

Maybe not even CBS

Re: When IS the right time to panic?
« Reply #10 on: November 21, 2018, 07:11:08 PM »

Online Celtics4ever

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The answer is never panic, it kills  logical thought processes and makes for dumb decision making.

Re: When IS the right time to panic?
« Reply #11 on: November 21, 2018, 07:13:30 PM »

Offline apc

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If they lose tonight or if they have to make a miraculous comeback in order to beat a lottery team at home - then it's time to panic tonight. If they take care of business and there is NO doubt then we can hold off a little longer before jumping.
I don’t see a game thread ... time to panic!  ;D

Re: When IS the right time to panic?
« Reply #12 on: November 21, 2018, 08:17:02 PM »

Offline bopna

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Getting crushed by the freaking knicks at home...

The whole team is having a yips.
Cant buy a basket on offense...

Time to press the NUCLEAR BUTTON.

Re: When IS the right time to panic?
« Reply #13 on: November 21, 2018, 08:25:47 PM »

Offline apc

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I can only speak to myself , I am panicking.

Re: When IS the right time to panic?
« Reply #14 on: November 21, 2018, 08:30:20 PM »

Online SparzWizard

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Now.

 

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