« Reply #43 on: November 20, 2018, 06:53:44 PM »
Make no mistake - a healthy Beal is better than a healthy Hayward. I think (hope im wrong) Hayward will join the ranks of guys like Jamal Magloire and Tom Gugliotta in a few years as a guy people say - "he made an all star team once?!" A lot of Celtics are disillusioned about the type of player Hayward was even before we got him - a career 15/4 guy who isn't really elite at anything on the court.
I'm not going to argue over whether healthy Beal is better than healthy Hayward, but I think you're severely underrating Hayward here.
Last healthy season for Hayward:
21.9 pts, 5.4 reb, 3.5 ast, 1.0 stl
53.6% EFG ... 39.8% 3P (5.1 attempts) ... 84.4% FT on 5.9 attempts
.199 WS per game, 10.4 WS total
That wasn't a total fluke season, either. Hayward was really, really good for three straight years before signing with Boston and getting hurt.
Hayward also played 72, 66, 72, 77, 76, 80, 73 games to start his career before missing all of last season (except for a few minutes). Availability is a valuable trait, as well.
Yeah, that’s also in addition to improving every single season (bar this one, for obvious reasons), and having almost a 250 game stretch (including playoffs, where he lifted his game further as the focal piece) of averaging 20/5/4.
To say he’s a career 15/4 guy with no elite skill is pretty hilarious
I think I land somewhere in the middle with Hayward. I was excited to sign him but while 20/5/4 are good numbers, they're not superstar numbers. They're certainly not Best Player On A Champion numbers. And when you look at the #3 guy on some recent champions (Klay Thompson, Kevin Love, Chris Bosh, Lamar Odom, Ray Allen) and take into account he was doing that as the #1 option on a mediocre team, they might not even be 2nd Best Player On A Champion numbers.
I think you gotta take into account the snails pace with which Utah played with Hayward.
Per100 possessions he averaged 30.5/7.7/5.7. Compare that to All-Star PG13, who hovers around 32/9/5, or All-Star Jimmy Butler (29/7.5/6/2.5) and I think you have a better insight into Haywards game.
I don't necessarily like manipulating the numbers that way. It assumes that changing Hayward's pace wouldn't have changed any other aspect of his game. Would he have shot as well if he were playing faster? Would his decisions have been as good? There's no way to know.
I'd rather look at what he actually produced and what he actually produced, puts him more in line with #3 guys on championship teams and nowhere near the likes of Durant, Curry, Lebron, Dirk, etc.
I don't think it's manipulating the numbers. It's just the most suitable way to account for pace, because of the considerably lesser amount of possessions Hayward got.
They don't really put him in line of those superstars either. I mean, LeBron has had multiple per100 possession seasons of 40/10/10
I mean, you're literally taking the raw numbers and manipulating them to account for pace.
I just don't like accounting for pace when we're not accounting for anything else, like how a slower or faster pace affects someone's decision making or playing style, etc.

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