Author Topic: In Praise of Kyrie Irving  (Read 5145 times)

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In Praise of Kyrie Irving
« on: November 09, 2018, 10:13:00 AM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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Over the last 5 games, he is averaging 29.4 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 5.2 apg, 1.6 spg, 1 bpg, with only 2.4 topg. He is doing this on 56/53/95 shooting splits.

He's made great defensive plays and timely shots. He is a special player.
Most talent in the league. We don't want or need AD.

Re: In Praise of Kyrie Irving
« Reply #1 on: November 09, 2018, 10:26:17 AM »

Offline Donoghus

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He saved the Celtics butts last night.  That's for sure.

When he's on, he is as fun as their is to watch.


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Re: In Praise of Kyrie Irving
« Reply #2 on: November 09, 2018, 10:47:48 AM »

Offline apc

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Sad but true.
We need Kyrie at his best to win.

Re: In Praise of Kyrie Irving
« Reply #3 on: November 09, 2018, 11:00:37 AM »

Offline tonydelk

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Over the last 5 games, he is averaging 29.4 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 5.2 apg, 1.6 spg, 1 bpg, with only 2.4 topg. He is doing this on 56/53/95 shooting splits.

He's made great defensive plays and timely shots. He is a special player.

The Celtics should trade him and Brad Stevens while their value is high.  Maybe to Phoenix for Ayton.  :)

Re: In Praise of Kyrie Irving
« Reply #4 on: November 09, 2018, 11:31:19 AM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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He's made great defensive plays and timely shots. He is a special player.

We focus on the made shots, and not without good reason, but he had a great block on Booker down the stretch (I think in OT) too that finally got the Suns to start looking elsewhere for offense.

Re: In Praise of Kyrie Irving
« Reply #5 on: November 09, 2018, 11:43:21 AM »

Offline ozgod

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He's made great defensive plays and timely shots. He is a special player.

We focus on the made shots, and not without good reason, but he had a great block on Booker down the stretch (I think in OT) too that finally got the Suns to start looking elsewhere for offense.

I think that as great as he was scoring it was on the defensive end, with that block on Booker and a couple of steals in the 4th and overtime that impressed me the most. Because it's not something he's really recognized for, it's good to see him working hard from that end.
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Re: In Praise of Kyrie Irving
« Reply #6 on: November 09, 2018, 11:49:58 AM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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He's made great defensive plays and timely shots. He is a special player.

We focus on the made shots, and not without good reason, but he had a great block on Booker down the stretch (I think in OT) too that finally got the Suns to start looking elsewhere for offense.

I think that as great as he was scoring it was on the defensive end, with that block on Booker and a couple of steals in the 4th and overtime that impressed me the most. Because it's not something he's really recognized for, it's good to see him working hard from that end.

Yeah that key strip on Booker too!  I've gotta rewatch the last few minutes of regulation and OT. He really clamped down. Arguably our best defender in crunch time as well as the best offensive player.

Re: In Praise of Kyrie Irving
« Reply #7 on: November 09, 2018, 12:07:28 PM »

Online Moranis

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He was also -12 until the last 4 minutes of the game last night.  He can take over in short bursts, but he also gives up a lot of points on the other end.  He is just a bigger version of Thomas. 

Re: In Praise of Kyrie Irving
« Reply #8 on: November 09, 2018, 12:10:27 PM »

Offline Monkhouse

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He was also -12 until the last 4 minutes of the game last night.  He can take over in short bursts, but he also gives up a lot of points on the other end.  He is just a bigger version of Thomas.

 >:(

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Re: In Praise of Kyrie Irving
« Reply #9 on: November 09, 2018, 12:27:21 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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He was also -12 until the last 4 minutes of the game last night.  He can take over in short bursts, but he also gives up a lot of points on the other end.  He is just a bigger version of Thomas.

In the same way Durant is a bigger version of Kris Middleton, or Draymond Green is a bigger version of Justice Winslow, or Anthony Davis is a bigger version of Jerami Grant, or Lebron James is a bigger version of Evan Turner.
Most talent in the league. We don't want or need AD.

Re: In Praise of Kyrie Irving
« Reply #10 on: November 09, 2018, 12:38:07 PM »

Offline tarheelsxxiii

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It's an n = 11, but let's unpack it anyway.

His points per contest are not predictive of wins; in fact, there's an inverse relationship (r = -0.22, p = .52) that begins to trend towards significance when you pare down the sample to the first ten games (r = -0.44, p = .20). This may seem like a dirty trick, but it also suggests that the team has played better when he scores less (plus the Suns stink, Booker went off, and Kyrie otherwise goes unpunished for Murray's 48)...

And that's what his stats show more broadly. In these first 11 games:

in wins: 20 pts, 16 FGA (FG%=42; 3FG%=40), 4.6 reb, 5.7 asst
in losses:  23 pts, 17 FGA (FG%=57; 3FG%=46), 5.8 reb, 4.8 asst

In wins, he shoots/scores/rebounds less, actually shoots significantly worse too(!), but averages 1 more assist; in losses, he shoots/scores/rebounds more, but passes less. 

Worse, he shows a generally similar trend across the 17-18 season:

in wins (31 mpg): 23.9 pts, 17.4 FGA (FG%=50; 3FG%=41), 4 reb, 5.3 ast
in losses (34 mpg): 25.5 pts, 19.6 FGA (FG%=47; 3FG%=40), 3.2 reb, 4.7 ast

I think most of us know that he's a talented but high-usage scorer, does little more to positively impact the game, and is a negative on defense. These numbers paint an ugly picture though, and I wonder how his peers compare (e.g. Lillard, Curry). I hope similarly, or that he figures this out by May/June.

Although if you believe he's committed to helping the Celtics win, there's some reason to be hopeful -- we fare better when he shoots less and distributes more. 
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Re: In Praise of Kyrie Irving
« Reply #11 on: November 09, 2018, 12:42:10 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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He was also -12 until the last 4 minutes of the game last night.  He can take over in short bursts, but he also gives up a lot of points on the other end.  He is just a bigger version of Thomas.

In the same way Durant is a bigger version of Kris Middleton, or Draymond Green is a bigger version of Justice Winslow, or Anthony Davis is a bigger version of Jerami Grant, or Lebron James is a bigger version of Evan Turner.

lol outstanding.

Re: In Praise of Kyrie Irving
« Reply #12 on: November 09, 2018, 12:46:18 PM »

Online Roy H.

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He was also -12 until the last 4 minutes of the game last night.  He can take over in short bursts, but he also gives up a lot of points on the other end.  He is just a bigger version of Thomas.

If IT was 6'3", he would have been a Harden-esque player.  There's no shame in being compared to IT.


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Re: In Praise of Kyrie Irving
« Reply #13 on: November 09, 2018, 12:53:03 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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It's an n = 11, but let's unpack it anyway.

His points per contest are not predictive of wins; in fact, there's an inverse relationship (r = -0.22, p = .52) that begins to trend towards significance when you pare down the sample to the first ten games (r = -0.44, p = .20). This may seem like a dirty trick, but it also suggests that the team has played better when he scores less (plus the Suns stink, Booker went off, and Kyrie otherwise goes unpunished for Murray's 48)...

And that's what his stats show more broadly. In these first 11 games:

in wins: 20 pts, 16 FGA (FG%=42; 3FG%=40), 4.6 reb, 5.7 asst
in losses:  23 pts, 17 FGA (FG%=57; 3FG%=46), 5.8 reb, 4.8 asst

In wins, he shoots/scores/rebounds less, actually shoots significantly worse too(!), but averages 1 more assist; in losses, he shoots/scores/rebounds more, but passes less. 

Worse, he shows a generally similar trend across the 17-18 season:

in wins (31 mpg): 23.9 pts, 17.4 FGA (FG%=50; 3FG%=41), 4 reb, 5.3 ast
in losses (34 mpg): 25.5 pts, 19.6 FGA (FG%=47; 3FG%=40), 3.2 reb, 4.7 ast

I think most of us know that he's a talented but high-usage scorer, does little more to positively impact the game, and is a negative on defense. These numbers paint an ugly picture though, and I wonder how his peers compare (e.g. Lillard, Curry). I hope similarly, or that he figures this out by May/June.

Although if you believe he's committed to helping the Celtics win, there's some reason to be hopeful -- we fare better when he shoots less and distributes more.

Great stats, and for that I give you a TP.

But your interpretation of those stats may be faulty.

Firstly, you provided no stats to prove he is a negative on defense. I'd argue otherwise. He may not be elite in the second quarter of a November game, but last night in the overtime, he had an important steal and block to help give the Cs a lead. He makes timely defensive plays. He needs to be more consistent, but he is not an overall negative defensively.

Second, what if the reason he scores more in games they lose is because the rest of team is struggling, and he is trying to pull them to victory? Plus, those numbers are partially skewed because of the Detroit game, where he scored 3 points, but didn't need to score any more because the team was awesome that night.

My eye test definitely agrees that the Cs and Irving are still trying to figure out how to leverage Irving's elite offensive abilities into an elite team offense. We see it occasionally, but not consistently. He needs to improve at picking his spots and advanced manipulation of the court to get everyone involved.

All of that being said, if the Cs were hitting a higher percentage of open or wide open threes, we probably would not be talking about this at all.
Most talent in the league. We don't want or need AD.

Re: In Praise of Kyrie Irving
« Reply #14 on: November 09, 2018, 01:02:49 PM »

Online Moranis

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He was also -12 until the last 4 minutes of the game last night.  He can take over in short bursts, but he also gives up a lot of points on the other end.  He is just a bigger version of Thomas.

In the same way Durant is a bigger version of Kris Middleton, or Draymond Green is a bigger version of Justice Winslow, or Anthony Davis is a bigger version of Jerami Grant, or Lebron James is a bigger version of Evan Turner.
Not at all.  Sure those guys are all bigger, but they are also significantly more skilled, better all around players, etc.  Irving and Thomas are essentially the same player.  They are poor defenders, don't rebound well, aren't great passers, but are superb scorers and ball handlers.  They turn it on in the 4th quarter and are clutch, but they slack off for much of the first 3 quarters such that maybe they wouldn't need late game heroics if they were just better for most of the game. 

Irving is a good to great player, but he isn't a #1 on a title team type player.  He isn't carrying a franchise to great playoff success.  I mean the C's were 1 game away from the Finals without Irving.  The regular season win percentage was only slightly better with Irving than with Rozier leading the way, and that includes the unsustainable 15-2 start to last year (Irving missed a game) .  You take that start out and Boston was actually worse with Irving than with Rozier (I know you can't do that, but the point remains).  The Cavs basically didn't replace Irving, had all kinds of injuries and turmoil, and basically ended up with the exact same record and still made the Finals.  The loss of Irving had basically no effect on the Cavs performance last year. 

And I have been beating this drum since before the trade was made so it isn't some new reactionary thing.  Irving's actual effect on wins and losses isn't anywhere near what the vast majority of this board thinks it is. 

 

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