Author Topic: Ten Thoughts From Game 1  (Read 4549 times)

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Re: Ten Thoughts From Game 1
« Reply #75 on: October 18, 2018, 10:04:55 AM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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Brown will never be as good as peak Hayward? Uh...
Iíd definitely be surprised. Peak Hayward was only clearly behind LBJ, Durant, Kawhi & Giannis in terms of SFís.

Brown will never have the facilitating ability nor BBIQ Hayward does. He could definitely be a more explosive player, but better? I donít think so. Brown gives me more of a better-shooting worse-rebounding Gerald Wallace vibe

For comparison

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Jaylen+Brown&player_id1_select=Jaylen+Brown&player_id1=brownja02&y1=2018&player_id2_hint=Gordon+Hayward&player_id2_select=Gordon+Hayward&y2=2012&player_id2=haywago01&idx=players
Washington Wizards
G - Wall, Beal, Satoransky, Randle, McRae
W - Ariza, Porter, Green, Decker, Brown, Robinson
B - Howard, Mahinmi, Bryant, Morris
Picks - '19 1st 2nd(Atl), '20 1st, '21 1st, '22 1st, '23 1st 2nd

Re: Ten Thoughts From Game 1
« Reply #76 on: October 18, 2018, 10:08:06 AM »

Online gouki88

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Brown will never be as good as peak Hayward? Uh...
Iíd definitely be surprised. Peak Hayward was only clearly behind LBJ, Durant, Kawhi & Giannis in terms of SFís.

Brown will never have the facilitating ability nor BBIQ Hayward does. He could definitely be a more explosive player, but better? I donít think so. Brown gives me more of a better-shooting worse-rebounding Gerald Wallace vibe

For comparison

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Jaylen+Brown&player_id1_select=Jaylen+Brown&player_id1=brownja02&y1=2018&player_id2_hint=Gordon+Hayward&player_id2_select=Gordon+Hayward&y2=2012&player_id2=haywago01&idx=players
I donít think Haywardís early stages are a good comparison, because physically he was very underprepared for the league. He took quite some time to build strength & muscle. Brown on the other hand has been a brick since forever.
Mock Trade Deadline LAL roster and picks:

G: Ball, Hart, Rondo, KCP, Bonga, Stephenson
F: James, Ingram, Kuzma, Beasley, Mykhailiuk
C: McGee, Zubac, Chandler, Wagner
Picks: https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/team

Re: Ten Thoughts From Game 1
« Reply #77 on: October 18, 2018, 10:46:36 AM »

Offline CF033

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A few things:

What would have happened if the Sixers had picked Tatum no.1 instead of Fulz? They sure did screw the pooch. Didn't realize they had their PG in Simmons! Wow.

Tatum is a superstar shortly in the making. Slam dunk.

Rozier is one heck of a player. Confirms Ainge is a draft genius.



Jaylen Brown can jump over Embiid.

Still guys lapsing into bombing threes with no ball distribution and nobody near the basket.
Baynes shouldn't be shooting threes, and Morris shoots too many of them. Ball distribution, guys. Get better shots. Stevens needs to manage these things.

I disagree with this, mostly because a) Baynes is seemingly hitting his 3's at a high percentage, and hit 2/4 against Philly, and b) Morris is probably our best scorer off the bench, and feasts on opposition bench defences. Last season when Morris had to spend half his time as a starter, without a preseason, I think we asked too much of him. Coming off the bench and shooting is a good role for him, as he provides good defence and rebounding too.

I saw Baynes hit a 3 in the corner. Then he comes back and shoots another 3 from the same spot a few minutes later. Guess what? He misses.

I saw Morris shoot 3s down the court in four or five successive plays. Missed all of them. He had hit one previously. No passing for the best shot.

When they missed those 3s, Philly came right down the court and scored on easy layups, closing the score. The Celtics opened the lead again when they got back to ball distribution.

The 3 has always had a place, but it can be overdone and counterproductive. In the old days, the job went to Bird and Ainge.

Anybody who can't shoot 34% on the 3 should not be shooting them.

Be ready, this team is going to put up A LOT of threes this year. We have a slew of players who make your 34% criteria including our entire starting lineup. Guys off the bench like Rozier and Morris (and maybe Baynes, time will tell) also can make 34%+. The three is going to be a huge weapon for this team.

Baynes being able to shoot threes is really going to mess with team defenses, I'm guessing he's going to keep trying unless it proves that his streak in the playoffs last year was a fluke.

Re: Ten Thoughts From Game 1
« Reply #78 on: October 18, 2018, 10:50:10 AM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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Brown will never be as good as peak Hayward? Uh...
Iíd definitely be surprised. Peak Hayward was only clearly behind LBJ, Durant, Kawhi & Giannis in terms of SFís.

Brown will never have the facilitating ability nor BBIQ Hayward does. He could definitely be a more explosive player, but better? I donít think so. Brown gives me more of a better-shooting worse-rebounding Gerald Wallace vibe

For comparison

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Jaylen+Brown&player_id1_select=Jaylen+Brown&player_id1=brownja02&y1=2018&player_id2_hint=Gordon+Hayward&player_id2_select=Gordon+Hayward&y2=2012&player_id2=haywago01&idx=players
I donít think Haywardís early stages are a good comparison, because physically he was very underprepared for the league. He took quite some time to build strength & muscle. Brown on the other hand has been a brick since forever.

It's unfair to give Hayward leeway to develop his body, but not give leeway Brown to develop his skills.
Washington Wizards
G - Wall, Beal, Satoransky, Randle, McRae
W - Ariza, Porter, Green, Decker, Brown, Robinson
B - Howard, Mahinmi, Bryant, Morris
Picks - '19 1st 2nd(Atl), '20 1st, '21 1st, '22 1st, '23 1st 2nd

Re: Ten Thoughts From Game 1
« Reply #79 on: October 18, 2018, 11:06:19 AM »

Offline smokeablount

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If you look at the minutes Stevens really played everyone evenly and enough for them all to be happy.   The guys that didnt play probably shouldnt. Maybe Semi might grow frustrasted but someone will get hurt.

Semi can either learn how to make a 3 or kick rocks.  Someone that offensively deficient has no place in the regular rotation of a team favored to make the finals, even in the regular season.
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And forgive us our tanking
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Re: Ten Thoughts From Game 1
« Reply #80 on: October 18, 2018, 11:15:36 AM »

Offline keevsnick

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Brown will never be as good as peak Hayward? Uh...
Iíd definitely be surprised. Peak Hayward was only clearly behind LBJ, Durant, Kawhi & Giannis in terms of SFís.

Brown will never have the facilitating ability nor BBIQ Hayward does. He could definitely be a more explosive player, but better? I donít think so. Brown gives me more of a better-shooting worse-rebounding Gerald Wallace vibe

Yep, he was in the same sort of area as George and Butler. That 10-20th bets player in the league range. Jaylen compares very favorably with those three guys through his first two seasons, and closely with Kawhi as well. None of that means he is going to end up as good or better than them, but it does mean you can't dismiss the idea out of hand either.

Re: Ten Thoughts From Game 1
« Reply #81 on: October 18, 2018, 01:10:35 PM »

Offline Surferdad

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Brown will never be as good as peak Hayward? Uh...
Iíd definitely be surprised. Peak Hayward was only clearly behind LBJ, Durant, Kawhi & Giannis in terms of SFís.

Brown will never have the facilitating ability nor BBIQ Hayward does. He could definitely be a more explosive player, but better? I donít think so. Brown gives me more of a better-shooting worse-rebounding Gerald Wallace vibe

For comparison

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Jaylen+Brown&player_id1_select=Jaylen+Brown&player_id1=brownja02&y1=2018&player_id2_hint=Gordon+Hayward&player_id2_select=Gordon+Hayward&y2=2012&player_id2=haywago01&idx=players
I donít think Haywardís early stages are a good comparison, because physically he was very underprepared for the league. He took quite some time to build strength & muscle. Brown on the other hand has been a brick since forever.

It's unfair to give Hayward leeway to develop his body, but not give leeway Brown to develop his skills.
I think Brown needs to develop his body too.  You look at his biceps and might say he already has an NBA body, but specifically he needs more strength to be able to go into the lane successfully instead of being swallowed up. 

Re: Ten Thoughts From Game 1
« Reply #82 on: October 18, 2018, 01:39:21 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Brown's best case is a Paul Pierce like career, which is better than peak Hayward.

Re: Ten Thoughts From Game 1
« Reply #83 on: October 18, 2018, 01:41:54 PM »

Offline hpantazo

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Brown's best case is a Paul Pierce like career, which is better than peak Hayward.

Brown is a very different player than Pierce. Hayward is a lot more similar to Pierce than Jaylen is.

Re: Ten Thoughts From Game 1
« Reply #84 on: October 18, 2018, 01:47:09 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Brown's best case is a Paul Pierce like career, which is better than peak Hayward.

Brown is a very different player than Pierce. Hayward is a lot more similar to Pierce than Jaylen is.
Paul Pierce LIKE CAREER

Re: Ten Thoughts From Game 1
« Reply #85 on: October 18, 2018, 02:50:42 PM »

Offline Sophomore

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Disagree with 7. Brown didn't finish well tonight but with his usual finishing, he probably puts up 20 tonight. Brown will be a two way star. He has to stay and be used properly.
But youíre only half addressing the point.  I think someone is going to get lost amid all these A players.  I happen to think that guy will be Brown.
I think they will all find their role and on different nights, the leading scorer and star will be different and on many, many nights that star is Brown.

Brown missed several lay ups/offensive rebounds/makeable shots. He could easily have gone for 20+ tonight and if he did I am sure you aren't calling to trade him.
Iím not those makeable misses.  As I recall, he was swallowed up inside several times and heís never really been known for his touch around the rim anyway.

As far as calling to trade him, thatís not really the premise of my thread last week.  I more was pointing to a guy that might be replaced by another guy to make us better (theoretically).  For instance, I think the Celtics would be better right now with someone like reddick versus brown.

Reddick over Brown? Really? Reddick is 34, Brown is 21
Thats not the point.  I think reddick would be a better fit in this team and make us better right now.
Ugh, no way at all. Marginally better shooter than Brown, better off ball movement, but his defence and absolute lack of versatility would be terrible for us
Thats fine.  Iím referring to fit, and someone that can cause havoc without having the ball in his hands.  Of course brown is a better defender and more versatile but we have that in spades anyway.  One less versatile guy isnít going to kill this team.
I think you're underestimating how important Brown is to our perimeter defence. He's our best guy to defend the Thompson's, DeRozan's, Middleton's and other tall guard/wings of the league. Almost all the elite teams in the league have a player like that, and Redick routinely gets crushed by them. Would kill us over a series
Perhaps.  But is brown going to accept the defensive stopper role that is a fifth or sixth option on offense?  Thatís part of the point.
We can't tell, but I don't necessarily think he'll be a 5th or 6th option offensively long term at all. I think the #3 or #4 guy, depending on how much Hayward turns into what is effectively the wing version of Horford, is much more likely. Just because he's a defensive stopper doesn't mean he can't get 12-15 FGA's
Yeah, thatís where we differ.  I think Hayward will be fine.  And I donít think jaylen will ever be as good as peak Hayward.  His feel for the game is just so far below average, even for his age.  I donít think it will ever be average.

First, he's 21. Which means that if it was the 1980s, he wouldn't even be in the league. There are *so many* players who have made major improvements in their game feel in their mid-20s. 

Second, I really disagree that his feel for the game is grossly deficient. I would not say he's at the top of the pile, but I also wouldn't say he's at the bottom. His defensive awareness is good and improving. For offensive game feel, I saw him make a couple of very smart decisions - recognizing when he had a smaller man on him and taking him into the post for an easy bucket using the moves he developed over the winter. That's clear growth over an offseason. His handle is miles better than in his year 1. There are other examples, but you are really underselling him.

As a reminder: 18 points on .563 TS% during the playoffs last year - including a few games where he was half strength due to injury.

Re: Ten Thoughts From Game 1
« Reply #86 on: October 18, 2018, 02:52:26 PM »

Offline Sophomore

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Brown will never be as good as peak Hayward? Uh...
Iíd definitely be surprised. Peak Hayward was only clearly behind LBJ, Durant, Kawhi & Giannis in terms of SFís.

Brown will never have the facilitating ability nor BBIQ Hayward does. He could definitely be a more explosive player, but better? I donít think so. Brown gives me more of a better-shooting worse-rebounding Gerald Wallace vibe

For comparison

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Jaylen+Brown&player_id1_select=Jaylen+Brown&player_id1=brownja02&y1=2018&player_id2_hint=Gordon+Hayward&player_id2_select=Gordon+Hayward&y2=2012&player_id2=haywago01&idx=players

Thank you - TP.

Re: Ten Thoughts From Game 1
« Reply #87 on: October 18, 2018, 03:12:39 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Disagree with 7. Brown didn't finish well tonight but with his usual finishing, he probably puts up 20 tonight. Brown will be a two way star. He has to stay and be used properly.
But youíre only half addressing the point.  I think someone is going to get lost amid all these A players.  I happen to think that guy will be Brown.
I think they will all find their role and on different nights, the leading scorer and star will be different and on many, many nights that star is Brown.

Brown missed several lay ups/offensive rebounds/makeable shots. He could easily have gone for 20+ tonight and if he did I am sure you aren't calling to trade him.
Iím not those makeable misses.  As I recall, he was swallowed up inside several times and heís never really been known for his touch around the rim anyway.

As far as calling to trade him, thatís not really the premise of my thread last week.  I more was pointing to a guy that might be replaced by another guy to make us better (theoretically).  For instance, I think the Celtics would be better right now with someone like reddick versus brown.

Reddick over Brown? Really? Reddick is 34, Brown is 21
Thats not the point.  I think reddick would be a better fit in this team and make us better right now.
Ugh, no way at all. Marginally better shooter than Brown, better off ball movement, but his defence and absolute lack of versatility would be terrible for us
Thats fine.  Iím referring to fit, and someone that can cause havoc without having the ball in his hands.  Of course brown is a better defender and more versatile but we have that in spades anyway.  One less versatile guy isnít going to kill this team.
I think you're underestimating how important Brown is to our perimeter defence. He's our best guy to defend the Thompson's, DeRozan's, Middleton's and other tall guard/wings of the league. Almost all the elite teams in the league have a player like that, and Redick routinely gets crushed by them. Would kill us over a series
Perhaps.  But is brown going to accept the defensive stopper role that is a fifth or sixth option on offense?  Thatís part of the point.
We can't tell, but I don't necessarily think he'll be a 5th or 6th option offensively long term at all. I think the #3 or #4 guy, depending on how much Hayward turns into what is effectively the wing version of Horford, is much more likely. Just because he's a defensive stopper doesn't mean he can't get 12-15 FGA's
Yeah, thatís where we differ.  I think Hayward will be fine.  And I donít think jaylen will ever be as good as peak Hayward.  His feel for the game is just so far below average, even for his age.  I donít think it will ever be average.

First, he's 21. Which means that if it was the 1980s, he wouldn't even be in the league. There are *so many* players who have made major improvements in their game feel in their mid-20s. 

Second, I really disagree that his feel for the game is grossly deficient. I would not say he's at the top of the pile, but I also wouldn't say he's at the bottom. His defensive awareness is good and improving. For offensive game feel, I saw him make a couple of very smart decisions - recognizing when he had a smaller man on him and taking him into the post for an easy bucket using the moves he developed over the winter. That's clear growth over an offseason. His handle is miles better than in his year 1. There are other examples, but you are really underselling him.

As a reminder: 18 points on .563 TS% during the playoffs last year - including a few games where he was half strength due to injury.
To add to this, after 7 seasons Hayward had 3 games scoring 30+ points in the playoffs. Brown has had 2 such games after just 2 seasons.

Re: Ten Thoughts From Game 1
« Reply #88 on: October 18, 2018, 03:33:56 PM »

Offline ETNCeltics

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Brown will never be as good as peak Hayward? Uh...
Iíd definitely be surprised. Peak Hayward was only clearly behind LBJ, Durant, Kawhi & Giannis in terms of SFís.

Brown will never have the facilitating ability nor BBIQ Hayward does. He could definitely be a more explosive player, but better? I donít think so. Brown gives me more of a better-shooting worse-rebounding Gerald Wallace vibe

For comparison

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Jaylen+Brown&player_id1_select=Jaylen+Brown&player_id1=brownja02&y1=2018&player_id2_hint=Gordon+Hayward&player_id2_select=Gordon+Hayward&y2=2012&player_id2=haywago01&idx=players
I donít think Haywardís early stages are a good comparison, because physically he was very underprepared for the league. He took quite some time to build strength & muscle. Brown on the other hand has been a brick since forever.

It's unfair to give Hayward leeway to develop his body, but not give leeway Brown to develop his skills.
I think Brown needs to develop his body too.  You look at his biceps and might say he already has an NBA body, but specifically he needs more strength to be able to go into the lane successfully instead of being swallowed up.
Many players with less bulk and strength than Brown successfully navigate the lane. His issue isn't lack of strength.

The development he needs more than anything else is between his ears, and his lack of overall basketball development. People forget how raw he was 2 years ago. He was basically a high schooler when he got here. He's 21 years old, many of the all time greats weren't even in the league at this point in their lives. Jaylen is learning on the job.

Frankly, I don't see how anyone can discount his massive potential when you see the difference in Jaylen Brown year 1 vs. year 2. If he takes anything resembling that leap forward again this year, he won't be far from the all-defensive team and an all star.

Re: Ten Thoughts From Game 1
« Reply #89 on: October 18, 2018, 03:35:33 PM »

Offline unclebay

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Disagree with 7. Brown didn't finish well tonight but with his usual finishing, he probably puts up 20 tonight. Brown will be a two way star. He has to stay and be used properly.
But youíre only half addressing the point.  I think someone is going to get lost amid all these A players.  I happen to think that guy will be Brown.
I think they will all find their role and on different nights, the leading scorer and star will be different and on many, many nights that star is Brown.

Brown missed several lay ups/offensive rebounds/makeable shots. He could easily have gone for 20+ tonight and if he did I am sure you aren't calling to trade him.
Iím not seeing those makeable misses.  As I recall, he was swallowed up inside several times and heís never really been known for his touch around the rim anyway.

As far as calling to trade him, thatís not really the premise of my thread last week.  I more was pointing to a guy that might be replaced by another guy to make us better (theoretically).  For instance, I think the Celtics would be better right now with someone like reddick versus brown.
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