Would You Trade Smart for Wiggins, Right Now?

[gouki88]

No and not because he is Canadian, but that doesnt help.

For a guy who is/was soooo hyped he just isn't very good IMO.

Why has he been traded so readily and at so early in his career?

You mean from Cleveland? I think that's a strange thing to be concerned about

Yeah i know.

Was it lebron appeasement?

If he is so good then why trade him?

Thats what i find strange, not that he was tradec but that the wolves got ripped off.

I just think it was a major draft miss. Heaps of people (myself included) thought he could be a TMac like scorer with elite defence. However, he has just not panned out, seemingly due to a lack of dedication/focus.

I think he was traded for balance (1 guard, 1 wing and 1 big as a Big 3) and to try and win now more than anything.

The trade was simple: to go into win-now mode with an established vet who complimented LeBron better. It wasn’t because they didn’t trust Wiggins.

And as for it being a draft miss.... how many 21-year-olds average nearly 24ppg? I know he didn’t score as much this past season, but I think it has more to do with Butler coming aboard (and Crawford) and KAT getting more touches. He’s still very young and people like to hate on him but he’s a very effective player and by the time he enters his prime could very well be a two-way threat.

Assuming you are okay with missing nearly 3 seasons worth of games out of 4, and believe in him long term, you take Embiid first. Then who? He’s been the most productive player in his draft thus far. Jokic came out of nowhere mid-second, every team passed on him.

I agree that it's premature to label Wiggins a bust.  Despite this it's very concerning that his game hasn't developed in four seasons.  Flip Saunders, Kevin Garnett, and Tom Thibodeau have all been present at some point during Wiggins' career.  Multiple posters mentioned Jeff Green as a comparison.  The lack of drive appears to be very similar between the two players.

As for the 24 PPG in 2016-17, Wiggins was one of the least efficient scorers at the wing position.  I would give him more credit if his efficiency improved last season.

1.23 points per shot isn't that inefficient.  I mean Kyrie Irving's 3rd year in the league he was scoring only 1.20 points per shot.  Heck his 5th year in the league and 2nd with Lebon he was only scoring 1.18 points per shot.  Even his final year in Cleveland he was just 1.28 points per shot.  Jaylen Brown last year was at just 1.26 points per shot. Al Horford last year was 1.23 points per shot (though he was rounded up and Wiggins was rounded down).

This idea that Wiggins is terribly inefficient just isn't true.  The only concerning part was he didn't adjust to his new role very well and was less efficient last year then the prior year.  But his efficiency is just fine.

Of the 36 players who took at least 1000 shots last year, Wiggins was 34th in true shooting percentage, ahead of only Carmelo and Dennis Smith Jr.  Lower that threshold to 750 shots last season, and he was 95th out of 99, with only Josh Jackson and De’Aaron Fox also falling beneath him.

He was very inefficient, especially for someone who takes a lot of shots.

That's incredibly [dang]ing. Three rookies and the ghost of Melo were the only people less efficient than him, in terms of guys who actually take shots. Wow

[Moranis]

No and not because he is Canadian, but that doesnt help.

For a guy who is/was soooo hyped he just isn't very good IMO.

Why has he been traded so readily and at so early in his career?

You mean from Cleveland? I think that's a strange thing to be concerned about

Yeah i know.

Was it lebron appeasement?

If he is so good then why trade him?

Thats what i find strange, not that he was tradec but that the wolves got ripped off.

I just think it was a major draft miss. Heaps of people (myself included) thought he could be a TMac like scorer with elite defence. However, he has just not panned out, seemingly due to a lack of dedication/focus.

I think he was traded for balance (1 guard, 1 wing and 1 big as a Big 3) and to try and win now more than anything.

The trade was simple: to go into win-now mode with an established vet who complimented LeBron better. It wasn’t because they didn’t trust Wiggins.

And as for it being a draft miss.... how many 21-year-olds average nearly 24ppg? I know he didn’t score as much this past season, but I think it has more to do with Butler coming aboard (and Crawford) and KAT getting more touches. He’s still very young and people like to hate on him but he’s a very effective player and by the time he enters his prime could very well be a two-way threat.

Assuming you are okay with missing nearly 3 seasons worth of games out of 4, and believe in him long term, you take Embiid first. Then who? He’s been the most productive player in his draft thus far. Jokic came out of nowhere mid-second, every team passed on him.

I agree that it's premature to label Wiggins a bust.  Despite this it's very concerning that his game hasn't developed in four seasons.  Flip Saunders, Kevin Garnett, and Tom Thibodeau have all been present at some point during Wiggins' career.  Multiple posters mentioned Jeff Green as a comparison.  The lack of drive appears to be very similar between the two players.

As for the 24 PPG in 2016-17, Wiggins was one of the least efficient scorers at the wing position.  I would give him more credit if his efficiency improved last season.

1.23 points per shot isn't that inefficient.  I mean Kyrie Irving's 3rd year in the league he was scoring only 1.20 points per shot.  Heck his 5th year in the league and 2nd with Lebon he was only scoring 1.18 points per shot.  Even his final year in Cleveland he was just 1.28 points per shot.  Jaylen Brown last year was at just 1.26 points per shot. Al Horford last year was 1.23 points per shot (though he was rounded up and Wiggins was rounded down).

This idea that Wiggins is terribly inefficient just isn't true.  The only concerning part was he didn't adjust to his new role very well and was less efficient last year then the prior year.  But his efficiency is just fine.

Of the 36 players who took at least 1000 shots last year, Wiggins was 34th in true shooting percentage, ahead of only Carmelo and Dennis Smith Jr.  Lower that threshold to 750 shots last season, and he was 95th out of 99, with only Josh Jackson and De’Aaron Fox also falling beneath him.

He was very inefficient, especially for someone who takes a lot of shots.

Last year was bad, I acknowledged that.  My discussion was in response to the statement regarding the 16-17 season.  I thought that was obvious.

[saltlover]

No and not because he is Canadian, but that doesnt help.

For a guy who is/was soooo hyped he just isn't very good IMO.

Why has he been traded so readily and at so early in his career?

You mean from Cleveland? I think that's a strange thing to be concerned about

Yeah i know.

Was it lebron appeasement?

If he is so good then why trade him?

Thats what i find strange, not that he was tradec but that the wolves got ripped off.

I just think it was a major draft miss. Heaps of people (myself included) thought he could be a TMac like scorer with elite defence. However, he has just not panned out, seemingly due to a lack of dedication/focus.

I think he was traded for balance (1 guard, 1 wing and 1 big as a Big 3) and to try and win now more than anything.

The trade was simple: to go into win-now mode with an established vet who complimented LeBron better. It wasn’t because they didn’t trust Wiggins.

And as for it being a draft miss.... how many 21-year-olds average nearly 24ppg? I know he didn’t score as much this past season, but I think it has more to do with Butler coming aboard (and Crawford) and KAT getting more touches. He’s still very young and people like to hate on him but he’s a very effective player and by the time he enters his prime could very well be a two-way threat.

Assuming you are okay with missing nearly 3 seasons worth of games out of 4, and believe in him long term, you take Embiid first. Then who? He’s been the most productive player in his draft thus far. Jokic came out of nowhere mid-second, every team passed on him.

I agree that it's premature to label Wiggins a bust.  Despite this it's very concerning that his game hasn't developed in four seasons.  Flip Saunders, Kevin Garnett, and Tom Thibodeau have all been present at some point during Wiggins' career.  Multiple posters mentioned Jeff Green as a comparison.  The lack of drive appears to be very similar between the two players.

As for the 24 PPG in 2016-17, Wiggins was one of the least efficient scorers at the wing position.  I would give him more credit if his efficiency improved last season.

1.23 points per shot isn't that inefficient.  I mean Kyrie Irving's 3rd year in the league he was scoring only 1.20 points per shot.  Heck his 5th year in the league and 2nd with Lebon he was only scoring 1.18 points per shot.  Even his final year in Cleveland he was just 1.28 points per shot.  Jaylen Brown last year was at just 1.26 points per shot. Al Horford last year was 1.23 points per shot (though he was rounded up and Wiggins was rounded down).

This idea that Wiggins is terribly inefficient just isn't true.  The only concerning part was he didn't adjust to his new role very well and was less efficient last year then the prior year.  But his efficiency is just fine.

Of the 36 players who took at least 1000 shots last year, Wiggins was 34th in true shooting percentage, ahead of only Carmelo and Dennis Smith Jr.  Lower that threshold to 750 shots last season, and he was 95th out of 99, with only Josh Jackson and De’Aaron Fox also falling beneath him.

He was very inefficient, especially for someone who takes a lot of shots.

Last year was bad, I acknowledged that.  My discussion was in response to the statement regarding the 16-17 season.  I thought that was obvious.

Even in 2016-2017, he was 32nd of 38 players in true shooting percentage among players who took at least 1000 shots.  He’s inefficient shooting, doesn’t pass, and is not engaged on defense.  It’s kind of like he’s Carmelo, only he skipped the prime of his career and is mimicking late career Carmelo, except Carmelo still rebounds occasionally.

[mmmmm]

No and not because he is Canadian, but that doesnt help.

For a guy who is/was soooo hyped he just isn't very good IMO.

Why has he been traded so readily and at so early in his career?

You mean from Cleveland? I think that's a strange thing to be concerned about

Yeah i know.

Was it lebron appeasement?

If he is so good then why trade him?

Thats what i find strange, not that he was tradec but that the wolves got ripped off.

I just think it was a major draft miss. Heaps of people (myself included) thought he could be a TMac like scorer with elite defence. However, he has just not panned out, seemingly due to a lack of dedication/focus.

I think he was traded for balance (1 guard, 1 wing and 1 big as a Big 3) and to try and win now more than anything.

The trade was simple: to go into win-now mode with an established vet who complimented LeBron better. It wasn’t because they didn’t trust Wiggins.

And as for it being a draft miss.... how many 21-year-olds average nearly 24ppg? I know he didn’t score as much this past season, but I think it has more to do with Butler coming aboard (and Crawford) and KAT getting more touches. He’s still very young and people like to hate on him but he’s a very effective player and by the time he enters his prime could very well be a two-way threat.

Assuming you are okay with missing nearly 3 seasons worth of games out of 4, and believe in him long term, you take Embiid first. Then who? He’s been the most productive player in his draft thus far. Jokic came out of nowhere mid-second, every team passed on him.

I agree that it's premature to label Wiggins a bust.  Despite this it's very concerning that his game hasn't developed in four seasons.  Flip Saunders, Kevin Garnett, and Tom Thibodeau have all been present at some point during Wiggins' career.  Multiple posters mentioned Jeff Green as a comparison.  The lack of drive appears to be very similar between the two players.

As for the 24 PPG in 2016-17, Wiggins was one of the least efficient scorers at the wing position.  I would give him more credit if his efficiency improved last season.

1.23 points per shot isn't that inefficient.  I mean Kyrie Irving's 3rd year in the league he was scoring only 1.20 points per shot.  Heck his 5th year in the league and 2nd with Lebon he was only scoring 1.18 points per shot.  Even his final year in Cleveland he was just 1.28 points per shot.  Jaylen Brown last year was at just 1.26 points per shot. Al Horford last year was 1.23 points per shot (though he was rounded up and Wiggins was rounded down).

This idea that Wiggins is terribly inefficient just isn't true.  The only concerning part was he didn't adjust to his new role very well and was less efficient last year then the prior year.  But his efficiency is just fine.

Of the 36 players who took at least 1000 shots last year, Wiggins was 34th in true shooting percentage, ahead of only Carmelo and Dennis Smith Jr.  Lower that threshold to 750 shots last season, and he was 95th out of 99, with only Josh Jackson and De’Aaron Fox also falling beneath him.

He was very inefficient, especially for someone who takes a lot of shots.

Last year was bad, I acknowledged that.  My discussion was in response to the statement regarding the 16-17 season.  I thought that was obvious.

Even in 2016-2017, he was 32nd of 38 players in true shooting percentage among players who took at least 1000 shots.  He’s inefficient shooting, doesn’t pass, and is not engaged on defense.  It’s kind of like he’s Carmelo, only he skipped the prime of his career and is mimicking late career Carmelo, except Carmelo still rebounds occasionally.

The problem for Wiggins is that the last two seasons Wiggins doesn't get to the line at anywhere near the rates he did his first two seasons.   And last year that just dropped off the table.

Wiggins isn't a great shooter, but he's good enough that if he supplements his efficiency by getting to the FT line, he could become very efficient.    But if he's not getting to the FT line, that really cuts the legs out from under his offensive value.

His first two seasons, Wiggins posted fantastic FTr rates of .410 & .437.  Since then, that number has dropped to .345 and .242.

Is that a Thibodeau effect?  Injury?   Karl Anthony Towns effect?  I dunno.

[Fafnir]

Is that a Thibodeau effect?  Injury?   Karl Anthony Towns effect?  I dunno.

It is his shot selection. He's taken more shots further from the rim and the FT rate has declined pretty much as you'd expect.

His shooting fouls drawn by year:
221
252
243
143

[The Oracle]

Is that a Thibodeau effect?  Injury?   Karl Anthony Towns effect?  I dunno.

It is his shot selection. He's taken more shots further from the rim and the FT rate has declined pretty much as you'd expect.

His shooting fouls drawn by year:
221
252
243
143

It's mostly because of the addition of Jimmy Butler.  Putting the ball in Jimmy's hands and have him create offense a lot moved Wiggins off ball a lot more.  His front court touches dropped dramatically from 40.5 in 16-17 to 31.7 in 17-18.  The rub with Wiggins is he isn't a good enough creator to warrant giving him the ball a ton nor is he very effective in an off ball role.

As a creator Jaylen Brown is a good comparison as at this point in his career Brown isn't near good enough for you to want to put the ball in his hands a lot, he is however much better than Wiggins in an off ball role as well as a much better defender.

[colincb]

You cannot make a statistical case that Wiggins is better unless you really, really hate Smart. I'm not a huge fan, but Smart’s a plus rotation player whose annual contract is $2 million higher than I’d like to see.


2018 NBA Advanced Stat Rankings

VORP
AW tied for 488th best
MS tied for 170th best

Box +/-
AW tied for 339th best
MS tied for 189th best

Winshares/48
AW tied for 407th best
MS tied for 347th best

ESPN’s Real +/-
AW tied for 322nd best
MS tied for 100th best



Basketball-reference.com 2017-2018 season and career comparisons, respectively:

http://bkref.com/tiny/ZzBMx
http://bkref.com/tiny/alaiY

[Erik]

https://youtu.be/vv1BaDhcQUU

Jeesh. That's a horrible play defensively. James Harden-esque defensive footwork

This looks like the ice defense that Thibs used in Boston (we still use it). I think KAT is at fault on this one.

I see what you're saying but, scheme aside, there has to be a base line assumption that you're not going to just let your man walk past you like Wiggins does here.

I mean, I don't know what to tell you. There's no "scheme aside" in an organized team sport. NBA players run sets the coaching staff tells them to run for better or for worse. It's like if the coach tells you to run a 2-3 zone and you're getting lit up from 3s and someone goes on a forum and says "scheme aside, there has to be a base line assumption that you aren't giving away wide open 3's."

In an ICE defense, the wing player's job is to force the driver right into your big and then rotate to the open players. Kind of like a chess gambit. We do it on a lot of pick and rolls. I can't say for sure who is to blame here because I don't know if it was the intended scheme or if Wiggins really did just let him blow by, but one thing is for sure is that KAT was not paying attention at all and he tried to scramble at the last second -- a good indicator that he knew that he was out of position. The position Wiggins was in also leads me to believe that it was ICE. Otherwise it's just bizarre that he's setting up that way.

[saltlover]

https://youtu.be/vv1BaDhcQUU

Jeesh. That's a horrible play defensively. James Harden-esque defensive footwork

This looks like the ice defense that Thibs used in Boston (we still use it). I think KAT is at fault on this one.

I see what you're saying but, scheme aside, there has to be a base line assumption that you're not going to just let your man walk past you like Wiggins does here.

I mean, I don't know what to tell you. There's no "scheme aside" in an organized team sport. NBA players run sets the coaching staff tells them to run for better or for worse. It's like if the coach tells you to run a 2-3 zone and you're getting lit up from 3s and someone goes on a forum and says "scheme aside, there has to be a base line assumption that you aren't giving away wide open 3's."

In an ICE defense, the wing player's job is to force the driver right into your big and then rotate to the open players. Kind of like a chess gambit. We do it on a lot of pick and rolls. I can't say for sure who is to blame here because I don't know if it was the intended scheme or if Wiggins really did just let him blow by, but one thing is for sure is that KAT was not paying attention at all and he tried to scramble at the last second -- a good indicator that he knew that he was out of position. The position Wiggins was in also leads me to believe that it was ICE. Otherwise it's just bizarre that he's setting up that way.

Two seasons ago, players literally shot better when being defended by Wiggins than when being unguarded.  While there is some fluke to that number, certainly, Wiggins is an atrocious defender, has been for his entire career, and it wouldn’t remotely surprise me if he set up that way because he fell for the very slight hesitation by Smart or mistakenly thought he was much closer to the baseline.  Whether or not Towns should have been there, you should NEVER let someone drive clean to the basket 3 seconds into a half-court set.  I’m sure he was not coached to do that.

[action781]

I think a lot of Wiggins problems right now and Smarts successes have been due to their coaches.

If Smart was drafted to many other teams, he would not have been in a situation where he had to work hard for playing time which also was available if he did work hard.  Not many teams have shown the patience with players shooting under 40% from the field to keep giving them 28+ min per game, doesn't matter how good of a defender they are.  Teams also would have probably tried to force him to be point guard, where he is fine, but might not be creative enough to let him play (and be a play maker) off ball while being such a bad shooter. 

Wiggins was thrust into a team and coach which gave him way too many minutes (36 per game as a rookie for 82 games -- the second most total minutes in the entire NBA).  So many that I'm sure that he was often tired which got him to develop a lot of bad and lazy habits without ever any consequence.  I absolutely believe those can be corrected with a coach that plays him only ~30-32 min per game and emphasizes improvement in this regard.  And on offense, Thibs has done him a complete disservice by running isos every possession.

[Big333223]

https://youtu.be/vv1BaDhcQUU

Jeesh. That's a horrible play defensively. James Harden-esque defensive footwork

This looks like the ice defense that Thibs used in Boston (we still use it). I think KAT is at fault on this one.

I see what you're saying but, scheme aside, there has to be a base line assumption that you're not going to just let your man walk past you like Wiggins does here.

I mean, I don't know what to tell you. There's no "scheme aside" in an organized team sport. NBA players run sets the coaching staff tells them to run for better or for worse. It's like if the coach tells you to run a 2-3 zone and you're getting lit up from 3s and someone goes on a forum and says "scheme aside, there has to be a base line assumption that you aren't giving away wide open 3's."

In an ICE defense, the wing player's job is to force the driver right into your big and then rotate to the open players. Kind of like a chess gambit. We do it on a lot of pick and rolls. I can't say for sure who is to blame here because I don't know if it was the intended scheme or if Wiggins really did just let him blow by, but one thing is for sure is that KAT was not paying attention at all and he tried to scramble at the last second -- a good indicator that he knew that he was out of position. The position Wiggins was in also leads me to believe that it was ICE. Otherwise it's just bizarre that he's setting up that way.

It sounds like you're saying part of the defensive scheme is to not stay in front of your man. I know Thibodeau is smarter than me so I'm not going to understand everything he does but I feel confident "let everyone go by you" is not part of his scheme.

[Erik]

Youre not just letting him by. Youre funneling him into a big to trap. Youll see similar sets with us and Horford waiting.

[Monkhouse]

Youre not just letting him by. Youre funneling him into a big to trap. Youll see similar sets with us and Horford waiting.

Regardless, there is absolutely no attempt whatsoever to try to go behind the back for a block, or any hands up to contest...

That is terrible defense no matter how you slice it...

[saltlover]

Youre not just letting him by. Youre funneling him into a big to trap. Youll see similar sets with us and Horford waiting.

You don’t funnel to a trap that early in a possession, because your defense isn’t completely set.  5-7 second left in the shot clock, sure.  20 seconds left, with your teammates just turning around to face up their man?  You’re asking for someone to be wide open.

Wiggins didn’t try to slow Smart down at all.  He never gets into a defensive stance at any time.  This wasn’t funneling.  This was bad individual defense.  I grant it’s so atrocious that it makes sense to look for another reason, but Occam’s Razor, man.

[mmmmm]

You cannot make a statistical case that Wiggins is better unless you really, really hate Smart. I'm not a huge fan, but Smart’s a plus rotation player whose annual contract is $2 million higher than I’d like to see.


2018 NBA Advanced Stat Rankings

VORP
AW tied for 488th best
MS tied for 170th best

Box +/-
AW tied for 339th best
MS tied for 189th best

Winshares/48
AW tied for 407th best
MS tied for 347th best

ESPN’s Real +/-
AW tied for 322nd best
MS tied for 100th best



Basketball-reference.com 2017-2018 season and career comparisons, respectively:

http://bkref.com/tiny/ZzBMx
http://bkref.com/tiny/alaiY

Yikes.  Neither of those sets of numbers look all that appealing to me.   Why are we talking about these two guys again?