Author Topic: Hayward’s Screws removed  (Read 11175 times)

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Re: Hayward’s Screws removed
« Reply #75 on: May 31, 2018, 12:25:15 PM »

Offline CF033

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At this point Hayward/Tatum/Brown are all very close offensively, but their games are different and I think they are going to work very well together.

Next season is going to be fun! Can't wait. We should be both an offensive and defensive juggernaut.

Re: Hayward’s Screws removed
« Reply #76 on: May 31, 2018, 12:25:32 PM »

Offline trickybilly

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Gonna be great re-visiting this thread in May next year.

My two cents is just that Hayward will be taking A LOT more open shots. That being said, Tatum was pretty efficient this year and made TONS of tough jumpers and quick release threes..
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Re: Hayward’s Screws removed
« Reply #77 on: May 31, 2018, 12:26:31 PM »

Offline KungPoweChicken

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Also TS% is my least favorite stat along with per36, (people use this on players that barely average 10 MPG..) It always unfairly rates free throw highly..

That being said, Hayward shot 39.8% 3P, and got to the line 5 times per game. Something that Tatum will eventually get past in 1-2 years, but I'm not convinced that he will score a lot either. Our offense relies on moving and sharing the ball.


Agree about the ball movement part. However, while Hayward's career 3pt percentage and FT percentage are a very respectable .368 and .82, these are both numbers Tatum eclipsed as a rookie.

Why do you keep using his career average numbers instead of his most recent season (or two)? Hayward is not the same player he was when he came into the league, so why include those years (unless your goal is just to deflate his numbers)?



Because he is turning 29 this season, playing on a team with three bonafide scorers, and is coming off a significant injury. Considering all that, do you think it's reasonable to simply use Hayward's career season numbers on bad Utah teams where he was the number one option?

As an analogy, when Kevin Love was in his prime with the Wolves he was averaging 26ppg. His four seasons with the Cavs, however, he has averaged 17.1ppg with 19.0ppg the highest in 2016-17. Should we expect K-Love to start putting up 25ppg next season if he is still playing on the Cavs with the same team dynamic?

To address the second half you added: where did you get that idea? I would take his most recent season (or two), and say that, in the same role next year, he should be averaging about 18ppg. Taking his career average (which includes his 11 ppg rookie season and 25ppg monster seasons) doesn't make any sense

If Lebron leaves and his role changes, I'd use the past couple of years as a baseline and guess from there.

I honestly have no clue what your basing my apparent Kevin Love projection of 25ppg from


That's what I am saying. In 2013-14 Love averaged 26.1ppg for the Wolves. The following year on the Cavs he averaged 16.4ppg, nearly a 10ppg decrease. According to your logic, you would have been expecting Love to average 26.1ppg on the Cavs for the 2014-15 season because those were his stats the prior year.

So, you're ignoring what I'm actually saying.

When a player has a change in role, you don't ignore it, you take it into consideration. But that doesn't mean using their career average. Changing the role you have isn't going to make you the average of all your seasons in the NBA, it will make you the player you were, but in a different role.

If that involves being a 2nd or 3rd option instead of 1st, your USG% and points will likely go down, while efficiency increases. If that means being the 1st option instead of the 2nd or 3rd, your USG% and points will likely go up, while your efficiency decreases.



I never said change in roll is equal to career averages. However? In Hayward’s case it’s not a terribly bad metric because his career shows a span of primary, secondary, an tertiary scoring options with various usage rates. If you’d like to hypothesize on what his change of role would be next year and how statistically anticipate I am actually all ears.
Yo

Re: Hayward’s Screws removed
« Reply #78 on: May 31, 2018, 12:32:42 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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never had any removed ...

been told a few are loose.  ;)

Re: Hayward’s Screws removed
« Reply #79 on: May 31, 2018, 12:45:27 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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All I have to say is that Vermont G and fanfir are on fire.  I love tatum as much as the next guy but I'm very excited to see what Hayward will do when he is not the focus of the defense.  I don't think the Klay comparison is far off at all. 

Re: Hayward’s Screws removed
« Reply #80 on: May 31, 2018, 12:47:49 PM »

Offline gouki88

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All I have to say is that Vermont G and fanfir are on fire.  I love tatum as much as the next guy but I'm very excited to see what Hayward where he is not the focus of the defense.  I don't think the Klay comparison is far off at all.
Agree with you, and those you mentioned
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Re: Hayward’s Screws removed
« Reply #81 on: May 31, 2018, 12:47:50 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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Not sure if this was linked but apparently hayward has some pain from the screws.  But everything should be good now.

https://nesn.com/2018/05/danny-ainge-explains-why-gordon-hayward-needed-second-ankle-procedure/

Re: Hayward’s Screws removed
« Reply #82 on: May 31, 2018, 02:41:19 PM »

Offline IDreamCeltics

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I think people are forgetting how good Hayward is in all aspects of the game: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEt8p6a6uXU


I actually think the exact opposite. It seems a lot of fans have expectations that are too high, mostly because of the "max contract" label. Hayward will be the fourth best player on the team, behind Irving, Tatum, and then Brown. I fully expect Hayward to be a team contributor, make the right play, and play within the framework of the schemes. But if fans criticize Al Horford for "not being a max guy" then Hayward is going to get the criticism even worse. I see a lot of fans penciling Hayward in for 20ppg next season. They are going to be in for a big surprise. I'm fully expecting him to average about 13, 3, and 3 while playing about 26 minutes a game.

Are those expectations based upon any kind of reality?



Yes, they are. For his career, he only averages 15.6ppg. He is now returning from a left tibia fracture/dislocation while playing on a team that has many scoring options. Under these circumstances, why is it unrealistic to believe he will average 13ppg?

Because his production has increased every year of his career. He’s not a 15.6ppg scorer. Rather, he was a Western Conference All-Star averaging 22 ppg, comparing favorably to Paul George and Jimmy Butler.

Marcus Morris scores 13 ppg this year. Hayward is obviously more talented and accomplished than Morris, so it seems a bit odd that Hayward wouldn’t exceed that projection.


Fair enough. But, his numbers increased as he became the number one option. His efficiency, however, didn't necessarily increase. Given Hayward's mediocre efficiency, I cannot see how the offense would benefit by giving him more shots than either Tatum or Brown, who have both proven to be more efficient (Tatum especially). Not the end all be all, but Tatum had a higher TS% as a rookie than every season Hayward ever had except 2016-2017. Last season, Jaylen Brown's TS% was .562. Hayward's career TS% is literally .563. Also, take into consideration that Brown's TS% is adversely affected with poor FT shooting. If he can improve his FTs, his TS% should only continue to rise. I am not saying that Hayward is a bad player. Rather, I am saying I do not see the substantial evidence to declare him a better player than either Brown or Tatum, or a player deserving of more shots/touches, especially when he is coming off a significant injury.

Hayward is not a bad player, however he IS a bad contract.  I hope they can find a way to get out from under it.


Hayward is only a bad contract if you factor in him making $30 million on a broken leg. His contract is market rate for the player he was (and hopefully continues to be after he recovers)

There's always this odd idea that floats around here that if a player isn't a super-duper star they aren't worthy of a max, but that isn't true. He makes about as much as Lebron and Curry because those guys are massively underpaid, not because he's overpaid.

Salary for 2017-2018 per espn

He makes about as much as Lebron and Curry because he's the 4th highest paid player in the NBA.

Here's his salary compared to some other names that have been tossed around on #Celticsblog over the years.

Hayward: $29,727,900
Kevin Durant $25,000,000
Bradley Beal $23,775,506
Giannis Antetokounmpo $22,471,910
Victor Oladipo $21,000,000
Paul George $19,508,958
Jimmy Butler $19,301,070
Kawhi Leonard $18,868,626
Demarcus Cousins $18,063,850
Draymond Green $16,400,000
Khris Middleton $14,100,000

I would say the Celtics are paying 50%-100% premium for the player Hayward was compared to the contracts of comprable players.


Re: Hayward’s Screws removed
« Reply #83 on: May 31, 2018, 02:45:33 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Not sure if this was linked but apparently hayward has some pain from the screws.  But everything should be good now.

https://nesn.com/2018/05/danny-ainge-explains-why-gordon-hayward-needed-second-ankle-procedure/
How dare he disclose confidential medical information!

Also, what does this even mean?
Quote
“(The Celtics’ medical staff) felt like it was being caused by the hardware, and they just took the hardware and did some testing on it, and tested that his left foot is even stronger than his right foot when that pain is alleviated. So, they just felt like they were going to get the hardware out.
"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."

Re: Hayward’s Screws removed
« Reply #84 on: May 31, 2018, 02:50:04 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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Ah another straight dollar for dollar comparison in salaries without acknowledging the different cap values at the time they were signed or years of service differences. Always a fun conversation.

Bonus points for presenting a selective list! (of which 6 were signed before the cap spike in 2016-2017)

Re: Hayward’s Screws removed
« Reply #85 on: May 31, 2018, 02:53:29 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

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I think people are forgetting how good Hayward is in all aspects of the game: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEt8p6a6uXU


I actually think the exact opposite. It seems a lot of fans have expectations that are too high, mostly because of the "max contract" label. Hayward will be the fourth best player on the team, behind Irving, Tatum, and then Brown. I fully expect Hayward to be a team contributor, make the right play, and play within the framework of the schemes. But if fans criticize Al Horford for "not being a max guy" then Hayward is going to get the criticism even worse. I see a lot of fans penciling Hayward in for 20ppg next season. They are going to be in for a big surprise. I'm fully expecting him to average about 13, 3, and 3 while playing about 26 minutes a game.

Are those expectations based upon any kind of reality?



Yes, they are. For his career, he only averages 15.6ppg. He is now returning from a left tibia fracture/dislocation while playing on a team that has many scoring options. Under these circumstances, why is it unrealistic to believe he will average 13ppg?

Because his production has increased every year of his career. He’s not a 15.6ppg scorer. Rather, he was a Western Conference All-Star averaging 22 ppg, comparing favorably to Paul George and Jimmy Butler.

Marcus Morris scores 13 ppg this year. Hayward is obviously more talented and accomplished than Morris, so it seems a bit odd that Hayward wouldn’t exceed that projection.


Fair enough. But, his numbers increased as he became the number one option. His efficiency, however, didn't necessarily increase. Given Hayward's mediocre efficiency, I cannot see how the offense would benefit by giving him more shots than either Tatum or Brown, who have both proven to be more efficient (Tatum especially). Not the end all be all, but Tatum had a higher TS% as a rookie than every season Hayward ever had except 2016-2017. Last season, Jaylen Brown's TS% was .562. Hayward's career TS% is literally .563. Also, take into consideration that Brown's TS% is adversely affected with poor FT shooting. If he can improve his FTs, his TS% should only continue to rise. I am not saying that Hayward is a bad player. Rather, I am saying I do not see the substantial evidence to declare him a better player than either Brown or Tatum, or a player deserving of more shots/touches, especially when he is coming off a significant injury.

Hayward is not a bad player, however he IS a bad contract.  I hope they can find a way to get out from under it.


Hayward is only a bad contract if you factor in him making $30 million on a broken leg. His contract is market rate for the player he was (and hopefully continues to be after he recovers)

There's always this odd idea that floats around here that if a player isn't a super-duper star they aren't worthy of a max, but that isn't true. He makes about as much as Lebron and Curry because those guys are massively underpaid, not because he's overpaid.

Salary for 2017-2018 per espn

He makes about as much as Lebron and Curry because he's the 4th highest paid player in the NBA.

Here's his salary compared to some other names that have been tossed around on #Celticsblog over the years.

Hayward: $29,727,900
Kevin Durant $25,000,000
Bradley Beal $23,775,506
Giannis Antetokounmpo $22,471,910
Victor Oladipo $21,000,000
Paul George $19,508,958
Jimmy Butler $19,301,070
Kawhi Leonard $18,868,626
Demarcus Cousins $18,063,850
Draymond Green $16,400,000
Khris Middleton $14,100,000

I would say the Celtics are paying 50%-100% premium for the player Hayward was compared to the contracts of comprable players.
terrible comparison

-Durant took an unfair discount to keep iggy on the team

-Hayward is better than Beal
-Paul George was still on his older cheap contract

Re: Hayward’s Screws removed
« Reply #86 on: May 31, 2018, 02:55:45 PM »

Offline Monkhouse

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Not sure if this was linked but apparently hayward has some pain from the screws.  But everything should be good now.

https://nesn.com/2018/05/danny-ainge-explains-why-gordon-hayward-needed-second-ankle-procedure/
How dare he disclose confidential medical information!

Also, what does this even mean?
Quote
“(The Celtics’ medical staff) felt like it was being caused by the hardware, and they just took the hardware and did some testing on it, and tested that his left foot is even stronger than his right foot when that pain is alleviated. So, they just felt like they were going to get the hardware out.

Means that Kyrie is going to start teaching Hayward advanced left hand finishes ^^
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Re: Hayward’s Screws removed
« Reply #87 on: May 31, 2018, 03:20:16 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Not sure if this was linked but apparently hayward has some pain from the screws.  But everything should be good now.

https://nesn.com/2018/05/danny-ainge-explains-why-gordon-hayward-needed-second-ankle-procedure/
How dare he disclose confidential medical information!

Also, what does this even mean?
Quote
“(The Celtics’ medical staff) felt like it was being caused by the hardware, and they just took the hardware and did some testing on it, and tested that his left foot is even stronger than his right foot when that pain is alleviated. So, they just felt like they were going to get the hardware out.

Means that Kyrie is going to start teaching Hayward advanced left hand finishes ^^
More like advanced left foot finishes.

<insert obligatory Rex Ryan joke here>
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Re: Hayward’s Screws removed
« Reply #88 on: May 31, 2018, 08:50:51 PM »

Offline cman88

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To be honest, I would expect pretty much everyone on the team's stats to drop/improve a small amount due to the amount of mouths to feed on the team. Its the same reason when the big 3 was formed PP/KG/Ray allens stats took a hit.

But the efficency may go up because teams really may not be able to key in on one or two guys because every player can shoot the 3 or drive to the hoop. Early in the season, teams would bracket kyrie...cant do that with Hayward and now that Brown/Tatum are threats. I also expect brad to take Hayward or Tatum out early and then sub them in with the bench...that way there is always a starter on the floor to provide scoring/settle down the offense

I mean think about this....every poor shot that we saw Rozier/Morris/smart take in game 7 will now be taken by Kyrie/Hayward...thats something to be excited about.

Re: Hayward’s Screws removed
« Reply #89 on: May 31, 2018, 08:59:39 PM »

Offline bellerephon

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At this point Hayward/Tatum/Brown are all very close offensively, but their games are different and I think they are going to work very well together.

Next season is going to be fun! Can't wait. We should be both an offensive and defensive juggernaut.
I certainly don't agree that those three are close offensively. Brown and Tatum might be close, but Hayward, if healthy, is distinctly better than the other two. Now, Tatum has shown some signs that he is on a track to be a star, and maybe he will get there as soon as next year, but as of now, Hayward is clearly better.