Hayward’s Screws removed

[KungPoweChicken]

Also TS% is my least favorite stat along with per36, (people use this on players that barely average 10 MPG..) It always unfairly rates free throw highly..

That being said, Hayward shot 39.8% 3P, and got to the line 5 times per game. Something that Tatum will eventually get past in 1-2 years, but I'm not convinced that he will score a lot either. Our offense relies on moving and sharing the ball.

Agree about the ball movement part. However, while Hayward's career 3pt percentage and FT percentage are a very respectable .368 and .82, these are both numbers Tatum eclipsed as a rookie.

Why do you keep using his career average numbers instead of his most recent season (or two)? Hayward is not the same player he was when he came into the league, so why include those years (unless your goal is just to deflate his numbers)?

Because he is turning 29 this season, playing on a team with three bonafide scorers, and is coming off a significant injury. Considering all that, do you think it's reasonable to simply use Hayward's career season numbers on bad Utah teams where he was the number one option?

As an analogy, when Kevin Love was in his prime with the Wolves he was averaging 26ppg. His four seasons with the Cavs, however, he has averaged 17.1ppg with 19.0ppg the highest in 2016-17. Should we expect K-Love to start putting up 25ppg next season if he is still playing on the Cavs with the same team dynamic?

To address the second half you added: where did you get that idea? I would take his most recent season (or two), and say that, in the same role next year, he should be averaging about 18ppg. Taking his career average (which includes his 11 ppg rookie season and 25ppg monster seasons) doesn't make any sense

If Lebron leaves and his role changes, I'd use the past couple of years as a baseline and guess from there.

I honestly have no clue what your basing my apparent Kevin Love projection of 25ppg from

That's what I am saying. In 2013-14 Love averaged 26.1ppg for the Wolves. The following year on the Cavs he averaged 16.4ppg, nearly a 10ppg decrease. According to your logic, you would have been expecting Love to average 26.1ppg on the Cavs for the 2014-15 season because those were his stats the prior year.

[Fafnir]

What statistical argument can one make for Hayward being a better, more efficient scorer and shot creator than Tatum? On overall game, I would certainly give the nod to Hayward in terms of offensive facilitation.

He's scored more points than Tatums, both in total and per possession, all while shouldering a higher usage and offensive role (similar TOs way more assists).

He also did so more efficiently his last year than Tatum did this year.

I mean just look at the BasketBallReference pages for both players its all right there.

Yes, in Hayward's career season, he was "slightly" more efficient and averaged more points than Tatum on a mediocre Utah team. A Utah team that made the divisional round without him. This is true.

If you think the difference is slight, then there isn't much to discuss because the difference in offensive efficiency/usage/production/pace was huge.

Hayward was better than Tatum this year the prior two years as well, and in his career year was an all-star in the West which is loaded at forward.

Tatum looks to be a HoF caliber player based on projecting improvement onto a great rookie campaign. He's not already all-star caliber.

[Vermont Green]

You really cannot dispute how great of a player Hayward is... And he just has to play like Klay Thompson on C&S opportunities, and play make occasionally.. His numbers will be back to normal in 1-2 years of full recovery.

I think Klay Thompson is a pretty good comp or expectation for a fully recovered Hayward.  Thompson has averaged 20+ ppg for 4 seasons while shooting between 41% and 44% 3P%.   I don't know the usage for him but he has been averaging between 16 and 17.5 shots during the last 4 years.  Not sure Hayward gets that may shots on the Celtics but hopefully he can maintain a similar efficiency level.  Let's see if he can average 16 ppg on 12-13 shots.  If he can combine that with good to very good defense, that would be awesome, maybe not $31M awesome (Thompson will be at $19M next season in last year of his contract) but still awesome.

Hayward, his last 3 Utah seasons, was more in the range of 14-16 shots to get 19-20 ppg so very efficient as well.  Hayward got in the range of 6.0 FTA during that span while Thompson was more like 3.0 or less (1.8 last season).

[Fafnir]

Another thing to remember with Haywards numbers is the Utah Jazz have been and still are the slowest team in the NBA.

If he's fully right he should be around Klay's shots just because the C's aren't such a slow team. (they shot close to similar amounts per 100 possessions)

[KungPoweChicken]

What statistical argument can one make for Hayward being a better, more efficient scorer and shot creator than Tatum? On overall game, I would certainly give the nod to Hayward in terms of offensive facilitation.

He's scored more points than Tatums, both in total and per possession, all while shouldering a higher usage and offensive role (similar TOs way more assists).

He also did so more efficiently his last year than Tatum did this year.

I mean just look at the BasketBallReference pages for both players its all right there.

Yes, in Hayward's career season, he was "slightly" more efficient and averaged more points than Tatum on a mediocre Utah team. A Utah team that made the divisional round without him. This is true.

If you think the difference is slight, then there isn't much to discuss because the difference in offensive efficiency/usage/production was huge.

Hayward was better than Tatum this year the prior two years as well, and in his career year was an all-star in the West which is loaded at forward.

Tatum looks to be a HoF caliber player based on projecting improvement onto a great rookie campaign. He's not already all-star caliber.

Why do you think Hayward's usage rate on a mediocre Utah team as the primary option is incredibly important? Compare Hayward's 3pt shooting and TS% to Tatum's. Hayward is not a more efficient basketball player.

[Fafnir]

Why do you think Hayward's usage rate on a mediocre Utah team as the primary option is incredibly important? Compare Hayward's 3pt shooting and TS% to Tatum's. Hayward is not a more efficient basketball player.

Because the game gets harder when you're relied upon to create and score more. It takes more energy and you draw more defensive focus. It is more impressive to score 30 points per 100 possessions than 22 in 100 at the similar percentages etc.

There are other aspects to offensive basketball than shooting. I described them to you in prior posts. You clearly don't want to talk about them, so we're done here.

[KungPoweChicken]

You really cannot dispute how great of a player Hayward is... And he just has to play like Klay Thompson on C&S opportunities, and play make occasionally.. His numbers will be back to normal in 1-2 years of full recovery.

I think Klay Thompson is a pretty good comp or expectation for a fully recovered Hayward.  Thompson has averaged 20+ ppg for 4 seasons while shooting between 41% and 44% 3P%.   I don't know the usage for him but he has been averaging between 16 and 17.5 shots during the last 4 years.  Not sure Hayward gets that may shots on the Celtics but hopefully he can maintain a similar efficiency level.  Let's see if he can average 16 ppg on 12-13 shots.  If he can combine that with good to very good defense, that would be awesome, maybe not $31M awesome (Thompson will be at $19M next season in last year of his contract) but still awesome.

Hayward, his last 3 Utah seasons, was more in the range of 14-16 shots to get 19-20 ppg so very efficient as well.  Hayward got in the range of 6.0 FTA during that span while Thompson was more like 3.0 or less (1.8 last season).

If your expectation is Klay Thompson, you are going to be disappointed. Thompson's TS% for the past four seasons in a row has been .590 or higher. He has literally never had a season where he has shot less than 40% from 3pt range. For comparison, Hayward has never had a season where he has shot 40% from 3pt (outside of his rookie season where he only attempted 74). He has obviously never matched Thompson's TS%. Thompson is one of the best shooters in the game. Hayward is not. Hayward is a facilitator and a good shooter, not great. Consider the fact that Hayward has only had two seasons where he shot a better percentage from 3pt than Jaylen Brown this past season on at least 100 attempts per season. Does this mean Jaylen Brown is the next Klay Thompson or Steph Curry?

[Monkhouse]

Also TS% is my least favorite stat along with per36, (people use this on players that barely average 10 MPG..) It always unfairly rates free throw highly..

Wait what?

I get people misusing per-36 (though I think that's overblown a little too, as it's more of small but loud pro-rookie contingent that misuses it, most use it properly IMO).

But TS%?  I think that's one of the best stats.  There's no overrating free throws, free throws matter a lot.  If you get to the line a lot (or don't) and how that matters a ton in how effective of a scorer you are.  Can you expound on that a little?

In terms of why I specifically dislike TS%, it is because it weighs free throws too much in my opinion. I think a better idea is to look at EFG% and FT% independently to get better insight on how someone is getting their points and what their strength is in terms of efficiently scoring the ball.

[Fafnir]

Also TS% is my least favorite stat along with per36, (people use this on players that barely average 10 MPG..) It always unfairly rates free throw highly..

Wait what?

I get people misusing per-36 (though I think that's overblown a little too, as it's more of small but loud pro-rookie contingent that misuses it, most use it properly IMO).

But TS%?  I think that's one of the best stats.  There's no overrating free throws, free throws matter a lot.  If you get to the line a lot (or don't) and how that matters a ton in how effective of a scorer you are.  Can you expound on that a little?

In terms of why I specifically dislike TS%, it is because it weighs free throws too much in my opinion. I think a better idea is to look at EFG% and FT% independently to get better insight on how someone is getting their points and what their strength is in terms of efficiently scoring the ball.

Do points scored from the free throw line count for less? What am I missing here.

The rate at which you can generate free throws is a very important part of the picture.

[KungPoweChicken]

Also TS% is my least favorite stat along with per36, (people use this on players that barely average 10 MPG..) It always unfairly rates free throw highly..

Wait what?

I get people misusing per-36 (though I think that's overblown a little too, as it's more of small but loud pro-rookie contingent that misuses it, most use it properly IMO).

But TS%?  I think that's one of the best stats.  There's no overrating free throws, free throws matter a lot.  If you get to the line a lot (or don't) and how that matters a ton in how effective of a scorer you are.  Can you expound on that a little?

In terms of why I specifically dislike TS%, it is because it weighs free throws too much in my opinion. I think a better idea is to look at EFG% and FT% independently to get better insight on how someone is getting their points and what their strength is in terms of efficiently scoring the ball.

TS% is probably the best stat to determine a given player's efficiency to shoot the basketball.

[KungPoweChicken]

Why do you think Hayward's usage rate on a mediocre Utah team as the primary option is incredibly important? Compare Hayward's 3pt shooting and TS% to Tatum's. Hayward is not a more efficient basketball player.

Because the game gets harder when you're relied upon to create and score more. It takes more energy and you draw more defensive focus. It is more impressive to score 30 points per 100 possessions than 22 in 100 at the similar percentages etc.

There are other aspects to offensive basketball than shooting. I described them to you in prior posts. You clearly don't want to talk about them, so we're done here.

Okay that's fine. But if Gordon Hayward has the highest usage rate on the team, then that's a bad to mediocre team at best. That's probably why, excluding his rookie season where he only started 17 games, he made the playoffs one time.

[Fafnir]

That bad to mediocre Jazz team won 2 less games (51) than the Celtics (53) last year and had the 5th best SRS in the NBA that year (better than the Celtics).

That SRS was better than this year's Celtics too for what its worth (cross year comparisons aren't always the best rubric)

[KungPoweChicken]

That bad to mediocre Jazz team won 2 less games (51) than the Celtics (53) last year and had the 5th best SRS in the NBA that year (better than the Celtics).

That SRS was better than this year's Celtics too for what its worth (cross year comparisons aren't always the best rubric)

Hayward played on one Utah team that made the playoffs in which he was a starting player. You can slice that however many ways you want to.

[Vermont Green]

You really cannot dispute how great of a player Hayward is... And he just has to play like Klay Thompson on C&S opportunities, and play make occasionally.. His numbers will be back to normal in 1-2 years of full recovery.

I think Klay Thompson is a pretty good comp or expectation for a fully recovered Hayward.  Thompson has averaged 20+ ppg for 4 seasons while shooting between 41% and 44% 3P%.   I don't know the usage for him but he has been averaging between 16 and 17.5 shots during the last 4 years.  Not sure Hayward gets that may shots on the Celtics but hopefully he can maintain a similar efficiency level.  Let's see if he can average 16 ppg on 12-13 shots.  If he can combine that with good to very good defense, that would be awesome, maybe not $31M awesome (Thompson will be at $19M next season in last year of his contract) but still awesome.

Hayward, his last 3 Utah seasons, was more in the range of 14-16 shots to get 19-20 ppg so very efficient as well.  Hayward got in the range of 6.0 FTA during that span while Thompson was more like 3.0 or less (1.8 last season).

If your expectation is Klay Thompson, you are going to be disappointed. Thompson's TS% for the past four seasons in a row has been .590 or higher. He has literally never had a season where he has shot less than 40% from 3pt range. For comparison, Hayward has never had a season where he has shot 40% from 3pt (outside of his rookie season where he only attempted 74). He has obviously never matched Thompson's TS%. Thompson is one of the best shooters in the game. Hayward is not. Hayward is a facilitator and a good shooter, not great. Consider the fact that Hayward has only had two seasons where he shot a better percentage from 3pt than Jaylen Brown this past season on at least 100 attempts per season. Does this mean Jaylen Brown is the next Klay Thompson or Steph Curry?

That is correct that Thompson is a very high percentage shooter and incredibly consistent over the last 4 years or so.  But I was looking at points per shot attempt as a measure of scoring efficiency (different from shooting efficiency).  Hayward gets more points per shot attempt based on getting more FTA.  That implies that Thompson is taking more uncontested shots and Hayward more contested shots (or at least Thompson is less contested on his shots as he is not getting fouled nearly as much).

I don't think it is unreasonable to expect that Hayward may improve both his scoring and shooting efficiency on the Celtics.  He will be in a situation more like Thompson's, not the primary scoring option that is the primary focus of the defense.  Not the guy that forces the shot at the end of the shot clock.

And no, I am not expecting Hayward to take the same volume of shots that Thompson takes but I think his shooting efficiency may be similar and his scoring efficiency better based on more FTA.  And keep in mind that FTA help in more ways than just the points you get.  Fouls get players in foul trouble and get teams in the bonus faster.

[BitterJim]

Also TS% is my least favorite stat along with per36, (people use this on players that barely average 10 MPG..) It always unfairly rates free throw highly..

That being said, Hayward shot 39.8% 3P, and got to the line 5 times per game. Something that Tatum will eventually get past in 1-2 years, but I'm not convinced that he will score a lot either. Our offense relies on moving and sharing the ball.

Agree about the ball movement part. However, while Hayward's career 3pt percentage and FT percentage are a very respectable .368 and .82, these are both numbers Tatum eclipsed as a rookie.

Why do you keep using his career average numbers instead of his most recent season (or two)? Hayward is not the same player he was when he came into the league, so why include those years (unless your goal is just to deflate his numbers)?

Because he is turning 29 this season, playing on a team with three bonafide scorers, and is coming off a significant injury. Considering all that, do you think it's reasonable to simply use Hayward's career season numbers on bad Utah teams where he was the number one option?

As an analogy, when Kevin Love was in his prime with the Wolves he was averaging 26ppg. His four seasons with the Cavs, however, he has averaged 17.1ppg with 19.0ppg the highest in 2016-17. Should we expect K-Love to start putting up 25ppg next season if he is still playing on the Cavs with the same team dynamic?

To address the second half you added: where did you get that idea? I would take his most recent season (or two), and say that, in the same role next year, he should be averaging about 18ppg. Taking his career average (which includes his 11 ppg rookie season and 25ppg monster seasons) doesn't make any sense

If Lebron leaves and his role changes, I'd use the past couple of years as a baseline and guess from there.

I honestly have no clue what your basing my apparent Kevin Love projection of 25ppg from

That's what I am saying. In 2013-14 Love averaged 26.1ppg for the Wolves. The following year on the Cavs he averaged 16.4ppg, nearly a 10ppg decrease. According to your logic, you would have been expecting Love to average 26.1ppg on the Cavs for the 2014-15 season because those were his stats the prior year.

So, you're ignoring what I'm actually saying.

When a player has a change in role, you don't ignore it, you take it into consideration. But that doesn't mean using their career average. Changing the role you have isn't going to make you the average of all your seasons in the NBA, it will make you the player you were, but in a different role.

If that involves being a 2nd or 3rd option instead of 1st, your USG% and points will likely go down, while efficiency increases. If that means being the 1st option instead of the 2nd or 3rd, your USG% and points will likely go up, while your efficiency decreases.