Expectations for Tatum next year?

[cman88]

Generally players make a big jump in their rookie years to sophmore. Jaylen took a HUGE jump from barely finding the court to being one of our top scoring options.

So, what are our expectations from Tatum who lead the Team in scoring during the playoffs and flashed super-star potential? Hopefully one thing he realized in this playoffs is that he doesn't need to be passive as he is practically un-guardable when he wants to get his shot off.

are there any examples of rookies who showed all-star potential and the kind of jumps they made in their 2nd seasons?

[CelticsElite]

League mvp

[Sophomore]

League mvp

Galactic MVP.

[SparzWizard]

Be a Kevin Durant type player.

[Th3M2n]

I really don't expect more from him stat-wise.  As Kyrie and Gordon will take up the slack from the others and be option 1 and option 2 when on the floor.  Jason will be option 3....but the games he has "it" going...we will see higher total scoring.

[bdm860]

are there any examples of rookies who showed all-star potential and the kind of jumps they made in their 2nd seasons?

Sure, there's as many examples as you want there to be:

Baseline:
Tatum Per-36 @ 19: 16.4ppg, 5.9rpg, 1.9apg, 58.6% TS, 15.3 PER

The great:
LeBron Per-36 @ 19: 19.1ppg, 5.0rpg, 5.4apg, 48.8% TS, 18.3 PER
LeBron Per-36 @ 20: 23.1ppg, 6.2rpg, 6.1apg, 55.4% TS, 25.7 PER

Durant Per-36 @ 19: 21.1ppg, 4.5rpg, 2.5apg, 51.9% TS, 15.8 PER
Durant Per-36 @ 20: 23.3ppg, 6.0rpg, 2.6apg, 57.7% TS, 20.8 PER

The very good:
Carmelo Per-36 @ 19: 20.7ppg, 6.0rpg, 2.7apg, 50.9% TS, 17.6 PER
Carmelo Per-36 @ 20: 21.5ppg, 5.9rpg, 2.7apg, 52.6% TS, 16.7 PER
Carmelo Per-36 @ 21: 26.0ppg, 4.8rpg, 2.6apg, 56.3% TS, 22.0 PER
*took Carmelo that 3rd year to really step up from his rookie year performance level

The still not there yet:
Wiggins Per-36 @ 19: 16.8ppg, 4.5rpg, 2.1apg, 51.7% TS, 13.9 PER
Wiggins Per-36 @ 20: 21.2ppg, 3.7rpg, 2.1apg, 54.3% TS, 16.5 PER

They looked promising at the time:
Deng Per-36 @ 19: 15.4ppg, 7.0rpg, 2.9 apg, 49.6% TS, 14.2 PER
Deng Per-36 @ 20: 15.4ppg, 7.1apg, 2.0apg, 51.7% TS, 15.8 PER

Beasley Per-36 @ 20: 20.1ppg, 7.9rpg, 1.5apg, 52.8% TS, 17.2 PER
Beasley Per-36 @ 21: 17.9ppg, 7.7rpg, 1.5apg, 50.5% TS, 16.1 PER

Tyreke Per-36 @ 20: 19.5ppg, 5.1rpg, 5.6apg, 52.9% TS, 18.2 PER
Tyreke Per-36 @ 20: 17.3ppg, 4.7rpg, 5.5apg, 48.2% TS, 14.4 PER


And Beasley, Deng, Carmelo were actually on playoff teams that first year.


Usually, I would think an optimistic bump would be a 4-5% increase in TS%, as the player becomes more confident in there game, learns better shot selection, how to get to the line, etc, but Tatum already has a ridiculous 58.6% TS!  If he can lift that by a couple of points, that would be amazing.

Hopefully an increase in FTA.

Would love to see an uptick in assists.

It will definitely be interesting to see how it all blends together with Hayward and Irving and a better Brown.

[Bobshot]

Tatum is gonna be a superstar. Pencil him into the starting lineup next season, along with Horford, Irving and Haywood. The other starter will depend on the matchups.

The money finally gets to play together.

[jpotter33]

With some beefing up, I don’t think leading the Celtics in scoring is off the table. I could see both Kyrie and Tatum averaging in the low 20s with Hayward in the high teens, Brown in the mid to high teens, and Al right around 10 per game with fewer shots.

[Stig]

Stats wise, I expect 18p 6r 3a, with better shooting percentage. Hayward probably won’t be 100% until all star break, so Tatum will get plenty of shots, with Irving on the floor he should have more open looks too.

If Hayward and Irving are not on the team, I’d see him getting 22p easily.

[BitterJim]

I don't know about what he'll average stat-wise, but I expect him to become more of a go-to guy.  The type of player that you can just give the ball to down the stretch when you really need a bucket.

[kozlodoev]

I don't know about what he'll average stat-wise, but I expect him to become more of a go-to guy.  The type of player that you can just give the ball to down the stretch when you really need a bucket.

The problem is we will have 3 guys in the starting lineup in Hayward, Irving and Tatum that aren't on the court for their defense. Not sure how well this is going to work out.

[PAOBoston]

He probably won't get the raw stats but should probably have insane efficiency next year (probably goes for all the starters). Stats wise, I don't think any the C's players will stand out. I figure Irving/ Hayward could be in low 20s/high teens. I see Brown/Tatum around the mid teens somewhere. Too many mouths to feed.

I think he needs to improve his strength and keep working on his 3. Improved strength will help with finishing at the rim and finishing through contact. His 3 ball wasn't as good in the 2nd half of the year so continued work on that will help.

[Sophomore]

are there any examples of rookies who showed all-star potential and the kind of jumps they made in their 2nd seasons?

Sure, there's as many examples as you want there to be:

Baseline:
Tatum Per-36 @ 19: 16.4ppg, 5.9rpg, 1.9apg, 58.6% TS, 15.3 PER

The great:
LeBron Per-36 @ 19: 19.1ppg, 5.0rpg, 5.4apg, 48.8% TS, 18.3 PER
LeBron Per-36 @ 20: 23.1ppg, 6.2rpg, 6.1apg, 55.4% TS, 25.7 PER

Durant Per-36 @ 19: 21.1ppg, 4.5rpg, 2.5apg, 51.9% TS, 15.8 PER
Durant Per-36 @ 20: 23.3ppg, 6.0rpg, 2.6apg, 57.7% TS, 20.8 PER

The very good:
Carmelo Per-36 @ 19: 20.7ppg, 6.0rpg, 2.7apg, 50.9% TS, 17.6 PER
Carmelo Per-36 @ 20: 21.5ppg, 5.9rpg, 2.7apg, 52.6% TS, 16.7 PER
Carmelo Per-36 @ 21: 26.0ppg, 4.8rpg, 2.6apg, 56.3% TS, 22.0 PER
*took Carmelo that 3rd year to really step up from his rookie year performance level

The still not there yet:
Wiggins Per-36 @ 19: 16.8ppg, 4.5rpg, 2.1apg, 51.7% TS, 13.9 PER
Wiggins Per-36 @ 20: 21.2ppg, 3.7rpg, 2.1apg, 54.3% TS, 16.5 PER

They looked promising at the time:
Deng Per-36 @ 19: 15.4ppg, 7.0rpg, 2.9 apg, 49.6% TS, 14.2 PER
Deng Per-36 @ 20: 15.4ppg, 7.1apg, 2.0apg, 51.7% TS, 15.8 PER

Beasley Per-36 @ 20: 20.1ppg, 7.9rpg, 1.5apg, 52.8% TS, 17.2 PER
Beasley Per-36 @ 21: 17.9ppg, 7.7rpg, 1.5apg, 50.5% TS, 16.1 PER

Tyreke Per-36 @ 20: 19.5ppg, 5.1rpg, 5.6apg, 52.9% TS, 18.2 PER
Tyreke Per-36 @ 20: 17.3ppg, 4.7rpg, 5.5apg, 48.2% TS, 14.4 PER


And Beasley, Deng, Carmelo were actually on playoff teams that first year.


Usually, I would think an optimistic bump would be a 4-5% increase in TS%, as the player becomes more confident in there game, learns better shot selection, how to get to the line, etc, but Tatum already has a ridiculous 58.6% TS!  If he can lift that by a couple of points, that would be amazing.

Hopefully an increase in FTA.

Would love to see an uptick in assists.

It will definitely be interesting to see how it all blends together with Hayward and Irving and a better Brown.

Given that high TS%, why is Tatum's PER so low?

[18isGREATERthan72]

are there any examples of rookies who showed all-star potential and the kind of jumps they made in their 2nd seasons?

Sure, there's as many examples as you want there to be:

Baseline:
Tatum Per-36 @ 19: 16.4ppg, 5.9rpg, 1.9apg, 58.6% TS, 15.3 PER

The great:
LeBron Per-36 @ 19: 19.1ppg, 5.0rpg, 5.4apg, 48.8% TS, 18.3 PER
LeBron Per-36 @ 20: 23.1ppg, 6.2rpg, 6.1apg, 55.4% TS, 25.7 PER

Durant Per-36 @ 19: 21.1ppg, 4.5rpg, 2.5apg, 51.9% TS, 15.8 PER
Durant Per-36 @ 20: 23.3ppg, 6.0rpg, 2.6apg, 57.7% TS, 20.8 PER

The very good:
Carmelo Per-36 @ 19: 20.7ppg, 6.0rpg, 2.7apg, 50.9% TS, 17.6 PER
Carmelo Per-36 @ 20: 21.5ppg, 5.9rpg, 2.7apg, 52.6% TS, 16.7 PER
Carmelo Per-36 @ 21: 26.0ppg, 4.8rpg, 2.6apg, 56.3% TS, 22.0 PER
*took Carmelo that 3rd year to really step up from his rookie year performance level

The still not there yet:
Wiggins Per-36 @ 19: 16.8ppg, 4.5rpg, 2.1apg, 51.7% TS, 13.9 PER
Wiggins Per-36 @ 20: 21.2ppg, 3.7rpg, 2.1apg, 54.3% TS, 16.5 PER

They looked promising at the time:
Deng Per-36 @ 19: 15.4ppg, 7.0rpg, 2.9 apg, 49.6% TS, 14.2 PER
Deng Per-36 @ 20: 15.4ppg, 7.1apg, 2.0apg, 51.7% TS, 15.8 PER

Beasley Per-36 @ 20: 20.1ppg, 7.9rpg, 1.5apg, 52.8% TS, 17.2 PER
Beasley Per-36 @ 21: 17.9ppg, 7.7rpg, 1.5apg, 50.5% TS, 16.1 PER

Tyreke Per-36 @ 20: 19.5ppg, 5.1rpg, 5.6apg, 52.9% TS, 18.2 PER
Tyreke Per-36 @ 20: 17.3ppg, 4.7rpg, 5.5apg, 48.2% TS, 14.4 PER


And Beasley, Deng, Carmelo were actually on playoff teams that first year.


Usually, I would think an optimistic bump would be a 4-5% increase in TS%, as the player becomes more confident in there game, learns better shot selection, how to get to the line, etc, but Tatum already has a ridiculous 58.6% TS!  If he can lift that by a couple of points, that would be amazing.

Hopefully an increase in FTA.

Would love to see an uptick in assists.

It will definitely be interesting to see how it all blends together with Hayward and Irving and a better Brown.

Given that high TS%, why is Tatum's PER so low?

Mostly due to his low assist totals.  He's an efficient scorer and a good rebounder.  In addition to working on his body this summer, and his likely improved recognition by referees allowing more FT's, I'd like to see Tatum work on his play making a little bit.

The Celtics strength as a team next year assuming largely the same roster will be having 5 guys on the floor who can shoot / pass / attack and switchability on defense.

[blink]

I wouldn't be surprised if both Tatum's and Brown's scoring drop just a bit next year, but our overall ppg go up quite a bit. 

I see us with (1) 20+ point scorer - Kyrie, and then (3) guys between 15-20 - Gordon / Tatum / Brown.  Al probably is more glue in that lineup with 12-14 ppg.

Tatum / Brown will be better next year, but the overall stats might not show it as much.