Just my 2 cents on the upcoming Marcus Smart RFA.
I view Marcus in the same vein as Tony Allen. An excellent heart and soul, defense first, hustle player. Also, this type of player is most valuable on a winning team. A losing team does not gain as much from having a Marcus Smart on their team.
From the players point of view, playing for a losing team, limits your ability to get a second big contract upon reaching free agency a second time. Because you become a forgotten man; excellent defense and hustle plays on a perennial loser will not translate to wins and therefore it does not translate to $$$ in FA. The hustle player at his second free agency would at most get the MLE. (Look at Tony Allen's contact numbers or other hustle players. Also consider would Marcus Smart have the same reputation if he isn't playing and making "winning plays" in the ECFs?)
According to Spotrac, there are 11 teams that can offer more than $10 million. Winning teams that would obtain the most value include the 76ers, Rockets, Jazz.
According to RealGM there are 7 teams with "projected" cap space over $10 million. Winning teams include 76ers and Indiana.
This does not mean that a team currently at the bottom of the standings will not see value in signing Smart and make him an offer. However, if Smart were smart and values the opportunity to have a more meaningful and more lucrative career he might consider signing with a current winner (Boston).
But let us consider the other winning teams - the 76ers.
For the 76ers to have cap space they need to renounce Reddick, Ilyasova and Belinelli. Unless SImmons and Fultz learn how to shoot over the summer, adding Smart to that mix in the back court IMO will cause more problems that it would solve. Therefore, PHI is out of the running, unless they throw big bucks at Marcus out of spite. I can see Philly trying to nab Baynes though.
Rockets will resign Paul and their cap space will be gone.
Indiana is a very interesting, depending on their cap room I can see them making an offer to Smart.
I think the Celtics make a 11-13 million/yr offer to Smart. which can be structured to allow cap room when needed for the Celtics. Consider a front loaded 3/36 (2019-21) plus a PO of 1/14 (2022), totaling 4/50. You can add a TO 1/16 (2023) bringing the deal, if all options are exercised, to 5/66.
Now a non-winning team may offer $16 million/yr totaling 3/48 or 4/64. However, that will be probably the last big payday for Marcus. But one cannot blame him for taking the cash upfront.
If he takes the Celtics 3/36 offer and then goes to free agency again, after 3 deep playoff runs which Smart makes winning plays, assuming he is healthy and a higher cap, a 26 years old Smart is looking at another 3 or 4 year offer of at least what he is getting offered now and probably higher 3/45 - 4/60. That would total at least 6/81 or 7/96 when adding the 2 contracts together.
If he goes the other route and ends up a MLE player he is looking at 6-7 million a year. He is looking at 3/22 offers, add that to 3/48 or 4/64 and that totals 6/70 or 7/86.
Adding it all up, financially he ends up with a bit more and has opportunity to play for a Championship contender if he chooses Boston.
Topic: The Smart Move (Read 701 times)