I think we’re missing a key point here... we’d rather draft next year. They’d rather draft this year. Basically any trades in which we give our sac pick for a pick in this draft make 0 sense for us. Why give any asset (Orlando will want it) to get a pick that we value less? This goes for all trades into this draft. It has to be a sitatuon where were not giving up sac19, which no team will agree to unless were giving up a premium asset (not Rozier... think Jaylen level premium). Bottom line, we’re not trading into this draft. All of these threads do not make sense.
Say we dealt Rozier, Sac 19 and #27 for #6.
Isn’t the #27 18-19 salary + Roziers 18-19 salary about the same as the salary of #6?
That’s a question not an argument, but if it’s the same $ doesn’t that mitigate our issues with 2018?
The key behind this being that Porter or Carter are better talents than next year’s crop and at positions of need. If we assume they’re special players and great fits here.
It's a bit tricky because draft picks have no trade value until they sign a contract. So the trade can be agreed on principle prior to signing contracts for the 2018 draft picks and then completed after signing. The SAC 19 draft pick will have 0 value, of course, because the trade will happen 1 year before the pick gets signed.
So if I did the math right:
#27 pick ($1,367,000)
2018 #6 ($4,019,600)
So, the trade works out, money wise, assuming they wait until after the picks have signed contracts.
The problem? The Celtics are giving up Rozier, a first rounder, and a pick that should be around #6 next year for the 6th pick this year. Rozier's production alone in a season in which we're expected to be favorites in the East is enough to say forget it. Also, Ainge has gone on record stating that he will never trade our own first rounders. I think that he plans to use his late first round draft picks as cheap bench players to keep costs down once we hit the luxury tax bill in 2019.
I don't see any way we trade into the 2018 NBA lottery that makes sense. It's either sacrificing too much up front with no great long term return (your scenario), or it prices us out of resigning Marcus Smart (like if we just trade a couple picks + SAC19 pick for 2018 #6).
Best chance to get into the 2018 NBA lottery is trade Kyrie Irving for the pick + expiring contract. Ainge would be a fool to give up a bird in the hand in a potential championship season.
I know that it's fun to theory craft, but this is really dead on arrival.