Game 1 was a fantastic effort. Lebron looked passive and his teammates did nothing.
But, historically, losing Game 1 on the road has made very little difference to Lebron teams. In fact, it’s almost an expectation at this point.
In Game 1, when LeBron is on the road, his teams have gone 2-10 straight-up. In all other road games LeBron is 56-36 (60.9%).
That stat is slightly outdated, but I believe it now stands at 3-12. So, the excuses about “feeling out” may have some validity. Overall, though, Lebron’s team wins the majority of series that open on the road; he’s 7-3 in such series since 2009.
Or, take his playoff record against the Bulls: 1-3 in Game 1, 15-2 in all other games. It’s like he needs a loss before he can go into full Lebron mode.
He’s beatable, but Game 1 means almost nothing. The Celts can’t let their guard down even a little.
Not that I think the C's should get cocky or underestimate LeBron, but I think that stat is skewed. It looks like it's taking LeBron's Game 1 record on the road (so when LeBron's team has the worse record) and then comparing it to all road playoff games (so when LeBron swept the 7th seeded C's in '15, it's counting the 2 road wins in Boston). Those are not comparable things.
Simple math check: 2-10 record means 12 series, the maximum amount of possible remaining road games is 36 (12 series * 3 remaining road games). So a 56-36 record isn't possible. Even if we considered both home and away games, then the total possible games is 72 (12*6).
According to what I see, LeBron has lost game 1 on the road 11 times (not including this Boston series). He's come back to win 5 of those series.
2006 vs DET, 2nd round, lost 3-4
2007 vs DET, ECF, won 4-2
2007 vs SAS, Finals, lost 0-4
2008 vs BOS, 2nd round, lost 3-4
2011 vs CHI, ECF, won 4-1
2012 vs OKC, Finals, won 4-1
2014 vs IND, ECF, won 4-2
2014 vs SAS, Finals, lost 1-4
2015 vs GS, Finals, lost 2-4
2016 vs GS, Finals, won 4-3
2017 vs GS Finals, lost 1-4
Total record of 30-22 after losing game 1 on the road (which is 30-33 after adding back in Game 1 loss).
Since 2011, it's 20-12 after losing game 1 on the road (which is 20-19 after adding back in Game 1 loss).
Not that the C's should take LeBron lightly, I just don't think that stat was right.