Big Lead Article: "Al Horford Has Become a Big Problem for the Celtics"

[nickagneta]

I am stupider for having read that. Just wasted 2 minutes of my life.

[gift]

I'm not going to worry about Horford until he's a free agent because by then he should be ready for a pay cut, which invalidates the criticism against him as a such a highly paid player. And until then, he's worth the contract he got based on 1) production vs. alternatives available at the time of signing him, 2) crucial role on team not reflected in traditional stats and 3) value as a player who contributed to getting hayward (and even if only slightly intrigued durant that summer).

I even expect his production to drop slightly the next couple of years and still think he was, is and will be worth this current contract. It's his next contract that will be the question.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

Those who have read the article have basically supported my initial thought: "Ummm, what is the Big Lead?"

[tarheelsxxiii]

Don't click it. But do mock it, it's pretty comical.

My favorite is using Horford's PER, which is already a problem, but then also understating it by 10 pts and just using straight Basketball Reference rankings with no filter for playing time, meaning over a dozen players with sub-100 minutes played are "better", including our own RJ Hunter being 5th best in the league despite not attempting a shot.

This is an unfounded slight to RJ...

[fairweatherfan]

I can't imagine how disheartening it'd be as a fan to have a DPOY candidate and All-Star as merely our fifth-best player 

Yeah, that's not real. He was a shoo-in for a while, because the Celtics had the best defense in the league and you need to pick someone to get the individual award as a team acknowledgement. But I don't think Horford is more deserving than, say, Marcus Smart. And you won't hear Smart's name in the DPOY conversation (and for a good reason).

I think this is getting into the disconnect between who is likely to contend for an award and who we think ought to be.  There's an argument that Smart's comparably useful - if we rely only on metrics there's even a pretty solid case for Baynes - but neither one of those guys will be getting many DPOY votes and Horford very likely will.  I don't think he'll win but I'd be surprised if he wasn't in the top 5.

And don't we still have the best defense in the league? The D-ratings I'm seeing still have us #1.

[kozlodoev]

I can't imagine how disheartening it'd be as a fan to have a DPOY candidate and All-Star as merely our fifth-best player 

Yeah, that's not real. He was a shoo-in for a while, because the Celtics had the best defense in the league and you need to pick someone to get the individual award as a team acknowledgement. But I don't think Horford is more deserving than, say, Marcus Smart. And you won't hear Smart's name in the DPOY conversation (and for a good reason).

I think this is getting into the disconnect between who is likely to contend for an award and who we think ought to be.  There's an argument that Smart's comparably useful - if we rely only on metrics there's even a pretty solid case for Baynes - but neither one of those guys will be getting many DPOY votes and Horford very likely will.  I don't think he'll win but I'd be surprised if he wasn't in the top 5.

And don't we still have the best defense in the league? The D-ratings I'm seeing still have us #1.

We do. That doesn't change my point -- he's a shoo-in for that vote almost by default. Not because he's all that outstanding defensively, but because he's the presumed captain of the top defense in the league. He's a fine player and a defensive asset, but any sort of serious consideration for DPOY? Please.

I'm sure he'll get votes because of how well the team is doing... but I don't think that the team's defensive success hinges all that squarely on Al Horford.

[PhoSita]

He isn't the 11th best player in the league, but he has the 11th highest salary.  He is 31 and signed for huge dollars for 2 more years. 

This again is engaging in the same kind of shallow sophistry as one can find in click-bait articles like the one in the OP.

You know very well that many of the best, most valuable players in the league have their salaries artificially limited by the CBA, i.e. rookie contracts and limits on max salary based on years played in the league.  Others signed their current deals before taking their games up a few notches.

Horford, if anything, is one of the few star players in the league who is probably appropriately paid for his contributions.

He's the second best player and the unquestioned veteran leader and culture-setter on a team that is going to win 50+ games and finish with a top 3 record in the conference, likely top 5 in the league.

The only reason that may not seem as though it's "worth" max salary is because the CBA causes so many players to be extremely underpaid.

Furthermore, I'd rather have Horford than Smart + Monroe, and the salary cap situation can only fairly be assessed by looking at all of the player salaries together.  Al Horford's salary alone does not push the Celtics within shouting distance of the luxury tax.

[Moranis]

He isn't the 11th best player in the league, but he has the 11th highest salary.  He is 31 and signed for huge dollars for 2 more years. 

This again is engaging in the same kind of shallow sophistry as one can find in click-bait articles like the one in the OP.

You know very well that many of the best, most valuable players in the league have their salaries artificially limited by the CBA, i.e. rookie contracts and limits on max salary based on years played in the league.  Others signed their current deals before taking their games up a few notches.

Horford, if anything, is one of the few star players in the league who is probably appropriately paid for his contributions.

He's the second best player and the unquestioned veteran leader and culture-setter on a team that is going to win 50+ games and finish with a top 3 record in the conference, likely top 5 in the league.

The only reason that may not seem as though it's "worth" max salary is because the CBA causes so many players to be extremely underpaid.

Furthermore, I'd rather have Horford than Smart + Monroe, and the salary cap situation can only fairly be assessed by looking at all of the player salaries together.  Al Horford's salary alone does not push the Celtics within shouting distance of the luxury tax.

Of course I understand why Horford's salary is so large, but that still doesn't change the fact that he has the 11th highest salary in the league and is no where near the 11th best player in the league.  He is 24% of Boston's cap space this year and based on estimates of next year's cap will be close to 27%, and something like 25% in his final year (if he picks up the option).  Horford is a very good player, but he isn't worth that contract. 

[kozlodoev]

He isn't the 11th best player in the league, but he has the 11th highest salary.  He is 31 and signed for huge dollars for 2 more years. 

This again is engaging in the same kind of shallow sophistry as one can find in click-bait articles like the one in the OP.

You know very well that many of the best, most valuable players in the league have their salaries artificially limited by the CBA, i.e. rookie contracts and limits on max salary based on years played in the league.  Others signed their current deals before taking their games up a few notches.

Horford, if anything, is one of the few star players in the league who is probably appropriately paid for his contributions.

Right, but artificial or not, the fact remains that you can get better players for the same amount of dollars. That's not sophistry, that's good cap management. Sure, you can argue that he was the best on the market, but then you have to at least have the conversation of whether he's a max player because he was fortunate with when his FA offseason was, or because of where he belongs in the NBA percking order.

He's the second best player and the unquestioned veteran leader and culture-setter on a team that is going to win 50+ games and finish with a top 3 record in the conference, likely top 5 in the league.

Is he, though? What type of culture is he setting, exactly? That refrain became very popular after Garnett showed up here, but I haven't seen anyone verbalizing what that culture is precisely and why it's explicitly Al Horford that's responsible for it.

As for leadership... he was right there when the team plunged in an uncontrollable skid right before the allstar break, and I didn't notice Horford being willing or able to lead the team out of it.

Don't get me wrong, by all accounts he's a great guy, good player, makes a lot of positive plays when it's all said and done... but he's not the guy yo look at when the team is faltering and you need someone to right the ship and win you a game. And all that "unquestioned leader and culture-setter" talk is as a minimum largely overblown.

[Ogaju]

I think the worst thing about this garbage article, and let's be clear, it is garbage because it is based on garbage analysis, is that it will empower the "Horford Haters" on this blog to double down on their stance.

When you say "Horford Haters", do you mean the folk who think having Horford is better than not having him, but can't quite agree that he's worth the max contract, is the DPOY, and is as a matter of general principle the greatest thing since sliced bread?

Asking for a friend

Uh, maybe tell your friend to stop getting drunk before noon?

Also, sliced bread really ain't all that great.

This begs the question where did the saying the greatest thing since slice bread come from?

[kozlodoev]

I think the worst thing about this garbage article, and let's be clear, it is garbage because it is based on garbage analysis, is that it will empower the "Horford Haters" on this blog to double down on their stance.

When you say "Horford Haters", do you mean the folk who think having Horford is better than not having him, but can't quite agree that he's worth the max contract, is the DPOY, and is as a matter of general principle the greatest thing since sliced bread?

Asking for a friend

Uh, maybe tell your friend to stop getting drunk before noon?

Also, sliced bread really ain't all that great.

This begs the question where did the saying the greatest thing since slice bread come from?

It's a play off of a sliced bread ad from 1928 (commercial bread slicers were just coming en vogue back then).

[indeedproceed]

Counterpoint to big lead article: stop it. Just shut up and stop it.

[cman88]

why does it matter to us how much horford is paid? having horford made us a better team and helped us get Gordon Hayward and im sure attracted Kyrie Irving.

the problem is, people are looking at Horford to be the scoring addition to Kyrie...which he never was intended to be. That is why we have Gordon Hayward who unfortunately got injured. If you have haywards 20ppg, Kyries 20+ and jaylen/tatum scoring next year horford can sit back and do the dirty work like screens/passing/spacing the floor without people worrying about his lack of scoring

sure he doesnt put up states like other max players. But he is PERFECT for Brads system. and does so much to make the team better.

Its no coincidence that the team went from First round exit fodder to top #1-2 in the east with the addition of horford.

[green_bballers13]

Danny wanted to use Horford to convince Durant to come to Boston. He signed Horford at the market rate, then lost on Durant.

Horford is overpaid, as are many free agents.

I'm sure Danny would include him in a trade if one becomes available. Until then, he'll be a useful big man that helps run an offense.

[wiley]

dumb article that has nothing to do with the realities of NBA.