What's wrong with the Celtics?

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I originally posted this on my site, but wanted to get Celticsblog thoughts.
https://treytalkssports.com/2017/12/21/whats-wrong-with-the-celtics/

The Celtics are 4-4 over the last 8 games, and would be 3-5 without a 1-in-a-million heroic play by Terry Rozier against the Pacers.

What’s going on with them? Why are they struggling? Here are some possible reasons.

They are getting every team’s best shot
It’s simple competition. When average teams play top teams, it’s their Superbowl. It’s their game 7. If the Celtics decide to take a game off (Bulls), or if they don’t come to play hard (Jazz and Heat), they are not elite enough to still win. The Celtics, as currently constructed, can’t be lazy throughout the first half and then go on a 21 point run in the third quarter. They aren’t that good.

The Celtics were not as good as their early season record
They are not playing good basketball right now, but their early season record was not an indication that they were playing elite basketball. Starting the year 22-4 was exciting, but it was fool’s gold. They made a lot of timely winning plays in that stretch, but overall their offense was (and is) terrible. When other teams were trying to figure out their offense, the Celtics were aggressive on defense, which led to one of the best team defense beginnings to a season ever. They were playing more like an 16-10 team during that stretch, but they made timely plays. 4-4 is a rough patch, but it’s not that far off 16-10.

The Celtics are the 6th youngest team in the NBA
Four of the top five have losing records. The other one is hovering around .500. Its just not normal for young teams to win a lot of games. The fact that they still have found a way to 4-4 over the last 8 is surprising considering the success of other young teams.

The Celtics had huge roster turnover from last season
Every team has roster turnover. The players left from the Celtics roster last season were 3 rookie contracts who were trying to prove themselves and Al Horford, who had only been with the Celtics for one season. That means that everyone except Al Horford is trying to figure out their role on this team.

The Celtics have played more games than anyone
Some teams are tied with the Celtics, but no team has played more games than the Celtics. For instance, the Raptors, who have the second best record in the East, have played 5 less games than the Celtics.

That’s at least 5 more practice days to implement a system than the Celtics have had. This, in combination with the roster turnover, means …

The Celtics have one of the most basic systems in the NBA
Their offensive sets contain none of the off-ball wrinkles, elbow picks, or similar-slightly different actions from last year. Good teams can stall out the offense, which gives them momentum to make plays against our defense.

Coach Brad Stevens will add some complexity to the system when he gets practice days later in the season, but for now, expect struggle.

The Celtic roster was built around the concept of two elite play-makers playing next to Al Horford
Get well soon, Gordon. You have to rest Kyrie Irving sometimes. Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier can do some pick-and-roll action, but they can’t be primary play-makers consistently.

Marcus Smart is shooting well
Smart shoots a career 35% from the floor and 29% from 3 in wins. In losses, Smart shoots 36% from the floor and 31% from 3. This year, Marcus is shooting 32% and 29% in wins and 37% and 41 in losses.

Stop making your shots, Smart!

The Celtics miss Marcus Morris
His toughness, consistency, and ability to create decent shots would help our stalled out offense.

Three of the losses came in revenge games (and one more is probably coming)
Avery Bradley got his revenge in the first Pistons matchup. Crowder got his revenge the first game of the year. Now Olynyk got his revenge by playing the game of his life.

Conclusion
Excuses, excuses, am I right? Maybe they are just losing because they aren’t good. I mean, all teams have excuses like the ones above (except maybe the Smart thing), but they find ways to succeed. Why aren’t the Celtics?

There are probably even tougher days ahead this season. If Kyrie goes down for a few weeks, those could be ugly offensive games. What if Tatum hits the rookie wall? What if Brown’s struggles at the line start impacting his confidence from 3?

If there is a coach who can figure out how to harness this team into wins, its Coach Brad Stevens. Pressure produces diamonds. Struggles are good, because it ultimately will develop players into tough-minded basketball players.

[Roy H.]

Lack of effort, lazy basketball, not moving the ball.

[kozlodoev]

Lack of effort, lazy basketball, not moving the ball.

This. Which also gets exacerbated by the fact that we're about 2 competent player short in our rotation right now.

[Moranis]

Nothing.  Put it this way, if I told you Boston would lose Hayward 5 minutes into the season and be sitting at 26-8 and be the 1 seed at this point in the season, you would have taken it every single day and not given it a second thought.

[Rosco917]

Celtics really struggle when opposing teams get into a zone. The lack of reliable outside shooting besides Irving is a problem.

We're starting to pay the price for the loss of Hayward.

As good as they are, Brown and Tatum are very young and inconsistent. At most, you get flashes of what they'll be. 

And finally, the loss of Morris is big. He's a player that can score the ball, he has the ability to create his own shot and he has experience and toughness. Losing him along with us having such a young team is a problem.   

[tstorey_97]

Any team goes through "stretches", we are fans and don't like bad stretches. Our focus intensifies when the team goes .500 and we expect better.

In business, we were always careful to best manage a customer's expectations. 63-29 looked very doable didn't it? There was, however, no reason to expect 63-29 was there? A rebuilding team, loses there number one winger and had to figure how to play together anyway. Hayward was going to help an offensively challenged group and now they're more challenged.

Schedule will be a little more spaced after break, but, there are more tough teams mixed in.

Here you go:

Cav's are there
Raptors look tough (recent schedule has been easy)
Celtics should be right here
Wiz not sure yet

West with Warriors, Spurs and Rox are far better.

Celtics will fight to be in the top 5 in NBA...and that is "bad"? Need to turn over the roster again?

That opening run was, simply put, fantastic. Celtics are on the other side of that mountain now with 18 games over .500 to work with and pretty much the best defense in the league...just need to hit a couple more shotz each game.

[green_bballers13]

I'd say not much is wrong with the Celtics. they are in first place in the East while missing their big free agent signing. I think most people would have been OK with this result right after watching Hayward go down.

[Big333223]

The Celtics were not as good as their early season record

The Celtics are the 6th youngest team in the NBA

The Celtics had huge roster turnover from last season

The Celtics have played more games than anyone

The Celtic roster was built around the concept of two elite play-makers playing next to Al Horford

The Celtics miss Marcus Morris

I'd say it's a combination of these 6 things. They were obviously never a 72-win team. The streak was amazing but that was not going to be who this team was long term. As other teams have settled into their identities the Celtics' youth is showing a little more and they can't just win games on talent, which is related to both youth and the lack of consistency on the roster. Who knows what their record would be if the team that trained together in camp and preseason was the team playing now.

And yeah, Marcus Morris would've helped last night when the C's couldn't buy a shot in the 3rd quarter.

[PhoSita]

To echo some of the excellent sentiments in the original post:

- The early season defense was unsustainable.

- The early season defensive rebounding was unsustainable, given the personnel.

- Young players are going to be inconsistent, and the Celts are relying on a lot of young, inexperienced players.

- Opponents, on average, are rounding into shape, which somewhat cuts back on the advantage the Celts had early by appearing to be so cohesive ahead of schedule.

- The Celts bench is comprised almost entirely of hustle-hard defensively oriented guys.  Marcus Morris is the only one who can really create his own shot and turn bad possessions into made shots.

- If Hayward were healthy, that last issue would not be an issue; Brad could make sure that at least one of Kyrie, Hayward, and Horford were on the floor at all times.  Since that's not an option, bench units either have to try to make offense out of Marcus Smart - Daniel Theis pick and rolls (or similar), or they have to rely on Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown to create offense, which is a lot to ask of a young player.

[footey]

Lack of effort, lazy basketball, not moving the ball.

Bingo

[footey]

Nothing.  Put it this way, if I told you Boston would lose Hayward 5 minutes into the season and be sitting at 26-8 and be the 1 seed at this point in the season, you would have taken it every single day and not given it a second thought.

Yes but our trend is toward playing .500 ball at best. That is not what I would have expected. And yes, the hot start makes it even more unpalatable.

[Banner18now!]

This team thinks they are better than they really are. They seem to take quarters off and think they can flip a switch and they can't. Thy need to stay aggressive for 4 quarters. There is no way in hell the Miami Heat without 3 of their best players should come into Boston and win. The winning streak may have hurt them more than it helped. They need to take every team serious or they could lose to any team in the NBA. Need to start playing with an edge again. Need Morris back for bench scoring and hopefully Ainge can do something by the trade deadline with that 8 million exception to help bench scoring.

[droopdog7]

Water seeking its own level.  Nothing more, nothing less.

[Dino Pitino]

Nothing.  Put it this way, if I told you Boston would lose Hayward 5 minutes into the season and be sitting at 26-8 and be the 1 seed at this point in the season, you would have taken it every single day and not given it a second thought.

Yep!

[Moranis]

Nothing.  Put it this way, if I told you Boston would lose Hayward 5 minutes into the season and be sitting at 26-8 and be the 1 seed at this point in the season, you would have taken it every single day and not given it a second thought.

Yes but our trend is toward playing .500 ball at best. That is not what I would have expected. And yes, the hot start makes it even more unpalatable.

The Celtics are 10-6 since the win streak ended and are 6-4 in their last 10.  That isn't .500 ball.