Smart's Shot Selection

[smokeablount]

For reference, let's look at Smart vs. Andre Roberson.  Roberson is another young-ish defensive minded SG known to be offensively inept, who plays on a winning team.

-Roberson plays fewer minutes than smart, just under 20 mpg, and shoots 35.5% FG%.

Smart plays about 50% more minutes a game at about 31 mpg, and shoots 28.2% FG%.

But the crazy thing is comparing their # of shot attempts.  Roberson shoots 4.3 times a game, so his poor shooting is largely mitigated... Marcus Smart shoots 13 times a game (!)

So Smart plays 50% more than Roberson, but shoots 200% more shots, and shoots them much less efficiently, at a historically bad percentage. 

That's just unacceptable.  If Roberson takes 4 shots in 20 minutes, Marcus should rarely shoot more than 7-8 times in 30 minutes.  13 shots a game for a 28% shooter is insanity.

http://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/2530596/andre-roberson
http://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/2990992/marcus-smart

[droopdog7]

Looks like the other teams sort of know Marcus is not good as well.  I know trash talking happens every game, and for any reason but probably many people thinking it. 

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/marcus-smart-set-straight-bucks-rookie-kept-saying-trash-163026347.html

Good for marcus for making them at the end but that doesn't really make up for the bricks in my mind.

[CelticD]

I wouldn't rule out the idea that Brad is coaching him to be aggressive.  Maybe I am wrong but Brad has a strong belief in Marcus and the last thing he wants is for him to become tentative.  It was evident that our entire bench was pumped when he hit those big shots last night.  The luxury for Brad is that we have plenty of depth and he can pull Marcus if the shots are truly holding back the team on any given night.  More often than not Marcus ends up delivering with a big shot and is a net + while on the court.

I honestly believe Brad is telling Marcus to come out aggressive as soon as his number is called.

I believe you're correct and Brad is 100% complicit in Smart's poor shot selection as he continues to get playing time despite it. I was wondering if any other coach in NBA history has allowed this kinda thing to go on, but if I'm putting in the criteria properly...

The only players in NBA history to average at least 25 minutes a game, attempt at least 4 3's a game, and shoot below 30% from 3 are Marcus Smart, Lonzo Ball, Kyle Kuzma, and Dennis Smith.

The rooks have a combined 12 games in the NBA so you can pretty much dismiss them, which means Brad Stevens is the only coach in NBA history to let a rotation player shoot this historically bad. Smart also gets blamed for being a player that seems to ignore how bad his shot is, but that's wild.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&type=per_game&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=-1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&year_min=1947&year_max=2018&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&c1stat=fg3a_per_g&c1comp=gt&c1val=4&c2stat=fg3_pct&c2comp=lt&c2val=30&c3stat=mp_per_g&c3comp=gt&c3val=25&order_by=ws

[slamtheking]

I'm as big a fan of Smart and as anyone but have to admit his shooting isn't that great.  thought he finally put things together this preseason but once the season started, it's seems like he's back to his prior self (if not a worse version).   

-too many shots that are taken early in the shot clock --> he's not good enough right now to justify jacking up a 3 early in the clock AND when he's running the offense at point, he shouldn't be allowing the offense to dissolve into a desperation 3 as the clock's about to expire.
-not enough post play --> his attempt to go over Middleton last night aside, he showed last year and preseason he was a genuine asset on offense when he was in the post.  he could outmuscle guards that were covering him to go to the basket (where he was finishing well in preseason) or pass to a cutter or shooter open on the 3-line.
-not enough mid-range game.  I hate the idea that 2-pointers outside the paint are taboo in the league now.  Marcus can hit that shot.  I'd rather have him take a 16-18 footer he can make regularly than a 3 that he'll usually miss.

have to say, if he continues to play like this during the season as opposed to what he showed us in preseason, he's not going to cost us a fortune to retain on his next deal.  and yes, even if his offense doesn't improve this season, the rest of what he brings to the game is terrific and should be kept on the team if possible.

[Dino Pitino]

Brad is 100% complicit in Smart's poor shot selection

Does it trouble you guys that you are posturing yourselves as smarter at basketball than Brad Stevens and that you know better than him which shots Smart should be taking?

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

Is he really that bad at selecting shots, or are fans predisposed to expect bad shots and therefore see some average or even good shots as bad? I think the latter. He gets criticized for taking shots early in the clock, late in the clock, and even in the middle of the clock. There is no time at which some fans think it's a good time for him to take a shot, any shot.

If you're a bad shooter, as Smart is, there is, in fact, no time when it's good for him to take a shot (unless it's a layup or dunk).

Well, there it is. If he makes them, they're good decisions. He's not going to take fewer shots, Brad must be giving him the indefinite green light to gun away until he starts making them. His selection won't improve by subtraction, but by converting misses -- of the same variety and quality -- into makes.

I never said that they're good decisions if he makes them. My viewpoint is this: Smart's just not a good shooter, and since he hasn't improved significantly by this point, and is showing no signs of doing so, he's probably not going to, so he should stop taking so many outside shots. Brad may feel differently, which is perfectly fine, as he's the coach, but for my part, I'd like to see Marcus take a whole lot fewer outside shots.

[ImShakHeIsShaq]

Brad is 100% complicit in Smart's poor shot selection

Does it trouble you guys that you are posturing yourselves as smarter at basketball than Brad Stevens and that you know better than him which shots Smart should be taking?

While a great coach, don't pretend like he is always right. The only reason he lets him do it is because he helps in other ways, you take the good with the bad, just like he did with Sully.

[nickagneta]

Smart is the biggest disappointment on this team so far.

He is only a disappointment if you thought he was going to suddenly turn into a different player because he lost some weight. He is the same player that we drafted. His game, shot selection and shot efficiency has not changed.

[CelticD]

Brad is 100% complicit in Smart's poor shot selection

Does it trouble you guys that you are posturing yourselves as smarter at basketball than Brad Stevens and that you know better than him which shots Smart should be taking?

That's a strange conclusion to arrive to...at least from that part of my comment anyway. I don't think anybody here thinks they're a better basketball mind than Stevens, but if you're implying that I shouldn't criticize his coaching methods because I'm not doing what he does, then welcome to a sports forum.

[Chris22]

Smart is shooting his way out of a contract.
Although he did hit a couple of threes down the stretch yesterday.

[droopdog7]

Brad is 100% complicit in Smart's poor shot selection

Does it trouble you guys that you are posturing yourselves as smarter at basketball than Brad Stevens and that you know better than him which shots Smart should be taking?

That's a strange conclusion to arrive to...at least from that part of my comment anyway. I don't think anybody here thinks they're a better basketball mind than Stevens, but if you're implying that I shouldn't criticize his coaching methods because I'm not doing what he does, then welcome to a sports forum.

Theres pretty much only one way BS can fix smart; don’t  play him.  Any other coaching won’t make much of a difference because as I said, the issue isn’t shot selection as much as it is the fact that he’s a terrible offensive player.  I don’t think it in his nature to play differently and I’m sure BS is thinking big picture in his decisions.

[kozlodoev]

Brad is 100% complicit in Smart's poor shot selection

Does it trouble you guys that you are posturing yourselves as smarter at basketball than Brad Stevens and that you know better than him which shots Smart should be taking?

No.

Anything else you might be curious about?

[moiso]

I wouldn't rule out the idea that Brad is coaching him to be aggressive.  Maybe I am wrong but Brad has a strong belief in Marcus and the last thing he wants is for him to become tentative.  It was evident that our entire bench was pumped when he hit those big shots last night.  The luxury for Brad is that we have plenty of depth and he can pull Marcus if the shots are truly holding back the team on any given night.  More often than not Marcus ends up delivering with a big shot and is a net + while on the court.

I honestly believe Brad is telling Marcus to come out aggressive as soon as his number is called.

I believe you're correct and Brad is 100% complicit in Smart's poor shot selection as he continues to get playing time despite it. I was wondering if any other coach in NBA history has allowed this kinda thing to go on, but if I'm putting in the criteria properly...

The only players in NBA history to average at least 25 minutes a game, attempt at least 4 3's a game, and shoot below 30% from 3 are Marcus Smart, Lonzo Ball, Kyle Kuzma, and Dennis Smith.

The rooks have a combined 12 games in the NBA so you can pretty much dismiss them, which means Brad Stevens is the only coach in NBA history to let a rotation player shoot this historically bad. Smart also gets blamed for being a player that seems to ignore how bad his shot is, but that's wild.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&type=per_game&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=-1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&year_min=1947&year_max=2018&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&c1stat=fg3a_per_g&c1comp=gt&c1val=4&c2stat=fg3_pct&c2comp=lt&c2val=30&c3stat=mp_per_g&c3comp=gt&c3val=25&order_by=ws

Iverson did it.  Antoine did it on 3.9 attempts per game.  Rasheed came close.

[droopdog7]

I wouldn't rule out the idea that Brad is coaching him to be aggressive.  Maybe I am wrong but Brad has a strong belief in Marcus and the last thing he wants is for him to become tentative.  It was evident that our entire bench was pumped when he hit those big shots last night.  The luxury for Brad is that we have plenty of depth and he can pull Marcus if the shots are truly holding back the team on any given night.  More often than not Marcus ends up delivering with a big shot and is a net + while on the court.

I honestly believe Brad is telling Marcus to come out aggressive as soon as his number is called.

I believe you're correct and Brad is 100% complicit in Smart's poor shot selection as he continues to get playing time despite it. I was wondering if any other coach in NBA history has allowed this kinda thing to go on, but if I'm putting in the criteria properly...

The only players in NBA history to average at least 25 minutes a game, attempt at least 4 3's a game, and shoot below 30% from 3 are Marcus Smart, Lonzo Ball, Kyle Kuzma, and Dennis Smith.

The rooks have a combined 12 games in the NBA so you can pretty much dismiss them, which means Brad Stevens is the only coach in NBA history to let a rotation player shoot this historically bad. Smart also gets blamed for being a player that seems to ignore how bad his shot is, but that's wild.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&type=per_game&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=-1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&year_min=1947&year_max=2018&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&c1stat=fg3a_per_g&c1comp=gt&c1val=4&c2stat=fg3_pct&c2comp=lt&c2val=30&c3stat=mp_per_g&c3comp=gt&c3val=25&order_by=ws

Iverson did it.  Antoine did it on 3.9 attempts per game.  Rasheed came close.

Both Iverson and Sheed shot over 30% from 3.

[Big333223]

I really wanted to come into this thread and defend his shot selection but, in writing the post, I talked myself out of it. Last night he attempted 10 shots and 6 were 3's. Last year he took 9.5 shots a game and 4.2 of those (44%) were 3's. That's too much. I think if you look at, shot-for-shot a lot of them are good looks but with his strength he should be going to the basket more.

There was a play early in the game last night where the ball moved around the horn and landed to Smart and he took an awful looking 3 while Kyrie was standing wide open in the corner. One more pass would've been a fantastic look and Smart just didn't keep swinging the ball. Kyrie even stood there, frozen, for a moment to make the point. That was a bad one.