I have read/heard many, or to say too many times, about Big AL's future dip in production, more specifically in his last 2 years on this contract.
I understand that he will be a 32-year-old then, but I am truly convinced that he will still be productive, and an above average player. I feel like many fans and journalists are using the age/production projection too literate. Ok, we get it, players get older and their performance suffers due to their more pronounced physical limitations, the ones that are not as exposed when they are playing at a young age.
Can you please explain to me how/in what manner, will Al's offensive game suffer in the next 2 years?
1) First of all, he can pass, dribble, shot and rarely tries to do the things he can't. The first three skills (skillsets) mentioned are so rare to find combined in a single big man (try to do it, just to understand this uniqueness) that I would dismiss the idea that he won't be a positive factor on that end, excluding any severe injury. Also, these skills rarely drop off due to age.
2) Boris Diaw, a good comparison IMO (weaker shooter, about the same as a post-up threat on switches and a notch better passer on the move. He doesn't set the screens as well (in our favorite DH'S action) as AL. Also, he is slower and less athletic than Al (to say the least, he is built like a pear). Diaw is also worse rim protector and not as switchy big as Horford.
That same Boris Diaw (AL Horford lite) started on numerous playoffs/finals and was a key guy for the Spurs.
3) I will take into account that Horford now has (and will have) elite teammates, which will certainly make his game easier and more efficient/versatile. I foresee that trend for at least the next 5 years.
4) Defensively, Horford was always a smart defender, just not as physical. I don't see much change in that regard. His effort level is good, team defense will grind and he won't be an exception to that rule. Sure he is not Rudy Gobert or AD, but the point is that he won't drop defensively to crater like proportions, just a minor/if any dip.
5) I also expect Al on the minute diet, (minute fasting to be more exact. 2300/2400 mins played in the regular season) because Celtics will preserve him for April/June.
So, can someone explain to me how will Al drop so much within next 18-24 months to be ineffective? Is it because he will jump 0.8 inches less? or maybe cause he will run 100 meters 0.04 secs slower?
I will remind us that he was the best center in the eastern NBA playoffs last year and probably only Draymond Green (played much less the five position than in the previous 2 playoffs) did better than him overall in that period.
Would I pay Al as much as we did, the max? - yes, of course, he can play and other All-stars want to play with him (IT, GH, KI), he will age gracefully and is a calm locker room presence.
Topic: Horford - future production (Read 1355 times)