We can he can be a Robin but can he be a Batman?
That's the key question. The game is a lot easier with LBJ on your team.
Agreed. Roy, I respect your opinions and I'd say 8 or 9 times out of 10 I agree with you on whatever the discussion is, but I think in the case of this Kyrie trade, it's worth taking a step back.
This trade was a gamble and it relies a ton on luck and speculative forecasting. Luck about the Nets pick, luck with our Lakers pick conveying, speculation about IT's injury, and speculation that Kyrie will evolve and be better for us than he has been up to this point, which makes his past performance less important to focus on rigidly.
The Warriors got incredibly lucky after skillfully building their core, with the cap spiking and landing Durant. I think Danny has realized that his risk tolerance needed to increase if he wanted to be a true title contender, and he thinks really really highly of Kyrie, so he bit the bullet and knows that to some degree he needs luck to get where he needs to go, just like the Warriors needed luck to get where they are.
I would advise you obviously to express your opinion, but to acknowledge that this is a gamble that we don't have the data we need yet (even Danny doesn't). We should watch how the team starts to gel in the regular season and give it until at least this year's playoffs to see what we can expect of Kyrie moving forward.
I think he's at absolute worst a top 15 player, but I think if things break right, his offense alone could put him in the top 8. IT just wasn't that guy. Let's see the how the playoffs go and where the Nets pick lands, and hope that the LA pick conveys and that we have things to celebrate.
I appreciate the kind words, and I agree, Danny gambled.
I understand the gamble, but I disagree with it, for the following reasons:
1. IT and Kyrie are remarkably similar players. They're great at scoring, both are roughly average passers, and they're both terrible defensively. Not surprisingly, of all the players in NBA history, IT's first six seasons are most similar to Kyrie's first six years (source: bbr similarity scores).
The gamble is that Kyrie will improve, while IT will regress. That's far from a given, though. IT should have several years of his prime left, and he is an insanely hard worker. When you have an All-NBA player, it's a huge gamble to trade him for somebody who could be better, but also might not fit as well.
2. Injuries. We all know about IT's hip injury. It should be fine, but there are concerns about missed target dates, etc., and labrum tears can be slow to heal. But, in terms of durability, Kyrie was hurt in college, and he's missed on average 10 games per year more than IT. Expecting durability from Kyrie is a gamble.
3. The draft pick. Next year's draft has two guys who many consider to be generational talents. Both guys could be better than Kyrie. Let's say there's a 15% chance of getting one of those two picks. What's the value of a 15% chance of the next Anthony Davis? There are another three guys or so who project to be all-stars.
4. Character. I don't think there are any real questions about IT or Crowder here. For Kyrie, there's a gamble. He refused to talk to teammates in the playoffs, he has clashed with teammates in the past, there were rumors several years ago that he was trying to force his way out of Cleveland, and now he demanded to trade to assume a bigger role. There's also the gamble that we do not know if Kyrie can Carrie 18. The Cavaliers were terrible before LeBron, and they were terrible when LeBron sad.
5. The perception among players. I have no idea about this, but it should be factored in. You are starting to see players point out Danny's lack of loyalty. Avery Bradley seemed to do this, Caron Butler did, and of course Ray chimed in. Danny had seemed to put the "Danny is a snake" reputation behind him, but are we starting to see a rehash of it? And does that matter to potential free agents?
1. While they put up similar stats, they aren't really all that similar in their actual style of play. Now maybe some of that is system, but maybe not. Irving is a much better ball handler than Thomas is, which allows him to do things Thomas can't do (his size helps with that also).
As for the fit issue, the team is so different that you really don't know how Thomas would fit either, so I think the fit issue is a bit of a wash. Also, Irving is 3 years younger so it is entirely reasonable project a 3 year longer prime at a minimum, but that takes you to #2 with one guy currently hurt and the other not.
2. Irving has basically had 2 injuries that wiped out large portions of multiple seasons, but is currently healthy. Thomas seems to always have a nagging injury and currently isn't cleared for basketball play. So I'd put the bigger concern on the currently injured player, which also can reasonably lead to the conclusion that older smaller injured player might have his prime significantly reduced.
3. 15% seems pretty high. Even if Brooklyn is again the worst team in the league, there is still less than a 50% chance they get a top 2 pick. And I'm personally of the belief Brooklyn won't even be a bottom 5 team (I was before the trade and there are plenty of posts on here showing this). Even if 15% is accurate, you can't just assume Bagley or Porter is Anthony Davis. I mean Wiggins and Parker were supposed to be the next big thing and neither one is as good as Irving and likely never will be. Say there is a 15% that one of Bagley or Porter is the next Anthony Davis, you then still have to draft the right one (or have that one fall to your pick at 2). There is just so much uncertainty.
4. Thomas doesn't have much aside from his constant talking about brinks truck money. What happens if it became clear he wasn't getting the brinks truck. Crowder has been complaining a lot and him moving to bench here I think would have caused some issues at some point. And sure it isn't a good look on Irving not talking to teammates (though no one has really confirmed this is true), but I don't think Irving really wanted a bigger role, he just wanted away from James and the dumpster fire that is Cleveland's management. Remember he didn't leak the trade demand and thus didn't control the narrative. And if you look at the teams leaked they included both San Antonio and Minnesota, two places he would be playing at best 2nd fiddle.
5. I've always had a concern about this. I think I even made a thread about this a couple years ago before Horford signed stating my concern that Danny's reputation would hinder the teams ability to sign players. Clearly that hasn't happened yet, but it certainly could at some point.
That said, you seem to be ignoring the plenty of reasons to make the trade. First, the obvious Irving is better than Thomas. Second, Irving is younger than Thomas. Third, Irving is bigger than Thomas. Fourth, Irving is signed for 2 years while Thomas is signed for 1. Fifth, because Thomas is due for a contract next summer, Boston wasn't going to financially be able to keep Thomas and Smart, now Boston can keep Smart if it chooses because of the salary savings in not having the BKN pick, Crowder, and the presumed 5-10 million difference between Thomas and Irving next summer. Sixth, that salary savings likely allows Boston to avoid the luxury tax next summer (maybe even with Smart coming back), which means the team would be more likely to go into the tax when the team might actually be a contender in a couple of seasons. Seventh, Irving is the more respected player around the league and the player more likely to be seen as a draw for other free agents.
I'm sure there are other reasons.
At the end of the day I didn't like the inclusion of the Brooklyn pick, but I'm glad Ainge finally picked a direction and Ainge acquired the best player in the trade. That has to count for something.
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Topic: Is Kyrie a superstar? (poll) (Read 18107 times)