Nets pick vs Lakers pick

[action781]

I think when analyzing the Nets pick v. Lakers pick people are debating too much how bad either team will be and who's going to be worse while that is just the most minor of issues when discussing the pick.

Neither team has any incentive to tank, so I'm doubtful that either end up as one of the bottom 2 teams in the league.  Yes, I know Brooklyn had no incentive to tank last season and still ended up worst, but there were no tankers from day 1 last season and there are at least three this season.

Regardless if one team finishes 5th and the other 8th, they both have fairly short odds at getting a top 3 pick and it will come down to luck either way.  Sure, its better to have better odds if your horse is 5th with a better consolation prize as well, but still, it's a crap shoot.  And honestly, as much as you think you might know, you really have no clue which team will end up worse.  (I'm leaning Brooklyn)

The big difference in the two picks is the protection on the LAL pick.  The brooklyn pick has the chance to be #1 overall, which is a shot at a transcendent talent in this upcoming draft.  This is the kind of draft that teams will tank out of the playoffs just to get some ping pong balls for a shot at.  With Brooklyn, the full spectrum of odds are in play.  With LAL, there are so many combinations of scenarios were this pick doesn't convey and then we get it in 2019 which is looking like a weaker draft.

That LAL #1 protection alone is the only factor for me in evaluating the picks because its the only certainty we know of.  So I think the Brooklyn pick is considerably better and I'm bummed we gave it away instead of the LAL.  If we get lucky, great, but I think the odds were more on our side with the Brooklyn pick.

[Vermont Green]

I perused the Vegas over-under win totals and the average is Lakers at 32.5 and Nets at 21.5 (there is some variance but not all that much)  Incidentally the mean for the Celtics is about 54.5.  And yes, I understand that Vegas odds reflect how they think people will bet, not necessarily how things will turn out but this pretty clearly projects the Lakers with significantly more wins.

So do you want the unprotected pick from the team projected to win 10 fewer games or the pick with protections from the team projected to win more games.  Unprotected, fewer wins,.....   Protected, more wins.....

I don't think this is so hard.  The Brooklyn pick has more value.  A lot can happen before this is over but right now, it is pretty easy. 

[action781]

Let me try explaining it this way.  This is widely considered a 5 player draft, so let's consider our lottery odds at landing a top 5 pick with either LAL or BKN picks.

Let's assume LAL is indeed worse than Brooklyn.  Say they are the worst team and Brooklyn is 3rd worst.
In that case, LAL has 25% chance at #1 and 75% chance at 2-4.  So 75% chance of conveying.
Brooklyn has a 96% chance of #1-5 and 4% chance of #6.  100% chance of conveying.
That's even with LAL having the worse record.

The optimal scenario with the LAL pick is actually if they finish with the second worst record in the league.  That would give 20% chance at #1 (will not convey), and 80% chance at 2-5.  If Brooklyn finishes with the worst, 3rd worst, or 4th worst, we still have a higher than 80% chance at landing a 2-5 pick, not to mention all of them giving us a shot at the highly coveted #1 pick.

These examples are why even if LAL finishes worse than Brooklyn, the Brooklyn pick is *still* the better pick to have.  This doesn't even mention if Brooklyn finishes with the worse record which would make it even noticeably better.

[ETNCeltics]

I think there's every chance the LAL are a bottom 5 team.

Look at their schedule. They have 25 or so games against teams like GSW, Houston, etc that they have almost no hope of winning unless the other team has injuries or is resting everyone for the playoffs. If they go .500 on the rest of their schedule, that's not even 30 wins, and does anyone think they'll go .500 against everyone else?

It's not a stretch to see the LAL only win 25 games, and give us a good shot at the top 5 come lottery time. Unfortunately, I think Ball  is going to be great, but he's still a rookie on a team where he won't have a lot of help.

I'd say our chances of getting the LAL pick this coming draft is a lot closer to 50/50 than it is zero. The other bottom feeders in the West are better as well. I'd say there's a pretty good chance they'll be one of the two bottom teams out West. OTOH, Atlanta and Chicago may give BRK a race to the bottom in the East. It would be glorious if the BRK pick fell to 7 or some such and the LAL pick comes home to us.

[nickagneta]

Personally I think Cleveland is blowing it up next summer. With IT and Crowder added they will go all in to win it this year them push the button to blow that team apart. I think thats why they insisted on Tatum or the Brooklyn pick. That player would be the start of the base they will rebuild with.

What if they win the title this year though?  Think Lebron walks then?  He'd have to be a real jerk to walk away from a championship team.

I do think Lebron is a real jerk but I also feel Dan Gilbert doesn't want to pay the massive tax he will have to pay to keep that team together. Lebron's and Gilbert's relationship is broken and I don't think it can be fixed.

[JBcat]

I think there's every chance the LAL are a bottom 5 team.

Look at their schedule. They have 25 or so games against teams like GSW, Houston, etc that they have almost no hope of winning unless the other team has injuries or is resting everyone for the playoffs. If they go .500 on the rest of their schedule, that's not even 30 wins, and does anyone think they'll go .500 against everyone else?

It's not a stretch to see the LAL only win 25 games, and give us a good shot at the top 5 come lottery time. Unfortunately, I think Ball  is going to be great, but he's still a rookie on a team where he won't have a lot of help.

I'd say our chances of getting the LAL pick this coming draft is a lot closer to 50/50 than it is zero. The other bottom feeders in the West are better as well. I'd say there's a pretty good chance they'll be one of the two bottom teams out West. OTOH, Atlanta and Chicago may give BRK a race to the bottom in the East. It would be glorious if the BRK pick fell to 7 or some such and the LAL pick comes home to us.

Not only the Hawks and Bulls but there could be other teams in the East joining the race to the bottom like the Pacers now without George and the Knicks if they trade Melo.  Especially after the trade deadline.