How many games can this roster win vs the Cavs in a playoffs series? (poll)

[Moranis]

Are they the oldest team in the history of the league? Jefferson 36, Lebron 33, Calderon 35, Korver  36, Smith turning 32. Yikes.

Spurs first title was Duncan and the next 7 players all in their 30's and most well into their 30's   the Bulls second 3 peat the 3 best players all in their 30's and by the end well into their 30's.

You keep bringing up the age of role players (and Lebron) and continually ignore the fact that 3 of their 4 best players are very much in their prime.  Teams win and lose based on their best players not their role players and the Cavs still have the best player in a series with Boston by a very large margin and arguably the 2nd best player in the series as well.

In 2011 when Miami finally dethroned the Cs as being the king of the east the big 3s wheels were about to fall off and we were relying on Rondo already by then. PP was 33 KG was 34 and Allen was 35.
Yes eventually age will beat these Cavs.
GH was almost as dominant in the last playoffs and will continue to improve with his next best 5 yrs all invested in the Cs...same with IT and factor in the kids who are eager and we have that recipe to take down the Cavs.

Sure eventually but it will be the age of the stars not the role players. Boston's stars were old not the role players like Bradley, Rondo Davis, etc. That is the thing I keep pointing out to clay and he just ignores.

The Cavs are -140 and Boston is +275 to win the East for a reason.

Didnt matter in the playoffs this past season. Hoping for a different ending thid time

The cavs were huge favorites to win the east last year and also projected to have home court advantage by about 5 wins. This year it is much much closer

Sure it is closer, but -140 and +275 isn't exactly a pick um (the Celtics are actually currently projected to win more games than Cavs by most sites, yet they all still have the Cavs as the favorite to win the East).  The Cavs are still pretty significant favorites to win the East in Vegas.  They aren't run away favorites like they were last year or like the Warriors are this year (Warriors are -325, Spurs and Rockets are both +600), but let's not pretend the experts see the teams as about even, because they don't. 

[tstorey_97]

I hope they beat the Cavs.

No real answer for James...
No answer for Irving
Love looks like a tough matchup

Game of matchups.

Celts do look a lot better this year, with an injury and loss of momentum, C's could beat Cavs. Without a couple of "breaks" Cavs fulfill Vegas prediction.

[celticsclay]

Are they the oldest team in the history of the league? Jefferson 36, Lebron 33, Calderon 35, Korver  36, Smith turning 32. Yikes.

Spurs first title was Duncan and the next 7 players all in their 30's and most well into their 30's   the Bulls second 3 peat the 3 best players all in their 30's and by the end well into their 30's.

You keep bringing up the age of role players (and Lebron) and continually ignore the fact that 3 of their 4 best players are very much in their prime.  Teams win and lose based on their best players not their role players and the Cavs still have the best player in a series with Boston by a very large margin and arguably the 2nd best player in the series as well.

In 2011 when Miami finally dethroned the Cs as being the king of the east the big 3s wheels were about to fall off and we were relying on Rondo already by then. PP was 33 KG was 34 and Allen was 35.
Yes eventually age will beat these Cavs.
GH was almost as dominant in the last playoffs and will continue to improve with his next best 5 yrs all invested in the Cs...same with IT and factor in the kids who are eager and we have that recipe to take down the Cavs.

Sure eventually but it will be the age of the stars not the role players. Boston's stars were old not the role players like Bradley, Rondo Davis, etc. That is the thing I keep pointing out to clay and he just ignores.

The Cavs are -140 and Boston is +275 to win the East for a reason.

Didnt matter in the playoffs this past season. Hoping for a different ending thid time

The cavs were huge favorites to win the east last year and also projected to have home court advantage by about 5 wins. This year it is much much closer

Sure it is closer, but -140 and +275 isn't exactly a pick um (the Celtics are actually currently projected to win more games than Cavs by most sites, yet they all still have the Cavs as the favorite to win the East).  The Cavs are still pretty significant favorites to win the East in Vegas.  They aren't run away favorites like they were last year or like the Warriors are this year (Warriors are -325, Spurs and Rockets are both +600), but let's not pretend the experts see the teams as about even, because they don't.

Moranis I'll try to explain this to you one final time and if you don't get it or just see it a different way, we can just agree to not bother with this topic anymore. I realize that the Cavs are favorites over the Celtics at this time. When I say they are small favorites, I mean in the grand scheme of season long odds. The Warriors are huge favorites and if they have a rough stretch of the season or some minor injuries they may go down to -200 or something to win the West, but it would take something absolutely insane for them to not remain favorites to the win west. Like Curry and Durant would have to run into each other and both have their knees explode.

The Cavs, at -140 have a tenuous hold on being "favorites" to win the east. I would expect their odds to fluctuate between -200 and +200 without having any sort of major event over the course of the season. They have a strong west coast trip and establish the best record their odds will be even better. Their older players are banged up or not doing great as a unit, the odds will go down. The Celtics or perhaps the Wizards could become favorites over them in a series with home court advantage or if the Cavs don't make any major additions and struggle in the regular season. I'll also repeat that the Cavs with Lebron James are a huge public play (especially coming off being in the finals 3 straight years) so you are generally not going to get very fair odds on them.

While I can't prove this, I also believe there is a belief that the Cavs could still add Carmelo or Wade at some point this offseason and that is built into the odds at this time. If they enter training camp with this exact same line  (and when we start playing them in the regular season) I expect these odds will tighten even further (obviously provided they don't end up adding one of those guys).

[Granath]

Are they the oldest team in the history of the league? Jefferson 36, Lebron 33, Calderon 35, Korver  36, Smith turning 32. Yikes.

Spurs first title was Duncan and the next 7 players all in their 30's and most well into their 30's   the Bulls second 3 peat the 3 best players all in their 30's and by the end well into their 30's.

You keep bringing up the age of role players (and Lebron) and continually ignore the fact that 3 of their 4 best players are very much in their prime.  Teams win and lose based on their best players not their role players and the Cavs still have the best player in a series with Boston by a very large margin and arguably the 2nd best player in the series as well.

In 2011 when Miami finally dethroned the Cs as being the king of the east the big 3s wheels were about to fall off and we were relying on Rondo already by then. PP was 33 KG was 34 and Allen was 35.
Yes eventually age will beat these Cavs.
GH was almost as dominant in the last playoffs and will continue to improve with his next best 5 yrs all invested in the Cs...same with IT and factor in the kids who are eager and we have that recipe to take down the Cavs.

Sure eventually but it will be the age of the stars not the role players. Boston's stars were old not the role players like Bradley, Rondo Davis, etc. That is the thing I keep pointing out to clay and he just ignores.

The Cavs are -140 and Boston is +275 to win the East for a reason.

Didnt matter in the playoffs this past season. Hoping for a different ending thid time

The cavs were huge favorites to win the east last year and also projected to have home court advantage by about 5 wins. This year it is much much closer

Sure it is closer, but -140 and +275 isn't exactly a pick um (the Celtics are actually currently projected to win more games than Cavs by most sites, yet they all still have the Cavs as the favorite to win the East).  The Cavs are still pretty significant favorites to win the East in Vegas.  They aren't run away favorites like they were last year or like the Warriors are this year (Warriors are -325, Spurs and Rockets are both +600), but let's not pretend the experts see the teams as about even, because they don't.

Moranis I'll try to explain this to you one final time and if you don't get it or just see it a different way, we can just agree to not bother with this topic anymore. I realize that the Cavs are favorites over the Celtics at this time. When I say they are small favorites, I mean in the grand scheme of season long odds. The Warriors are huge favorites and if they have a rough stretch of the season or some minor injuries they may go down to -200 or something to win the West, but it would take something absolutely insane for them to not remain favorites to the win west. Like Curry and Durant would have to run into each other and both have their knees explode.

The Cavs, at -140 have a tenuous hold on being "favorites" to win the east. I would expect their odds to fluctuate between -200 and +200 without having any sort of major event over the course of the season. They have a strong west coast trip and establish the best record their odds will be even better. Their older players are banged up or not doing great as a unit, the odds will go down. The Celtics or perhaps the Wizards could become favorites over them in a series with home court advantage or if the Cavs don't make any major additions and struggle in the regular season. I'll also repeat that the Cavs with Lebron James are a huge public play (especially coming off being in the finals 3 straight years) so you are generally not going to get very fair odds on them.

While I can't prove this, I also believe there is a belief that the Cavs could still add Carmelo or Wade at some point this offseason and that is built into the odds at this time. If they enter training camp with this exact same line  (and when we start playing them in the regular season) I expect these odds will tighten even further (obviously provided they don't end up adding one of those guys).

Good post. I also believe that there are three factors currently influencing the Vegas odds in the Cavs' favor:

1. Lebron. Everyone, including Vegas, has long learned not to bet against Lebron. He's made something like 7 straight finals. Until someone knocks him off, they're always going to have the odds in his favor.

2. Future possibilities. Factored into the odds are the chances that Cleveland, once they have a GM, makes a move for another player. The Cs have sort of shown their cards for now and unless AD comes up in a trade we probably won't be big movers at the trade deadline. Cleveland still might swing a deal and the odds will reflect that.

3. Uncertainty over IT's hip also probably plays a bit in the odds and that's not reflected in the OPs original question.

Finally, the OP's question is how many games CAN they win. Not how many WILL they win. The Vegas line only answers the last question.

[celticsclay]

Are they the oldest team in the history of the league? Jefferson 36, Lebron 33, Calderon 35, Korver  36, Smith turning 32. Yikes.

Spurs first title was Duncan and the next 7 players all in their 30's and most well into their 30's   the Bulls second 3 peat the 3 best players all in their 30's and by the end well into their 30's.

You keep bringing up the age of role players (and Lebron) and continually ignore the fact that 3 of their 4 best players are very much in their prime.  Teams win and lose based on their best players not their role players and the Cavs still have the best player in a series with Boston by a very large margin and arguably the 2nd best player in the series as well.

In 2011 when Miami finally dethroned the Cs as being the king of the east the big 3s wheels were about to fall off and we were relying on Rondo already by then. PP was 33 KG was 34 and Allen was 35.
Yes eventually age will beat these Cavs.
GH was almost as dominant in the last playoffs and will continue to improve with his next best 5 yrs all invested in the Cs...same with IT and factor in the kids who are eager and we have that recipe to take down the Cavs.

Sure eventually but it will be the age of the stars not the role players. Boston's stars were old not the role players like Bradley, Rondo Davis, etc. That is the thing I keep pointing out to clay and he just ignores.

The Cavs are -140 and Boston is +275 to win the East for a reason.

Didnt matter in the playoffs this past season. Hoping for a different ending thid time

The cavs were huge favorites to win the east last year and also projected to have home court advantage by about 5 wins. This year it is much much closer

Sure it is closer, but -140 and +275 isn't exactly a pick um (the Celtics are actually currently projected to win more games than Cavs by most sites, yet they all still have the Cavs as the favorite to win the East).  The Cavs are still pretty significant favorites to win the East in Vegas.  They aren't run away favorites like they were last year or like the Warriors are this year (Warriors are -325, Spurs and Rockets are both +600), but let's not pretend the experts see the teams as about even, because they don't.

Moranis I'll try to explain this to you one final time and if you don't get it or just see it a different way, we can just agree to not bother with this topic anymore. I realize that the Cavs are favorites over the Celtics at this time. When I say they are small favorites, I mean in the grand scheme of season long odds. The Warriors are huge favorites and if they have a rough stretch of the season or some minor injuries they may go down to -200 or something to win the West, but it would take something absolutely insane for them to not remain favorites to the win west. Like Curry and Durant would have to run into each other and both have their knees explode.

The Cavs, at -140 have a tenuous hold on being "favorites" to win the east. I would expect their odds to fluctuate between -200 and +200 without having any sort of major event over the course of the season. They have a strong west coast trip and establish the best record their odds will be even better. Their older players are banged up or not doing great as a unit, the odds will go down. The Celtics or perhaps the Wizards could become favorites over them in a series with home court advantage or if the Cavs don't make any major additions and struggle in the regular season. I'll also repeat that the Cavs with Lebron James are a huge public play (especially coming off being in the finals 3 straight years) so you are generally not going to get very fair odds on them.

While I can't prove this, I also believe there is a belief that the Cavs could still add Carmelo or Wade at some point this offseason and that is built into the odds at this time. If they enter training camp with this exact same line  (and when we start playing them in the regular season) I expect these odds will tighten even further (obviously provided they don't end up adding one of those guys).

Good post. I also believe that there are three factors currently influencing the Vegas odds in the Cavs' favor:

1. Lebron. Everyone, including Vegas, has long learned not to bet against Lebron. He's made something like 7 straight finals. Until someone knocks him off, they're always going to have the odds in his favor. It's not unlike Tyson's 40 to 1 odds on Buster Douglas. If someone truly watched Tyson's performances against Bruno and then especially against Carl Williams they would have seen a guy who wasn't quite the same fighter and the odds would have been less. But the name/reputation still carried the weight and thus the odds were what they were when he stepped into the ring against Buster.

2. Future possibilities. Factored into the odds are the chances that Cleveland, once they have a GM, makes a move for another player. The Cs have sort of shown their cards for now and unless AD comes up in a trade we probably won't be big movers at the trade deadline. Cleveland still might swing a deal and the odds will reflect that.

3. Uncertainty over IT's hip also probably plays a bit in the odds and that's not reflected in the OPs original question.

Finally, the OP's question is how many games CAN they win. Not how many WILL they win. The Vegas line only answers the last question.

I do agree with this also. If and when IT comes out and looks like his old self the Celtics odds for winning could east certainly improve.

[tarheelsxxiii]

In a perfect world, about one month into the regular season, Adam Silver makes a public announcement that LeBron will be tested for performance-enhancing tactics within 24 hours.  Until then, he would be quarantined at the CDC, guarded by Kendrick Perkins and Clint Eastwood.  Vegas lines open and the world wagers on whether they believe LeBron uses or not.  I would love to see where that line fell.   

Far more interesting scenario at the moment.

[Moranis]

The only way the odds change that much is if Lebron James suffers a major injury.

Put it this way, before Hayward signed, Boston was +350 to win the East.  After Hayward and trading Bradley for Morris, Boston improved to +275.  If adding Hayward and Morris (in exchange for Bradley) only changed the line +75 (for the record the Cavs went from -150 to -140), then there is no way there will be anywhere near the fluctuation clay claims unless James gets hurt. 

The Cavs have the best player, by far, between the two teams.  Irving and Love are certainly in the top 5 players (along with Thomas and Hayward) among the two teams (and Irving is arguably the 2nd best player).  Horford is 6th, but after that you could reasonably argue that Thompson and Korver are 7th and 8th.  The Cavs just beat Boston in 5 very uncompetitive games and the game Boston won, Thomas didn't even play (and Cleveland absolutely throttled Boston in the two games Thomas did play). 

This notion that Boston is on Cleveland's level is just silly nonsense.  The Cavs are pretty clearly a better playoff team than the Celtics (notice I said playoff team because I fully expect Boston to have more wins than Cleveland in the regular season, just like they did last year).  Heck Boston's ownership/management consistently said all last year that Boston was 2 players away.  Boston only added 1 player.  There is a reason Boston was trying to sign Hayward and trade for George, because Boston knows that would have been a team that could realistically compete with Cleveland, the current team is still a player away.

[celticsclay]

The only way the odds change that much is if Lebron James suffers a major injury.

Put it this way, before Hayward signed, Boston was +350 to win the East.  After Hayward and trading Bradley for Morris, Boston improved to +275. If adding Hayward and Morris (in exchange for Bradley) only changed the line +75 (for the record the Cavs went from -150 to -140), then there is no way there will be anywhere near the fluctuation clay claims unless James gets hurt. 

The Cavs have the best player, by far, between the two teams.  Irving and Love are certainly in the top 5 players (along with Thomas and Hayward) among the two teams (and Irving is arguably the 2nd best player).  Horford is 6th, but after that you could reasonably argue that Thompson and Korver are 7th and 8th.  The Cavs just beat Boston in 5 very uncompetitive games and the game Boston won, Thomas didn't even play (and Cleveland absolutely throttled Boston in the two games Thomas did play). 

This notion that Boston is on Cleveland's level is just silly nonsense.  The Cavs are pretty clearly a better playoff team than the Celtics (notice I said playoff team because I fully expect Boston to have more wins than Cleveland in the regular season, just like they did last year).  Heck Boston's ownership/management consistently said all last year that Boston was 2 players away.  Boston only added 1 player.  There is a reason Boston was trying to sign Hayward and trade for George, because Boston knows that would have been a team that could realistically compete with Cleveland, the current team is still a player away.

You really are an idiot about this. Serious question, do you have ever follow the odds of this throughout the season? They literally change all the time as the season progresses and by a lot more than 40 cents. I have followed this very closely for about 10 years.

I am also going to post this again because you seem to be going out of your way to ignore this pretty straight forward fact.

On April 13th (Prior to playoffs from espn's chalk which is the most easily available odds article for most people, Celtics had already secured home court in playoffs) Title odds for 2016-2017 season

Celtics 20-1
Cavs 5-2

On July 15th title odds for team to win championship
Celtics 7.5 to 1
Cavs 5 -1



If that is not the teams being on the same level and showing a dramatic tightening I don't what the hell would....

This is completely straight forward Moranis and you are being willfully ignorant

Also Korver isn't even the 8th best player on his team let alone in the series. Lord.

I've repeatedly acknowledged the Cavs are slight favorites over the Celtics to win the championship for a variety of reason.

 However, saying that when the Celtics from from 20-1 to 7.5 to 1 and the Cavs go from 5-2 to 5-1 isn't putting them at the same "level" is just not a reasonable take.

[Phantom255x]

LOL wow, I voted "2" to try and be realistic and thought that would be the majority (2 or 3).

60% of people here think we can beat CLE in a playoff series this year? 

Wow I guess I better go back to being my optimistic self and wearing the green shades.

Celtics in 7 

[Moranis]

On October 18, 2016 the Eastern Conference odds were

-215
+500

The Cavs as the defending NBA champions and the upstart Celtics were still very far apart.  Which makes sense, since Boston hadn't yet played with Horford and lacked a transcendent player (or even a HOFer - remember this is before Thomas took another jump).

Just before the playoffs, on April 13, 2017 the Eastern Conference odds were

-275
+425

This was of course before Boston advanced to the ECF and had only been a 1st round and out team, but had been healthy.  Boston's odds got better, but the Cavs were even more favored entering the playoffs then at the start of the season (James being healthy will do that).  This despite Thomas putting up a top 5 MVP level performance on the season.

After Boston beat Washington and before game 1 of the ECF, the odds were

-600
+450

So, the Cavs got on a roll and Boston struggled with Chicago and Washington, so the Cavs became much heavier favorites, which was borne out in the series.

At the start of free agency

-150
+325

The Celtics had closed the gap a bit after getting experience and the anticipation of Boston acquiring a prime free agent or making a trade (or both) and the Cavs basically looking like they would be bringing back the same core with only some minor changes to their bench.


Then when Boston finally makes it moves, the gap only slightly narrows a bit more.

-140
+275

So Boston has closed the gap, which I've acknowledged all along, but the gap is still pretty substantial and they show the Celtics are still a player away (which is what ownership has said all along).  I'm sorry that you disagree with Wyc and Ainge, but they know the team is a player away.  They also know that James is getting old and there is no point in giving away the kitchen sink to only slightly improve Boston's title chances (that means the Warriors not just the Cavs come into play).  Ownership is trying to have its cake and eat to, I personally think that is the wrong decision, but I understand why they are doing what they are doing.

[Moranis]

LOL wow, I voted "2" to try and be realistic and thought that would be the majority (2 or 3).

60% of people here think we can beat CLE in a playoff series this year? 

Wow I guess I better go back to being my optimistic self and wearing the green shades.

Celtics in 7 

The question was CAN, not what do you realistically expect.

[PaulAllen]

1.5

However the Celtics will have the entire eastern conference themselves in 2018

[Tr1boy]

The thing is this...

Can the Celts punch back after being battered in the corner of the ring?

In addition can the team slow down Bron, Irving, Love a bit more than last season

It looks like the answer is "yes" for both

Hayward alone provides 20 points a game... IT4 should have more space to play better than he did last playoffs.

I like Morris, Baynes ability to grind Bron down than anything KO could provide last season

If Tatum and Brown are ahead of their development curves....

Exciting season to come.....

[BitterJim]

The only way the odds change that much is if Lebron James suffers a major injury.

Put it this way, before Hayward signed, Boston was +350 to win the East.  After Hayward and trading Bradley for Morris, Boston improved to +275.  If adding Hayward and Morris (in exchange for Bradley) only changed the line +75 (for the record the Cavs went from -150 to -140), then there is no way there will be anywhere near the fluctuation clay claims unless James gets hurt. 

The Cavs have the best player, by far, between the two teams.  Irving and Love are certainly in the top 5 players (along with Thomas and Hayward) among the two teams (and Irving is arguably the 2nd best player).  Horford is 6th, but after that you could reasonably argue that Thompson and Korver are 7th and 8th.  The Cavs just beat Boston in 5 very uncompetitive games and the game Boston won, Thomas didn't even play (and Cleveland absolutely throttled Boston in the two games Thomas did play). 

This notion that Boston is on Cleveland's level is just silly nonsense.  The Cavs are pretty clearly a better playoff team than the Celtics (notice I said playoff team because I fully expect Boston to have more wins than Cleveland in the regular season, just like they did last year).  Heck Boston's ownership/management consistently said all last year that Boston was 2 players away.  Boston only added 1 player.  There is a reason Boston was trying to sign Hayward and trade for George, because Boston knows that would have been a team that could realistically compete with Cleveland, the current team is still a player away.

Adding Hayward and trading Bradley did not move the line just +75.  The Celtics' numbers pre-free agency had the possibility of Hayward (as well as Paul George) coming here already built in.  The jump from the end of last season to now is much more representative of how adding Hayward affected our odds (although it also factors in IT's injury)

[celticsclay]

The only way the odds change that much is if Lebron James suffers a major injury.

Put it this way, before Hayward signed, Boston was +350 to win the East.  After Hayward and trading Bradley for Morris, Boston improved to +275.  If adding Hayward and Morris (in exchange for Bradley) only changed the line +75 (for the record the Cavs went from -150 to -140), then there is no way there will be anywhere near the fluctuation clay claims unless James gets hurt. 

The Cavs have the best player, by far, between the two teams.  Irving and Love are certainly in the top 5 players (along with Thomas and Hayward) among the two teams (and Irving is arguably the 2nd best player).  Horford is 6th, but after that you could reasonably argue that Thompson and Korver are 7th and 8th.  The Cavs just beat Boston in 5 very uncompetitive games and the game Boston won, Thomas didn't even play (and Cleveland absolutely throttled Boston in the two games Thomas did play). 

This notion that Boston is on Cleveland's level is just silly nonsense.  The Cavs are pretty clearly a better playoff team than the Celtics (notice I said playoff team because I fully expect Boston to have more wins than Cleveland in the regular season, just like they did last year).  Heck Boston's ownership/management consistently said all last year that Boston was 2 players away.  Boston only added 1 player.  There is a reason Boston was trying to sign Hayward and trade for George, because Boston knows that would have been a team that could realistically compete with Cleveland, the current team is still a player away.

Adding Hayward and trading Bradley did not move the line just +75.  The Celtics' numbers pre-free agency had the possibility of Hayward (as well as Paul George) coming here already built in.  The jump from the end of last season to now is much more representative of how adding Hayward affected our odds (although it also factors in IT's injury)

Yes this is the full move:

On April 13th 2016-2017 title odds:

Celtics 20-1
Cavs 5-2

On July 15th title odds for team to win championship in 2017-2018
Celtics 7.5 to 1
Cavs 5-1

We have gone from being a wild Cinderella underdog (like the Colorado Rockies winning the world series this year at 25-1

To one of the best teams in baseball like the Nationals (7.5 to 1) or Red Sox (6-1) winning the World Series.

I have never seen a "fan" of a team do so much to downplay the fact that their own teams championship dramatically improved in a 3 month period. We should be really excited about how much we have closed this gap in 3 short months!