Minor Change on Fultz Trade Announced

[mctyson]

I accept the protections on the Lakers pick.  It makes sense:  we give up the chance at the #1 in exchange for protection from the Lakers being better than expected next year, either through growth or a splash acquisition. 

But that 2019 breakdown is risky.  We get the better of the picks, unless that pick is #1.  It looks like Danny tried to set up a similar type of downside protection as the 2018 pick, but there's a scenario in which the Kings win the lottery, which leaves us with a Philly pick in the 20-25 range. 

It's all completely out of our hands now.  Trading the #1 for two #3s is a good move.  Trading the #1 for a #3 and #20 is a bad move.  Whether this move is good, decent, or bad depends entirely on the misfortunes of other teams and the whimsy of the lottery.  I don't like the lack of control.

There is also a scenario where both teams are in the lottery and one is in the top-5.  I consider that more likely and I am sure Danny does too.

[JohnBoy65]

I accept the protections on the Lakers pick.  It makes sense:  we give up the chance at the #1 in exchange for protection from the Lakers being better than expected next year, either through growth or a splash acquisition. 

But that 2019 breakdown is risky.  We get the better of the picks, unless that pick is #1.  It looks like Danny tried to set up a similar type of downside protection as the 2018 pick, but there's a scenario in which the Kings win the lottery, which leaves us with a Philly pick in the 20-25 range. 

It's all completely out of our hands now.  Trading the #1 for two #3s is a good move.  Trading the #1 for a #3 and #20 is a bad move.  Whether this move is good, decent, or bad depends entirely on the misfortunes of other teams and the whimsy of the lottery.  I don't like the lack of control.

There is also a scenario where both teams are in the lottery and one is in the top-5.  I consider that more likely and I am sure Danny does too.

Just like there is a scenario in which the Celtics have #1 and #2 in next years draft.

[mctyson]

Fans are actually celebrating that the trade got worse?

What are the chances lakers or sac win the #1 pick? But both lakers and sac win the #1 consecutive years

You are getting mad about something that doesnt have a high chance of happening??....

Im so sick of arguing with people who have strong opinions but that can't or don't interpret basic information.

The Lakers pick doesn't have to be #1 for it not to convey.

what are you talking about?

you don't think I know this?

You are getting upset because there is a protection on the Kings pick (#1)...

What are the chances it will be the #1 pick? if the chances are low...what are you getting all worked up about?

Overall its a good return with a low chance one of the picks sukking... Several things must go wrong for the Celts to get a bad pick

Just because you are upset the Celts are not going to draft Fultz..  don't make this look like a bad deal

I think having the #1 protection on the 2019 SAC pick elevates the issue of the LA 2018 protections.  I know it is a low chance of happening, but if LA doesn't convey then at least you go into 2019 with a fully unprotected pick from a historically terrible franchise.  With the protection, that is not the case.

[Dchuck]

Fans are actually celebrating that the trade got worse?

What are the chances lakers or sac win the #1 pick? But both lakers and sac win the #1 consecutive years

You are getting mad about something that doesnt have a high chance of happening??....

Im so sick of arguing with people who have strong opinions but that can't or don't interpret basic information.

The Lakers pick doesn't have to be #1 for it not to convey.

what are you talking about?

you don't think I know this?

You are getting upset because there is a protection on the Kings pick (#1)...

What are the chances it will be the #1 pick? if the chances are low...what are you getting all worked up about?

Overall its a good return with a low chance one of the picks sukking... Several things must go wrong for the Celts to get a bad pick

Just because you are upset the Celts are not going to draft Fultz..  don't make this look like a bad deal

Is that all u do in every post?  "You're Just mad cuz we're not getting Fultz"

Is that ur rebuttal every time someone makes a valid point  that goes against yours?

The fact is, most, if not all, protections do not make this deal better.

Danny should have held his ground and only allowed ONE protection on either pick, not protections on both.

[mctyson]

I accept the protections on the Lakers pick.  It makes sense:  we give up the chance at the #1 in exchange for protection from the Lakers being better than expected next year, either through growth or a splash acquisition. 

But that 2019 breakdown is risky.  We get the better of the picks, unless that pick is #1.  It looks like Danny tried to set up a similar type of downside protection as the 2018 pick, but there's a scenario in which the Kings win the lottery, which leaves us with a Philly pick in the 20-25 range. 

It's all completely out of our hands now.  Trading the #1 for two #3s is a good move.  Trading the #1 for a #3 and #20 is a bad move.  Whether this move is good, decent, or bad depends entirely on the misfortunes of other teams and the whimsy of the lottery.  I don't like the lack of control.

There is also a scenario where both teams are in the lottery and one is in the top-5.  I consider that more likely and I am sure Danny does too.

Just like there is a scenario in which the Celtics have #1 and #2 in next years draft.

Yep, that's why I don't get worked up about these things.  I will call this trade a loss if and when Fultz becomes a study and the Cs are left with a 2019 pick in the 10-30 range.  Until then, it's great to have top-5 pick, or a shot at one, 4 years in row while being a 50 win team.

[Roy H.]

Fans are actually celebrating that the trade got worse?

What are the chances lakers or sac win the #1 pick? But both lakers and sac win the #1 consecutive years

You are getting mad about something that doesnt have a high chance of happening??....

Im so sick of arguing with people who have strong opinions but that can't or don't interpret basic information.

The Lakers pick doesn't have to be #1 for it not to convey.

what are you talking about?

you don't think I know this?

You are getting upset because there is a protection on the Kings pick (#1)...

What are the chances it will be the #1 pick? if the chances are low...what are you getting all worked up about?

Overall its a good return with a low chance one of the picks sukking... Several things must go wrong for the Celts to get a bad pick

Just because you are upset the Celts are not going to draft Fultz..  don't make this look like a bad deal

You said:

But both lakers and sac win the #1 consecutive years

The Lakers pick doesn't need to be #1 for the SAC pick to convey. If you knew how the deal worked you wouldn't make that argument.

[Tr1boy]

Fans are actually celebrating that the trade got worse?

What are the chances lakers or sac win the #1 pick? But both lakers and sac win the #1 consecutive years

You are getting mad about something that doesnt have a high chance of happening??....

Im so sick of arguing with people who have strong opinions but that can't or don't interpret basic information.

The Lakers pick doesn't have to be #1 for it not to convey.

what are you talking about?

you don't think I know this?

You are getting upset because there is a protection on the Kings pick (#1)...

What are the chances it will be the #1 pick? if the chances are low...what are you getting all worked up about?

Overall its a good return with a low chance one of the picks sukking... Several things must go wrong for the Celts to get a bad pick

Just because you are upset the Celts are not going to draft Fultz..  don't make this look like a bad deal

Is that all u do in every post? "You're Just mad cuz we're not getting Fultz"

Is that ur rebuttal every time someone makes a valid point  that goes against yours?

The fact is, most, if not all, protections do not make this deal better.

Danny should have held his ground and only allowed ONE protection on either pick, not protections on both.

you can't expect to rip off teams all the time....Danny already fleeced the Nets and thats why teams are adding protections when it comes to trading picks....even a powerhouse like the Cavs etc. do it

While you might feel great if the Celtics get the #3 and  2018 or 2019 #1 to makeup for the loss of drafting Fultz...the 76ers don't/wouldn't feel that way.  And Colangelo would be fired

It has been already said that both teams understand there is not a wide gap between the 2017 1-3 picks. 

The celtics still get a shot at a 2-5 pick (for 2018) or a good shot at 2-5 range for the 2019 draft (whichever pick is better between Sac/Philly).

[Tr1boy]

Fans are actually celebrating that the trade got worse?

What are the chances lakers or sac win the #1 pick? But both lakers and sac win the #1 consecutive years

You are getting mad about something that doesnt have a high chance of happening??....

Im so sick of arguing with people who have strong opinions but that can't or don't interpret basic information.

The Lakers pick doesn't have to be #1 for it not to convey.

what are you talking about?

you don't think I know this?

You are getting upset because there is a protection on the Kings pick (#1)...

What are the chances it will be the #1 pick? if the chances are low...what are you getting all worked up about?

Overall its a good return with a low chance one of the picks sukking... Several things must go wrong for the Celts to get a bad pick

Just because you are upset the Celts are not going to draft Fultz..  don't make this look like a bad deal

You said:

But both lakers and sac win the #1 consecutive years

The Lakers pick doesn't need to be #1 for the SAC pick to convey. If you knew how the deal worked you wouldn't make that argument.

I was trying to prove a point

Roy you are not happy the Celtics are not going to draft Fultz....

I didn't see you jumping with joy even if the understanding was that the 2019 pick was going to be fully unprotected

Now that there is a protection 2019 #1... you are making this deal sound worst than it is.... 

It is feeding to your overall displeasure that the Celts are not going to draft Fultz

you can correct me if I'm wrong

[Roy H.]

Fans are actually celebrating that the trade got worse?

What are the chances lakers or sac win the #1 pick? But both lakers and sac win the #1 consecutive years

You are getting mad about something that doesnt have a high chance of happening??....

Im so sick of arguing with people who have strong opinions but that can't or don't interpret basic information.

The Lakers pick doesn't have to be #1 for it not to convey.

what are you talking about?

you don't think I know this?

You are getting upset because there is a protection on the Kings pick (#1)...

What are the chances it will be the #1 pick? if the chances are low...what are you getting all worked up about?

Overall its a good return with a low chance one of the picks sukking... Several things must go wrong for the Celts to get a bad pick

Just because you are upset the Celts are not going to draft Fultz..  don't make this look like a bad deal

You said:

But both lakers and sac win the #1 consecutive years

The Lakers pick doesn't need to be #1 for the SAC pick to convey. If you knew how the deal worked you wouldn't make that argument.

I was trying to prove a point

Roy you are not happy the Celtics are not going to draft Fultz....

I didn't see you jumping with joy even if the understanding was that the 2019 pick was going to be fully unprotected

Now that there is a protection 2019 #1... you are making this deal sound worst than it is.... 

It is feeding to your overall displeasure that the Celts are not going to draft Fultz

you can correct me if I'm wrong

You made a false claim about the pick having to be #1 twice in a row for it not to convey. That's not true.

I've been clear: the protection on the #1 pick makes a bad deal slightly worse. Any deal that relies on pure luck to prevent a disastrous return is one I wouldn't agree to.

[vjcsmoke]

Yeah, the tweak makes this trade pretty bad.  If the Lakers win the lottery in 2018, our pick gets pushed back.  If either Philly or Sacramento wins the lottery in 2019, then we get the worst of the picks.  And not only that it's a pick swap, so we actually lose our 2019 1st round pick.

Why you giving up so much Danny?  No push back at all?  This isn't even close to Penny Hardaway return to move down.

Does DA hate Fultz that much, this is how little he values the move down?

Awesome. Makes a good trade that much better.

What part makes this better?

If SAC get's the #1 pick, we get the PHI 1st rounder.  We could get a mid-first rounder if Philly makes the playoffs in 2 yrs (likely, since they almost made it this year before Embiid went down)

The trade is actually WORSE!!!

[rondofan1255]

Yeah, the tweak makes this trade pretty bad.  If the Lakers win the lottery in 2018, our pick gets pushed back.  If either Philly or Sacramento wins the lottery in 2019, then we get the worst of the picks.  And not only that it's a pick swap, so we actually lose our 2019 1st round pick.

The Celtics aren't going to lose their 2019 1st round pick. The trade doesn't affect their own pick no matter what happens.

[gift]

Fans are actually celebrating that the trade got worse?

What are the chances lakers or sac win the #1 pick? But both lakers and sac win the #1 consecutive years

You are getting mad about something that doesnt have a high chance of happening??....

Im so sick of arguing with people who have strong opinions but that can't or don't interpret basic information.

The Lakers pick doesn't have to be #1 for it not to convey.

what are you talking about?

you don't think I know this?

You are getting upset because there is a protection on the Kings pick (#1)...

What are the chances it will be the #1 pick? if the chances are low...what are you getting all worked up about?

Overall its a good return with a low chance one of the picks sukking... Several things must go wrong for the Celts to get a bad pick

Just because you are upset the Celts are not going to draft Fultz..  don't make this look like a bad deal

You said:

But both lakers and sac win the #1 consecutive years

The Lakers pick doesn't need to be #1 for the SAC pick to convey. If you knew how the deal worked you wouldn't make that argument.

I was trying to prove a point

Roy you are not happy the Celtics are not going to draft Fultz....

I didn't see you jumping with joy even if the understanding was that the 2019 pick was going to be fully unprotected

Now that there is a protection 2019 #1... you are making this deal sound worst than it is.... 

It is feeding to your overall displeasure that the Celts are not going to draft Fultz

you can correct me if I'm wrong

You made a false claim about the pick having to be #1 twice in a row for it not to convey. That's not true.

I've been clear: the protection on the #1 pick makes a bad deal slightly worse. Any deal that relies on pure luck to prevent a disastrous return is one I wouldn't agree to.

The deal would need a lot more bad luck to be "disastrous" than it would need good luck to be good. Why is one type of luck respected more than another?

It seems you are doing a risk assessment of the deal, which is good. But you have to account for probability when doing a proper assessment. You can't just look at the worst possible scenario and let that dictate your decisions.

It's like deciding not to fly on a plane because worst case scenario is you die in a plane crash. If you don't fly, you definitely won't die in a plane crash. Is flying a bad decision?

[Dchuck]

There is risk with any trade and draft pick.  However, when assessing whether or not this trade got better or worse, the more stipulations/protections there are, the worse it gets.

I feel it got worse because of the fact that both potential picks have protections.  Originally, it was thought there was only the protection on the LA pick. 

My argument is, if we had the power position, why couldn't Danny hold his ground and demand only one protection?

[mctyson]

Yeah, the tweak makes this trade pretty bad.  If the Lakers win the lottery in 2018, our pick gets pushed back.  If either Philly or Sacramento wins the lottery in 2019, then we get the worst of the picks.  And not only that it's a pick swap, so we actually lose our 2019 1st round pick.

Why you giving up so much Danny? No push back at all?  This isn't even close to Penny Hardaway return to move down.

Does DA hate Fultz that much, this is how little he values the move down?

Awesome. Makes a good trade that much better.

What part makes this better?

If SAC get's the #1 pick, we get the PHI 1st rounder.  We could get a mid-first rounder if Philly makes the playoffs in 2 yrs (likely, since they almost made it this year before Embiid went down)

The trade is actually WORSE!!!

I think we have to remember that they moved down 2 spots.

[hpantazo]

Fans are actually celebrating that the trade got worse?

What are the chances lakers or sac win the #1 pick? But both lakers and sac win the #1 consecutive years

You are getting mad about something that doesnt have a high chance of happening??....

Im so sick of arguing with people who have strong opinions but that can't or don't interpret basic information.

The Lakers pick doesn't have to be #1 for it not to convey.

what are you talking about?

you don't think I know this?

You are getting upset because there is a protection on the Kings pick (#1)...

What are the chances it will be the #1 pick? if the chances are low...what are you getting all worked up about?

Overall its a good return with a low chance one of the picks sukking... Several things must go wrong for the Celts to get a bad pick

Just because you are upset the Celts are not going to draft Fultz..  don't make this look like a bad deal

You said:

But both lakers and sac win the #1 consecutive years

The Lakers pick doesn't need to be #1 for the SAC pick to convey. If you knew how the deal worked you wouldn't make that argument.

I was trying to prove a point

Roy you are not happy the Celtics are not going to draft Fultz....

I didn't see you jumping with joy even if the understanding was that the 2019 pick was going to be fully unprotected

Now that there is a protection 2019 #1... you are making this deal sound worst than it is.... 

It is feeding to your overall displeasure that the Celts are not going to draft Fultz

you can correct me if I'm wrong

You made a false claim about the pick having to be #1 twice in a row for it not to convey. That's not true.

I've been clear: the protection on the #1 pick makes a bad deal slightly worse. Any deal that relies on pure luck to prevent a disastrous return is one I wouldn't agree to.

Is it pure luck betting that one out of the Kings and the Sixers will be a bottom 10 team in 2019?

I don't think so. I think it is a high likelihood that if we don't get the LA pick (2-5) in 2018, the better or the Sixers or Kings pick in 2019 is going to be very good. If it somehow ends up #1, then yeah, it is possible that the other pick in 2019 is average instead of very good. The probability of all of that happening , to result in getting the worst of the two 2019 picks though, is pretty low.