Feel Better About Trading the #1

[Big333223]

It's only happened 6 times in NBA history (and 2 of those were in the 50's) but the track record for trading #1 is actually pretty good.

It might not mean anything for this specific draft but this little history rundown made me feel better.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/how-trading-the-no-1-pick-in-the-nba-draft-works-out-a-brief-history/

Of the six instances in which the team has traded the No. 1 overall pick, really only the Philadelphia 76ers in 1986 have regretted it. All the other trades actually worked out for the team that dealt the top pick.

It will be years before we're able to know if trading the No. 1 pick this year would be a good idea -- if the Celtics trade it at all -- but history does tell us that teams have had success making that move.

[ETNCeltics]

In the case of the last 3 such trades, the #1 pick was better or in the case of Wiggins, could be better, than the player traded for.

IMO, ainge has made a catastrophic trade that we'll still be paying for a decade from now.

[KGs Knee]

In the case of the last 3 such trades, the #1 pick was better or in the case of Wiggins, could be better, than the player traded for.

IMO, ainge has made a catastrophic trade that we'll still be paying for a decade from now.

It already appears Cleveland made the right choice trading Wiggins for Love. The Cavs won a title they never would have won if they kept Wiggins.

Wiggins quickly appears to not be living up to all the potential people thought he had.  I won't call Wiggins a bust, that's not accurate, but he's been a disappointment.

[KGBirdBias]

What if the Celtics next year end up getting

#1 & #3

#2 & #5

#3 & #4

and the best scenario is of course getting #1 & #2

There is nothing that the Nets or Lakers can do at this point NOT to be in the lottery next year. The Nets pick will be a top 3 pick for sure. In the West even with Ball the Lakers are going to lose A LOT.

[Big333223]

In the case of the last 3 such trades, the #1 pick was better or in the case of Wiggins, could be better, than the player traded for.

IMO, ainge has made a catastrophic trade that we'll still be paying for a decade from now.

It already appears Cleveland made the right choice trading Wiggins for Love. The Cavs won a title they never would have won if they kept Wiggins.

Wiggins quickly appears to not be living up to all the potential people thought he had.  I won't call Wiggins a bust, that's not accurate, but he's been a disappointment.

I'm still high on Wiggins but he does look more one-dimensional than most thought he would be and his destiny is looking like a #2 option. With Love, the Cavs have made 3 straight Finals and won one. I think they would do the trade again.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

I don't think I'll feel better until I see what happens.

I can honestly say though, that I've accepted it and now looking forward to what's next. I'm not mad at it anymore, I'm more excited now actually. I'm trying to convince myself that Josh Jackson would be good, I'm trying to watch more Jayson Tatum stuff. I'm looking at scenarios when it comes to trade.

I think time, and Markelle Fultz averaging 20/4/6 on 44/34/77 splits on his first year will tell as to how I feel about the trade, but I'm not outraged anymore.

I want to see what's next!

[green_bballers13]

I don't think I'll feel better until I see what happens.

I can honestly say though, that I've accepted it and now looking forward to what's next. I'm not mad at it anymore, I'm more excited now actually. I'm trying to convince myself that Josh Jackson would be good, I'm trying to watch more Jayson Tatum stuff. I'm looking at scenarios when it comes to trade.

I think time, and Markelle Fultz averaging 20/4/6 on 44/34/77 splits on his first year will tell as to how I feel about the trade, but I'm not outraged anymore.

I want to see what's next!

Do you honestly think that Fultz's stats on a bad Philly team next year will indicate a lot? He's very likely to shoot more than any player we pick. I guess Danny thought Fultz's stats on a bad Washington team last year were overrated.

[OldSchoolDude]

I don't think I'll feel better until I see what happens.

I can honestly say though, that I've accepted it and now looking forward to what's next. I'm not mad at it anymore, I'm more excited now actually. I'm trying to convince myself that Josh Jackson would be good, I'm trying to watch more Jayson Tatum stuff. I'm looking at scenarios when it comes to trade.

I think time, and Markelle Fultz averaging 20/4/6 on 44/34/77 splits on his first year will tell as to how I feel about the trade, but I'm not outraged anymore.

I want to see what's next!

Don't sleep on Isaac, he was one of the first people the C's worked out.  He already grew an inch in his college year and may grow an another inch or two still.  He's 6'11 and can play the 3 now 3,4,5 with time and should be able to guard 1-5.  His frail body makes him a risk but it's no different than Ingram and he went #2 last year.

[Boris Badenov]

Just for kicks I went back and matched up the #1 and #3 from every draft

2015: KAT*            Okafor
2014: Wiggins         Embiid
2013: Bennett         Porter*
2012: A. Davis*       Beal
2011: Kyrie*          Kanter
2010: Wall*           Favors
2009: Blake G.        Harden
2008: Rose*           Mayo
2007: Oden*           Horford
2006: Bargnani*       Morrison
2005: Bogut           Deron W.
2004: D. Howard*      B Gordon
2003: Lebron*         Carmelo
2002: Yao*            Dunleavy
2001: Kwame           P Gasol*
2000: K Martin        D Miles
1999: E Brand         B Davis*
1998: Olowokandi      LaFrentz*
1997: Duncan*         Billups
1996: Iverson*        Abdur-Rahim

I have asterisked the better player in each case (setting aside injury). No asterisks for toss-ups.

The first pick wins that battle 12-4 IMO. There are some close calls and some clear calls obviously.

It's when you get to the "elite vs star" difference that you get separation:

MVP: 8-0
Finals: 16-5
Champions: 8-3

Even there, the finals/champs from #3 were often not completely dominant the way the #1s were. (Billups and Pau vs. Duncan and Lebron, for example).

You might think that if go back father and hit Jordan and things even up quite a bit, but they don't. Shaq, Magic and Hakeem more than offset him.

And of course there's a caveat here which is that we will also likely get another top 5 pick. It's unlikely to net us a transcendent player, but it will help.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

I don't think I'll feel better until I see what happens.

I can honestly say though, that I've accepted it and now looking forward to what's next. I'm not mad at it anymore, I'm more excited now actually. I'm trying to convince myself that Josh Jackson would be good, I'm trying to watch more Jayson Tatum stuff. I'm looking at scenarios when it comes to trade.

I think time, and Markelle Fultz averaging 20/4/6 on 44/34/77 splits on his first year will tell as to how I feel about the trade, but I'm not outraged anymore.

I want to see what's next!

Do you honestly think that Fultz's stats on a bad Philly team next year will indicate a lot? He's very likely to shoot more than any player we pick. I guess Danny thought Fultz's stats on a bad Washington team last year were overrated.

If he shoots at that efficiency in his rookie year, it will tell a lot.

[gouki88]

Just for kicks I went back and matched up the #1 and #3 from every draft

2015: KAT*            Okafor
2014: Wiggins         Embiid
2013: Bennett         Porter*
2012: A. Davis*       Beal
2011: Kyrie*          Kanter
2010: Wall*           Favors
2009: Blake G.        Harden
2008: Rose*           Mayo
2007: Oden*           Horford
2006: Bargnani*       Morrison
2005: Bogut           Deron W.
2004: D. Howard*      B Gordon
2003: Lebron*         Carmelo
2002: Yao*            Dunleavy
2001: Kwame           P Gasol*
2000: K Martin        D Miles
1999: E Brand         B Davis*
1998: Olowokandi      LaFrentz*
1997: Duncan*         Billups
1996: Iverson*        Abdur-Rahim

I have asterisked the better player in each case (setting aside injury). No asterisks for toss-ups.

The first pick wins that battle 12-4 IMO. There are some close calls and some clear calls obviously.

It's when you get to the "elite vs star" difference that you get separation:

MVP: 8-0
Finals: 16-5
Champions: 8-3

Even there, the finals/champs from #3 were often not completely dominant the way the #1s were. (Billups and Pau vs. Duncan and Lebron, for example).

You might think that if go back father and hit Jordan and things even up quite a bit, but they don't. Shaq, Magic and Hakeem more than offset him.

And of course there's a caveat here which is that we will also likely get another top 5 pick. It's unlikely to net us a transcendent player, but it will help.

Overall, really good post, TP.

But c'mon, that's at least a toss-up. Before injuries Elton Brand was a monster.

Edit: I emboldened it, but it barely shows 

[Boris Badenov]

Just for kicks I went back and matched up the #1 and #3 from every draft

2015: KAT*            Okafor
2014: Wiggins         Embiid
2013: Bennett         Porter*
2012: A. Davis*       Beal
2011: Kyrie*          Kanter
2010: Wall*           Favors
2009: Blake G.        Harden
2008: Rose*           Mayo
2007: Oden*           Horford
2006: Bargnani*       Morrison
2005: Bogut           Deron W.
2004: D. Howard*      B Gordon
2003: Lebron*         Carmelo
2002: Yao*            Dunleavy
2001: Kwame           P Gasol*
2000: K Martin        D Miles
1999: E Brand         B Davis*
1998: Olowokandi      LaFrentz*
1997: Duncan*         Billups
1996: Iverson*        Abdur-Rahim

I have asterisked the better player in each case (setting aside injury). No asterisks for toss-ups.

The first pick wins that battle 12-4 IMO. There are some close calls and some clear calls obviously.

It's when you get to the "elite vs star" difference that you get separation:

MVP: 8-0
Finals: 16-5
Champions: 8-3

Even there, the finals/champs from #3 were often not completely dominant the way the #1s were. (Billups and Pau vs. Duncan and Lebron, for example).

You might think that if go back father and hit Jordan and things even up quite a bit, but they don't. Shaq, Magic and Hakeem more than offset him.

And of course there's a caveat here which is that we will also likely get another top 5 pick. It's unlikely to net us a transcendent player, but it will help.

Overall, really good post, TP.

But c'mon, that's at least a toss-up. Before injuries Elton Brand was a monster.

Edit: I emboldened it, but it barely shows 

That was the last one I picked and I was on the fence. Fair enough.

[gouki88]

Just for kicks I went back and matched up the #1 and #3 from every draft

2015: KAT*            Okafor
2014: Wiggins         Embiid
2013: Bennett         Porter*
2012: A. Davis*       Beal
2011: Kyrie*          Kanter
2010: Wall*           Favors
2009: Blake G.        Harden
2008: Rose*           Mayo
2007: Oden*           Horford
2006: Bargnani*       Morrison
2005: Bogut           Deron W.
2004: D. Howard*      B Gordon
2003: Lebron*         Carmelo
2002: Yao*            Dunleavy
2001: Kwame           P Gasol*
2000: K Martin        D Miles
1999: E Brand         B Davis*
1998: Olowokandi      LaFrentz*
1997: Duncan*         Billups
1996: Iverson*        Abdur-Rahim

I have asterisked the better player in each case (setting aside injury). No asterisks for toss-ups.

The first pick wins that battle 12-4 IMO. There are some close calls and some clear calls obviously.

It's when you get to the "elite vs star" difference that you get separation:

MVP: 8-0
Finals: 16-5
Champions: 8-3

Even there, the finals/champs from #3 were often not completely dominant the way the #1s were. (Billups and Pau vs. Duncan and Lebron, for example).

You might think that if go back father and hit Jordan and things even up quite a bit, but they don't. Shaq, Magic and Hakeem more than offset him.

And of course there's a caveat here which is that we will also likely get another top 5 pick. It's unlikely to net us a transcendent player, but it will help.

Overall, really good post, TP.

But c'mon, that's at least a toss-up. Before injuries Elton Brand was a monster.

Edit: I emboldened it, but it barely shows 

That was the last one I picked and I was on the fence. Fair enough.

In all seriousness, this is a pretty interesting post.

Besides a couple of brain-fart picks (Bennett being the most notable, followed by Kwame), the #1 is almost always quite comfortably better.

And we gave up our first #1 in forever 

[Big333223]

Just for kicks I went back and matched up the #1 and #3 from every draft

2015: KAT*            Okafor
2014: Wiggins         Embiid
2013: Bennett         Porter*
2012: A. Davis*       Beal
2011: Kyrie*          Kanter
2010: Wall*           Favors
2009: Blake G.        Harden
2008: Rose*           Mayo
2007: Oden*           Horford
2006: Bargnani*       Morrison
2005: Bogut           Deron W.
2004: D. Howard*      B Gordon
2003: Lebron*         Carmelo
2002: Yao*            Dunleavy
2001: Kwame           P Gasol*
2000: K Martin        D Miles
1999: E Brand         B Davis*
1998: Olowokandi      LaFrentz*
1997: Duncan*         Billups
1996: Iverson*        Abdur-Rahim

I have asterisked the better player in each case (setting aside injury). No asterisks for toss-ups.

The first pick wins that battle 12-4 IMO. There are some close calls and some clear calls obviously.

It's when you get to the "elite vs star" difference that you get separation:

MVP: 8-0
Finals: 16-5
Champions: 8-3

Even there, the finals/champs from #3 were often not completely dominant the way the #1s were. (Billups and Pau vs. Duncan and Lebron, for example).

You might think that if go back father and hit Jordan and things even up quite a bit, but they don't. Shaq, Magic and Hakeem more than offset him.

And of course there's a caveat here which is that we will also likely get another top 5 pick. It's unlikely to net us a transcendent player, but it will help.

Overall, really good post, TP.

But c'mon, that's at least a toss-up. Before injuries Elton Brand was a monster.

Edit: I emboldened it, but it barely shows 

That was the last one I picked and I was on the fence. Fair enough.

I know that you wrote "setting aside injury" but you've got Oden over Horford. That's ridiculous.

[CelticGuardian]

I go away for 4 months. Come back expecting us primed to select the premier talent in this year's draft... now here we are with more questions than answers. We definitely have the most comfortable GM in the league...