Bear with me here. So to me, the timing and details of this trade imply several things:
1) Danny is pretty certain that we're going to sign a max free agent this summer, so that extra space created by moving down is certainly valuable. And there's some precedent to this, too. Two seasons ago Danny decided not to try and trade for Horford at the deadline due to thinking he could sign him in free agency, and that's what ultimately happened. With all of the recent rumors about Hayward and Griffin, I'm guessing that Danny knows he's already got one of those in the bag, probably Hayward.
2) However, Danny also has to consider what moving down and collecting FUTURE assets looks like to free agents. If Danny is looking like he's doing more for the future than the present, then that seemingly hurts his case for free agents. Why would Hayward (largely assumed to be our first choice in free agency) want to come to a team already boasting Crowder, Brown, AND Jackson? That glut of wings/swings is not really ideal given our other team needs.
3) Thus, combining number 2 above with the timing of this deal, it ultimately seems that Danny is aiming to trade for another star with some of the assets that we're getting back. The timing of this deal seems to make this a near certainty for me. If Danny was really focused on getting Jackson, then this deal wouldn't happen until draft night when he knew for certain who would be available when. The fact that he seems willing to do this now (with Philly being the ones waiting on a Fultz workout) implies that he has no real interest in making this pick at 3, since he'll ship it off in a trade anyways.
Of course, he could value Ball, Jackson, and Tatum all similarly enough that he wouldn't care who he gets at 3, and the accumulative value of the deal might be enough of an offset for him. However, that seems highly unlikely to me, especially given the fact that literally none of them have worked out for us yet. Further, Danny recently this season made comments regarding "quality over quantity" being part of our needs, so even if there is more overall quantitative value to be had from such a deal and getting more picks, Danny's recent comments about qualitative value seem to fly in the face of such a deal. All of these things point to a trade to me for sure.
4A) Finally, the main asset of the deal coming back (the LA Pick) has significant potential, but it's far from a sure thing. Compare the status of the Brooklyn pick with the status of the Lakers pick: while they both have similar potential, the Lakers pick is much less certain due to LA having many more assets that they can use to trade for upgrades now.
This is especially frightening given LA's affinity for George. Now many have assumed that they'll wait for free agency to try and get George rather than trade for him now, but that could change very fast if we end up with the LA pick and even more assets to try and get George. If we end up with the Lakers pick, then trading for George now makes much more sense for LA because 1) that would more than likely ensure that he stays there long-term and stops us from trying to trade for him and convince him to stay in Boston, and 2) it helps Magic to screw Boston and Ainge by making that pick much worse, which is certainly attractive to him.
However, if we plan on trading for George right after the Philly deal, then this concern about the LA pick isn't warranted. Further, George is a much better fit for us than Butler, and he's almost certain to be traded by the deadline with us showing significant interest in him previously. Having George in the bag would also make us that much more attractive to Hayward or Griffin in free agency.
4B) Using this same logic except for a Butler trade, if we plan on using the LA pick as part of a deal for Butler, then this concern about LA getting better is again not warranted. What's more, given Crowder's comments about Hayward this past season and the fact that Crowder was a sticking point in earlier Butler trade proposals, this might be killing two birds with one stone. If Crowder goes away as part of a Butler deal, then that solves the potential chemistry issue between him and Hayward, and that could be the extra motive that Danny needs to finally part with Crowder in such a deal, which he was unwilling to do previously.
So all of that being said, I think it seems pretty clear that we intend to trade some of those assets coming back from any Philly deal that materializes.
Of course, I don't necessarily agree with this deal. I'd probably much rather go with Hayward and Fultz moving forward, but that just doesn't seem to be in the cards at this point. However, if this trade would land us a starting lineup of IT, Brown, Hayward, George, and Horford moving forward (which matches up very well with Golden State) all while keeping the Brooklyn pick in 2018 and even adding some more picks to the treasure chest, it might not be too bad of a deal for us. Ultimately, the question would be whether or not we could keep that core group long-term financially.
I think this is pretty reasonably thought out.
I agree that Danny has to have something else lined up to justify giving up the top pick in the draft. it can't just be about moving down to get a player he likes more than Fultz and some extra picks.
I think part of the allure is to impact the cap so he can sign a top FA if indeed he does keep the #3. However, I think the fact he's not working out a lot of the top players suggests that pick (and possibly the other picks coming in the trade) is being used in a deal to bring in a top player to go with the top FA he's targetting.
- if it's the pie in the sky deal for AD -- awesome but just cannot see that happening
- if it's for Butler, he's an improvement over AB overall and frees up AB to be used in a deal for a big man. can only hope Danny doesn't move 2 high-level picks for Butler.
- if it's for PG, I'm not digging that due to the 1 year left on his deal. if it's him, I'd consider the Laker pick but keep the rest and use salary filler for him
if he gets AD in the trade, need to get Hayward as the FA. if he gets Butler or PG, I think the move is Griffin with possibly Milsap as the backup option.
in the end, the only move to me that moves the needle enough to justify these moves is getting AD. I don't see adding Hayward, Butler or PG as enough of a justification to pass up Fultz.
Topic: Trading down has to be setting Danny up for a trade - only way this makes sense (Read 5180 times)