I prefer Hayward.
That would be because Hayward is far better.
Yes, but salary wise, Melo's contract is more attractive. You'd have to offer Hayward $30 mil or convince him to take a slight paycut.
Melo has a $26+ million contract and a 15% trade kicker. I don't have the exact math, but Carmelo will be just as expensive as Hayward this year.
But Melo would only cost us that for one year - two at most. Assuming he accepts his option here, he'd be around 34 at the end of this deal and would probably be about ready to retire . Horford would be around 33 at that time, will probably not be starting calibre anymore, will have one year on his contract, and will probably be about ready to retire himself.
Melo's deal comes off the books in a year, Horford's comes off a year later, and we can use that $60M in cap space to sign a big free agent.
By that time we're likely a contender, and Fultz is likely showing his potential, and chances are every free agent will look at us...so having that cap space will be very nice.
Hayward on the other hand would cost us upwards of $30M for the next 4-5 years, and when you factor that in (plus a likely max extension for Thomas) that leaves us in a pretty bad position once Horford's contract expires - since we'll probably be more than $30M above the cap, so Horford's contract expiring will do little for us...and if Hayward proves to not be the difference making franchise player some seem to believe he will be (as I expect he will not) then we could be in a bit of a screwed position.
I also think that Fultz could probably learn a great deal from Melo, who is not only a highly confident and competitive player, but is also one of the most skilled offensive players of this generation. Carmelo in his prime was an infinitely superior offensive player then Hayward is now. Hell even current day Carmelo (at 32 YO) may still be a superior offensive player to Hayward.
The most important part however, is this.
Lebron James is not twitching an eyelid knowing he's facing up against Hayward. Gordon Hayward is not a concern to Lebron James. Gordon Hayward is not a threat to Lebron James. To Lebron James, Gordon Hayward is just another kid lining up to be demoralised, and Gordon Hayward probably knows it. I don't see Hayward having a "Lebron killer" personality. He doesn't believe he can beat Lebron - no matter what he says.
However if Lebron James knows that he's facing up against Carmelo Anthony in a 7 game series - you have got his attention. Lebron James knows Carmelo is one of the most capable scorers of this generation. Lebron James knows Carmelo Anthony is one of the most clutch scorers of this generation. Lebron James knows Carmelo Anthony is capable of scoring 62 points in three quarters if he's hot - because he's done it before.
If you have Carmelo on your team, I can GUARANTEE you Lebron James is a little bit worried. Not "oh crap, I cant beat that guy" worried, of course. But worried in a sense that he knows if Carmelo goes completely crazy on offence (which he is capable of doing on any night), then he's capable of single highhandedly winning games - and he's capable of out-duelling Lebron himself.
Right now, Boston doesn't really have anybody who can do that - and I don't believe that adding Gordon Hayward changes that.