This is what I found.

Out of 100 tries, the Celtics ended up with the 1st pick 29 times, the 2nd pick 21 times, the third pick 16 times, and the 4th pick 34 times.

At the 1 spot, we drafted Fultz 29 times in a row, or 100% of the time.
At the 2 spot, we drafted Fultz 12 times and Ball 9 times. This means we end up with Fultz 57% of the time even if we draft 2nd.
At the 3 spot, we drafted Jackson 15 times and Fultz 1 time (when the Lakers picked Ball first and the Suns took Jackson second). This means that, even at the third spot, we end up with Fultz 6% of the time.
At the 4 spot, we drafted Tatum 34 out of 34 times.

It seems that ESPN has our big board as Fultz > Ball > Jackson > Tatum which is not surprising at all.

Feel free to join in the "Fun" here's a link to my raw spreadsheet. Next time I do this I'll track whether or not the Lakers lose their pick. I wish I'd done it from the start.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hfFXwgYNEAT4xloKSo8pRpFGTqu5sxrt5cU053t4LVw/edit?usp=sharing

That's what the computer machine says but wonder what Danny Ainge's mind says.

"I know, lets draft Lonzo Ball or Jayson Tatum with the #1 pick!" 

100 times???

Maybe a little bit too much time on your hands? Lol

Quote from: rocknrollforyoursoul on May 02, 2017, 01:42:02 PM

Quote from: positivitize on May 02, 2017, 11:23:55 AM

This is what I found.

Out of 100 tries, the Celtics ended up with the 1st pick 29 times, the 2nd pick 21 times, the third pick 16 times, and the 4th pick 34 times.

At the 1 spot, we drafted Fultz 29 times in a row, or 100% of the time.
At the 2 spot, we drafted Fultz 12 times and Ball 9 times. This means we end up with Fultz 57% of the time even if we draft 2nd.
At the 3 spot, we drafted Jackson 15 times and Fultz 1 time (when the Lakers picked Ball first and the Suns took Jackson second). This means that, even at the third spot, we end up with Fultz 6% of the time.
At the 4 spot, we drafted Tatum 34 out of 34 times.

It seems that ESPN has our big board as Fultz > Ball > Jackson > Tatum which is not surprising at all.

Feel free to join in the "Fun" here's a link to my raw spreadsheet. Next time I do this I'll track whether or not the Lakers lose their pick. I wish I'd done it from the start.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hfFXwgYNEAT4xloKSo8pRpFGTqu5sxrt5cU053t4LVw/edit?usp=sharing

A couple weeks back I tried it a mere 10 times and got basically the same proportions: first and fourth were the most common slots landed, with fourth slightly more than first. Most common pick at No. 1 was Fultz, and at No. 4 was Tatum.

So, I'm guessing that, according to the odds, if Boston doesn't get the No. 1 pick, the next most likely is the No. 4 pick? If true, that seems crappy.

Not quite. According to the odds, #4 is most likey with 35.7%, followed by #1 at 25%, then #2 at 21.5%, and finally #3 at 17.8%

Quote from: rocknrollforyoursoul on May 02, 2017, 01:42:02 PM

Quote from: positivitize on May 02, 2017, 11:23:55 AM

This is what I found.

Out of 100 tries, the Celtics ended up with the 1st pick 29 times, the 2nd pick 21 times, the third pick 16 times, and the 4th pick 34 times.

At the 1 spot, we drafted Fultz 29 times in a row, or 100% of the time.
At the 2 spot, we drafted Fultz 12 times and Ball 9 times. This means we end up with Fultz 57% of the time even if we draft 2nd.
At the 3 spot, we drafted Jackson 15 times and Fultz 1 time (when the Lakers picked Ball first and the Suns took Jackson second). This means that, even at the third spot, we end up with Fultz 6% of the time.
At the 4 spot, we drafted Tatum 34 out of 34 times.

It seems that ESPN has our big board as Fultz > Ball > Jackson > Tatum which is not surprising at all.

Feel free to join in the "Fun" here's a link to my raw spreadsheet. Next time I do this I'll track whether or not the Lakers lose their pick. I wish I'd done it from the start.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hfFXwgYNEAT4xloKSo8pRpFGTqu5sxrt5cU053t4LVw/edit?usp=sharing

A couple weeks back I tried it a mere 10 times and got basically the same proportions: first and fourth were the most common slots landed, with fourth slightly more than first. Most common pick at No. 1 was Fultz, and at No. 4 was Tatum.

So, I'm guessing that, according to the odds, if Boston doesn't get the No. 1 pick, the next most likely is the No. 4 pick? If true, that seems crappy.

Not quite. According to the odds, #4 is most likey with 35.7%, followed by #1 at 25%, then #2 at 21.5%, and finally #3 at 17.8%

Quote from: rocknrollforyoursoul on May 02, 2017, 01:42:02 PM

Quote from: positivitize on May 02, 2017, 11:23:55 AM

This is what I found.

Out of 100 tries, the Celtics ended up with the 1st pick 29 times, the 2nd pick 21 times, the third pick 16 times, and the 4th pick 34 times.

At the 1 spot, we drafted Fultz 29 times in a row, or 100% of the time.
At the 2 spot, we drafted Fultz 12 times and Ball 9 times. This means we end up with Fultz 57% of the time even if we draft 2nd.
At the 3 spot, we drafted Jackson 15 times and Fultz 1 time (when the Lakers picked Ball first and the Suns took Jackson second). This means that, even at the third spot, we end up with Fultz 6% of the time.
At the 4 spot, we drafted Tatum 34 out of 34 times.

It seems that ESPN has our big board as Fultz > Ball > Jackson > Tatum which is not surprising at all.

Feel free to join in the "Fun" here's a link to my raw spreadsheet. Next time I do this I'll track whether or not the Lakers lose their pick. I wish I'd done it from the start.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hfFXwgYNEAT4xloKSo8pRpFGTqu5sxrt5cU053t4LVw/edit?usp=sharing

A couple weeks back I tried it a mere 10 times and got basically the same proportions: first and fourth were the most common slots landed, with fourth slightly more than first. Most common pick at No. 1 was Fultz, and at No. 4 was Tatum.

So, I'm guessing that, according to the odds, if Boston doesn't get the No. 1 pick, the next most likely is the No. 4 pick? If true, that seems crappy.

Look on the bright side: We'll know if we got the fourth pick well before we know if we got the first so, if we make it past that point, our next most-likely pick is the first.

BTW, am I the only person who thinks that DA takes Jackson at 2, not Ball?

Mike

Quote from: rocknrollforyoursoul on May 02, 2017, 01:42:02 PM

.

So, I'm guessing that, according to the odds, if Boston doesn't get the No. 1 pick, the next most likely is the No. 4 pick? If true, that seems crappy.

I think the lottery odds justify the result... And considering the C's lottery past i wouldn't be surprised even if the pick falls outside the 1st round!