I clicked the NBA Lottery Machine 100 times (so you don't have to)

[positivitize]

This is what I found.

Out of 100 tries, the Celtics ended up with the 1st pick 29 times, the 2nd pick 21 times, the third pick 16 times, and the 4th pick 34 times.

At the 1 spot, we drafted Fultz 29 times in a row, or 100% of the time.
At the 2 spot, we drafted Fultz 12 times and Ball 9 times. This means we end up with Fultz 57% of the time even if we draft 2nd.
At the 3 spot, we drafted Jackson 15 times and Fultz 1 time (when the Lakers picked Ball first and the Suns took Jackson second). This means that, even at the third spot, we end up with Fultz 6% of the time.
At the 4 spot, we drafted Tatum 34 out of 34 times.

It seems that ESPN has our big board as Fultz > Ball > Jackson > Tatum which is not surprising at all.

Feel free to join in the "Fun" here's a link to my raw spreadsheet. Next time I do this I'll track whether or not the Lakers lose their pick. I wish I'd done it from the start.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hfFXwgYNEAT4xloKSo8pRpFGTqu5sxrt5cU053t4LVw/edit?usp=sharing

[Tr1boy]

This is what I found.

Out of 100 tries, the Celtics ended up with the 1st pick 29 times, the 2nd pick 21 times, the third pick 16 times, and the 4th pick 34 times.

At the 1 spot, we drafted Fultz 29 times in a row, or 100% of the time.
At the 2 spot, we drafted Fultz 12 times and Ball 9 times. This means we end up with Fultz 57% of the time even if we draft 2nd.
At the 3 spot, we drafted Jackson 15 times and Fultz 1 time (when the Lakers picked Ball first and the Suns took Jackson second). This means that, even at the third spot, we end up with Fultz 6% of the time.
At the 4 spot, we drafted Tatum 34 out of 34 times.

It seems that ESPN has our big board as Fultz > Ball > Jackson > Tatum which is not surprising at all.

Feel free to join in the "Fun" here's a link to my raw spreadsheet. Next time I do this I'll track whether or not the Lakers lose their pick. I wish I'd done it from the start.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hfFXwgYNEAT4xloKSo8pRpFGTqu5sxrt5cU053t4LVw/edit?usp=sharing

Thanks!

[droopdog7]

Good work.  I am going to imagine that fultz is falling to second with the lakers get the first pick.  I wouldn't really count on that happening though I get it.  Don't think the lakers are going to pick Ball over a better player just for the hometown aspect.

I still think that Ball is the one that falls a little bit and the worst case scenario for us will be to end up at #4 and have Ball still there.  Fingers crossed.

[SparzWizard]

That's what the computer machine says but wonder what Danny Ainge's mind says.

"I know, lets draft Lonzo Ball or Jayson Tatum with the #1 pick!" 

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

This is what I found.

Out of 100 tries, the Celtics ended up with the 1st pick 29 times, the 2nd pick 21 times, the third pick 16 times, and the 4th pick 34 times.

At the 1 spot, we drafted Fultz 29 times in a row, or 100% of the time.
At the 2 spot, we drafted Fultz 12 times and Ball 9 times. This means we end up with Fultz 57% of the time even if we draft 2nd.
At the 3 spot, we drafted Jackson 15 times and Fultz 1 time (when the Lakers picked Ball first and the Suns took Jackson second). This means that, even at the third spot, we end up with Fultz 6% of the time.
At the 4 spot, we drafted Tatum 34 out of 34 times.

It seems that ESPN has our big board as Fultz > Ball > Jackson > Tatum which is not surprising at all.

Feel free to join in the "Fun" here's a link to my raw spreadsheet. Next time I do this I'll track whether or not the Lakers lose their pick. I wish I'd done it from the start.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hfFXwgYNEAT4xloKSo8pRpFGTqu5sxrt5cU053t4LVw/edit?usp=sharing

A couple weeks back I tried it a mere 10 times and got basically the same proportions: first and fourth were the most common slots landed, with fourth slightly more than first. Most common pick at No. 1 was Fultz, and at No. 4 was Tatum.

So, I'm guessing that, according to the odds, if Boston doesn't get the No. 1 pick, the next most likely is the No. 4 pick? If true, that seems crappy.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

That's what the computer machine says but wonder what Danny Ainge's mind says.

"I know, lets draft Lonzo Ball or Jayson Tatum with the #1 pick!" 

Or maybe Dennis Smith Jr.?

[mef730]

This is what I found.

Out of 100 tries, the Celtics ended up with the 1st pick 29 times, the 2nd pick 21 times, the third pick 16 times, and the 4th pick 34 times.

At the 1 spot, we drafted Fultz 29 times in a row, or 100% of the time.
At the 2 spot, we drafted Fultz 12 times and Ball 9 times. This means we end up with Fultz 57% of the time even if we draft 2nd.
At the 3 spot, we drafted Jackson 15 times and Fultz 1 time (when the Lakers picked Ball first and the Suns took Jackson second). This means that, even at the third spot, we end up with Fultz 6% of the time.
At the 4 spot, we drafted Tatum 34 out of 34 times.

It seems that ESPN has our big board as Fultz > Ball > Jackson > Tatum which is not surprising at all.

Feel free to join in the "Fun" here's a link to my raw spreadsheet. Next time I do this I'll track whether or not the Lakers lose their pick. I wish I'd done it from the start.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hfFXwgYNEAT4xloKSo8pRpFGTqu5sxrt5cU053t4LVw/edit?usp=sharing

A couple weeks back I tried it a mere 10 times and got basically the same proportions: first and fourth were the most common slots landed, with fourth slightly more than first. Most common pick at No. 1 was Fultz, and at No. 4 was Tatum.

So, I'm guessing that, according to the odds, if Boston doesn't get the No. 1 pick, the next most likely is the No. 4 pick? If true, that seems crappy.

Look on the bright side: We'll know if we got the fourth pick well before we know if we got the first so, if we make it past that point, our next most-likely pick is the first.

BTW, am I the only person who thinks that DA takes Jackson at 2, not Ball?

Mike

[PAOBoston]

100 times???

Maybe a little bit too much time on your hands? Lol

[BitterJim]

This is what I found.

Out of 100 tries, the Celtics ended up with the 1st pick 29 times, the 2nd pick 21 times, the third pick 16 times, and the 4th pick 34 times.

At the 1 spot, we drafted Fultz 29 times in a row, or 100% of the time.
At the 2 spot, we drafted Fultz 12 times and Ball 9 times. This means we end up with Fultz 57% of the time even if we draft 2nd.
At the 3 spot, we drafted Jackson 15 times and Fultz 1 time (when the Lakers picked Ball first and the Suns took Jackson second). This means that, even at the third spot, we end up with Fultz 6% of the time.
At the 4 spot, we drafted Tatum 34 out of 34 times.

It seems that ESPN has our big board as Fultz > Ball > Jackson > Tatum which is not surprising at all.

Feel free to join in the "Fun" here's a link to my raw spreadsheet. Next time I do this I'll track whether or not the Lakers lose their pick. I wish I'd done it from the start.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hfFXwgYNEAT4xloKSo8pRpFGTqu5sxrt5cU053t4LVw/edit?usp=sharing

A couple weeks back I tried it a mere 10 times and got basically the same proportions: first and fourth were the most common slots landed, with fourth slightly more than first. Most common pick at No. 1 was Fultz, and at No. 4 was Tatum.

So, I'm guessing that, according to the odds, if Boston doesn't get the No. 1 pick, the next most likely is the No. 4 pick? If true, that seems crappy.

Not quite. According to the odds, #4 is most likey with 35.7%, followed by #1 at 25%, then #2 at 21.5%, and finally #3 at 17.8%

[positivitize]

100 times???

Maybe a little bit too much time on your hands? Lol

It didn't take that long! Next time I get bored and do it I'm gonna note if the Lakers keep their picks and the lowest each prospect goes.

[ederson]

.

So, I'm guessing that, according to the odds, if Boston doesn't get the No. 1 pick, the next most likely is the No. 4 pick? If true, that seems crappy.

I think the lottery odds justify the result... And considering the C's lottery past i wouldn't be surprised even if the pick falls outside the 1st round!
 

[RockinRyA]

This is what I found.

Out of 100 tries, the Celtics ended up with the 1st pick 29 times, the 2nd pick 21 times, the third pick 16 times, and the 4th pick 34 times.

At the 1 spot, we drafted Fultz 29 times in a row, or 100% of the time.
At the 2 spot, we drafted Fultz 12 times and Ball 9 times. This means we end up with Fultz 57% of the time even if we draft 2nd.
At the 3 spot, we drafted Jackson 15 times and Fultz 1 time (when the Lakers picked Ball first and the Suns took Jackson second). This means that, even at the third spot, we end up with Fultz 6% of the time.
At the 4 spot, we drafted Tatum 34 out of 34 times.

It seems that ESPN has our big board as Fultz > Ball > Jackson > Tatum which is not surprising at all.

Feel free to join in the "Fun" here's a link to my raw spreadsheet. Next time I do this I'll track whether or not the Lakers lose their pick. I wish I'd done it from the start.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hfFXwgYNEAT4xloKSo8pRpFGTqu5sxrt5cU053t4LVw/edit?usp=sharing

A couple weeks back I tried it a mere 10 times and got basically the same proportions: first and fourth were the most common slots landed, with fourth slightly more than first. Most common pick at No. 1 was Fultz, and at No. 4 was Tatum.

So, I'm guessing that, according to the odds, if Boston doesn't get the No. 1 pick, the next most likely is the No. 4 pick? If true, that seems crappy.

Not quite. According to the odds, #4 is most likey with 35.7%, followed by #1 at 25%, then #2 at 21.5%, and finally #3 at 17.8%

Like I said before, its a matter of perspective. You could say that the odds are great we end up fourth, but I would say the odds are greater we would end up 1-3.

[positivitize]

Good work.  I am going to imagine that fultz is falling to second with the lakers get the first pick.  I wouldn't really count on that happening though I get it.  Don't think the lakers are going to pick Ball over a better player just for the hometown aspect.

I still think that Ball is the one that falls a little bit and the worst case scenario for us will be to end up at #4 and have Ball still there.  Fingers crossed.

Both the Lakers and Suns prefer Ball to Fultz (according to what I've heard / the machine). The machine Suns even prefer Jackson to Fultz (which I think is crazy)

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

This is what I found.

Out of 100 tries, the Celtics ended up with the 1st pick 29 times, the 2nd pick 21 times, the third pick 16 times, and the 4th pick 34 times.

At the 1 spot, we drafted Fultz 29 times in a row, or 100% of the time.
At the 2 spot, we drafted Fultz 12 times and Ball 9 times. This means we end up with Fultz 57% of the time even if we draft 2nd.
At the 3 spot, we drafted Jackson 15 times and Fultz 1 time (when the Lakers picked Ball first and the Suns took Jackson second). This means that, even at the third spot, we end up with Fultz 6% of the time.
At the 4 spot, we drafted Tatum 34 out of 34 times.

It seems that ESPN has our big board as Fultz > Ball > Jackson > Tatum which is not surprising at all.

Feel free to join in the "Fun" here's a link to my raw spreadsheet. Next time I do this I'll track whether or not the Lakers lose their pick. I wish I'd done it from the start.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hfFXwgYNEAT4xloKSo8pRpFGTqu5sxrt5cU053t4LVw/edit?usp=sharing

A couple weeks back I tried it a mere 10 times and got basically the same proportions: first and fourth were the most common slots landed, with fourth slightly more than first. Most common pick at No. 1 was Fultz, and at No. 4 was Tatum.

So, I'm guessing that, according to the odds, if Boston doesn't get the No. 1 pick, the next most likely is the No. 4 pick? If true, that seems crappy.

Not quite. According to the odds, #4 is most likey with 35.7%, followed by #1 at 25%, then #2 at 21.5%, and finally #3 at 17.8%

Ah, yes. I think that's what I meant to say. Thanks for the correction.

This is what I found.

Out of 100 tries, the Celtics ended up with the 1st pick 29 times, the 2nd pick 21 times, the third pick 16 times, and the 4th pick 34 times.

At the 1 spot, we drafted Fultz 29 times in a row, or 100% of the time.
At the 2 spot, we drafted Fultz 12 times and Ball 9 times. This means we end up with Fultz 57% of the time even if we draft 2nd.
At the 3 spot, we drafted Jackson 15 times and Fultz 1 time (when the Lakers picked Ball first and the Suns took Jackson second). This means that, even at the third spot, we end up with Fultz 6% of the time.
At the 4 spot, we drafted Tatum 34 out of 34 times.

It seems that ESPN has our big board as Fultz > Ball > Jackson > Tatum which is not surprising at all.

Feel free to join in the "Fun" here's a link to my raw spreadsheet. Next time I do this I'll track whether or not the Lakers lose their pick. I wish I'd done it from the start.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hfFXwgYNEAT4xloKSo8pRpFGTqu5sxrt5cU053t4LVw/edit?usp=sharing

A couple weeks back I tried it a mere 10 times and got basically the same proportions: first and fourth were the most common slots landed, with fourth slightly more than first. Most common pick at No. 1 was Fultz, and at No. 4 was Tatum.

So, I'm guessing that, according to the odds, if Boston doesn't get the No. 1 pick, the next most likely is the No. 4 pick? If true, that seems crappy.

Look on the bright side: We'll know if we got the fourth pick well before we know if we got the first so, if we make it past that point, our next most-likely pick is the first.

BTW, am I the only person who thinks that DA takes Jackson at 2, not Ball?

Mike

I like your approach. Here's to hoping they don't call the Cs at No. 4!

And no, I wouldn't be surprised if Ainge took Jackson at No. 2.

.

So, I'm guessing that, according to the odds, if Boston doesn't get the No. 1 pick, the next most likely is the No. 4 pick? If true, that seems crappy.

I think the lottery odds justify the result... And considering the C's lottery past i wouldn't be surprised even if the pick falls outside the 1st round!
 

Yeah, I don't trust the lottery as far as I can throw it. And there have certainly been times when I have wanted to throw it. Down the toilet.

[GreenEnvy]

Even if you did it 901 more times (there are 1001 combinations), it doesn't matter.

This isn't a "best of"... whatever happens that one time is what happens.

In two weeks we will finally have our answer. Let's enjoy the playoffs in the meantime.