Could Jaylen win ROTY?

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

No.  He's not even in the top 10 right now.

Not understanding that comment, sorry. Not in the top 10 seriously?

Embiid should get an incomplete. Saric will be hard to beat, kid is playing at a high level lately. If Brown keeps going the way he has been of late, he'll be in contention for sure.

I still think Embiid was so good he actually should win it in terms of total value provided.

But I completely get that 31 games ins't enough for people. Right now I'd say Saric, Brogdon and Brown are the top 3. To me that's 4/5 for the all rookie team. I'd probably throw Jamal Murray in there as #5. Or maybe Hernangomez.

I still think the premature declaration of this rookie class as awful is nuts. The 2013 class actually turned out a ton of good players, and we had no idea until year 3.

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

If Embiid had played 41 games, I think he'd be a lock.  Since he only played 31 games, it is going to be an interesting vote.   Embiid should still win ROY because of his sheer impact especially on defense.  He had a legitimate shot at being an all-star.  The Sixers are 23-38 overall but when Embiid played they were 17-14.  Just looking at 20pt games of the top 5 in the rookie ladder and Jaylen, Embiid dominates. 

20pt games:  Embiid 19, Saric 8, Brogdon 2, Chris 2, Hield 2, Jaylen 1

http://www.nba.com/rookie-ladder/

The Sixers have a 13-18 record with Embiid in the lineup this season for the record.

Tp.  I goofed that one up.  They were still much, much better with Embiid on the court.

+3.5 point differential with him on the court.

Boston is +2.65 right now FWIW...

He's a game changer, I kinda think he's headed for the "I hope(wish)(pray)(sell soul) we can get 3-4 decent playoff runs outta this guy" type career though. Which sucks, because he's hilarious and I'm a freakin sixers fan lol.

[Smitty77]

If Embiid had played 41 games, I think he'd be a lock.  Since he only played 31 games, it is going to be an interesting vote.   Embiid should still win ROY because of his sheer impact especially on defense.  He had a legitimate shot at being an all-star.  The Sixers are 23-38 overall but when Embiid played they were 17-14.  Just looking at 20pt games of the top 5 in the rookie ladder and Jaylen, Embiid dominates. 

20pt games:  Embiid 19, Saric 8, Brogdon 2, Chris 2, Hield 2, Jaylen 1

http://www.nba.com/rookie-ladder/

The Sixers have a 13-18 record with Embiid in the lineup this season for the record.

Tp.  I goofed that one up.  They were still much, much better with Embiid on the court.

+3.5 point differential with him on the court.

Boston is +2.65 right now FWIW...

He's a game changer, I kinda think he's headed for the "I hope(wish)(pray)(sell soul) we can get 3-4 decent playoff runs outta this guy" type career though. Which sucks, because he's hilarious and I'm a freakin sixers fan lol.

It sure as heck helps to NOT to have to play back to backs and to have a minutes restriction!!!  I want to see what he does when he plays 36 or more minutes per game and plays EVERY freaking game!!!!  Easy to be fresh under those circumstances!!!

Smitty77

[mr. dee]

Nah, it always go to the players with inflated stats by usg%

[RockinRyA]

Its probably Saric. Brown played too little minutes and a bit poor at the start. Basketball is more of what-have-you-done-for-me-lately though., so I believe Brown is better than most of the guys in the ladder, but wont make it due to numbers.

[trickybilly]

When o when will people start seriously looking at defense in ROY and MVP.

[Boris Badenov]

It's virtually certain that this year's winner will be the worst rookie to ever win it.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/roy.html

But, a more positive statement might be that I don't see anyone in the ROY pool that approaches Jaylen's value in trade, except for Simmons. I can't imagine that Danny would give Jaylen up for Embiid, or Saric, or Brogdon, or even Ingram.

[YoungOne87]

No.  He's not even in the top 10 right now.

Which is a TOTAL JOKE!!!!  The NBA Rookie Ladder is laughable!!!!  Whitehead is #7 and Ingram is #9 and they BOTH have PER's of 7.2.  Jaylen's is a 10.50.  And that does NOT say it all.  Jaylen hit the game clencher vs. the reigning World Champion Cavs and had 8 and 7 and he also had 19 and 5 at Cleveland earlier this year.  Jaylen plays for a team that has won 40 games already.  He has EARNED his minutes, not been given them!!  Hield has just 4 games with the Kings so you have to go by his PER at NO, which was lower than Jaylen's and he was and still is playing for a LOSING team.  Chriss' PER is .9 higher than Jaylen's, but the Suns have won HALF as many games as we have.  Siakam's PER is about .7 higher, but he has only played 4 of the last 10 games and is averaging only 10.8 minutes in those games and has ONLY played 2 minutes in March!!  Yogi has played very well for the Mavs, BUT, he has ONLY played for 15 games. 

Therefore, I would put Embiid (if you count him as a rookie even though he was drafted in 2014) and Saric (played 2 or more years of pro ball before coming over) ahead of JB.  I would put Brogdon ahead of him by a little due to him being a solid TWO-way player!!  Jaylen has more up side however!!  Willie H. deserves to be above him, but he played pro ball overseas too I believe. 

These reasons are why I think that NBA.com's Rookie ladder is a JOKE!!!!

Smitty77

I'm pretty sure that was against detroit not the cavs...
and comparing players soly on PER is not a joke?

[apc]

Who votes for ROY?

[Surferdad]

It's virtually certain that this year's winner will be the worst rookie to ever win it.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/roy.html

But, a more positive statement might be that I don't see anyone in the ROY pool that approaches Jaylen's value in trade, except for Simmons. I can't imagine that Danny would give Jaylen up for Embiid, or Saric, or Brogdon, or even Ingram.

Worse than MCW?  I think many of us knew he had already peaked out as a player in his rookie year.

[loco_91]

It's virtually certain that this year's winner will be the worst rookie to ever win it.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/roy.html

But, a more positive statement might be that I don't see anyone in the ROY pool that approaches Jaylen's value in trade, except for Simmons. I can't imagine that Danny would give Jaylen up for Embiid, or Saric, or Brogdon, or even Ingram.

I'd trade Jaylen for Embiid in a heartbeat.

[Surferdad]

It's virtually certain that this year's winner will be the worst rookie to ever win it.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/roy.html

But, a more positive statement might be that I don't see anyone in the ROY pool that approaches Jaylen's value in trade, except for Simmons. I can't imagine that Danny would give Jaylen up for Embiid, or Saric, or Brogdon, or even Ingram.

I'd trade Jaylen for Embiid in a heartbeat.

I might have a few months ago.  Now with Embiid's foot once again a concern, I'm not so sure.

[timpiker]

I think he's the favorite

[Smitty77]

No.  He's not even in the top 10 right now.

Which is a TOTAL JOKE!!!!  The NBA Rookie Ladder is laughable!!!!  Whitehead is #7 and Ingram is #9 and they BOTH have PER's of 7.2.  Jaylen's is a 10.50.  And that does NOT say it all.  Jaylen hit the game clencher vs. the reigning World Champion Cavs and had 8 and 7 and he also had 19 and 5 at Cleveland earlier this year.  Jaylen plays for a team that has won 40 games already.  He has EARNED his minutes, not been given them!!  Hield has just 4 games with the Kings so you have to go by his PER at NO, which was lower than Jaylen's and he was and still is playing for a LOSING team.  Chriss' PER is .9 higher than Jaylen's, but the Suns have won HALF as many games as we have.  Siakam's PER is about .7 higher, but he has only played 4 of the last 10 games and is averaging only 10.8 minutes in those games and has ONLY played 2 minutes in March!!  Yogi has played very well for the Mavs, BUT, he has ONLY played for 15 games. 

Therefore, I would put Embiid (if you count him as a rookie even though he was drafted in 2014) and Saric (played 2 or more years of pro ball before coming over) ahead of JB.  I would put Brogdon ahead of him by a little due to him being a solid TWO-way player!!  Jaylen has more up side however!!  Willie H. deserves to be above him, but he played pro ball overseas too I believe. 

These reasons are why I think that NBA.com's Rookie ladder is a JOKE!!!!

Smitty77

I'm pretty sure that was against detroit not the cavs...
and comparing players soly on PER is not a joke?

Wrong!!  It was at the Cavs on November 3rd!!!

http://sports.abs-cbn.com/nba/videos/2016/11/04/celtics-rookie-jaylen-brown-scores-19-loss-cavs-5210

http://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400899518

And, IF you were to read my post, I mention WHEN Jaylen is playing (late in games) and when he is coming up BIG BOTH offensively and defensively!!!!  That is more important than PER, which can be inflated by stat-stuffing in blow outs.  That being said, Jaylen plays on a 40 win team that rarely blows out teams (see our overall point differential, we win CLOSE games and have about the best record in the NBA in games decided by 5 or less points!!), so Jaylen rarely, if EVER, stuffs his stats like many on the joke of list, the ROY list!!!!

Smitty77

[droopdog7]

It's virtually certain that this year's winner will be the worst rookie to ever win it.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/roy.html

But, a more positive statement might be that I don't see anyone in the ROY pool that approaches Jaylen's value in trade, except for Simmons. I can't imagine that Danny would give Jaylen up for Embiid, or Saric, or Brogdon, or even Ingram.

Worse than MCW?  I think many of us knew he had already peaked out as a player in his rookie year.

See, you're conflating rookie performance with potential.  I thought MCW's rookie year was fine (not great of course).  But yeah, I didn't think he'd become s great player.

So sure, brown has a chance to be very good.  But has he earned the award even in a very down year?  No, not at all.  This probably is the year where embiid should win it in 30 games.