Who will have the best career?

[Surferdad]

The "less than 3 years experience" criteria eliminated Julius Randle (3), Andrew Wiggins (3), Giannis Antenekoumpo (4), and well as non All-Star vets Kemba Walker, Bradley Beal, Goran Dragic.  The All-Star criteria was strict: All-Rookie or All-NBA third team awardees not included.

I believe the players in this poll represent the most likely choices.  I could have cut the list back to 4-5 but thought the more complete list would be interesting for discussion of 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc.  To mask my own bias, I've listed them alphabetically.   

[adam8]

The "less than 3 years experience" criteria eliminated Julius Randle (3), Andrew Wiggins (3), Giannis Antenekoumpo (4), and well as non All-Star vets Kemba Walker, Bradley Beal, Goran Dragic.  The All-Star criteria was strict: All-Rookie or All-NBA third team awardees not included.

I believe the players in this poll represents the most likely choices.  I could have cut the list back to 4-5 but thought the more complete list would be interesting for discussion of 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc.  To mask my own bias, I've listed them alphabetically.   

For me toss up between KAT and Embiid at the moment, with Porzingis and Simmons also have very high end potential.

[Celtics4ever]

Towns for me, Embiid has talent and personality but he can be a goofball, which might lead to injury.

[Who]

I am going to go with Towns over Porzingis. I give Towns an edge for his passing ability and teamwork which is something Porzingis lacks. Both players need to grow up and take more responsibility on the defensive end though. They should both be high end defensive centers. Not PFs shrinking from their defensive duties.

I am not convinced Embiid will stay healthy. He is still a major injury risk in my eyes. However, if Embiid does stay healthy, he is clearly the most talented player here.

[greece66]

Injuries and luck can play a huge role in here are my two cents. First is best prospect, second is second best etc. (also even with hindsight, these things are strongly subjective- Chamberlain vs Russell is even today an emotional subjective question, although I am sure everyone here knows the correct answer  )

1. Karl Anthony-Towns
2. Kristaps Porzingis
3. Myles Turner

These three have proven themselves. I'm p confident about the order too.

4. Embiid

If healthy, Embiid belongs to the first group.

5. Booker

He is very young, and already a good scorer. Haven't watched enough the Suns the last two years + IMO good bigs usually have a greater value than good guards because they are rarer.

6. DLo
Liked his first year, not so much what I see this year. He is good, but nowhere close where KAT is.

7. Mudiay
He is still a project. He has guts and he is athletic, but certain aspects of his game (esp. shooting) are still raw. As a prospect I would take him over DLo. As a production in the current year, I prefer DLo - mainly because of Mudiay's TOs and bad decision making.

8. Ben Simmons/Jaylen Brown

Too early to say. Simmons is a great prospect, but has not played a single NBA game. Jaylen Brown is athletic and smart but raw. I can see them both becoming better than Mudiay and DLo given time, but let's return to this question in a year from now.

PS Do I miss something about how the list was composed?

All-Rookie or All-NBA third team awardees not included.

KAT (2016 ROY), Porzingis (2016 All Rookie), Turner (2016 All Rookie second team), Booker (2016 All Rookie), DLo (2016 All Rookie). This is literally the 2016 All Rookie team, what do I miss?

Moreover, the less than three year criterion mentioned in the OP is met by several players not included here (eg Jokic).

Apologies if I miss something, but just going through it the list reads like a random selection of players the OP was interested in; I love Brown, but does he belong in the same conversation as KAT? And if we are going to include Brown and Simmons, then why not Brogdon, Ingram and other prospects from the last draft?


 

[Surferdad]

...

PS Do I miss something about how the list was composed?

All-Rookie or All-NBA third team awardees not included.

KAT (2016 ROY), Porzingis (2016 All Rookie), Turner (2016 All Rookie second team), Booker (2016 All Rookie), DLo (2016 All Rookie). This is literally the 2016 All Rookie team, what do I miss?

Moreover, the less than three year criterion mentioned in the OP is met by several players not included here (eg Jokic).

Apologies if I miss something, but just going through it the list reads like a random selection of players the OP was interested in; I love Brown, but does he belong in the same conversation as KAT? And if we are going to include Brown and Simmons, then why not Brogdon, Ingram and other prospects from the last draft?

I need to clarify:  What I meant was that these awards are not eliminating factors. 

As far as Jokic and Ingram, I thought about including them so that was arbitrary on my part.  In retrospect, the poll really should have been limited to 3 choices: KAT, KP, Embiid.  Next tier down is Turner, Booker, Russell but even that's debatable.

[TrueFan]

I don't think Turner belongs on that list but other then him it's a cool list. Wish we could vote for 1st 2nd and 3rd.

[max215]

I don't think Turner belongs on that list but other then him it's a cool list. Wish we could vote for 1st 2nd and 3rd.

He belongs there more so than Russell, Mudiay, Brown, and maybe Booker.

[max215]

Towns easily for me. Embiid is the only other player on his level, but injury concerns make him the clear #2.

[footey]

Embiid and it's not even close. He makes his team win. Town doesn't.

[Rosco917]

For me it's Towns, I'm not sure of when, or if health is going to play a part with Embiid.

I'd never bet the house on his feet remaining trouble free for his entire career.

[liam]

Brown will be the one with the rings.

[Quetzalcoatl]

Towns' defense even with an elite, defensive minded coach is a train wreck.  For me, its between Porzingis and Embiid. 

Also, Jokic should be on that list.

[greece66]

@surferdad

Thanks for clarifying that. My bad regarding the all-rookie awards.

I think a debate about who is the best prospect among Porzingis, Embiid, Towns, and Jokic would allow for a more focused conversation.

[ThePaintedArea]

I said Towns, though mostly in order to see how everyone voted.

I'd guess Embiid, but foot injuries in 7-footers are big red flags - and his was early in his career.

Porzingis doesn't have a good looking body; if he makes it to 35 in the league I'd be surprised.  In his case it's the knees, which are toward the end of range of motion.  We shall see.

I know that this doesn't have a lot to do with talent, but if you're talking about a career it's the guys who last who make into the Hall.  Penny Hardaway had the talent, but he'll never be "in the discussion".