This franchise has had multiple opportunities for franchise players via the draft and whiffed in 1997 (though Billups developed into a great player for other teams), 2007 (though we made the best of it), 2014 (though Smart looks like a quality role player) and 2016 (though Jaylen may still develop into something special). We're due to actually land a special player. Considering it would likely take more than just that pick to land Premium Brand Ricky Davis, I'm definitely in the "no" camp. Keep the pick and let's hope for the best.
You realize you just made a convincing case for trading the pick and then decided you prefer the opposite, right?
I don't see Butler as a franchise player. Obviously the Bulls don't either. I'd rather keep the pick and try to land a franchise player than buying high and overpaying for an overrated guy who isn't going to move the needle enough.
Whether Butler is a franchise player isn't the question though. The question, as you (quite correctly) set it up, is whether you'd rather have Butler vs. Billups. Or Butler vs. Jeff Green. Or Butler vs. Smart. Or Butler vs. Jaylen Brown.
Because most of the time, that's who you're getting with a top 3 lottery slot.
I understand the motive to keep it because...what if?
But we have to recognize that "what if" turns into "franchise player" about 1 out of 10 times you have that top lottery slot. Maybe less often, depending on how you define the term.
You bring up a good point. But here's my perspective on each of those drafts.
1997 - Was seen as Duncan or bust. We busted, but actually made the most of it.
2007 - Oden or Durant or bust. We busted, but made the most of it.
2014 - Was seen as having several elite-level players. Top 3 were thought to be excellent. At least 5 others were thought to have star potential. We ended up with Smart (one of the players thought to have star potential at the time). He's been a disappointment, but still possibly developing.
2016 - Was seen as Simmons, to a lesser extent Ingram, or bust. We busted, but Jaylen might prove everyone wrong
2017 - From what I'm reading, this isn't a 1 player draft. It sounds like even if we end up with a pick in the 5-8 range, it's going to be a better prospect than anyone that was available to us last year. Multiple players with star potential.
Not all drafts are created equally. This one is apparently exceptional. I'd rather keep the pick and hope for the best (with pretty solid odds we'll get a great prospect) than give up this pick and other major assets for a guy who we know isn't superstar caliber.
So yes, I'd rather have Butler over Jeff Green, Billups, Smart or Jaylen...
But it sounds like there are some outstanding prospects available in this draft.