The Smart Thing Is To Just Keep The 2017 Nets Pick (No Trades)

[Phantom255x]

I'll admit, I've always been on the Paul George and DeMarcus Cousins hype train, and still am. But the more this season progresses, the more I think it's better to just keep the 2017 Nets Pick and keep building/improving.

My thinking goes like this:

1. Fultz.. Ball.. Tatum.. Jackson... Giles. Man this is going to be an exceptional draft that is also DEEP. Even if worst case scenario, the Celtics fall to like #5 or #6, they could take any of Giles/Tatum/Jackson and still have a tremendous draft night. The Wolves second rounder (likely around #35) could be valuable too in this DEEP draft.

2. The Kings are likely offering Cousins the "super-max extension" in excess of 200M, so I'd say he's untouchable 100%, and the Kings FO are desperate to make the playoffs and get swept by the Warriors  (But w/e to sell out the new arena and bring in revenue, right?).

3. The Pacers are on a 5 game winning streak, and the Bulls are winning as well. This probably makes the chances of PG13 or Butler getting traded go from 1% to 0.00001%. Honestly those are the other "marginally realistic" players I could have seen the C's be willing to deal the 2017 Nets Pick for to acquire (though I still don't think Butler is worth it but that's the price). The Price for any of PG13/Cousins/Butler will also cost you multiple other future picks, possibly two of Bradley/Crowder/Smart, in addition to the 2017 Nets Pick. Does that really improve this team long term if you give up that much in the first place?

4. Anthony Davis. Russell Westbrook. Those guys are complete pipe dreams so 0 chance.

5. On Draft Night, even if Cousins and PG13 are available, they would be EXPIRING deals (no way PG13 accepts his player option for the season after). Not worth giving up a ton for an expiring deal, just like the way the C's played it with Westbrook trade rumors before he signed the extension with OKC.

I think points #3 and #5 are vital points here. Draft someone, and then in FA sign Millsap/Ibaka/Noel with remaining cap space (this is the last summer Danny has with a max-contract slot - so he will sign someone). I doubt Hayward and Griffin are leaving their teams this summer either.

What do you guys think? 

[footey]

TP for the analysis, Phantom. I generally agree with you.  I would take it a step further. I don't think we should trade our 2018 Nets pick either.  Because that is the draft that has more quality bigs.  2017 is nice, but lacks decent bigs. Giles is the only one, and has injury red flags.

The next generation of stars in the NBA are the really long, athletic guys:  Embiid, Towns, Davis, Porzingis and Greek Freak.  I think Cousins is going to have trouble dealing with that length as they get better, which is why I'm not particularly keen on him anyway. 

We need to maximize our chance of getting the next really long, athletic stud.  2018 seems to have real prospects there, starting with Ayton and Bamba (7'10" wingspan).

[Ilikesports17]

I'm starting to come around on the '18 first. ive largely been pessimistic on the Nets the last two years. In '16 I thought they'd be in the 7-12 range and this year I expected them around #5, but I really can't see them pulling themselves out of the top 5 or 6 next year.

[Ogaju]

Another very important point is the age factor. LBJ and his Cavs own the east for the next 4 years or so. Making a huge trade now is a win now move that I do not think will be very successful. What the Celtics should be preparing for is the post LBJ era where the big competition in the East will be that BEAST that Philadelphia is building with Embiid, Simmons, Fultz/Ball, Saric and whatever they get for Okafor or Noel. That is the threat that Celtics should be preparing for, and that is why I am particularly glad that we have Danny at the helm. The focus should be on the future, and not the present.

[colincb]

FWIW, Steve Kyler who runs Basketball Insider and tweets a storm:

Steve Kyler ‏@stevekylerNBA 4h4 hours ago: Organization not going to be that patient. They want to win now.

Addi Eggerts @AEggerts
@sross1961 @stevekylerNBA Celtics should keep the picks. Get either Fultz, Smith or Ball this year and could get Ayton 2018.

[saltlover]

FWIW, Steve Kyler who runs Basketball Insider and tweets a storm:

Steve Kyler ‏@stevekylerNBA 4h4 hours ago: Organization not going to be that patient. They want to win now.

Addi Eggerts @AEggerts
@sross1961 @stevekylerNBA Celtics should keep the picks. Get either Fultz, Smith or Ball this year and could get Ayton 2018.

I've never felt Steve Kyler had a very good feel for either a) the Celtics or b) the quality of college players.

[GreenEnvy]

I'm coming around to the notion of making that pick untouchable.

My only hesistation is if bad teams hang around Brooklyn, come March and April, those teams will be shutting it down while Brooklyn will still be playing at 100% because they have no incentive to lose games. Granted, they aren't capable of many wins and could move Lopez, but you never know.

I would love Cousins and a chance at raising 18 soon, but with all the lottery picks we have, we can build a powerhouse over the next decade. On the other hand, the draft is always a crapshoot and we are a piece away right now from title contenders.

Ainge has a tough seven weeks ahead of him before the deadline. The good news is I don't think he can make a wrong choice. As long as he doesn't overpay, nobody should be mad if he trades the picks. And if we keep them, let's hope we finally get the lucky bounce of the lottery balls.


Whatever happens, happens. All I know is I'm going to continue enjoying watching this roster play entertaining - and winning - basketball.

[Csfan1984]

I think if you can get a top ten player you pull the trigger even on a one year if the guy also fits a need. I do agree in that I too don't see a top 10 guy being available though.

With mid impact guys I would not do a deal unless it was a Thomas level deal. So a deal where a team wants to tank and doesn't see a long term fit for decent player and gives him up for 60 cents on the dollar.

[Chief]

Does anyone think there was a promise to Hortford that more was going to happen?

Whether that was to sign Durant or cash in some of our picks.

[Phantom255x]

Another very important point is the age factor. LBJ and his Cavs own the east for the next 4 years or so. Making a huge trade now is a win now move that I do not think will be very successful. What the Celtics should be preparing for is the post LBJ era where the big competition in the East will be that BEAST that Philadelphia is building with Embiid, Simmons, Fultz/Ball, Saric and whatever they get for Okafor or Noel. That is the threat that Celtics should be preparing for, and that is why I am particularly glad that we have Danny at the helm. The focus should be on the future, and not the present.

While I agree with the general consensus, I really don't think the Celtics signed Al Horford to spend the next 3-4 years aiming for a 3-4 seed and not being legitimate contenders.

They obviously aren't right now, but if you add someone via the 2017 draft (using the pick or trading for a star), then sign someone like Millsap/Noel/Ibaka (or dream scenario - Hayward or Griffin), I think that makes this team legitimate contenders. Enough to even challenge Cleveland and Golden State in a playoff series (yep I'm that confident IF it plays out like that).

Even still, you have a growing young core with Smart, Brown, Etc. as well as hopefully signing Bradley and Isaiah Thomas to extensions. Plus the 2018 Nets Pick could help a ton (Ayton for example).

Ainge is doing a good job right now balancing the idea of having a legitimate contender but also having a great young core going forward post-Lebron.

[slightly biased bias fan]

For me Fultz is the number one pick and Tatum is two.

Fultz seems like a mixture of John Wall and Chris Paul but I always like to see how players run and he just floats, his ceiling seems to be the highest but Tatum seems to have the lowest floor of all the top tier players, he is very good rebounder and has Paul Pierce like traits to his game.

https://youtu.be/1mgr48gvtSc - Markelle Fultz (Washington) vs Oregon State // 1.7.17 // 20 Pts, 5 Ast

https://youtu.be/u7uGvXd3f00 - Jayson Tatum (Duke) vs Boston College // 1/7/17 // 22 Pts, 6 Reb

The only problem is we really need neither, if anything I'd much rather covert the 18 Brooklyn pick as there is some very good big men in that class.

[Boris Badenov]

It's worth pointing out that even a top 3 pick in a better-than-average draft is no guarantee.

Here's a recent list of draftees who were on par with the top 3-5 guys this year, or better, in terms of hype. I think this is a conservative list, in that we are still in the honeymoon phase with the 2017 class...a few of those guys will probably decline over the course of the year, as their games are scrutinized more closely.

KAT
Okafor
Russell
Wiggins
Parker
Embiid
A. Davis
Irving
Wall
Griffin
Rose
Beasley
Oden
Durant
Bogut
Marvin Williams
Deron Williams
CP3

I guess the question is, would you give up a random shot at one of these guys for Cousins?

By my reckoning there are three guys better than Cousins: CP3, Durant, and Davis.

A few guys are about equal: Rose, Wall, Irving, KAT. (For Rose, I'm talking about his pre-injury career as well as what happened since).

For all the excitement, the jury is still out on Embiid.

And the rest are either a little less valuable or a LOT less valuable. A Beasley-type outcome or an Oden-type outcome is a real possibility, you can't ignore it.

Either way, I think you have no higher than a 50/50 shot at matching or beating the Cousins outcome. And I think this probably overstates the odds, because there's no guarantee that someone like Josh Jackson will end up as a "tier 1" prospect. (Remember, Ingram was a "tier 1" who was downgraded by the end of the year).

Now, the thing is, the guys who do beat Cousins may be significantly more valuable, because of the importance of superstars. But it's worth noting that those guys have a total of zero rings between them.

[Ilikesports17]

It's worth pointing out that even a top 3 pick in a better-than-average draft is no guarantee.

Here's a recent list of draftees who were on par with the top 3-5 guys this year, or better, in terms of hype. I think this is a conservative list, in that we are still in the honeymoon phase with the 2017 class...a few of those guys will probably decline over the course of the year, as their games are scrutinized more closely.

KAT
Okafor
Russell
Wiggins
Parker
Embiid
A. Davis
Irving
Wall
Griffin
Rose
Beasley
Oden
Durant
Bogut
Marvin Williams
Deron Williams
CP3

I guess the question is, would you give up a random shot at one of these guys for Cousins?

By my reckoning there are three guys better than Cousins: CP3, Durant, and Davis.

A few guys are about equal: Rose, Wall, Irving, KAT. (For Rose, I'm talking about his pre-injury career as well as what happened since).

For all the excitement, the jury is still out on Embiid.

And the rest are either a little less valuable or a LOT less valuable. A Beasley-type outcome or an Oden-type outcome is a real possibility, you can't ignore it.

Either way, I think you have no higher than a 50/50 shot at matching or beating the Cousins outcome. And I think this probably overstates the odds, because there's no guarantee that someone like Josh Jackson will end up as a "tier 1" prospect. (Remember, Ingram was a "tier 1" who was downgraded by the end of the year).

Now, the thing is, the guys who do beat Cousins may be significantly more valuable, because of the importance of superstars. But it's worth noting that those guys have a total of zero rings between them.

Obviously you trade the pick if you can get a superstar like Cousins or Butler or George.

I, and most others on this thread, just dont see that happening.

[max215]

Does anyone think there was a promise to Hortford that more was going to happen?

Whether that was to sign Durant or cash in some of our picks.

He came here to try to win a title, so I don't know about a promise per se, but I'd imagine he wasn't sold on Markelle Fultz and DeAndre Ayton.

[max215]

As for me, I tend to favor keeping the picks (much more so 17 than 18), but if you can bring in an MVP-caliber player, I'll deal with it.